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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

Integration Without Representation Bureaucracy, Depoliticization, and Military Formation in Post-Civil War Syria

Many insurgents win civil wars at the head of fragmented coalitions. Once in power, they must rebuild the army by integrating former allies, rivals, and autonom

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The outcomes vary a lot. Weak groups dissolved. The SNA is being absorbed slowly. Cohesive units were contained. Where communities had a real political base (Sweida, the northeast) the method stalled or broke down. (5)

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The result is what I call integration without representation. Fighters are inside the army. Their factions lose standing as collective actors able to bargain over the new order. (4)

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

For this, it relied on admin tools: reclassifying factions into numbered divisions, paying salaries to individuals rather than commanders, allocating ranks centrally, standardising training. While there were issues of discipline, it was politically effective (3)

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The standard expectation after civil war is bargaining. Factions trade their guns for quotas, posts, guarantees. In Syria, the HTS-led government mostly skipped that step and gave position to individuals, not to former factions (2)

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

papers.ssrn.com

Integration Without Representation Bureaucracy, Depoliticization, and Military Formation in Post-Civil War Syria

Many insurgents win civil wars at the head of fragmented coalitions. Once in power, they must rebuild the army by integrating former allies, rivals, and autonom

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

A Syrian court has sentenced Bashar Assad and his brother to death in absentia. Learn more about the brutal Assad regime and its overthrow via our Syrian reading list. tinyurl.com/bddxwu3m @rallaf.bsky.social @jeromed.bsky.social

Book covers of 'Impossible Revolution', 'It Started in Damascus' and 'Transformed by the People.'

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Christiana Parreira @cmparreira.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

A recent @foreignpolicy.com article uses survey research to argue just under half of Lebanese oppose disarmament. Some thoughts on why this study, and similar survey research, should be extremely explicit about methodology & cautious in interpretation:

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 13/05/2026

NEW COMMENTARY | The Struggle to Pacify Syria’s Foreign Legions The new government has integrated thousands of foreigners who fought the Assad regime into its state forces. Many Syrians and international partners worry about keeping them under arms. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

Fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) ride in military vehicles in the eastern outskirts of the town of Atarib, in Syria's northern province of Aleppo on November 27, 2024, during clashes with the Syrian army. Abdulaziz KETAZ / AFP

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Thomas Hegghammer @hegghammer.net · 03/05/2026

For anyone interested, here is the syllabus for my graduate-level course on "Computational Methods for Area Studies" hegghammer.net/assets/docum...

hegghammer.net

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Want to learn more about Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa & the tightrope he walks? Read a sample from ‘Transformed by the People’ by Patrick Haenni & @jeromed.bsky.social 👇 tinyurl.com/525sv95p ‘Fascinating and informative.’ @wsj.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...

reuters.com

UK PM Starmer raises migration, border security in talks with Syria's president

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed migration ‌and closer cooperation on returns, border security and tackling people smuggling ⁠networks in a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sha...

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Craig Whiteside @craigwhiteside.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Jerome I’m already lending this to my new thesis student (Jordanian military) I met today! What a great topic for study, and this will be a great resource for him.

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Mark Berlin @markberlin2.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Excited to share “Commanders of the Mujahideen: Introducing the Jihadist Leaders Dataset” at JPR! Analyzing Arabic, French, German, Turkish, and Urdu sources, we gathered information on the backgrounds and experiences of 237 leaders across multiple regions academic.oup.com/jpr/advance-...

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 20/02/2026

NOUVEAU RAPPORT | Le Jnim et le dilemme de l’expansion au-delà du Sahel Le principal groupe jihadiste au Sahel central s’est engagé dans une expansion qui a mis en alerte l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Mais la conquête territoriale est un dilemme pour le Jnim. www.crisisgroup.org/fr/rpt/afric...

crisisgroup.org

Le Jnim et le dilemme de l’expansion au-delà du Sahel | International Crisis Group

Le Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, principal mouvement jihadiste au Sahel central, s’est engagé dans une expansion qui a mis en alerte l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Si la conquête territoriale n’est pas...

