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Sam Heller | سام هيلر

@abujamajem.com
5.2K followers 408 following 3.8K posts

Researcher and analyst looking at Lebanon, Syria and the wider neighborhood. Senior @cipolicy.bsky.social Fellow. Former @tcfdotorg.bsky.social @crisisgroup.org. "Jamajem" means ☠️. www.abujamajem.com

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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Dave Lee @davelee.me · 3h
This is completely insane
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 9h
Haddon Barth for @syriatransition.bsky.social on how depictions of Syria as "rubble" – that is, a blank slate – make it easier to ignore the real politics of how Syria now rebuilds and resources are redistributed: www.syriaintransition.com/en/home/opin...
syriaintransition.com
Syria in Transition – Rubble as an 'Anti-Politics Machine'
Long a fixture of Syria policy writing, the metaphor has found a new political use under the Syrian authorities.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Syria’s General Secretariat of the Presidency imposes immediate governmental cost-reduction measures, ordering ministries and public agencies to deprioritize non-urgent projects, spend less money, and use less fuel. Probably not a great sign. alikhbariah.com?p=87294
alikhbariah.com
الأمانة العامة لرئاسة الجمهورية تصدر تعميماً لترشيد الإنفاق العام
تتجه الجهات العامة إلى إعادة ترتيب أولويات الإنفاق وضبط النفقات غير الأساسية، بموجب بلاغ حكومي أصدرته الأمانة العامة لرئاسة الجمهورية، ألزم الوزارات والجهات العامة ذات الطابعين الإداري والاقتصادي باتخ...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 28/09/2026
My latest for @foreignaffairs.com on potentially destabilizing effects of rapid liberalization of Syrian economy: www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 28/09/2026
Hasan Ghura for Jusoor on scholarly critiques of economic "shock therapy" in the post-Soviet space and risks now for Syria, given its lack of strong institutions and inequitable distribution of economic pain: jusoor.sy/ar/details/%...
jusoor.sy
هل الألم شرط للإصلاح الاقتصادي في سوريا أم ذريعة له؟ مناقشة علمية | جسور للدراسات
هل الألم الاقتصادي حتميّ قبل التعافي؟ وهل تملك نظرية «وادي الدموع» سنداً علمياً كافياً؟
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 27/09/2026
@haidhaid22.bsky.social on Syrian government's fuel price hike and parliamentary attempts at accountability: en.majalla.com/node/333185/...
en.majalla.com
Fuel price hikes and government response anger Syrians
Citizens were already peeved at the rising cost of petrol, but the government's reactive response also raises important questions about the point of parliament
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 27/09/2026
ترجم موقع "نون بوست" مقالي الأخير لـ @foreignaffairs.comحول الضغوط المعيشية المتزايدة في سوريا وسياسات الحكومة: www.noonpost.com/384769/
noonpost.com
سوريا على المحك: كيف يعرّض "العلاج بالصدمة" استقرار ما بعد الأسد للخطر؟
تواجه سوريا أزمة اقتصادية خانقة بعد الأسد، مع ارتفاع أسعار الخبز والوقود والكهرباء والإيجارات وتراجع القوة الشرائية. ويرى المقال أن العلاج بالصدمة الاقتصادي قد يفاقم الفقر والسخط ويهدد استقرار المرحلة...
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
darth™️ @darthbluesky.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
in your next zoom interview have not only a cup of ice coffee but seven or eight different cups of various beverages just off camera and casually drink from each of them throughout the interview the drinks should have fancy straws or colorful parasols or large pieces of fruit on the edge of the cup
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 22/09/2026
My latest for @foreignaffairs.com: On Syria's acute cost-of-living crisis – which I think poses a real danger to the country's political transition – and the ways the Shara' government is making it worse: www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 24/09/2026
قامت "عربي 21" بترجمة مقالتي الأخيرة لموقع @foreignaffairs.com حول الأزمة المعيشية الخانقة في سوريا وعجز الحكومة عن إدارتها: arabi21.com/story/179073...
arabi21.com
المرحلة الانتقالية في سوريا محفوفة بالمخاطر.. "الشرع أخفق اقتصاديا"
وفقاً لاستطلاع أجرته مجلة "سوريا المتجددة" أعرب 52 بالمئة من السوريين عن عدم رضاهم عن أداء حكومتهم في شهر حزيران/ يونيو، وهي نسبة ارتفعت من 44 بالمئة في شهر نيسان/ أبريل.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 24/09/2026
Glad to see my new @foreignaffairs.com piece cited in this @cathrinschaer.bsky.social @omaralbam.bsky.social @deutschewelle.dw.com article on how Syria's postwar economy is leaving ordinary people behind: www.dw.com/en/is-syrias...
dw.com
Syria's economy is growing again. But critics say it's the rich who'll benefit most from current plans.
