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Especially when hugely damaging changes are made on a narrow plurality of the electorate in a referendum. In 1977/78 Thatcher rightly supported demands for a 40% threshold in the Scottish Devolution referendum. In his arrogance Cameron ignored advice to do the same in the Brexit referendum.

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It is perhaps a measure of how terrified some of them are of what they have let loose on the far right. Farage has threatened an enabling act and a state of emergency. The life expectancy of even right wing journalists once an ethno-nationalist government was installed in the 1930s was rather low.

This is the strongest measure against racist declarations since Heath sacked Powell from the shadow cabinet following the Rivers of Blood speech. If Kemi Badenoch becomes a minority PM in 2029 and the Commons votes against her a second election is inevitable jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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If 2029 produces a hung Parliament and Andy Burnham resigns, as Heath (Feb 1974)and Brown (2010) did, Kemi Badenoch cannot now strike a deal with the ethno-nationalists. If she is defeated on the King's speech a second election is inevitable. jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

On this occasion Badenoch's argument is not that it is undemocratic to work with other parties (which is fallacious) but that it is simply wrong to do a deal with the ethno-nationalist far right. I think she means it and we should welcome condemnation of ethno-nationalists .

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KB is clearly not going to do a deal with the people who claim her children are not English. If she becomes PM without a Commons majority and the Faragist gangsters, Labour and LibDems try to turn her out, she will rightly go to the country, jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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If she becomes PM without a majority in the Commons and is defeated on the King's speech by Labour, Reform and Lib Dems all voting against her then the alternative to a second election would be to invite Farage and the racist gangsters into government. She would be a second von Papen.

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Kemi Badenoch - unsurprisingly - won't deal with people who claim she is not English and that her children aren't either. If she gets to be PM of a minority govt she stands to gain by calling a second election if they & LibDems vote together to defeat her. jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

I think she really means it - and will stick to it. She doesn't like being told she isn't English and that her children aren't English and she has probably worked out that a deal with the ethno-nationalist far right will keep her out of effective power for good jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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I think she means it - the reference to her children is striking. jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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If she found herself PM of a minority government it would because the country had answered the question "Do you want Burnham?" with "No" The second election would pose a different question - do you want to let these LibDem MPs put him back? jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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Unusually I disagree. KB only gets to call an election is she is PM and if she becomes PM but is defeated on a confidence motion she may well benefit from a second election while trying to get into bed with far right ethno-nationalists would split her party jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

Badenoch can only force another election if she becomes PM herself - and if she found herself PM of a minority government there are scenarios in which this would make good sense jegerton.substack.com/p/kemi-and-a...

Kemi is right to prefer a second election to a deal with Reform

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The world (at least for the majority of those living in the area) must have felt as if it were coming to an end in much of Northern France in the early c15 (end of 100 years war) or in Germany between 1614 and 1648 or what is now Western Poland in 1945. Solitudinem faciunt; pacem appellant.

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This of course is an incentive for Labour to shoot the Conservative fox. Entirely defensible given the impact of the £100k trap on doctors offered attractive terms in say Australia

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She seems to have overlooked the Lib Dems sweeping the board in a by-election in one of her wards. As for the referendum less than 40 % of the then electorate voted leave (Thatcher set 40% as threshold for devolution in 1977) and the Reaper has culled that plurality.

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The Conservatives have forgotten how Gaitskell gave them the 1959 election by promising pension spending and not to increase income tax. Macmillan: “if this is an auction I am not in it”.

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And if you want an example of why this lot can’t win an election the text is not available online according to search engines. With so many Cons voters retired, using smart phones and worried about health policy an example of how to shoot yourself in the foot.

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2. The problem with any alliance with the Conservatives is that the Liberals end up being absorbed - witness the Liberal Unionists and National Liberals. (Cameron suicidally blundered in not following the example of Balfour and Macmillan who would have absorbed not betrayed the LDs in 2015.)

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The Liberals and then Lib Dems have had the problem summed up by Sir Austin Chamberlain in the King's Speech debate in 1925: "In future the country will know that if it wants socialism it should vote Labour. If it does not it should vote Unionist [Conservative]" .../2

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The Church of England has made similar declarations. The Archbishop has repeatedly condemned antisemitism. Earlier this year the Dean of Canterbury preached a sermon on antisemitism and islamophobia entirely consistent with Nostra Aetate.

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"faithful to 'maintain good fellowship among the nations' (1 Peter 2:12), and, if possible, to live for their part in peace with all men, so that they may truly be sons of the Father who is in heaven." Christians should stand shoulder to shoulder with Jews in condemning the Green motion.