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

In Syria, following impressive international successes and the recent reunification of the country, time has come for a more inclusive political transition to secure and consolidate the gains achieved @crisisgroup.org @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

foreignaffairs.com

Trouble Is Brewing in Syria

Sustaining the country’s progress requires a more inclusive transition.

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

foreignaffairs.com

Trouble Is Brewing in Syria

Sustaining the country’s progress requires a more inclusive transition.

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Craig Whiteside @craigwhiteside.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Excited to dig into one of the most astounding stories of 2024 @hurstpublishers.bsky.social www.hurstpublishers.com/book/transfo...

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Thanks Craig, tell me what you think!

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Yvan Guichaoua @yguichaoua.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Our discipline, Conflict Studies, is in trouble. Wolfram and I try to explain the reasons. Comments welcome!

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Wolfram Lacher @wlacher.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

In the new @dissentmag.bsky.social issue, out today, @yguichaoua.bsky.social and I diagnose the crisis of conflict studies in a piece that is part intellectual history, part personal experience. What was conflict studies for? And what can its travails tell us about how wars have changed?

dissentmagazine.org

The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine

An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 02/12/2025

@akmckeever.bsky.social on through-line from HTS governance experiment in Idlib to Syria’s post-Assad regime, based on Patrick Haenni and @jeromed.bsky.social’s “Transformed by the People”: akmckeever.substack.com/p/what-the-h...

akmckeever.substack.com

What the HTS governance legacy in Idlib says about today

A not-quite review of Haenni and Drevon's Transformed by the People

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

‘Fascinating and informative, drawing on the authors’ extensive fieldwork in the region.’ Transformed by the People by Patrick Haenni & @jeromed.bsky.social reviewed in @wsj.com 👏 www.wsj.com/arts-culture...

wsj.com

‘Transformed by the People’ Review: Revolution and Realignment

The Islamist movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham entered Damascus and toppled the Assad regime last year. What comes next for Syria?

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Geneva Graduate Institute @gvagrad.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

Vous vous demandez “Où en est la Syrie" ? Rejoignez-nous le 📅 3 novembre, 12h30, à l’Institut et en ligne pour un échange sur les dynamiques actuelles, HTS, révolutions et transitions. Avec @jeromed.bsky.social and Patrick Haenni, co-auteurs de Transformed by the People. 👉 shorturl.at/H0sji

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

CCDP | Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding @gvagrad-ccdp.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Find CCDP community associates in the latest research bulletin: ❇️ @jeromed.bsky.social ❇️ @jenniferthornquest.bsky.social ❇️ @elenabutti.bsky.social ❇️ @sarahellmuller.bsky.social ❇️ Reza Mehraeen ❇️ Khalid Tinasti ❇️ Robert Watkins

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The book draws on dozens of interviews with al-Sharaa, his associates who later became ministers, dissidents and opponents, as well as diplomats. www.amazon.com/Transformed-... www.amazon.co.uk/Transformed-...

amazon.com

Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria

Amazon.com: Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria eBook : Haenni, Patrick, Drevon, Jerome: Books

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

In addition to the typos, also forgot the main argument! The book’s main argument is that HTS was "transformed by the people". The constraints of Idlib’s social context and of the international environment before the 2024 takeover of Idlib forced the group to change, in very lasting ways

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The book is available in Europe, on Kindle in Europe and the US, and in the US in early November

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

We conclude with an epilogue, written in spring 2025, warning of the rise of a new populist trend in Syria, one driven from the bottom up, seeking supremacy and revenge. This emerging dynamic signals a shift that could reshape the post-HTS landscape in unpredictable and destabilising ways

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

We also examine the tensions in Idlib before 2024: the rise of a populist current pushing for stricter implementation of Islamic law, and how HTS responded. Even more telling was HTS’s handling of last year’s protest movement, which demanded political opening, reforms, and an end to abuses.

