iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 9h

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following a 1-2 start, the Rams have finally fallen far enough that the 3-0 Bills are matching their SB odds. Interestingly, if we remove SF, the top 5 remaining teams are the exact same top 5 as the start of the season. SF jumped up from 12th to 4th in 3 weeks

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 9h

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: BAL -11.5 vs TEN 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: CIN -2.5 vs JAX 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: JAX @ CIN (51.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: PIT @ CLE (38.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11h

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are well on their way to crushing a ton of these lines. This season is 17.6% over, and the Chiefs already have 25% of the line in 7 of these 15 stats, and over 20% in an additional 5. If Worthy and Jones could step it up a bit, we'd be all greens here.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11h

Using @ftnfantasy.com's pressure data, here are the top 20 rookies, sorted by sacks, then total pressures, then earned pressures. Bailey with 4 sacks! RMT with two, but 8 pressures, all earned Caleb Downs?! Nice UDFA Wesley Bailey at 7 Yes, JAX has two BTJ's Howell with 9 pressures Rueben Bain?? 🤷‍♂️

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 12h

New graphic! Getting to the Quarterback. @ftnfantasy.com tracks pressures by pressure type for each player on every play. Here are all of the Chiefs pressures by type through week 3. Rookie R Mason Thomas leads with 2 sacks and 8 pressures. All 8 were earned, no unblocked or cleanups.

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Mitchell Schwartz @mitchschwartz71.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Defenses FEAR Kenneth Walker. This video shows how his presence (and the Chiefs improved run game) continues to change the defensive structure, and how KC is capitalizing: youtu.be/f4RjG6WI558

youtu.be

Defenses FEAR Kenneth Walker

YouTube video by Mitchell Schwartz

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Chiefs Coverage Unit Alignment! Delane played his first full NFL game. He lined up outside 83% of the time, and in the box for 10 snaps. Nohl Williams was 93% outside corner L'Jarius Sneed lined up mostly in the slot, with some box snaps. PFF credits him with giving up 2 catches for 24 yards.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Chiefs Receiving Alignment Charts! Kelce led the team with the most passing snaps, though only two (very impactful!) catches. Worthy with 26 pass snaps. Mostly outside WR. Rice was 60/40 outside/slot. 7 catches, 88 yards Thornton remains out wide. Low numbers, but impactful targets.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Chiefs ran play action on 58% of their dropbacks in their win over the Dolphins yesterday. That's tied for the second-highest play action rate since the start of 2025.

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Matt McMullen @kcchiefsmatt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Ken Walker, by himself, currently has more rushing yards than all but three teams (other than the Chiefs) entering Week 3. Pretty good!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! Mahomes is on pace for 42.5 passing TD's, which is his most since his 50 TD rookie season Kelce is on pace to break his own TE receiving yards record (1,417) Walker is on pace to shatter the rushing yards total 🤣 Need Worthy and Jones to step up so its all green!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

🎤 Taps mic: Is this thing on? Testing… testing… 1, 2. Sooooo..... Some of you may remember my old Formations app, which used NFL Participation data before the NFL ditched it. Well, @ftnfantasy.com changed that. Jefe’s Team Personnel is live! www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...

jefeshandiwork.com

Jefe's Team Personnel

NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 22/09/2026

FTN brings you great data! There's so much more than this, and you should contact us to find out how you can use it.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Someone post this on Twitter for me so the people over there know what they're missing!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

jefeshandiwork.com

Jefe's Team Personnel

NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 22/09/2026

🚨🚨 UPDATE RELEASED 🚨🚨 nflfastR package 📦 v6.0.0 is now live on CRAN. Updates include -- a completely revamped database function update_pbp_db, -- full support for 2026 pbp data, -- various bugfixes, and -- lots of improvements to the stats function calculate_stats()

nflfastR 6.0.0
CRAN release: 2026-09-18

New
Added new function update_pbp_db(), a fresh approach to the database helper. (#544)
Breaking changes and deprecation
nflfastR stopped supporting the 1999 and 2000 seasons because of inconsistent data sources. Data is still available through load_pbp() but we will not fix any issues related to those old seasons anymore. It’s possible to install nflfastR v5.2.0 (with pak::pak("nflverse/nflfastR@v5.2.0")) to parse those seasons if necessary. (#568)
nflfastR now loads raw play-by-play data from season based releases in the nflverse/nflverse-pbp GitHub repository. The legacy repository nflverse/nflfastR-raw is deprecated and won’t update in future seasons. This means that previous nflfastR versions won’t be able to download 2026+ seasons! (#589)
The legacy player stats functions calculate_player_stats*() have been deprecated in 2024 with the release of nflfastR 5.0. They are now defunct and calling them will throw an error. (#590)

