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Jonas W. Schmid

@jonaswschmid.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1.5K following 64 posts

Researching autocratic politics, ministers & international cooperation at the University of Oslo.

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Reposted by Jonas W. Schmid
Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 11/09/2026
Game theorists: "This model assumes the closet autocrat strategically aggrandizes in ways that minimize detection. The cost of detection is represented by θ." Trump:
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 10/09/2026
Peak academic user interface is having a dropdown menu with every academic institution in the world.
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The WhoGov Project mourns the death of Dolly Parton, a true leader.
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𝙅𝙖𝙘🍩𝙗 𝙉𝙮𝙧𝙪𝙥 @jacobnyrup.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Thank you for the team effort in organizing this @jonaswschmid.bsky.social, @inalkristiansen.bsky.social, @gelonn99.bsky.social, @javierpadilla.bsky.social & @andreinathoma.bsky.social!
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Congrats for the cake! (and the book)
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Edward Goldring @edwardgoldring.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Publication day was last weekend. Book cake was this weekend🥳 Available for $35 with Cornell (unfortunately does not come with cake): cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The #WhoGov26 mini-conference has officially started!
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Does losing an election affect politicians' democratic attitudes? A large literature documents a winner–loser gap among voters, but evidence on political elites was long scarce. A series of recent studies has narrowed this gap. A thread on the state of the evidence. 🧵
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
We are excited for the keynote at next week's mini-conference on political elites: @dzobrien.bsky.social and @tiffanydbarnes.bsky.social will present "Who Governs and Why It Matters: Lessons from Cabinet Appointments" on Thursday the 20th, 13–14. If you are in Oslo and want to attend, let us know
whogov.net
Conference — WhoGov
WhoGov workshops, conference panels, and data clinics for the research community.
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Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
📣 We are hiring - please share! 👉 1-2 Postdoctoral Fellows with specialization in political data science or comparative politics as part of the ERC project “Authoritarian Threats to Scientific Knowledge” (AutoKnow)- PI Tore Wig. 📅3-4 years ⏳September 10, 2026. 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Thursday, September 10, 2026
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Vilde Lunnan Djuve @vldjuve.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
New paper out in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social! Here, I look at the non-linear relationship between levels of executive constraints and a country's risk of experiencing incumbent takeovers. academic.oup.com/jpr/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Executive constraints and incumbent takeovers
Abstract. This paper provides a systematic study of how judicial and legislative constraints on the executive safeguard against incumbent-driven regime tra
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The WhoGov Project has a new webpage 🎉 It brings our datasets, publications, team, and news together in one home. We have big plans for expanding the dataset and building the project, and we'll keep it updated. Take a look (and join our mailing list): whogov.net
whogov.net
WhoGov — Data on governing elites
Mapping the people who govern us — worldwide and across centuries. WhoGov provides open, global data on the members of government, from 1966 to today. Hosted at the University of Oslo.
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Henning Finseraas @finseraas.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
We have an open call for a postdoc interested in causal effects of Voting Advice Applications on political behaviour (deadline Aug 20): www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (304454) | NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (304454), Employer: NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Deadline: Thursday, August 20, 2026
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Lee Morgenbesser @lmorgenbesser.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Only a handful of dictatorships don't hold national elections, and that is because they are monarchies, never institutionalised them, or are in a state of prolonged conflict. Disbanding elections outright means you are betting against the notion that international democratic norms will be enforced.
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Gingerspiced @gingerspiced.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Pete Hegseth: "We need our warriors to embrace the Spartan mindset" U.S. Military: *suffers crushing defeat to the Persians*
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BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL AKA PRESIDENT FOOTBALL @edsbs.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
When my Civ VI game gets really interesting
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 07/07/2026
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Happy to be back in Oslo and to join this great company!
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
⚽📚 The Ultimate World Cup Research Thread I've set up a little automated thread: every day of the 2026 World Cup (11 Jun–19 Jul) it shares one study on what football does to society: politics, economics, migration, health, crime & more. One paper a day. Kickoff below 👇
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
We are happy to release Version 4 of WhoGov, which expands WhoGov to 2025. It now contains data on cabinet members from 1966-2025. The update is supported by UiO:Democracy and can be downloaded through GETGOV's page or through Nuffield College: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/whogov-datas.... 1/2
sv.uio.no
Governing elites since the dawn of modern democracy (GETGOV) - Department of Political Science
Ever since humans settled into communities, there have been political classes. A small elite governs, while the majority are governed. Yet, who are the people in the governing elite? GETGOV will answe...
