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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 2h

The impacts from much higher bond yields and oil prices occur only with a "lag" and as the relationships below indicate, both US economic momentum and the stock market may come under pressure between now and early next year. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

As the charts below show, contractionary financial conditions (FC) this summer may sabotage the upcoming "Best seasonal buying period" for the stock market. Since 1970, when FCs have been tight, the stock market has done poorly in the Nov/April period. See report@ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Innovation spending relative to the rest of GDP has exploded in the last decade. 10-year changes in this spending ratio have correlated closely with the relative TR of tech stocks. My latest post examines whether innovation spending is due for a pause. For details: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The Fed has initiated a new tightening cycle when this proprietary gauge of US Financial Conditions (chart 1) is in its most contractionary quartile since 1970. This is bad news for economic growth and the stock market as shown in chart 4 below. For details click paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The correlation between new era spending growth and overall real GDP has proved important for tech investors. When the correlation is low & begins rising as it has today, tech stocks often underperform. For details, see my latest post highlighting 3 tech warnings at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Thanks to Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back last Friday for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen by tapping the youtube link below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=La88...

youtube.com

Jim Paulsen Sees a Tech Bear Market Coming | The 27 Charts Behind His Warning for Stocks

YouTube video by Excess Returns

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

U.S. economic uncertainty has been a narrative since 2020 but it may soon be returning to normal, and if it does, investing may become much more difficult. The best stock markets are from the highest levels of uncertainty. See my latest free report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

My latest post highlights several economic warning signs including a couple odd events. Chart 4 shows investment no longer creates jobs and chart 9 shows US profits have surged without any real improvement in economic growth. For all the details and more, see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Capital Spending (New Orders) has recently surged in the services sector but has not helped employment. Like it was in 2000 and again in 2021, will this prove to be a cautionary signal for the stock market? See my latest post on 'Warning Signs' @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Since the 1950s, when the Jobs Market Misery Index was as bad as it is currently, the Federal Reserve was usually easing monetary policy rather than debating the need for additional rate hikes. See my full report @ PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Thanks to Carl Quintanilla and Leslie Pickerat #CNBC for having me on the show today! Great working with both of you -- always a privilege and a pleasure to join the conversation. I hope you enjoy the video below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

cnbc.com

S&P could be headed for a correction by year end, says economist Jim Paulsen

Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives author, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why he says the S&P could be headed for a correction by year end, including a bear market in the tech sector.

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My Monday missive offers a critique of six secular tech-led U.S. stock market cycles. The US is currently enjoying its longest (20+ years) but worst performing (only a 6% excess ave. ann. TR) tech leadership cycle of the last 100 years! See my free report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

My latest post examines whether bond vigilantes are more likely to wreak havoc or if slowing economic momentum and moderating inflation will force bond yields lower in the balance of this year. For all the details see my post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

EPS Momentum is the current epicenter of Bullishness. However, earnings results comprise 3 distinct stories -- AI, commodity concerns & the remaining sectors. EPS Mo is narrower than perceived and appears poised to slow. See my latest post for all the details @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

During this bull market, the SP500 has typically reacted to changes in US economic momentum as displayed by the surprise index. Since June, economic Momentum has declined from about 60 to 15 indicating a pullback in the SP500 may be nearing. See my report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Thanks to Jack Forehand (@practicalquant)and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back earlier this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrOo...

youtube.com

Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

YouTube video by Excess Returns

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

EPS momentum has been spectacular! The question is whether it can continue to impress - relative to rising expectations - as challenges emerge. For all the details, see my latest post on EPS challenges with a couple examples highlighted below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

The S&P 500 is highly sensitive to the stock/bond correl. It's been supported by a negative correl trend in recent months. However, as inflation fears recede, expect the correl to trend more positive causing turbulence for the stock market. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Investors are betting on an AI productivity boom. But "Booms" during the post-war era were when detrended real GDP, employment, & productivity were "all" rising. Today, detrended GDP/jobs is not conducive to a productivity boom. For all the details see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The price of gold has already declined by about 25% from recent highs. However, if it eventually reconnects with the global money supply as it has in the past it may decline too as low as $2000. See my latest piece "Observations" for this and more @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Capital Investment has been a major support for the US stock market (chart 1). Particularly during its most recent AI run. However, recent restrictive economic policies now suggest investment spending is poised to disappoint in the coming months (chart 2). Ouch! paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Economic policy forces have been mostly "contractionary" in recent months and as the charts below demonstrate, "with a lag", these forces are likely to bring some PAIN to the stock market. For all the details see my latest missive "Policy Pain" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

In 2020-22 real GDP growth, inflation, and yields soared. However, both real economic growth & inflation have since returned to pre-pandemic norms, but the 10-year bond yield has not? Why? See my latest missive "Back to the Future for Bonds" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Recent extreme price action displayed by the SP500 Low Vol Index suggests investors have simultaneously become worried about both missing out (FOMO) and of not being out (NBO). What does this imply for future SP500 performance? See my latest post for free at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