The Syrian government says it is restructuring the economy and announces prosperity. But ordinary Syrians are not feeling it. In fact, they say their lives are getting worse. Who exactly is likely to ...
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Thomas Sorlie @thomassorlie.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Of all the problems Syria now faces, including intercommunal violence and the possible fragmentation of the country, the economy is the biggest one. Yet the country’s new leadership has insisted on austerity measures that have made the cost of living even more unbearable for the average Syrian."
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 22/09/2026
The Shara government’s austerity measures are making “life harder for ordinary Syrians,” writes @abujamajem.com. “If basic needs are not met soon, people could lose faith in the country’s post-Assad political order.”
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
aljumhuriya.net @aljumhuriya.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Syria’s Energy Ministry called its 13 September fuel price hike “temporary,” citing global costs and refinery maintenance. Minister Mohammed al-Bashir later said the state oil company could no longer finance imports, as Syria shifts toward a market economy. #Syria #Energy
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Syria’s new leaders have successfully navigated daunting political risks, but their haphazard economic policymaking may end up wrecking the post-Assad transition, warns @abujamajem.com in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 22/09/2026
My latest for @foreignaffairs.com: On Syria's acute cost-of-living crisis – which I think poses a real danger to the country's political transition – and the ways the Shara' government is making it worse: www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
0115
Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Le Cagle @lecagle.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
you are *not* prepared for what this technology company is called, nothing can prepare you
wkyt.com
UK installs AI facial scanning technology at residence halls
The University of Kentucky is installing artificial intelligence facial scanning technology on several campus buildings.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
“This is what researchers have long argued: conflict, not poverty, is the main driver of irregular migration” 🤔 Since December 2024, European countries have substantially limited access to asylum.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
Ya, a bunch of goobers got mad at me when I said this at the time: x.com/AbuJamajem/s...
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
An @enabbaladi.bsky.social writeup of the Refai affair includes a comment from Abdullah al-Moheisini who is shocked and saddened to hear that someone would make a link between Salafism and extremism. www.enabbaladi.net/826011/
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
Alex Martin Astley for @thenewarab.bsky.social on Israel-Lebanon negotiations and Israel's occupation of the South: www.newarab.com/analysis/sco... Includes my thoughts.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 20/09/2026
At @syriatransition.bsky.social, @natachadanon.bsky.social argues Syrian government should embrace "New Deal" reconstruction effort and pro-social policy: www.syriaintransition.com/en/home/opin...
syriaintransition.com
Syria in Transition – Syria needs a New Deal
Caught between discredited Ba’thist socialism and predatory neoliberalism, Syria needs a new economic vision that people can rally around.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 20/09/2026
From Wednesday: First syndicated Islamic loan in post-Assad Syria, to fund Bab Msalla tunnel project and part of "Qassioun Journey": sana.sy/economy/syri... Damascus governor says loan was reviewed by Supreme Fatwa Council.
sana.sy
توقيع اتفاقية لإطلاق أول تمويل مصرفي إسلامي ‏مجمع لدعم مشاريع التنمية في دمشق
وُقعت في مبنى وزارة المالية اليوم الأربعاء اتفاقية لإطلاق أول قرض مصرفي مجمع بصيغة التمويل الإسلامي بعد التحرير، للمساهمة في تمويل مشروع نفق المجتهد، باب مصلى، واستكمال مشروع رحلة قاسيون بدمشق.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 20/09/2026
Has anyone written something good about the extent to which Sanaa's armed forces are comprised of factional Houthi structures, versus a reconfigured Yemeni military?
