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Joseph Hefner

@josephjefe.bsky.social
1.8K followers 196 following 1.4K posts

You'll see mostly Chiefs and NFL analytics and graphics here. I produce work for @KCSportsNetwork. JosephJefe on most social media platforms Website: www.JefesHandiwork.com

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15h
Chiefs Pass Catchers! Tyquan with 8 targets, 5 receptions, 111 yards, 2 TD's, and one brutally dislocated ankle 😢 He spent 66% of his routes out wide, and 33% in the slot. Worthy was the only other pass catcher to break 20 yards. He had the same wide/slot distribution as Worthy, as did Royals.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15h
Thanks to @chefnewgaard.bsky.social for pointing out I'd posted the wrong graphic on the previous attempt at this post.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15h
Chiefs Defensive Alignments vs Raiders Fulton the only DB who logged 0 slot snaps, though Sneed handled 59% of them, giving up 89 yards and 8 catches. Nick Bolton had a bad day. I assume most of that came against the TE's, who ate the Chiefs D alive. Shoutout Nwankpa for the INT to seal the game!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15h
Ooof!! Thanks for catching that! I uploaded the wrong graphic! Will delete and retry.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 16h
Yeah they should. R Mason Thomas got quite a few himself. And at least one sack was nullified by penalty (Sneed, holding).
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 16h
I'm guessing Worthy will likely get his receiving yards now, given the injuries to both Rice and Thornton this week. Chris Jones and the entire Chiefs defensive line needs to start converting their good pressure numbers into real sacks.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 16h
Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are 4-0, and 38% of the way to their 10.5 wins line going into a bye week. Mahomes is on track to throw for 700+ more than his line, and 13+ more TD's. Walker is already at 57% of his season rushing yards line, and 53% of his rushing TD line.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Bump for Sunday!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
He's mostly playing on neutral or rushing downs. I know you filtered this to pass rush snaps, but even on those, he's mostly playing a contain role, not a pass rush role. He's almost entirely limited to first and second downs right now. And yes, that is worrisome.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
You can find personnel groupings like this for all the games on my website (and several other apps as well). Data for this app comes from @nflverse.com and @ftnfantasy.com. Here's a direct link to the Team Personnel Groupings app: www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...
jefeshandiwork.com
Jefe's Team Personnel
NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Here's Miami's personnel groupings, if you're interested!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Chiefs defense spent the majority of their time in a 4-2-5 look (45%) or 4-3-4 base look (30%). When they were in 4-2-5, they crushed the Dolphins. EPA/play of -0.27, 27% success rate. They dominated on those snaps. Peter Woods pretty much only plays on neutral or rushing downs, same as Tonga.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Team Personnel! The Chiefs were in 11 personnel only 40% of the time vs Miami, with 12p making up another 33%. 11p success rate was just 48%, while 12p was 65m (and a whopping 0.55 EPA/play!). 50% of Emmett Johnson's 14 snaps were 12p. Thornton basically only plays in 11p.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
You can get game previews like this for your own teams via my app at the link below! Tag me in them if you post them here! Link: www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/game-p...
jefeshandiwork.com
Game Preview Cards
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Game Preview Card for KC@LV Both teams are 3-0, both are averaging 29.3 PPG. LV has +5 net turnovers. KC +3 The Chiefs stats are green on offense and defense, excepting pass rate. The Raiders defense is fully green, while their offense has had significant struggles rushing the ball.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following a 1-2 start, the Rams have finally fallen far enough that the 3-0 Bills are matching their SB odds. Interestingly, if we remove SF, the top 5 remaining teams are the exact same top 5 as the start of the season. SF jumped up from 12th to 4th in 3 weeks
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: BAL -11.5 vs TEN 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: CIN -2.5 vs JAX 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: JAX @ CIN (51.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: PIT @ CLE (38.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀
Graphic showing NFL Week 4 betting odds by matchup. Games are grouped by day of the week and listed chronologically. For each game, the away team logo appears on the left, followed by a stacked bar showing win probability percentages for both teams, then the home team logo, the betting spread for the favorite, total points line, and expected scores based on the totals and spread.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are well on their way to crushing a ton of these lines. This season is 17.6% over, and the Chiefs already have 25% of the line in 7 of these 15 stats, and over 20% in an additional 5. If Worthy and Jones could step it up a bit, we'd be all greens here.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Using @ftnfantasy.com's pressure data, here are the top 20 rookies, sorted by sacks, then total pressures, then earned pressures. Bailey with 4 sacks! RMT with two, but 8 pressures, all earned Caleb Downs?! Nice UDFA Wesley Bailey at 7 Yes, JAX has two BTJ's Howell with 9 pressures Rueben Bain?? 🤷‍♂️
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
If you're asking what kind of juice I prefer, orange juice is a classic, obviously. But pineapple juice is excellent and underrated. Very good on its own, but exceptional as a mixer.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
New graphic! Getting to the Quarterback. @ftnfantasy.com tracks pressures by pressure type for each player on every play. Here are all of the Chiefs pressures by type through week 3. Rookie R Mason Thomas leads with 2 sacks and 8 pressures. All 8 were earned, no unblocked or cleanups.