The stock market exhibits several bear market symptoms and now "policy pressures" are emerging. For example, the Yield Curve and Fiscal policy have been just as contractionary as they were prior to past bear markets. See my latest post "PRESSURE" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The "Capacity" left in this bull market is dwindling. "Both" S&P 500 Price and EPS are simultaneously more extremely above trendline than at any time since WWII. This suggests below average returns in the coming year. See my full report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Thanks to Jack Forehand (@practicalquant)and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen! paulsenperspectives.substack.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJil...

youtube.com

We Asked Jim Paulsen Why He Sees a Correction Coming — He Gave Us 33 Charts That Make the Case

YouTube video by Excess Returns

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

It took 15 years, but the relative price of S&P 500 Old Era stocks has finally broken above its downward trendline. Does this breakout signal a “change in leadership” from New Era to Old Era stocks? See this and more in my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Trading opens today with the S&P 500 Old Era stocks OUTPACING S&P 500 New Era stocks for the first time during the contemporary bull market over any trailing one-year period. Despite AI, is stock market leadership being relinquished by New Era stocks? Changes! PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Has the U.S. stock market had new leadership for the last eight months? The contemporary bull market can already be described as a story of two distinct bulls – New Era until last Fall and Broader Market Plays since. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

For all the excitement since the March 30th AI surge, New Era continues to lose its Mojo! See the charts below! New Era stocks no longer look like strong leaders, rather stocks relinquishing leadership. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

During this bull market, investors' risk aversion has faded from their portfolios. The relative performance of low/high beta stocks has declined to its lowest post-war quintile suggesting too much investor optimism - where major market tops occur. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Despite exciting innovations, US real GDP growth unfortunately appears poised to return to the "Demographic Dungeon" of sluggish activity in the coming years as labor force growth normalizes near post-war lows. See my full report on implications at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Investor bullishness is primarily tied to evidence of spectacular EPS momentum. However, EPS Mo has often peaked just before past bear markets or serious corrections. My latest note discusses a few cautionary tales about today's stock market. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The S&P 500 Stock Price Index relative to its post-WWII trendline has surged to one of its highest excess levels since WWII. In April 2025, it was at only 25% but now trades 60% above trendline, higher than anything but the dotcom era. See my latest post at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Recently, the unemployment rate has been rising, and the real wage rate has declined. That is, MISERY on MAIN has increased. As shown by the chart below, Misery on Main has often resulted in a period of Misery on Wall? For my latest thinking see: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

My latest report compares the current RR Frontier between new & old era S&P 500 stocks. Old era provides much greater diversification today and new era greater returns compared to the 1990's bull market suggesting a higher allocation toward old era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

As demonstrated below, bond yields are established by a long-term, slow-moving average of past inflation rates. If CPI inflation averages less than 3.75% during the next 4 years, bond yields are poised to "trend lower" for the first time since 2019! See my latest: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Despite a better-than-expected jobs report last Friday, the YOY% gain in US jobs remains essentially ZERO. And, as shown below, recent economic policy tightening is poised to weaken US growth momentum. See my latest report for what this may imply for investors. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Thanks to Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back this week for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Please take a look & listen! paulsenperspectives.substack.com youtube.com/watch?v=-cGT...

youtube.com

Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction

YouTube video by Excess Returns

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

The recent new era stock market rally since March 30th is becoming riskier. Old era company profits are not rising, and the rally is being increasing led by riskier small cap and unprofitable tech companies. Sustainable? See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Did Billionaires sell their technology holdings “before” the recent AI-led surge in the stock market as suggested by the chart below? Will the ultra-rich soon be buying AI to catch-up or do Billionaires know something the rest of us don't? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Bond yields are tied closely to the stock-bond correlation. Should the Iran conflict soon end, this correlation should turn more positive (reflecting less worry about inflation and more worry about recession) allowing Fed cuts & bond yields to decline. See my latest paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

As peace nears, it may be good to recall the old adage "buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets". As the charts below demonstrate, every major oil price spike since 1970 has caused stock market turbulence "after" oil prices peak. See my free report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

New era stocks are simply following the new era economy. But challenges are building for new era stocks. New era growth has recently been extreme, and the lagged impact of economic policy has become negative for new era pursuits. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

A concern about this bull market being led so heavily by new era plays is nobody understands what causes new era recessions. New era seems recession proof. However, new era must have a Kryptonite? See my latest report for a few candidates at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

The new/old era S&P 500 correlation has recently collapsed suggesting that a period of new era sector stock price underperformance may be nearing. Investor bullishness is rising but the rally may not be sustainable. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

The most important event for investors during the balance of 2026 may be a shift in the country's cultural mindset from fighting inflation toward restoring real economic growth. For all the details, see my latest post highlighted by the charts below @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Most seem confident the US Jobs market is stabilizing, but this chart certainly doesn't suggest all is well on Main Street! No wonder consumer confidence is at record low for May. Are Profits without jobs okay? Is it sustainable? paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

My latest missive speaks to ongoing and not widely noticed tech stock challenges. Maybe they haven't regained leadership? A couple concerns shown below. Tech still hasn't regained Oct. relative highs and unprofitable tech is leading. For more concerns, see paulsenperspectives.substack.com

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