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Seth Walder

@sethwalder.bsky.social
48K followers 304 following 2.7K posts

ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What changed between the 4th and 1 and the 4th and 5? Three minutes passed, yes. But the 4th and 1 was at the Eagles 49. One thing we've noticed is that some coaches become irrationally conservative even slightly in their own territory.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Passing up 4th and a long 1 so you can go on 4th and 5 three minutes later
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
by the way we have 4th and 6 as a green light go if that gives you an indication on what they should have done on 4th and a long 1
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Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
a failed 4th down attempt at the 2-yard line is basically the equivalent of the greatest punt your punter has ever punted, but also gave your team the opportunity to try to score a touchdown
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
so many coaches think: "with a backup QB gotta kick." Ben Johnson has it right. With a backup QB, this might be your best chance at a second TD. And you need more variance, anyway. Go for it.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I'm not convinced the guy who ultimately got to the ball didn't touch the goalline. Those guys always come flying in and don't need to!
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Bears have a good running game and Case Keenum is starting tonight. I’m curious what people think: What is the probability their EPA per dropback tonight is higher than their EPA per designed run?
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I wrote about the J.J. McCarthy trade: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Browns were part of the origin story of PRWR. When Brian first made it, there was no time element. First time he checked results, Joe Thomas showed up very poorly. You don't want to results-chase, but that was a red flag. Realized: Thomas was blocking for DeShone Kizer, who held the ball forever.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Through Week 2, the Eagles had 16 plays where Jalen Hurts was pressured but no defenders earned a pass rush win on the play -- easily most in the NFL. The Eagles offensive line is getting beat, but it matters a lot how quickly they get beat.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Chiefs ran play action on 58% of their dropbacks in their win over the Dolphins yesterday. That's tied for the second-highest play action rate since the start of 2025.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Vikings had a 16% success rate on dropbacks in their win over the Buccaneers. That's the third-worst passing success rate game since the start of 2025.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Most pass rush wins, Week 5 1. Will Anderson Jr., Texans 2. Josh Hines-Allen, Jaguars T3. Brandon Dorlus, Falcons T3. Maason Smith, Falcons 5. Cameron Thomas, Falcons
static.klipy.com
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Stafford and Mumpfield strike back with Riley Moss gambling on initial cut. DOTS.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Hufanga go-ahead pick-six, dots! (NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
big yikes
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Joe Burrow recorded a career-high 95.4 QBR in today's loss to the Steelers.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Drake Maye's 15.5 QBR today is the third-worst of his career and the worst since his rookie season.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
pretty ideal for cowboys that fluornoy was short by a yard. let's them pick up an easy 2nd and 1 to burn clock with almost no downs risk
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
it's No. 7-ranked backup quarterback Jalon Daniels time www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
need more jevon holland post game interviews in my life
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Kicking to go up 6 is a trap! Browns made right call.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
EVERYTHING IS HAPPENING
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
On the Wilson catch? I don't think so. Challenges are less useful than they used to be because of replay assist. And 1st-and-goal at 1 is not a guaranteed TD. Don't forget about penalties!
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Aaron Glenn passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
roughing the passer, physics, 15 yards
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
awful 4th down decision for Chargers here. Breakeven number -- the conversion probability needed to justify going for it -- was just 25%. 25%!!
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
by the by, the Chargers second kick on 4th-and-3 was totally fine! that area of the field is a sweet spot for kicking FGs. It's where chance of FG hitting is still very high but chance of TD if you convert 4th down isn't that high. You can see this in generic 4th down chart on right!
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Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Also if you’re going to kick it, why run on 3rd and 5? Odd mix of play calling and game management there
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
this is one of those where people say "two-possession lead" when you're way too early to think that way. It's about point maximization and kicking isn't it.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
football gods made james cook fumble as penance for those uniforms
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
There are no sack overs in this week's column, but more props have gone up since I filed yesterday. These won't count toward the story, but here's a couple of bonus sack overs that my model has an over: Arden Key over 0.25 sacks (+158) Josh Sweat over 0.25 sacks (+276)
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
if you like betting on sacks to not happen HAVE I GOT SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR YOU www.espn.com/espn/betting...
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I just added defensive props to our Week 3 best bets column! www.espn.com/espn/betting...
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
4th down page hasn't flipped over to Week 3 yet but rest assured: the Packers should have gone for it (before the penalty)
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Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
how many NFL teams have had three QBs throw interceptions by Week 3
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
steeling myself for the monumental injustice that would be Survivor being ranked outside the top 10
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The three worst players in rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats: Quinshon Judkins, -28 MarShawn Lloyd, -25 Jacory Croskey-Merritt, -25
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Top 10 players by pass rush wins this season. -Jeffery Simmons, dear god -Dallas Turner has arrived -Boye Mafe being what Bengals need, keeping up PRWR with expanded playing time! -I thought Bradley Chubb was totally washed and was very critical of that signing. Looking like a bad take!
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We have kick if it's 4th-and-6 or longer
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Chiefs should have called timeout after first down. (I know easy to say after seeing 3rd down but they should have -- Colts are not time-constrainted right now. Chiefs are for next possession!)
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Commanders should go for 2! Down 8 rule, plus a field goal.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
oh my god
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
154 total air yards (complete + incomplete) for Adonai Mitchell today, per Next Gen Stats.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Interesting game of timeout chicken. Jets scared Packers were going to go for it and didn't want to call TO. But Packers were bluffing.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Model didn't like it. But it also doesn't know they're facing Tyson Bagent in the rain (it can't adjust for in-game QB change) so can't hate on it like I normally would I don't think
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Packers should go for 2. They're right at hte starting point of the down 4 go for 2 range.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Model preferred Jets go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Packers 9
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Delayed here but yes: this was a horrible decision by the Texans. 25 percentage point difference between the breakeven rate and conversion probability! You can't justify kicking here.
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