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Mitchell Schwartz @mitchschwartz71.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Defenses FEAR Kenneth Walker. This video shows how his presence (and the Chiefs improved run game) continues to change the defensive structure, and how KC is capitalizing: youtu.be/f4RjG6WI558
youtu.be
Defenses FEAR Kenneth Walker
YouTube video by Mitchell Schwartz
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I made it last year, but honestly, I probably stopped posting it after the season went down the tank. It's also mostly useful for early in the season, when we don't yet know what roles players will play. Mostly, they'll stick to their current roles for the season, barring injury.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Chiefs Coverage Unit Alignment! Delane played his first full NFL game. He lined up outside 83% of the time, and in the box for 10 snaps. Nohl Williams was 93% outside corner L'Jarius Sneed lined up mostly in the slot, with some box snaps. PFF credits him with giving up 2 catches for 24 yards.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Chiefs Receiving Alignment Charts! Kelce led the team with the most passing snaps, though only two (very impactful!) catches. Worthy with 26 pass snaps. Mostly outside WR. Rice was 60/40 outside/slot. 7 catches, 88 yards Thornton remains out wide. Low numbers, but impactful targets.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Chiefs ran play action on 58% of their dropbacks in their win over the Dolphins yesterday. That's tied for the second-highest play action rate since the start of 2025.
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Matt McMullen @kcchiefsmatt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Ken Walker, by himself, currently has more rushing yards than all but three teams (other than the Chiefs) entering Week 3. Pretty good!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Do you mean the records I mention in the post (Kelces receiving yards record and the rushing yards record)? Those are honestly incidental to the point of the graphic, which is to track team and player expectations from prior to the season.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
(deleted previous post because I added the logos and headshots and thought it was a good enough change to repost it instead of waiting till next week)
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I grabbed the DraftKings lines on September 8th, prior to the start of the season. Those were the only Futures they had. Sadly, nothing for Rice. The Benchmarks are just the average of the past three years of Chiefs stats (2023-2025). Wanted to track if they're looking better or worse this year.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Betting Lines and Benchmarks! Mahomes is on pace for 42.5 passing TD's, which is his most since his 50 TD rookie season Kelce is on pace to break his own TE receiving yards record (1,417) Walker is on pace to shatter the rushing yards total 🤣 Need Worthy and Jones to step up so its all green!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
🎤 Taps mic: Is this thing on? Testing… testing… 1, 2. Sooooo..... Some of you may remember my old Formations app, which used NFL Participation data before the NFL ditched it. Well, @ftnfantasy.com changed that. Jefe’s Team Personnel is live! www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...
jefeshandiwork.com
Jefe's Team Personnel
NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The route data for the routes a player ran on plays where he *wasn't* targeted is my current obsession.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 22/09/2026
FTN brings you great data! There's so much more than this, and you should contact us to find out how you can use it.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Yeah, pretty much. The 1-1-1 and 1-0-1 personnel here are carrying a lot of that overall EPA. Tonga won't show here because it only shows the skill players (RB, TE, WR), sadly.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Someone post this on Twitter for me so the people over there know what they're missing!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
FTN now tracks players on a snap-by-snap basis, so I gave the old app a new name and a facelift. It lets you dig into team personnel and formations using the new FTN data. Check out all my apps on my website here: www.jefeshandiwork.com
jefeshandiwork.com
Jefe’s Handiwork
Joseph Hefner’s personal website. Mostly football stats and graphics
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
🎤 Taps mic: Is this thing on? Testing… testing… 1, 2. Sooooo..... Some of you may remember my old Formations app, which used NFL Participation data before the NFL ditched it. Well, @ftnfantasy.com changed that. Jefe’s Team Personnel is live! www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...
jefeshandiwork.com
Jefe's Team Personnel
NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.