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"The Church reproves, as foreign to the mind of Christ, any discrimination against men or harassment of them because of their race, color, condition of life, or religion. On the contrary following in the footsteps of the holy Apostles Peter and Paul, this sacred synod ardently implores the Christian

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"No foundation therefore remains for any theory or practice that leads to discrimination between man and man or people and people, so far as their human dignity and the rights flowing from it are concerned.

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"Man's relation to God the Father and his relation to men his brothers are so linked together that Scripture says: "He who does not love does not know God" (1 John 4:8).

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Nostra Aetate ends with: "We cannot truly call on God, the Father of all, if we refuse to treat in a brotherly way any man, created as he is in the image of God.

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"Finally, they value the moral life and worship God especially through prayer, almsgiving and fasting. ..

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".submitted to God. Though they do not acknowledge Jesus as God, they revere Him as a prophet. They also honor Mary, His virgin Mother; at times they even call on her with devotion. They await the day of judgment when God will render their deserts to all those who have been raised up from the dead.

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"They adore the one God, living and subsisting in Himself; merciful and all- powerful, the Creator of heaven and earth, who has spoken to men; they take pains to submit wholeheartedly to even His inscrutable decrees, just as Abraham, with whom the faith of Islam takes pleasure in linking itself, ...

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When Nostra Aetate was composed, antisemitism was more common than islamophobia. Both were condemned by the Decree. This is what the Decree said: "The Church regards with esteem also the Moslems.

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"In company with the Prophets and the same Apostle, the Church awaits that day, known to God alone, on which all peoples will address the Lord in a single voice and 'serve him shoulder to shoulder' (Soph. 3:9)"

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"God holds the Jews most dear for the sake of their Fathers; He does not repent of the gifts He makes or of the calls He issues-such is the witness of the Apostle." .

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"The Church keeps ever in mind the words of the Apostle about his kinsmen: 'theirs is the sonship and the glory and the covenants and the law and the worship and the promises; theirs are the fathers and from them is the Christ according to the flesh' (Rom. 9:4-5)"

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"The Church, therefore, cannot forget that she received the revelation of the Old Testament through the people with whom God in His inexpressible mercy concluded the Ancient Covenant... the Church believes that by His cross Christ, Our Peace, reconciled Jews and Gentiles. making both one in Himself"

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"in her rejection of every persecution against any man, the Church, mindful of the patrimony she shares with the Jews and moved not by political reasons but by the Gospel's spiritual love, decries hatred, persecutions, displays of anti-Semitism, directed against Jews at any time and by anyone"

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Declaration on the Relation of the Church to non-christian religions - Nostra aetate

The bishops as leaders of the Christian community in the UK should condemn the Green motion outright. It is contrary to Nostra Aetate, a decree of the 2nd Vatican Council promulgated by a Pope who is a canonised saint. Nostra Aetate www.vatican.va/archive/hist...

vatican.va

Nostra aetate

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We must all hope so. But what about Green MPs? Where do they stand?

It does not matter how few or how many antisemites and islamophobes are elected. Even one polluted our politics. Anyone willing to be a Parliamentary friend of such people becomes their accomplice in a great evil.

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It does not matter how many or few vote because of antisemitic (or islamaphobic) policies. It matters that our politics are polluted by people who subscribe to the doctrines of Mein Kampf being elected at all.

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They should remind their congregations of the teaching of Pope St John Paul II that for Christians the Jews are our older brothers in the faith. Theirs are the covenants and the promises.

What has been done is contrary to Christian teaching and conflicts with the decree of the Vatican Council promulgated by a Pope who is a canonised saint, Nostra Aetate. Every bishop and every priest should condemn it unequivocally.

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In 2005 the shadow CST Howard Flight loosely talked of cuts beyond the announced target and was promptly dropped by Michael Howard as candidate for Anundell the seat now occupied by Griffith. Is there something on the water? Is Kemi willing as tough as her predecessor in disciplining shadows?

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Quite literally dying off I fear. The Grim Reaper is the most effective ally Labour and LDs have. I calculated that if every surviving voter from 2019 had voted the same way in 2024 and the pollsters were right about new voters then the Conservative majority would have fallen to around 20.

Surely the Conservatives will only have the route you describe after Labour has been visibly kept in power by LDs as in 1976 - 9 or put in as in 1924. So it is a credible scenario for 2034 or 2038/9 if Labour come to depend on LDs after 2029, not a credible scenario for 2029.

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That certainly happened in 1979. Maybe in 2017 and 2019 Remain position had similar effect in some seats. But in 1979 Libs had kept Callaghan in office & Conservative Party had constituency organisations that supported effective campaigning. Today LD have the organisations & cllrs. Cons do not.

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Sorry not “Keller” but “Kellner” as in @peterkellner.bsky.social