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JD Menton

@jdmenton.bsky.social
577 followers 187 following 39 posts

Fellow @ Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Policy Program; nukes, non-pro, and tech governance; recovering journalist, itinerant Floridian

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Reposted by JD Menton
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe. New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...
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Reposted by JD Menton
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 27/02/2026
A U.S. attack on Iran can have limitations: “If you want to get the IAEA back in there in a meaningful way, military strikes just don’t really help you with that,” explains @jdmenton.bsky.social 👇️
buff.ly
Rash: Trump should level with Americans about Iran
Trump missed the chance in his State of the Union address Tuesday night to offer clarity to the country about America’s military buildup in the Middle East, John Rash writes.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
The current iteration of this crisis is about more than just the nuclear file, but metastatic uncertainty about Iran's nuclear capabilities still bodes poorly for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
In light of the SOTU's unspecified references to Iranian nuclear activities, re-upping an article I wrote for @foreignpolicy.com after the 12 Day War about the need to restore nuclear oversight if all parties aspire to more than a temporary respite between crises.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/02/2026
Iran's foreign minister reported "good progress" in nuclear talks with the U.S. this week. But amid U.S. military buildup in the region, tensions with regulators, and pressure within Iran, what should we make of statements like this? @jdmenton.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/qANNr...
youtube.com
The U.S. and Iran: Talks and Tensions
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Reposted by JD Menton
Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Great piece by Zadie Smith. When the right talks about classics or "Western" culture, these works are only important to the extent that it demonstrates their superiority, they have no interest in art in and of itself beyond that www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
You know a country by its values. By what a country values. And it turns out that what a country values can change over time. Sometimes, though, there’s a sort of cognitive delay between the country you think you are in, and the country you’ve actually become. For example, you can keep selling yourself, to foreigners, as the country of William Shakespeare and Jane Austen, and luring busloads of tourists to Stratford-upon-Avon and Bath, and put a statue of George Orwell in front of the BBC, and imagine yourself a cultured and literate nation, which the rest of the world admires for its devotion to the written word – but if you then chronically underfund your cultural institutions, and treat your cultural workers with contempt, many people will suspect you of being full of it. And as the decades pass – and fewer and fewer Shakespeares and Austens and Orwells emerge from your little island – even more people will begin to suspect that in truth you do not value culture at all, and are in fact running a giant heritage museum in which the only cultural workers you respect are the dead ones.
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Corey Hinderstein @coreyah.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 30/10/2025
Resuming U.S. nuclear testing, as President Trump has suggested, “would do more to benefit our adversaries than the United States," says @coreyah.bsky.social on @npr.org. More from Corey on why: www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
npr.org
Trump says he wants to resume nuclear testing. Here's what that would mean
The U.S. has not conducted a nuclear test in over 30 years. Experts say doing one now could make America less safe.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Carnegie Nuclear Policy @carnegienpp.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Read @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @jdmenton.bsky.social piece, "MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition", in a series of essays by @tnsr.org on the shifting global nuclear order. Check it out here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
tnsr.org
Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review
The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Full piece here @carnegieendowment.org : carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
What Iran Should Learn from Iraq’s Escalation Playbook in the 1990s
Curtailing cooperation with the global nuclear order may be provocative, but it is not necessarily productive.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Given the stakes, restoring some degree of transparency/confidence is vital, despite the clear political and at this point technical hurdles. But success requires Iranian buy-in. Without cooperation, nuclear ambiguity will undermine regional stability for years to come.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
The "12 day war" has dramatically amplified the risks I wrote about back in October. What baselines remained are now gone. We just don't know how much damage the war caused, or how many capabilities Iran has retained (and can readily access).
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
