Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026What changed between the 4th and 1 and the 4th and 5? Three minutes passed, yes. But the 4th and 1 was at the Eagles 49. One thing we've noticed is that some coaches become irrationally conservative even slightly in their own territory. 1342
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Passing up 4th and a long 1 so you can go on 4th and 5 three minutes later 49710
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026by the way we have 4th and 6 as a green light go if that gives you an indication on what they should have done on 4th and a long 1 2686
Reposted by Seth WalderRodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026a failed 4th down attempt at the 2-yard line is basically the equivalent of the greatest punt your punter has ever punted, but also gave your team the opportunity to try to score a touchdown 41297
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026so many coaches think: "with a backup QB gotta kick." Ben Johnson has it right. With a backup QB, this might be your best chance at a second TD. And you need more variance, anyway. Go for it. 3552
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I'm not convinced the guy who ultimately got to the ball didn't touch the goalline. Those guys always come flying in and don't need to! 8280
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The Bears have a good running game and Case Keenum is starting tonight. I’m curious what people think: What is the probability their EPA per dropback tonight is higher than their EPA per designed run? 2140
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026I wrote about the J.J. McCarthy trade: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/... 0160
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Browns were part of the origin story of PRWR. When Brian first made it, there was no time element. First time he checked results, Joe Thomas showed up very poorly. You don't want to results-chase, but that was a red flag. Realized: Thomas was blocking for DeShone Kizer, who held the ball forever. 1130
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Through Week 2, the Eagles had 16 plays where Jalen Hurts was pressured but no defenders earned a pass rush win on the play -- easily most in the NFL. The Eagles offensive line is getting beat, but it matters a lot how quickly they get beat. 1150
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The Chiefs ran play action on 58% of their dropbacks in their win over the Dolphins yesterday. That's tied for the second-highest play action rate since the start of 2025. 1161
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The Vikings had a 16% success rate on dropbacks in their win over the Buccaneers. That's the third-worst passing success rate game since the start of 2025. 2191
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Most pass rush wins, Week 5 1. Will Anderson Jr., Texans 2. Josh Hines-Allen, Jaguars T3. Brandon Dorlus, Falcons T3. Maason Smith, Falcons 5. Cameron Thomas, Falconsstatic.klipy.com 2302
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Stafford and Mumpfield strike back with Riley Moss gambling on initial cut. DOTS. 1161
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Hufanga go-ahead pick-six, dots! (NFL Next Gen Stats) 0193
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Joe Burrow recorded a career-high 95.4 QBR in today's loss to the Steelers. 4280
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Drake Maye's 15.5 QBR today is the third-worst of his career and the worst since his rookie season. 1322
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026pretty ideal for cowboys that fluornoy was short by a yard. let's them pick up an easy 2nd and 1 to burn clock with almost no downs risk 1120
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026it's No. 7-ranked backup quarterback Jalon Daniels time www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/... 2160
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026need more jevon holland post game interviews in my life 1230
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Kicking to go up 6 is a trap! Browns made right call. 1210
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026On the Wilson catch? I don't think so. Challenges are less useful than they used to be because of replay assist. And 1st-and-goal at 1 is not a guaranteed TD. Don't forget about penalties! 2181
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026awful 4th down decision for Chargers here. Breakeven number -- the conversion probability needed to justify going for it -- was just 25%. 25%!! 3241
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026by the by, the Chargers second kick on 4th-and-3 was totally fine! that area of the field is a sweet spot for kicking FGs. It's where chance of FG hitting is still very high but chance of TD if you convert 4th down isn't that high. You can see this in generic 4th down chart on right! 1110
Reposted by Seth WalderMina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Also if you’re going to kick it, why run on 3rd and 5? Odd mix of play calling and game management there 41325
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026this is one of those where people say "two-possession lead" when you're way too early to think that way. It's about point maximization and kicking isn't it. 5200
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026football gods made james cook fumble as penance for those uniforms 3313
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026There are no sack overs in this week's column, but more props have gone up since I filed yesterday. These won't count toward the story, but here's a couple of bonus sack overs that my model has an over: Arden Key over 0.25 sacks (+158) Josh Sweat over 0.25 sacks (+276) 020
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026if you like betting on sacks to not happen HAVE I GOT SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR YOU www.espn.com/espn/betting... 471
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 26/09/2026I just added defensive props to our Week 3 best bets column! www.espn.com/espn/betting... 031
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 25/09/20264th down page hasn't flipped over to Week 3 yet but rest assured: the Packers should have gone for it (before the penalty) 1172
Reposted by Seth WalderRodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026how many NFL teams have had three QBs throw interceptions by Week 3 1326121
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026steeling myself for the monumental injustice that would be Survivor being ranked outside the top 10 3110
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The three worst players in rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats: Quinshon Judkins, -28 MarShawn Lloyd, -25 Jacory Croskey-Merritt, -25 3293
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Top 10 players by pass rush wins this season. -Jeffery Simmons, dear god -Dallas Turner has arrived -Boye Mafe being what Bengals need, keeping up PRWR with expanded playing time! -I thought Bradley Chubb was totally washed and was very critical of that signing. Looking like a bad take! 3444
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Chiefs should have called timeout after first down. (I know easy to say after seeing 3rd down but they should have -- Colts are not time-constrainted right now. Chiefs are for next possession!) 1230
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Commanders should go for 2! Down 8 rule, plus a field goal. 0200
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026154 total air yards (complete + incomplete) for Adonai Mitchell today, per Next Gen Stats. 1130
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Interesting game of timeout chicken. Jets scared Packers were going to go for it and didn't want to call TO. But Packers were bluffing. 5250
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Model didn't like it. But it also doesn't know they're facing Tyson Bagent in the rain (it can't adjust for in-game QB change) so can't hate on it like I normally would I don't think 2231
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Packers should go for 2. They're right at hte starting point of the down 4 go for 2 range. 1122
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Model preferred Jets go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Packers 9 1131
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Delayed here but yes: this was a horrible decision by the Texans. 25 percentage point difference between the breakeven rate and conversion probability! You can't justify kicking here. 1204