Minor changes and improvements
Added "game_id" to the output calculate_stats() if summary_level == "week". (#566)
Fixed a bug where fixed_drive did not increment after a muffed blocked field goal attempt. Yes this happened in "2025_10_NO_CAR", play id 2504. (#567)
Implemented a fresh approach to compute play_type based on play_type_nfl for faster and more consistent output. (#568)
Fixed a bug where nflfastR overwrote the kickoff_attempt variable in the event of a penalty on a kickoff. (#569)
Added various definitions of ‘explosive’ plays to the output of calculate_stats(). It counts passes, runs, and receptions with 10+, 20+, 40+ yards gained as well as 12+ yard runs and 16+ yard passes. (#573)
Added several punting stats to the output of calculate_stats(). (#574)
Added overall fumble counters to the output of calculate_stats() because it was missing some edge case fumbles on offense. (#575)
The play_type variable now possibly shows "pass" or "run" on 2 point conversion plays with a post-snap penalty enforced between downs. This is different from play_type_nfl (which will show "PENALTY" in these cases). (#579)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted fumble recoveries in fumble_recovery_yards_own and fumble_recovery_yards_opp instead of the corresponding yards. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted some blocked punts as punt attempts that officially do not count as punt attempts. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() overcounted first downs in some edge cases. (#587)
Updated teams_colors_logos after 2026 Titans and Rams rebrandings. (#592)
Added defensive blocked kicks and 2 point attempts to the output of calculate_stats(). (#596)
Fixed bug that led to missing pbp related team stats in calculate_stats() because an internal function did not standardize team abbreviations. (#599)
Thank you to @jdpretorius123, @JoeMarino2021, @lancejames35, @naymikm, @rayrosales66, and @TheMathNinja for their questions, feedback, and contributions towards this release.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

KC Week 2 Defensive Pillboxes!! Fulton and Sneed took turns not playing downs at times. Cochrane playing over Bassa. Mostly plays early downs. Tonga with a lot of snaps. Woods still mostly playing early downs. FAU and RMT with heavy workloads first half, but much lighter second half.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

KC Week 2 Pillboxes!! Tonga at the top. DL who Reid is playing as a FB for "reasons", and we love it. Got the carry on a 4th down. 4 plays with 6 OL + Tonga. WR Royals the only WR in on those plays. Walker getting insane workload in both pass and run. Gray gets almost no late down work.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following an eviseration of the Giants on MNF, the Rams have maintained their top spot here. The Bills are creeping closer to the Rams, with +1.9 this week. The 49ers have the second biggest jump, with +1.4 The Chargers dropped a full -2.1 percentage points!

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Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 22/09/2026

The NFC West is very good

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Chiefs coverage! Week 2 Gilman, Hicks, Williams, Bolton, Fulton, Cochrane. All with 10+ coverage snaps. All allowed less than 10 yards and no TD's. L'Jarius Sneed: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD 😬 What a rough week after a pretty good week 1

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Chiefs Pass Catchers, Week 2! Worthy mostly lined up wide. 5 receptions for 25 yards 😬 Thats a worse YPA than Walker had rushing. Kelce with a hell of a game. Rice was solid, though 31 yards was just padding to end the half. TyGOD Thornton. Whew. Ok, and K9. Good god...

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Ken Tremendous @kentremendous.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I wish there were a single sentence that could simultaneously encapsulate and explain every single problem we have in modern society.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The Chiefs are never beating the allegations. *(but it’s the right call)*

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Mitchell Schwartz @mitchschwartz71.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Here's my videos from the week to get caught up on this weekend: Kahlil Benson: youtu.be/o1vZoBJfmEU Kenneth Walker + Run Game: youtu.be/2WxA-CN-aDY R Mason Thomas: youtu.be/JjGEf3mIk70 Emmett Johnson: youtu.be/o1s32L9pBtY Jaylon Moore: youtu.be/pftGQnXUWU4

youtu.be

Kahlil Benson, Left Tackle of the Future?! (3% Pressure Rate?)