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 19/09/2026
Bashir and Qablawi presser from Thursday provides useful insight into economics of Syrian energy sector: www.youtube.com/watch?v=U930... From ~35:04, Bashir also elaborates on how energy policy fits into Shara' government's broader liberalizing vision for Syrian economy.
youtube.com
التفاصيل الكاملة للمؤتمر الصحفي لوزير الطاقة محمد البشير ومدير الشركة السورية للبترول يوسف قبلاوي
YouTube video by قناة الإخبارية السورية
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/09/2026
@crisisgroup.org's Noah Bonsey and Yazer Othman on the state of northeast Syria integration: www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e... Flags how incorporation into a new, Damascus-led economic regime has made life harder for northeast residents👇🏻 I should have a related piece out next week.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/09/2026
The sequencing and conditionality to which Aziz is now objecting were presumably included in the trilateral agreement because U.S. policymakers do not trust Lebanese leaders.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/09/2026
Presidential advisor Jean Aziz complains that Lebanon is being asked to actually abide by the agreement it signed: www.justsecurity.org/155102/leban...
justsecurity.org
Don’t Let Lebanon’s Peace Agreement Prove Hezbollah Right
As the first serious agreement between Lebanon and Israel stalls, Washington needs to restore reciprocity to the process.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 17/09/2026
“Anything could happen with me” is extremely birdbrained
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Grudgie the Whale @grudgie.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The dumbest asshole in the country and the President need to be two different people moving forward
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
It's important at CIP that we float new concepts, and I couldn't be prouder of this one. New Zealand has an opportunity to rebuild its navy in a way that better meets local needs while keeping it away from an obligation to join big wars. They should take it. internationalpolicy.org/publications...
internationalpolicy.org
Rebuilding New Zealand’s Navy for Security, Not Aggression - CIP
A frigate-less New Zealand navy can avoid sunk costs and create a non-provocative defense strategy for the 21st century
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 16/09/2026
In @thenation.com: new @cipolicy.bsky.social colleague @mattduss.bsky.social on how the Democratic Party continues to elevate Middle East hawks to positions of foreign policy leadership, in defiance of the party voters' expressed preference: www.thenation.com/article/worl...
thenation.com
The Reality Today Is That Foreign Policy Hawks Are a Minority in the Democratic Party
It is damn time we all started acting like it.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Matt Duss @mattduss.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Democratic voters are overwhelmingly anti-war, yet foreign policy hawks remain massively overrepresented in leadership roles. It’s a problem we need to fix. My piece in @thenation.com www.thenation.com/article/worl...
thenation.com
The Reality Today Is That Foreign Policy Hawks Are a Minority in the Democratic Party
It is damn time we all started acting like it.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Soldiers of the IDF Nahal Brigade’s 50th Battalion describe their deputy battalion commander, Maj. Mendi Lasri, after being wounded early on in Gaza, ordering the execution of a blindfolded Gazan woman, pioneering the use of “Mosquito” human shields, and torturing a wounded prisoner
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 15/09/2026
Hama governorate launches first package of "Syria Without Camps" projects in Sahl al-Ghab: www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-mK...
youtube.com
محافظة حماة تطلق الحزمة الأولى من مشاريع "سوريا بلا مخيمات" في 70 بلدة وقرية
YouTube video by Syrianarabnewsagency
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 14/09/2026
Syrian deputy economy minister said yesterday increased fuel prices wouldn't affect bread bundle price or weight; ministry has lowered price of flour to compensate for additional production cost, effectively raising bread subsidies: sana.sy/economy/syri...
sana.sy
نائب وزير الاقتصاد يؤكد ثبات سعر ووزن ربطة الخبز رغم ارتفاع أسعار المحروقات
أكد نائب وزير الاقتصاد والصناعة المهندس ماهر الحسن عدم وجود أي تغيير على سعر ربطة الخبز ولا على وزنها، بشكل قاطع ونهائي، رغم ارتفاع أسعار المحروقات على إثر الارتفاع الأخير في أسعار النفط عالمياً.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Abu Aardvark @abuaardvark.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
“No amount of public support in polling or public protest will influence how or when those in power drastically change Israel policy.” Fascinating, tell me more.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 13/09/2026
In March, Hizbullah justified return to open war with Israel partly in terms of Lebanese authorities' failure to halt near-daily Israeli attacks over preceding 15 months:
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 13/09/2026
"Senior Lebanese official" tells Times of Israel that Israeli actions in south Lebanon are making it harder for Lebanese authorities to collaborate; says Israel should revert to targeted strikes as during fifteen months following November 2024: www.timesofisrael.com/lebanese-off...
