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James Manley

@jmanley32.bsky.social
240 followers 278 following 45 posts

Research interests: social protection & nutrition Personal interests: racial justice; environment & food economics Professor of Economics at Towson University, Maryland, USA Home page: sites.google.com/view/jmanley/home

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Reposted by James Manley
Anna Kornbluh @annakornbluh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"To fight back, Americans need to learn the counterspy techniques of C.I.A. officers: using multiple sources to check information; testing those sources regularly for reliability; never getting complacent and trusting one source without thinking."
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Jessica Pishko @jesspish.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This piece from @soraya.press gave me a lot to think about. (Still sort of processing) sorayachemaly.substack.com/p/33-underst...
sorayachemaly.substack.com
33. A Long Read About Living in a World Where Men Publicly Bond over Women’s Humiliation and Pain
From the Burnerverse to Cornell to Clavicular, our society is all too happy to shift the cost and burden of sexual violence and male onto victims to protect men
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Shoutout to the 🐐GOAT🐐, respect greatness www.macfound.org/videos/2026-...
macfound.org
Ellora Derenoncourt - 2026 MacArthur Fellow
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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International Food Policy Research Institute @ifpri.org · 12/08/2026
#NowReading: "Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia." Learn more here: doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105733 @cgiar.org @leightjessica.bsky.social #OpenAccess
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Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · 29/07/2026
Americans are having to adapt to the biggest price jump on groceries in 50 years thanks to Donald Trump. And instead of helping you, he’s adding more tariffs, more gas price hikes, and more chaos at home.
apnews.com
Americans rewire their grocery shopping routines while digesting the biggest price jump in 50 years
Living through the biggest jump in grocery prices in a half-century has many Americans changing their eating and food shopping habits.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Recently in Italy I was asked, "Where are you from?" When I said "USA," amusingly he fell silent. Today the President is bent on maximum grift, but I'm still proud to be American. Thanks to @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for a historian's vision of the country's founding.
vox.com
The late historian who rekindled my hope for America’s future
Gordon Wood’s argument for the “radicalism” of the Revolution reveals something profound — and hopeful — about America.
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
That picture…
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Ivan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Today is a good day to (re-)read Lincoln's Gettysburg address. Go on. It isn't that long.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes" by Christian Posso, Jorge Tamayo, Arlen Guarin, and Estefania Saravia.
aeaweb.org
Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies whether more skilled physicians improve birth outcomes. We exploit a natural experiment in Colombia, where newly graduated physicians were randomly assigned to Local Health Centers (LHCs), to estimate the causal effect of being treated by a more skilled physician—measured using medical graduation exam scores—on newborn health. We find that mothers treated at LHCs assigned physicians with exam scores one standard deviation higher were 9.14 percent less likely to give birth to an unhealthy newborn. Suggestive evidence indicates that more skilled physicians achieve these results by better targeting prenatal care toward high-risk mothers without reducing care for others.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
I think this could be a really important research study as we economists figure out how to do our craft in this new AI era. I'm excited by what Seth is doing, and wanna encourage folks to get involved.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
That's just one of many great chapters in the new open access volume, including one on social protection and child health by myself with Lia Fernald, Paul Gertler, and Eleanor Tsai direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edi...
direct.mit.edu
Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Development
CC BY-NC-NDThe open access edition of this book was made possible by generous funding and support from MIT Press Direct to Open
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Policy Research Solutions (PRESTO) @prestopolicy.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
We’re proud to be participating in the 3rd @wfp.org Global Impact Evaluation Forum 2025! Join the live stream tomorrow for a panel session featuring a presentation from our President, @tiapalermo.bsky.social: wfp-org-conference.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 09/12/2025
Some closing thoughts for my students this semester on LLMs and learning #rstats datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-12...
Will you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course in the future?
No.

Why won’t you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course?
These tools are useful for coding (see this for my personal take on this).

However, they’re only useful if you know what you’re doing first. If you skip the learning-the-process-of-writing-code step and just copy/paste output from ChatGPT, you will not learn. You cannot learn. You cannot improve. You will not understand the code.In that post, it warns that you cannot use it as a beginner:

…to use Databot effectively and safely, you still need the skills of a data scientist: background and domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability.

There is no LLM-based shortcut to those skills. You cannot LLM your way into domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, or coding ability.

