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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Rookies Pressuring the Quarterback David Bailey leads all rookies with 3 sacks. Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs both with 2. R Mason Thomas with 1 sack, but leads all rookies with 16 pressures, 14 earned. Cashius Howell is second with 9 pressures, 7 earned, but 0 sacks, so doesn't show up here.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Trench Warfare Pressure data from Chiefs @ Raiders Goddamn, Karlaftis! Have yourself a day! R. Mason Thomas too Raiders left and right tackles were trash. Caliendo only gave up 2 pressures. Moore 5, Benson 3. 6 of those combined pressures came from Crosby. Pressure Data from @ftnfantasy.com

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟱 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: DAL -9.5 vs TB 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: CHI -2.5 @ GB 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: BUF @ LA (54.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: HOU @ TEN (37.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

NFC Seeding Chart 49ers at the top, Vikings at 2, both undefeated Ladies and Gentlemen: the New York Giants! At 4 is... the Panthers?! Sure enough! Saints the biggest fallers, from 4th to 14th. Falcons have been all over the bottom half of the board

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

AFC Seeding Chart Chiefs remain the rightful owners of the 1 seed Jags a surprising 2 seed Browns the biggest overall climbers, from 16 all the way to 4 Raiders only fell 1 spot following their loss Maybe I should add a Week 0 to this, with preseason Super Bowl odds, to give initial positions?

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Revamped this graphic to use comets! Lemme know what you think Rams reclaimed sole possession of the top spot after the Bills fell to the Pats Jags jumped a whopping 1.6 percentage points Eagles with biggest drop at -1.2 Chiefs back in top 5

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Chiefs Pass Catchers! Tyquan with 8 targets, 5 receptions, 111 yards, 2 TD's, and one brutally dislocated ankle 😢 He spent 66% of his routes out wide, and 33% in the slot. Worthy was the only other pass catcher to break 20 yards. He had the same wide/slot distribution as Worthy, as did Royals.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Chiefs Defensive Alignments vs Raiders Fulton the only DB who logged 0 slot snaps, though Sneed handled 59% of them, giving up 89 yards and 8 catches. Nick Bolton had a bad day. I assume most of that came against the TE's, who ate the Chiefs D alive. Shoutout Nwankpa for the INT to seal the game!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are 4-0, and 38% of the way to their 10.5 wins line going into a bye week. Mahomes is on track to throw for 700+ more than his line, and 13+ more TD's. Walker is already at 57% of his season rushing yards line, and 53% of his rushing TD line.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Here's Miami's personnel groupings, if you're interested!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The Chiefs defense spent the majority of their time in a 4-2-5 look (45%) or 4-3-4 base look (30%). When they were in 4-2-5, they crushed the Dolphins. EPA/play of -0.27, 27% success rate. They dominated on those snaps. Peter Woods pretty much only plays on neutral or rushing downs, same as Tonga.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Team Personnel! The Chiefs were in 11 personnel only 40% of the time vs Miami, with 12p making up another 33%. 11p success rate was just 48%, while 12p was 65m (and a whopping 0.55 EPA/play!). 50% of Emmett Johnson's 14 snaps were 12p. Thornton basically only plays in 11p.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Game Preview Card for KC@LV Both teams are 3-0, both are averaging 29.3 PPG. LV has +5 net turnovers. KC +3 The Chiefs stats are green on offense and defense, excepting pass rate. The Raiders defense is fully green, while their offense has had significant struggles rushing the ball.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following a 1-2 start, the Rams have finally fallen far enough that the 3-0 Bills are matching their SB odds. Interestingly, if we remove SF, the top 5 remaining teams are the exact same top 5 as the start of the season. SF jumped up from 12th to 4th in 3 weeks

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: BAL -11.5 vs TEN 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: CIN -2.5 vs JAX 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: JAX @ CIN (51.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: PIT @ CLE (38.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are well on their way to crushing a ton of these lines. This season is 17.6% over, and the Chiefs already have 25% of the line in 7 of these 15 stats, and over 20% in an additional 5. If Worthy and Jones could step it up a bit, we'd be all greens here.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Using @ftnfantasy.com's pressure data, here are the top 20 rookies, sorted by sacks, then total pressures, then earned pressures. Bailey with 4 sacks! RMT with two, but 8 pressures, all earned Caleb Downs?! Nice UDFA Wesley Bailey at 7 Yes, JAX has two BTJ's Howell with 9 pressures Rueben Bain?? 🤷‍♂️