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

We also explore HTS’s Salafism in depth showing how, without abandoning Salafism, the group stripped it of most of its political implications. This enables us to analyse HTS’s religious governance, and its approach to religious minorities, in essentially non-religious, even “secularised,” terms.

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The book details how HTS imposed itself over rival factions - especially mainstream Islamists like Ahrar al-Sham - waged war on al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, and brought foreign fighters under its control.

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

In the conclusion, we also compare HTS’s trajectory to European far-right movements that sought to “de-demonise” themselves, showing how strategies of rebranding and normalisation extend well beyond Syria (the comparison might not please everyone!)

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

This change proved lasting and political, with no possible return though, paradoxically, it was largely unintended at the outset. Rather than comparing HTS to other Islamist movements, we place it in the context of a revolutionary situation par excellence: the last phase of the French Revolution.

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

amazon.com

Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria

Amazon.com: Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria eBook : Haenni, Patrick, Drevon, Jerome: Books

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The arrival of Ahmad al-Sharaa in NYC for the UNGA is a timely moment to highlight our new book, published a few weeks ago in Europe and in a month ago in the US (already on Kindle). What lessons can we draw from the past? A threat

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

Our book is finally out in the UK and Europe! (also in a week or so on the kindle in the US, and early November for the hardback in North America). You have read parts of the first chapters on google book: www.google.fr/books/editio...

google.fr

Transformed by the People

Few had predicted that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate collaborating with other rebels, could topple Syria’s Assad regime with such swiftness and determination. In this grippin...

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Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

Congratulations Patrick Haenni and @jeromed.bsky.social, Transformed by the People is out now👏 ‘Essential reading.’ @irishtimes.com ‘Haenni and Drevon have done the impossible… a gem, a superb, edifying and eye-opening account.’—Robert Malley 25% off w/code TRANSFORMED25➡️ tinyurl.com/mb4nrc7n

A stack of copies of Transformed by the People with the Somerset House courtyard visible in the background. The cover features an image of Ahmad al-Sharaa waving to crowds. There is white and yellow text that reads 'Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria. Patrick Haenni & Jerome Drevon.'

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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 17/08/2025

Really cool work out by @andresuribe.bsky.social and colleauges on estimating the prevalence of criminal governance in Latin America ⤵️

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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

The first generous review of our book @irishtimes.com "impressive study of the group, based on a wide range of detailed interviews, including with Shaara. [The book] is probably the best of its kind in English to date on the subject and is essential reading" www.irishtimes.com/culture/book...

irishtimes.com

A thoroughly engrossing account of the Iranian revolution and an essential read on post-Assad Syria

King of Kings: The Fall of the Shah, the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Unmaking of the Modern Middle East by Scott Anderson & Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria

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Reposted by Jerome Drevon

Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

As POTUS meets Syrian President Al-Sharaa, the world asks how an Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadi group evolved into the movement rebuilding Syria post-Assad. Find out how in 'Transformed by the People' by @jeromed.bsky.social & Patrick Haenni. Pre-order here ➡️ tinyurl.com/mr9w9tex tinyurl.com/4cbrp9de

tinyurl.com

Trump to Lift Sanctions on Syria and Meet With New President

President Trump, on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, said he made the decision after speaking to the Saudi crown prince. The president is trying to drum up Saudi investment in the U.S.

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Laia Balcells @laiabalcells.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

So excited to see this out. Stathis and I presented a first version of this paper at APSA in 2010.

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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 14/04/2025

NEW OP-ED | Syria’s Uncertain New Order Many are worried about the possibility of a return to a one-party state—much like that of the Assad regime. But many Syrians perceive their new leader, correctly, as a radical pragmatist, writes @jeromed.bsky.social. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

crisisgroup.org

Syria’s Uncertain New Order | Crisis Group

Can Shara’s Government Unite a Country Ready to Explode?

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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 13/04/2025

Read @jeromed.bsky.social on the factors that will make it more difficult for Syria’s new government to consolidate its hold over the country—and to get all of the country’s constituent groups on board:

foreignaffairs.com

Syria’s Uncertain New Order

Can Shara’s government unite a country ready to explode?

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