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Also check out the full brief: www.wfd.org/sites/defaul...
wfd.org
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
How will the rise of autocracies in international relations reshape global governance and what can democratic policy-makers do to counter this? I wrote a blogpost on this based on a policy brief with @jonastallberg.bsky.social and @faradj.bsky.social: www.democracywithoutborders.org/43349/how-th...
democracywithoutborders.org
How the rise of autocracies is reshaping global governance
This article explains how autocracies are reshaping global governance through institutional drift, informal cooperation and domestic backlash, and how democracies can react to defend liberal norms and...
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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
New publication! "Governing for Growth? Economic Performance and Finance Minister Survival in Democracies and Autocracies" by @jonaswschmid.bsky.social and @jacobnyrup.bsky.social now out in Political Research Quarterly. doi.org/10.1177/1065...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 01/06/2026
Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams? A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brüderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. —> doi.org/10.31222/osf...
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Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
📢 New article 🌟 👥 Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social & Jacob Nyrup @jacobnyrup.bsky.social (ISV) 👉 Governing for Growth? Economic Performance and Finance Minister Survival in Democracies and Autocracies 📗 Open Access in Political Research Quarterly 🔗 doi.org/10.1177/1065...
doi.org
Governing for Growth? Economic Performance and Finance Minister Survival in Democracies and Autocracies - Jonas Willibald Schmid, Jacob Nyrup, 2026
Are the highest-ranking public officials rewarded for good performance? Using the case of finance ministers, we argue that this depends on the type of regime. D...
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Lee Morgenbesser @lmorgenbesser.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Equally insane is the complete lack of both condemnation from political elites and spontaneous mass protests from citizens. Indeed, grand corruption is already a fully normalised feature of authoritarian rule in the United States.
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Joshua Tucker @jatucker.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
1/ Excited to report we have a new paper out @nature.com today! The bottom line: training data for LLMs does not just fall from the sky - it is created in the context of existing social political institutions - and that has consequences for LLM output. nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
State media control influences large language models - Nature
Government-controlled media influences the output of large language models via their training data, and models queried in the languages of countries with lower media freedom show a stronger ...
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Sol Messing @solmg.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
New in Nature: LLMs give "the party line" in the languages of authoritarian regimes. This works when they control the media, which feeds pretraining data. We show more state control over the media means less critical LLMs. 6 studies spanning 38 languages & 13 models. Details ↓
Scatter plot of 38 countries plus China showing the proportion of LLM responses favorable to the regime in the local language vs. World Press Freedom Index score. Lower press freedom predicts more regime-favorable responses; all production models pooled.
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Max Alyukov @max-alyukov.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
My new paper with Margarita Zavadskaya is out in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social! Since 2022, the Kremlin has turned pseudo fact checking into a key propaganda strategy. But how does it affect citizens? We run an experiment to answer this Q (10/): doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 28/01/2026
Senior professors with good funding and armies of research assistants should share what they delegate to their RAs without giving them authorial credit. This will help us without such resources understand the ethical boundaries of using Claude Code and other LLMs for our own work.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
This matters because it shapes what top officials are actually incentivized to do. Democratic finance ministers have reasons to deliver growth and serve the public. Their autocratic counterparts may instead be rewarded for enriching the leader, leaving citizens' economic welfare a lower priority.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
And indeed: In democracies, finance ministers are 4–5pp less likely to be removed in normal years than in crises, and 10–11pp less likely in booms, which is considerable given a 23.6% baseline risk in crisis years (without leader change). In autocracies we find no link between growth and survival.
Coefficient plot showing the main results from the paper.  Models show the marginal increase in the probability of being removed from cabinet during years with economic booms and normal economy relative to years of economic crises. The bars indicate 95 percent (thin) and 90 percent (bold) confidence intervals.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
We use WhoGov to identify (2,800+) finance ministers and if they lost office, and combine it with growth data to identify economic booms and crises. Importantly, we focus on years where the leader stays in power to isolate effects on the minister from those on the survival of the whole government.
Bar chart from the paper comparing the average removal rates of finance ministers in autocracies and democracies during economic booms, crises, and normal economies, including and excluding years of leader changes.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Autocrats face other incentives. Their main threat comes from insiders, so competent minister can be potential rivals. Dictators are also more likely to judge ministers on if they enrich them or implement their sometimes strange economic ideas. So delivering economic growth isn't always rewarded.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
We argue that democratic leaders, dependent on winning elections, have strong reasons to retain ministers that deliver growth and fire those that don't. Successful ministers boost public support and signal competence to voters, while firing failing ministers shows accountability and can shift blame.
Abstract
Are the highest-ranking public officials rewarded for good performance? Using the case of finance ministers, we argue
that this depends on the type of regime. Democratic leaders have incentives to retain high-performing finance ministers
because they are accountable to the population through free and fair elections. In the absence of free and fair elections,
autocrats face opposing incentives. While growth stabilizes the regime, a high-performing minister of finance can also be
a potential rival. Moreover, autocratic finance ministers will, to a higher degree than democratic, be judged on their
ability to enrich the leader rather than creating growth. As a result, autocrats reward finance ministers less for
economic growth than democrats. Using data on over 2,800 finance ministers in the period 1966–2021, we dem-
onstrate a close link between economic growth and the retention of finance ministers in democracies but not in
autocracies. The findings indicate that democracies are better at fostering and rewarding competence at the highest
level of political office, speaking to the merits of democracy relative to autocracy.