YouTube video by Mitchell Schwartz

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Week 1 Personnel Groupings at a glance! TB leads in 11 personnel SF has the lowest 11p, but the highest 21p LAR leads in 13p. They like their 3 TE sets. PHI only has 1 single snap that wasn't 11p or 12p. *Personnel Grouping: First digit = RBs, second = TEs; remaining players are WRs

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟮 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: SF -13.5 vs MIA 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -2.5 vs CIN 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DET @ BUF (54.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: PHI @ TEN (39.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Matt Lombardo @mattlombardo.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Kenneth Walker was built to be the focal point of Chiefs 2.0 and he’s the ideal back to capitalize on Kansas City’s brand of offense. In Week 1, Walker’s 173 rushing yards were more than 28 TEAMS posted. Andy Reid and KC are adapting. Kenneth Walker is a big reason why.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Rams remain favorites, but dropped by 2.8 percentage points Ravens took over the #2 spot from the Bills 49ers with a full 1.3 percentage point boost Chargers and Patriots both dropped several spots Cards beat the brakes off the Chargers, but are still 2nd worst 🤷‍♂️

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The Chiefs secondary faced 51 total snaps, and 34 coverage snaps. Gilman was primarily FS Hicks split between box safety and free Fulton lined up outside Sneed in the slot CRW only took a few snaps, but he lined up in the box more than anywhere else Delane was outside for his 3 snaps before injury

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The Chiefs receivers struggled mightily against perhaps the best secondary in the NFL, but let's talk about how they were lined up (per PFF). Rice split pretty evenly between wide and in the slot Worthy was primarily slot Kelce was slot Thornton was wide Cyrus Allen isn't listed for some reason 🤷‍♂️

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 15/09/2026

Quick Reads, the top players of the week by DYAR, is now updated with MNF. Bo Nix is this week's bottom quarterback. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-1-q...

ftnfantasy.com

Week 1 Quick Reads: Quarterbacks Hummin'

Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams were among the QBs with big games in Week 1.

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Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Yards gained on explosive runs (10+ yards): Kareem Hunt in 2025: 145 Isiah Pacheco in 2025: 117 Kenneth Walker tonight: 113

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Wow. Just wow. I did not expect to see the game I saw tonight. Holy shit. Fuck yeah, Chiefs! Hello, Kenneth Walker III, SB MVP!!!

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Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Shoutout to Laura Rutledge for explaining what the charges against Jonathan Cooper were for—not something you always see on broadcasts.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I do love these stat padding “passing” TD’s.

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Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Patrick Mahomes hasn’t completed a pass over ten yards and the Chiefs have 31 points. Alarming, Denver!

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Matt McMullen @kcchiefsmatt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

KC has held Denver to 2-of-11 on third down tonight.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Have the Rams left for Australia yet, or is McVay still waiting so he can get that competitive advantage? Just checking.

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Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 10/09/2026

WE'RE LIVE rbsdm.com/stats/box_sc...

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Here are the Super Bowl odds just prior to the beginning of the season. Rams are massive favorites to win the Super Bowl, then the Ravens and Bills are tied at 2 and 3. Will Vegas get it right this year, or will we have surprise teams for a second season in a row?

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The NFL season kicks off tonight with a Super Bowl rematch! 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: LAC -9.5 vs ARI 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: MIN -1.5 vs GB 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: TB @ CIN (50.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: NYJ @ TEN (38.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/09/2026

PSA: The first game of the year is always a wildcard for #nflverse. Please be patient if you try to access play-by-play data. I am fairly confident that our pipeline works but I can’t guarantee.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/09/2026

Using the market implied team strength, we can also plot each team's opponent team strength over their schedule. I know this viz is overkill but it's fun to look at

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/09/2026

Happy #NFL kickoff day! I looked at the betting markets and determined the implied probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_te...

A table of implied NFL betting market probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule before the start of the 2026 season.

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