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James Manley

@jmanley32.bsky.social
240 followers 278 following 45 posts

Research interests: social protection & nutrition Personal interests: racial justice; environment & food economics Professor of Economics at Towson University, Maryland, USA Home page: sites.google.com/view/jmanley/home

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Reposted by James Manley
Anna Kornbluh @annakornbluh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"To fight back, Americans need to learn the counterspy techniques of C.I.A. officers: using multiple sources to check information; testing those sources regularly for reliability; never getting complacent and trusting one source without thinking."
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Jessica Pishko @jesspish.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This piece from @soraya.press gave me a lot to think about. (Still sort of processing) sorayachemaly.substack.com/p/33-underst...
sorayachemaly.substack.com
33. A Long Read About Living in a World Where Men Publicly Bond over Women’s Humiliation and Pain
From the Burnerverse to Cornell to Clavicular, our society is all too happy to shift the cost and burden of sexual violence and male onto victims to protect men
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Shoutout to the 🐐GOAT🐐, respect greatness www.macfound.org/videos/2026-...
macfound.org
Ellora Derenoncourt - 2026 MacArthur Fellow
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
"We can now estimate to three decimal places how a cash transfer affects a child’s height." Hey, I resemble that remark... :) Can't argue with @bijurao.bsky.social's point that we should consider actually listening to respondents!
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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International Food Policy Research Institute @ifpri.org · 12/08/2026
#NowReading: "Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia." Learn more here: doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105733 @cgiar.org @leightjessica.bsky.social #OpenAccess
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Should we be excited about retirement savings of $1000 per year? Or is this just another gimmick trying to undercut social security?
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Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · 29/07/2026
Americans are having to adapt to the biggest price jump on groceries in 50 years thanks to Donald Trump. And instead of helping you, he’s adding more tariffs, more gas price hikes, and more chaos at home.
apnews.com
Americans rewire their grocery shopping routines while digesting the biggest price jump in 50 years
Living through the biggest jump in grocery prices in a half-century has many Americans changing their eating and food shopping habits.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Are foreign workers in Japan allowed to stay indefinitely? I heard previously that stays were limited to just a few years...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Recently in Italy I was asked, "Where are you from?" When I said "USA," amusingly he fell silent. Today the President is bent on maximum grift, but I'm still proud to be American. Thanks to @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for a historian's vision of the country's founding.
vox.com
The late historian who rekindled my hope for America’s future
Gordon Wood’s argument for the “radicalism” of the Revolution reveals something profound — and hopeful — about America.
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
That picture…
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Ivan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Today is a good day to (re-)read Lincoln's Gettysburg address. Go on. It isn't that long.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
So sorry I couldn't make it: she's one of my heroes! Thanks for all your work and I'm glad you're still going to be editing and doing other jobs Dr. Q!
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Yet another illustration of the arbitrariness of "serving size"
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I use the Banner app everyday and I love your coverage! So grateful you are in Maryland. But is there a "new" app?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
On the other hand what has happened to Isak over the past year? Did Slot totally ruin him?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The top name on the list is hardly a socialist I must say...
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes" by Christian Posso, Jorge Tamayo, Arlen Guarin, and Estefania Saravia.
aeaweb.org
Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies whether more skilled physicians improve birth outcomes. We exploit a natural experiment in Colombia, where newly graduated physicians were randomly assigned to Local Health Centers (LHCs), to estimate the causal effect of being treated by a more skilled physician—measured using medical graduation exam scores—on newborn health. We find that mothers treated at LHCs assigned physicians with exam scores one standard deviation higher were 9.14 percent less likely to give birth to an unhealthy newborn. Suggestive evidence indicates that more skilled physicians achieve these results by better targeting prenatal care toward high-risk mothers without reducing care for others.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Thanks for saying the unpopular thing! Maybe part of the story is that making tasty vegetables requires time and cooking knowledge/ skill as well as money. Also education- knowing the value of nutrition, and what "good food" really looks like- might be key.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
O'Reilly and Silva were everywhere but definitely an improved performance. Still gutting!
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Really? I thought Barry Popkin's work showed some significant impacts from changing packaging in Chile. Digestible version wfpc.sanford.duke.edu/podcasts/chi... Academic www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Changes in food purchases after the Chilean policies on food labelling, marketing, and sales in schools: a before and after study
The Chilean phase 1 law of food labelling and advertising policies were associated with reduced high-in purchases, leading to declines in purchased nutrients of concern. Greater changes might reasonab...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
If half of your class is trying you are doing better than me! I give points for "homework" and for watching assigned videos, and clearly little value is obtained. Just hoping that solving problems in class provides some leveling up of skills... and watching as more and more fail out of the class. :(
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
I think this could be a really important research study as we economists figure out how to do our craft in this new AI era. I'm excited by what Seth is doing, and wanna encourage folks to get involved.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Not directly health, but cattle to climate change link is pretty strong as well, no?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
That's just one of many great chapters in the new open access volume, including one on social protection and child health by myself with Lia Fernald, Paul Gertler, and Eleanor Tsai direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edi...
direct.mit.edu
Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Development
CC BY-NC-NDThe open access edition of this book was made possible by generous funding and support from MIT Press Direct to Open
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Fantastic work! I don't know you but looks like this work and more is at www.maryquiroga.com/research
maryquiroga.com
Mary A. Quiroga - Research
Research
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Policy Research Solutions (PRESTO) @prestopolicy.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
We’re proud to be participating in the 3rd @wfp.org Global Impact Evaluation Forum 2025! Join the live stream tomorrow for a panel session featuring a presentation from our President, @tiapalermo.bsky.social: wfp-org-conference.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 09/12/2025
Some closing thoughts for my students this semester on LLMs and learning #rstats datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-12...
Will you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course in the future?
No.