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Are top public officials rewarded for good performance? In our new paper "Governing for growth?" (doi.org/10.1177/1065...). @jacobnyrup.bsky.social and I study how economic performance affects the political survival of finance ministers to show that this depends on the regime they work in. Thread ⬇️
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Haakon Gjerløw @haakongjerlw.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
PRIO is hiring a new Executive Assistant, This is a role that sits at the heart of our leadership, and is involved with most aspects of management. You will work closely with me - not sure if that is a boon or a curse - but there is room to shape how the role evolves www.prio.org/about/career...
prio.org
Executive Assistant to the Director – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Are you interested in academic research and enjoy working in an international environment? If you are also committed to quality and are a service minde ...
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
"Trumpmenbaşy" LOL. Excellent
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Philipp Lutscher @plutscher.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Delighted to share a short blog post on the dark logic of visual "strongman" propaganda — drawing on survey experiments in Venezuela, Türkiye and the US!
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Maarten Schenk @mschenk.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
The best indication so far the WHCD Trump shooting wasn't staged? No evidence yet of huge insider bets just before it happened on Polymarket or Kalshi :-)
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PSA Autocracy & Regime Change Specialist Group @psaautocracy.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
We are excited to have won @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social's joint prize for Specialist Group of the Year! If you are a researcher studying autocracies, come join this great community!
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Xavier Marquez @marquezxavier.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
New version of my R package {democracyData} available: github.com/xmarquez/dem...
github.com
GitHub - xmarquez/democracyData: Access and manipulate most standard scholarly measures of democracy
Access and manipulate most standard scholarly measures of democracy - xmarquez/democracyData
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perfandersson.bsky.social @perfandersson.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Scheidel's "Great Leveler" argued equality has historically come from violence. Can peaceful redistribution do the same? In our lab experiment, redistribution doesn't reduce punishment — it shifts it from 'punish the rich' to 'punish free-riders.' 🧵 journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
journals.plos.org
Inequality aversion and prosocial punishment: Evidence from a one-shot public goods game
The willingness to engage in costly punishment of free riders (prosocial punishment) is crucial to foster group cooperation and understand public goods provision. While prosocial punishment is common ...
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Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Very happy that my article "Electoral autocracies, hybrid regimes, and multiparty autocracies: same, same but different?" won the Frank Cass Prize for the best young scholar article in @democratization.bsky.social in 2025! Read it here or check the thread below: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Carl Henrik Knutsen @chknutsen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social. Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism". There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.
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Lee Morgenbesser @lmorgenbesser.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
With Hungary’s crucial election a few days away, its National Election Office has published a list of accredited international observers (n. 859). Having spent nearly a decade researching the behavior of international observers, I decided to take a closer look 😊 www.valasztas.hu/en/internati...
valasztas.hu
International observers registered for the parliamentary elections to be held in 2026
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𝙅𝙖𝙘🍩𝙗 𝙉𝙮𝙧𝙪𝙥 @jacobnyrup.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Three days left to apply for our mini-conference on political elites - deadline is April 1st! It will be held August 20-21st, 2026 in Oslo. We promise good food (maybe brown cheese), beautiful scenery, & great work on political elites Call for papers w. submission link here: bit.ly/whogovminico...
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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Foreign influencers help authoritarian regimes: while they may not sway domestic audiences already saturated with propaganda, they can reshape the perceptions of more credulous foreign publics journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
Authoritarian Persuasion at Home and Abroad: The Partial Effectiveness of Foreign Influencers in Propaganda Work - Siyu Liang, Lachlan McNamee, 2026
How do authoritarian regimes make propaganda persuasive? This study evaluates the impact of foreign influencers in propaganda. Social media videos and state bro...
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V-Dem Institute @vdeminstitute.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
📢 We are hiring: Combined Postdoc position at V-Dem Institute and GLD! Applications are open for a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Cross-National Survey Methodology in Political Science. Application: web103.reachmee.com/ext/I005/103... 🧵1(4) #Polisky #PoliSciSky #PoliticalScienceJobs #PostDoc
Flag of University of Gothenburg, hanging from the wall of the Department of Political Science building. Added text: We're Hiring! Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Cross-National Survey Methodology in Political Science. Combined position at V-Dem Institute and Governance and Local Development Institute.
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Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The gap that's opened up between the military capacity of the United States (unmatched in human history) and its political and diplomatic capacity (none) is frightening
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