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

New graphic! Getting to the Quarterback. @ftnfantasy.com tracks pressures by pressure type for each player on every play. Here are all of the Chiefs pressures by type through week 3. Rookie R Mason Thomas leads with 2 sacks and 8 pressures. All 8 were earned, no unblocked or cleanups.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Chiefs Coverage Unit Alignment! Delane played his first full NFL game. He lined up outside 83% of the time, and in the box for 10 snaps. Nohl Williams was 93% outside corner L'Jarius Sneed lined up mostly in the slot, with some box snaps. PFF credits him with giving up 2 catches for 24 yards.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Chiefs Receiving Alignment Charts! Kelce led the team with the most passing snaps, though only two (very impactful!) catches. Worthy with 26 pass snaps. Mostly outside WR. Rice was 60/40 outside/slot. 7 catches, 88 yards Thornton remains out wide. Low numbers, but impactful targets.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! Mahomes is on pace for 42.5 passing TD's, which is his most since his 50 TD rookie season Kelce is on pace to break his own TE receiving yards record (1,417) Walker is on pace to shatter the rushing yards total 🤣 Need Worthy and Jones to step up so its all green!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Yeah, pretty much. The 1-1-1 and 1-0-1 personnel here are carrying a lot of that overall EPA. Tonga won't show here because it only shows the skill players (RB, TE, WR), sadly.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

KC Week 2 Defensive Pillboxes!! Fulton and Sneed took turns not playing downs at times. Cochrane playing over Bassa. Mostly plays early downs. Tonga with a lot of snaps. Woods still mostly playing early downs. FAU and RMT with heavy workloads first half, but much lighter second half.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

KC Week 2 Pillboxes!! Tonga at the top. DL who Reid is playing as a FB for "reasons", and we love it. Got the carry on a 4th down. 4 plays with 6 OL + Tonga. WR Royals the only WR in on those plays. Walker getting insane workload in both pass and run. Gray gets almost no late down work.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Following an eviseration of the Giants on MNF, the Rams have maintained their top spot here. The Bills are creeping closer to the Rams, with +1.9 this week. The 49ers have the second biggest jump, with +1.4 The Chargers dropped a full -2.1 percentage points!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Chiefs coverage! Week 2 Gilman, Hicks, Williams, Bolton, Fulton, Cochrane. All with 10+ coverage snaps. All allowed less than 10 yards and no TD's. L'Jarius Sneed: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD 😬 What a rough week after a pretty good week 1

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Chiefs Pass Catchers, Week 2! Worthy mostly lined up wide. 5 receptions for 25 yards 😬 Thats a worse YPA than Walker had rushing. Kelce with a hell of a game. Rice was solid, though 31 yards was just padding to end the half. TyGOD Thornton. Whew. Ok, and K9. Good god...

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Week 1 Personnel Groupings at a glance! TB leads in 11 personnel SF has the lowest 11p, but the highest 21p LAR leads in 13p. They like their 3 TE sets. PHI only has 1 single snap that wasn't 11p or 12p. *Personnel Grouping: First digit = RBs, second = TEs; remaining players are WRs

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟮 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: SF -13.5 vs MIA 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -2.5 vs CIN 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DET @ BUF (54.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: PHI @ TEN (39.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Rams remain favorites, but dropped by 2.8 percentage points Ravens took over the #2 spot from the Bills 49ers with a full 1.3 percentage point boost Chargers and Patriots both dropped several spots Cards beat the brakes off the Chargers, but are still 2nd worst 🤷‍♂️

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The Chiefs secondary faced 51 total snaps, and 34 coverage snaps. Gilman was primarily FS Hicks split between box safety and free Fulton lined up outside Sneed in the slot CRW only took a few snaps, but he lined up in the box more than anywhere else Delane was outside for his 3 snaps before injury

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The Chiefs receivers struggled mightily against perhaps the best secondary in the NFL, but let's talk about how they were lined up (per PFF). Rice split pretty evenly between wide and in the slot Worthy was primarily slot Kelce was slot Thornton was wide Cyrus Allen isn't listed for some reason 🤷‍♂️

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Here are the Super Bowl odds just prior to the beginning of the season. Rams are massive favorites to win the Super Bowl, then the Ravens and Bills are tied at 2 and 3. Will Vegas get it right this year, or will we have surprise teams for a second season in a row?