Why won’t you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course?
These tools are useful for coding (see this for my personal take on this).

However, they’re only useful if you know what you’re doing first. If you skip the learning-the-process-of-writing-code step and just copy/paste output from ChatGPT, you will not learn. You cannot learn. You cannot improve. You will not understand the code.In that post, it warns that you cannot use it as a beginner:

…to use Databot effectively and safely, you still need the skills of a data scientist: background and domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability.

There is no LLM-based shortcut to those skills. You cannot LLM your way into domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, or coding ability.

The only way to gain domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability is to struggle. To get errors. To google those errors. To look over the documentation. To copy/paste your own code and adapt it for different purposes. To explore messy datasets. To struggle to clean those datasets. To spend an hour looking for a missing comma.

This isn’t a form of programming hazing, like “I had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow and now you must too.” It’s the actual process of learning and growing and developing and improving. You’ve gotta struggle.This Tumblr post puts it well (it’s about art specifically, but it applies to coding and data analysis too):

Contrary to popular belief the biggest beginner’s roadblock to art isn’t even technical skill it’s frustration tolerance, especially in the age of social media. It hurts and the frustration is endless but you must build the frustration tolerance equivalent to a roach’s capacity to survive a nuclear explosion. That’s how you build on the technical skill. Throw that “won’t even start because I’m afraid it won’t be perfect” shit out the window. Just do it. Just start. Good luck. (The original post has disappeared, but here’s a reblog.)

It’s hard, but struggling is the only way to learn anything.You might not enjoy code as much as Williams does (or I do), but there’s still value in maintaining codings skills as you improve and learn more. You don’t want your skills to atrophy.

As I discuss here, when I do use LLMs for coding-related tasks, I purposely throw as much friction into the process as possible:

To avoid falling into over-reliance on LLM-assisted code help, I add as much friction into my workflow as possible. I only use GitHub Copilot and Claude in the browser, not through the chat sidebar in Positron or Visual Studio Code. I treat the code it generates like random answers from StackOverflow or blog posts and generally rewrite it completely. I disable the inline LLM-based auto complete in text editors. For routine tasks like generating {roxygen2} documentation scaffolding for functions, I use the {chores} package, which requires a bunch of pointing and clicking to use.