timesofisrael.com
Lebanese official to ToI: ‘Indiscriminate’ IDF strikes hinder Hezbollah disarmament
In rare engagement with Israeli news outlet, official from Beirut says widescale destruction in south Lebanon delegitimizing country's efforts to collaborate with Israel against Iran-backed group
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 13/09/2026
Syrian energy ministry justifies large increase in fuel prices based on increased prices globally and ongoing repairs to Baniyas refinery, necessitating more imports; provides figures on local production versus import requirements: sana.sy/reports/2579...
sana.sy
وزارة الطاقة: ارتفاع أسعار المشتقات النفطية إجراء مؤقت لضمان استمرار الإمدادات
وزارة الطاقة: ارتفاع أسعار المشتقات النفطية في سوريا مرتبط بارتفاع كلفة ‏المنتجات المكررة عالمياً وعمرة مصفاة بانياس، والتعديل مؤقت لضمان استمرار ‏الإمدادات.‏
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 13/09/2026
Belated September 11 reflection: all-time stupid policy decision and analytical error to respond to an attack by this narrow vanguardist organization, with no real popular base, by entering conflict with the broader Arab/Muslim world and pathologizing popular opposition to U.S. policies. 1/2
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Micah @rincewind.run · 11/09/2026
“the Houthis are trying to resist the American empire” bluesky: :) “they’re using Claude to do it” bluesky: >:(
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 11/09/2026
Hilarious
In the Israel-Hamas conflict, do you support more Israel or more Hamas?
74%
July: 77%
26%
Column %
Israel
Hamas
Column %
Israel
Hamas
Israel
DEM
67%
33%
18-24
40%
60%
• Hamas
GOP
82%
18%
25-34
65%
35%
35-44
70%
30%
IND/OTH
74%
26%
45-54
74%
26%
55-64
84%
16%
65+
89%
11%
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Then again, how could anyone possibly have foreseen that Iran, of all countries, would respond violently and asymmetrically to U.S. economic pressure
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 10/09/2026
Benjamin Feve on Syrian authorities' resort to Sham Cash to pay part of dues to farmers for wheat harvest: www.syriadispatch.com/p/wheat-harv...
syriadispatch.com
Wheat Self-Sufficiency Declared While Farmers Wait and Sham Cash Takes On a Quarter of Their Dues
Wheat abundance, payment shortage: Why the Northeast's harvest recovery is already at risk
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Again: the US’s regional base network is not secure. Aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti sustained damage despite a large spray of winnowing Patriot stock. The bases can’t be feasibly secured in short order and will be otherwise untenable if/when resources would permit sustainment. They are, in effect, gone
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 08/09/2026
@crampell.bsky.social Hello! Just listened to your last Receipts pod with JVL. On gold reserves: sounds like what the Europeans are concerned about is a lot like what the Trump administration did to Iraq earlier this year: www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Exclusive | U.S. Blocks Iraq’s Dollar Shipments to Squeeze Its Iran-Backed Militias
The Trump administration also suspended security cooperation with Baghdad in an escalating pressure campaign.
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Reposted by Sam Heller | سام هيلر
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
This particular statement might not be much to get worked up about, but I suspect the phenomenon it represents—frustrated conservatism as both fuel & vehicle for contestation, latching onto symbolic affronts to wage culture war—will be a big thing in Syria’s not-distant future.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 06/09/2026
Smart, worthwhile paper by @rajanbasra.bsky.social and Craig Larkin on Jabhat al-Nusrah and IS abduction of Lebanese security personnel in Arsal: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
More Than Bargaining Chips: How Jabhat Al-Nusra and Islamic State Kidnapped and Used Hostages in Lebanon
This paper presents an empirical examination of the Arsal hostage crisis in Lebanon, when Jabhat Al-Nusra and Islamic State kidnapped over 35 soldiers and police officers in 2014. Following intervi...
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