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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 22/09/2026
🚨🚨 UPDATE RELEASED 🚨🚨 nflfastR package 📦 v6.0.0 is now live on CRAN. Updates include -- a completely revamped database function update_pbp_db, -- full support for 2026 pbp data, -- various bugfixes, and -- lots of improvements to the stats function calculate_stats()
nflfastR 6.0.0
CRAN release: 2026-09-18

New
Added new function update_pbp_db(), a fresh approach to the database helper. (#544)
Breaking changes and deprecation
nflfastR stopped supporting the 1999 and 2000 seasons because of inconsistent data sources. Data is still available through load_pbp() but we will not fix any issues related to those old seasons anymore. It’s possible to install nflfastR v5.2.0 (with pak::pak("nflverse/nflfastR@v5.2.0")) to parse those seasons if necessary. (#568)
nflfastR now loads raw play-by-play data from season based releases in the nflverse/nflverse-pbp GitHub repository. The legacy repository nflverse/nflfastR-raw is deprecated and won’t update in future seasons. This means that previous nflfastR versions won’t be able to download 2026+ seasons! (#589)
The legacy player stats functions calculate_player_stats*() have been deprecated in 2024 with the release of nflfastR 5.0. They are now defunct and calling them will throw an error. (#590)Minor changes and improvements
Added "game_id" to the output calculate_stats() if summary_level == "week". (#566)
Fixed a bug where fixed_drive did not increment after a muffed blocked field goal attempt. Yes this happened in "2025_10_NO_CAR", play id 2504. (#567)
Implemented a fresh approach to compute play_type based on play_type_nfl for faster and more consistent output. (#568)
Fixed a bug where nflfastR overwrote the kickoff_attempt variable in the event of a penalty on a kickoff. (#569)
Added various definitions of ‘explosive’ plays to the output of calculate_stats(). It counts passes, runs, and receptions with 10+, 20+, 40+ yards gained as well as 12+ yard runs and 16+ yard passes. (#573)
Added several punting stats to the output of calculate_stats(). (#574)
Added overall fumble counters to the output of calculate_stats() because it was missing some edge case fumbles on offense. (#575)
The play_type variable now possibly shows "pass" or "run" on 2 point conversion plays with a post-snap penalty enforced between downs. This is different from play_type_nfl (which will show "PENALTY" in these cases). (#579)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted fumble recoveries in fumble_recovery_yards_own and fumble_recovery_yards_opp instead of the corresponding yards. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted some blocked punts as punt attempts that officially do not count as punt attempts. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() overcounted first downs in some edge cases. (#587)
Updated teams_colors_logos after 2026 Titans and Rams rebrandings. (#592)
Added defensive blocked kicks and 2 point attempts to the output of calculate_stats(). (#596)
Fixed bug that led to missing pbp related team stats in calculate_stats() because an internal function did not standardize team abbreviations. (#599)
Thank you to @jdpretorius123, @JoeMarino2021, @lancejames35, @naymikm, @rayrosales66, and @TheMathNinja for their questions, feedback, and contributions towards this release.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
KC Week 2 Defensive Pillboxes!! Fulton and Sneed took turns not playing downs at times. Cochrane playing over Bassa. Mostly plays early downs. Tonga with a lot of snaps. Woods still mostly playing early downs. FAU and RMT with heavy workloads first half, but much lighter second half.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
KC Week 2 Pillboxes!! Tonga at the top. DL who Reid is playing as a FB for "reasons", and we love it. Got the carry on a 4th down. 4 plays with 6 OL + Tonga. WR Royals the only WR in on those plays. Walker getting insane workload in both pass and run. Gray gets almost no late down work.
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Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The 49ers are on pace to go 17-0 and lose 34 wide receivers. Who will Brock Purdy be throwing to in Week 18?
lateral-thinking.ghost.io
The Full, Extended 49ers Wide Receiver Depth Chart
The 49ers are on pace to go 17-0 and lose 34 wide receivers. Who will Brock Purdy be throwing to in Week 18?
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following an eviseration of the Giants on MNF, the Rams have maintained their top spot here. The Bills are creeping closer to the Rams, with +1.9 this week. The 49ers have the second biggest jump, with +1.4 The Chargers dropped a full -2.1 percentage points!
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
AFC West has one in each of the top four categories! Perfect distribution!
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Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 22/09/2026
The NFC West is very good
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Feels weird not to have a Chiefs rusher on this list.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Chiefs coverage! Week 2 Gilman, Hicks, Williams, Bolton, Fulton, Cochrane. All with 10+ coverage snaps. All allowed less than 10 yards and no TD's. L'Jarius Sneed: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD 😬 What a rough week after a pretty good week 1
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Chiefs Pass Catchers, Week 2! Worthy mostly lined up wide. 5 receptions for 25 yards 😬 Thats a worse YPA than Walker had rushing. Kelce with a hell of a game. Rice was solid, though 31 yards was just padding to end the half. TyGOD Thornton. Whew. Ok, and K9. Good god...
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Ken Tremendous @kentremendous.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I wish there were a single sentence that could simultaneously encapsulate and explain every single problem we have in modern society.
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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I rescind my statement.
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