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The NFL season kicks off tonight with a Super Bowl rematch! 🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: LAC -9.5 vs ARI 🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: MIN -1.5 vs GB 💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: TB @ CIN (50.5 total) 😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: NYJ @ TEN (38.5 total) What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The Chiefs have officially put out their initial 53 man roster. See it here! And remember, you can use my app to generate a graphic of your teams roster as well! Link in the post below!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

NFL Cut down day is fast approaching! Get your roster predictions in while you can! I built an app last year to help you with your roster decisions. You can generate just a normal 53 man roster with it, or a more depth chart style graphic if you prefer! Here are both for the Chiefs! Link below 👇

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Here's a list of how many players at each position the Chiefs have kept on the initial 53 man roster in every year of the Andy Reid era. Use it to maintain your sanity during cutdown predictions! I'd lean heavily on more recent history in your predictions. Past 4 years is probably most relevant.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Here is a list of the Chiefs rookies since 2018 who met this definition of rookie "starter". 2021 (3) 2022 (4) 👀 2025 (3) Those three drafts produced the most rookie "starters" for the Chiefs.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

I looked at rookie "starters"* across all 7 rounds of the NFL draft to see how many you can reasonably expect from a draft class. There is a pretty sizable drop off after the second round. Fully 56.2% come from rounds 1 and 2 alone. *rookies who played at least 50% of the snaps in at least 6 games

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

On defense, September is king, with 10.1%, while February brings up the rear (7.2%). Not terribly fair, as it has a couple fewer days in it, but them's the breaks, I guess.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Have you ever wondered which month of the year produces the highest share of snaps in the NFL? Well, wonder no more! This chart shows the snap share for the 2025 season. Players born in October accounted for a whopping 10.7% of all offensive snaps in 2025. December is the lowest at just 6.2%.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Here's a chart that shows the net rest differential for every team, how many games they have a rest advantage, and how many they have a rest disadvantage. Clearly the NFL wants the Bears and Bills to be good this season. Also clearly, fuck the Chargers.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Here is the Raiders schedule. They only face three teams coming off of byes, but all three come in a four week period, and the one team in that span that doesn't get a +7 day rest advantage is the defending Super Bowl champions. At least they get their bye week directly after this brutal stretch.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

The Eagles aren't quite as bad, but they too face four teams coming off of bye weeks. THey make up some rest day numbers by being the recipients of extra days off due to TNF games, but they still end up at -15 rest days.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Then you look at the Chargers schedule, and they are simply fucked by the schedulers. They play four teams coming off of bye weeks, and two more games against teams coming off of TNF games. They have a total of -24 rest days compared to their opponents.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

I'm looking at the amount of rest days a given team gets compared to their opponents. Generally it's fairly mild differences, like this Chiefs schedule this year. There's a couple games with an advantage, a couple more with disadvantages, and it ends up being -2 rest days across the entire season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Here's their UDFA class, or at least the ones that showed up on consensus boards. The Beast and DJ boards only went to 100, so they're blank here. WR Jeff Caldwell joins his college teammate in KC (WR Cyrus Allen) at his position, which is fun.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Meant to post this last week. The Chiefs draft class. No major reaches, and the steals they got were mostly post pick 100, so it's a shrug 🤷‍♂️ Pretty solid drafting, imo. Didn't love the trade up for Delane, but he's a good player at a premium position, so I won't complain too loudly.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

The Kansas City Chiefs drafted WR Cyrus Allen at pick 176. He was ranked 184 on Arif Hasan's Consensus Board.

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