Even though I use Positron, I purposely do not use either Positron Assistant or Databot. I have them disabled.

So in the end, for pedagogical reasons, I don’t foresee me incorporating LLMs into this class. I’m pedagogically opposed to it. I’m facing all sorts of external pressure to do it, but I’m resisting.

You’ve got to learn first.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Doesn't the mdpi domain make it all instantly clear?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
At least the gap is dropping in the more recent years, though the last 10 years have been crazy for everyone. I wonder what's happened there...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
World Cup gonna go great
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
There it is! Thank YOU!
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
Tried to read the excerpt (maureenogle.com/the-price-of...) but it returns an error. Thanks for your work in putting together this work, though: I look forward to reading it!
maureenogle.com
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Reposted by James Manley
Danila Serra @danilaserra-eco.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Stay tuned for follow-up, where we conduct an RCT involving vulnerable women in this area - half abducted as children - to assess the impact of: 1) cash only 2) cash+group life-skill training 3) cash+group mental health counseling W/ @eeshani.bsky.social & @mirandainez.bsky.social
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Clint Smith @clintsmithiii.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
I spent October traveling to schools throughout the South talking to students about American history. What I found were young people who understand we can tell a story that includes both the positive and the negative. As one 8th grader in Memphis said, “Doesn’t seem that hard, just say both things.”
theatlantic.com
Tell Students the Truth About American History
We owe it to Americans of all ages to be honest about the country’s past, including its contradictions.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
100%! I have on occasion found working papers posted on researchgate that were useful. That one is the more predatory.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
So we just took $15 billion from American kids to send $20 billion to Milei's Argentinean rock concert: America first, right?! Only makes sense when you factor in that the $20 billion will go to making American billionaires ever greater....
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Perhaps partly attributable to the Yankees loss?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Boooooooo
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Klein is often this way: he invites someone for an "interview" so that he can speak. To be fair, occasionally he make good points; and then of course there are many times he needs to learn to be quiet.
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Vox @vox.com · 19/09/2025
In the past few weeks, a series of developments has revealed a disturbingly credible policy pathway to power consolidation. We now know what a Trump-led authoritarian state in America would look like — and how we would get there from here.
vox.com
This is how Trump ends democracy
The past week has revealed Trump’s policy road map to veto one-party rule. Will Americans let him follow it?
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
There it is, sorry! And thanks for sending the quote; hopefully social scientists can figure out how to make the most of cash transfers in diverse contexts.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Thanks for your thoughtful post! Let's not forget the recent work in developing countries, though, showing unexpectedly large impacts on child health bsky.app/profile/matt...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
I saw a wp dated 2012, so I was envisioning a 13 year process... glad to hear it's not quite that bad!
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Congratulations again on the paper! Just out of curiosity, I think I see versions online that date back quite a while. How long did it take for this very cool experiment to get accepted? Was there substantial change to the paper? Looking for a story to tell my Master's students about the process...
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
I'm looking at agricultural productivity in Cambodia and everyone is pretending financial inclusion will increase productivity.... Is your published version quite different from the 2021 working paper? I hope not since I don't have access to REStat! Regardless congratulations on a huge success!
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Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
As a former student said to me recently: “Mouth full Scripture, Heart full of Hate.”
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
The most important idea in all of economics is not competition, but cooperation.
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Texts of Terror by Phyllis Trible is a little book that works through several of them. Unfortunately I have heard that Trible herself was rather terrible, stealing the work of many of her students; still, the work covers many rough passages so it might be an easy way to organize your study
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James Manley @jmanley32.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
My system administrators don't allow access to this website, or I'd love to support both iPUMS and DHS, who make my teaching and research possible...
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