The only way to gain domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability is to struggle. To get errors. To google those errors. To look over the documentation. To copy/paste your own code and adapt it for different purposes. To explore messy datasets. To struggle to clean those datasets. To spend an hour looking for a missing comma.

This isn’t a form of programming hazing, like “I had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow and now you must too.” It’s the actual process of learning and growing and developing and improving. You’ve gotta struggle.This Tumblr post puts it well (it’s about art specifically, but it applies to coding and data analysis too):

Contrary to popular belief the biggest beginner’s roadblock to art isn’t even technical skill it’s frustration tolerance, especially in the age of social media. It hurts and the frustration is endless but you must build the frustration tolerance equivalent to a roach’s capacity to survive a nuclear explosion. That’s how you build on the technical skill. Throw that “won’t even start because I’m afraid it won’t be perfect” shit out the window. Just do it. Just start. Good luck. (The original post has disappeared, but here’s a reblog.)

It’s hard, but struggling is the only way to learn anything.You might not enjoy code as much as Williams does (or I do), but there’s still value in maintaining codings skills as you improve and learn more. You don’t want your skills to atrophy.

As I discuss here, when I do use LLMs for coding-related tasks, I purposely throw as much friction into the process as possible:

To avoid falling into over-reliance on LLM-assisted code help, I add as much friction into my workflow as possible. I only use GitHub Copilot and Claude in the browser, not through the chat sidebar in Positron or Visual Studio Code. I treat the code it generates like random answers from StackOverflow or blog posts and generally rewrite it completely. I disable the inline LLM-based auto complete in text editors. For routine tasks like generating {roxygen2} documentation scaffolding for functions, I use the {chores} package, which requires a bunch of pointing and clicking to use.

Even though I use Positron, I purposely do not use either Positron Assistant or Databot. I have them disabled.

So in the end, for pedagogical reasons, I don’t foresee me incorporating LLMs into this class. I’m pedagogically opposed to it. I’m facing all sorts of external pressure to do it, but I’m resisting.

You’ve got to learn first.
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Danila Serra @danilaserra-eco.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Stay tuned for follow-up, where we conduct an RCT involving vulnerable women in this area - half abducted as children - to assess the impact of: 1) cash only 2) cash+group life-skill training 3) cash+group mental health counseling W/ @eeshani.bsky.social & @mirandainez.bsky.social
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Clint Smith @clintsmithiii.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
I spent October traveling to schools throughout the South talking to students about American history. What I found were young people who understand we can tell a story that includes both the positive and the negative. As one 8th grader in Memphis said, “Doesn’t seem that hard, just say both things.”
theatlantic.com
Tell Students the Truth About American History
We owe it to Americans of all ages to be honest about the country’s past, including its contradictions.
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Vox @vox.com · 19/09/2025
In the past few weeks, a series of developments has revealed a disturbingly credible policy pathway to power consolidation. We now know what a Trump-led authoritarian state in America would look like — and how we would get there from here.
vox.com
This is how Trump ends democracy
The past week has revealed Trump’s policy road map to veto one-party rule. Will Americans let him follow it?
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Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
As a former student said to me recently: “Mouth full Scripture, Heart full of Hate.”
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
The most important idea in all of economics is not competition, but cooperation.
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Esteban J. Quiñones, Ph.D. @estebanjq.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
What can you do about the assault on USAID? Share this far and wide. Do your part! Please do retweet 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
USAID What’s Happening & Why it Matters
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 06/02/2025
Crimes in state law lie beyond the pardon power of the US President.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Just spitballing, but things that could happen today: *Court injunction protecting USAID *Dems demand hearings on Musk's role *Someone introduce articles of impeachment *Dem officeholders go to USAID offices with USAID workers *Refuse to conduct any more Senate confirmations until this is resolved
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John Sipher @johnsipher.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
On 21 March 1933 Adolf Hitler was officially sworn in as chancellor of Germany. The same day he pardoned 8,000 Nazis, who had committed violent acts, starting with the failed Hitler coup on 8 November 1923. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/21/u...
nytimes.com
Only a Handful of Republicans in Congress Object to Trump’s Jan. 6 Pardons
Even Republicans who once said violent rioters should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law declined to criticize the presidential clemency for violent offenders, saying it was time to move o...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
I'm teaching a new Master's level class that's an introduction to empirical research in Econ & first step toward writing a thesis. I have a thick folder of research to share and "concepts of a plan" to talk about using AI, but does anyone have a syllabus or ideas about teaching a class like this?
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