This decision also increases the burden on natl intelligence services, and our dependence on their conclusions (and how policymakers interpret them). That intel assessments are already being contested publicly between members of the same administration is not reassuring.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Iran is not Iraq (for one thing, its nuclear program is far more advanced). But history suggests that curtailing oversight yields limited leverage and incurs major liabilities. Even if Iran doesn't sprint for the bomb, it will struggle to convince others it has abandoned pursuit.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
At first the consequences seemed minimal (SH had already concluded compliance wouldn't beget sanctions relief), but ambiguity festered. Saddam's repudiation of intl oversight ultimately rendered contestable claims and interpretations more credible, easing the path to war in 2003.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Saddam Hussein followed a similar playbook after the first Gulf War (when UN/IAEA inspectors were tasked with dismantling his covert nuclear weapons program). Eventually, intransigence triggered targeted strikes on Iraqi military facilities + the loss of inspector access.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
The decision isn't surprising, especially given the sequencing of the BoG determination of non-compliance and the Israeli/US strikes. It also fits a longer pattern of Tehran wielding access as a diplomatic cudgel post the US exit from the JCPOA.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
In the fall, I wrote a piece for @carnegienpp.bsky.social about the hazards of playing political football with international oversight. Today, Iran's president announced the suspension of cooperation w/ the #IAEA. 🧵
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Me in @carnegieendowment.org’s Diwan: The end of open hostilities has not brought clarity to Iran’s strategic direction. Instead, it has exposed an ongoing effort within the political and military establishment over how to interpret the war’s outcome. carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
carnegieendowment.org
Iran After the Battle
The country’s political and military establishment is still debating how to interpret the recent war’s outcome.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 30/06/2025
“In the absence of cooperation, future crises will be hard to avoid and even harder to de-escalate.” @jdmenton.bsky.social on nuclear uncertainty – and the need for diplomacy – in Iran, for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Really great piece, and perspective, from @nktpnd.bsky.social
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
"In the days and weeks to come, policymakers will have to carefully distinguish between Iran’s legitimate frustrations and domestic political constraints and attempts to manipulate these conditions to mask clandestine proliferation ambitions."
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
In @foreignpolicy.com I wrote about Iran and why nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability. Unclear diplomatic priorities + backlash against the IAEA w/in Iran are setting us down a dangerous path. @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Tired: JCPOA 2.0... Wired: KEDO 2.0
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Even if Iran never reconstitutes a nuclear weapons program, this is not something that we can take for granted, and without some degree of international oversight, speculation and suspicion is likely to fester. The pretext for the next intervention practically writes itself.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
It is, however, a problem. Iran's nuclear program was highly sophisticated, and re-establishing verification baselines matters. US and Israeli intel is clearly very good, but exclusively relying on it (or what leaders say it says) is risky (just look at the Iraq War, or Trump/Tulsi).
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Meanwhile, in Iran, the Majlis passed a bill, calling for the suspension of Iran's cooperation with the IAEA. This is not surprising, given that the US (a nuclear weapons state) and Israel (an undeclared nuclear weapons state), just attacked a number of facilities under IAEA safeguards.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
That's because the strikes have created a lot of uncertainty! (and some "known unknowns," e.g. the fate of Iran's HEU stockpiles, are pretty concerning). Earlier today, however, Trump essentially said that the crisis was over, and any diplomatic commitments would essentially be superfluous.
wsj.com
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Live Updates: Trump Says Iranian Nuclear Deal Isn’t Necessary After U.S. Strikes
The Iran-Israel cease-fire appears to hold in the Middle East. President Trump pushed back on an intelligence report saying the strikes only set back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by a few months. Follow...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
News media and social media are already saturated with speculation about the state of Iran's nuclear program (how much did the US/Israel destroy, how quickly could they reconstitute, will the regime pursue the bomb or not)
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Some thoughts about Trump's comments today re further nuclear diplomacy with Iran + the Majlis bill to suspend Iran's cooperation with the IAEA (tldr: individually: bad, together: very bad!)
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Huge congrats, Tristan. Richly deserved.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Per Rose's remarks, she's the opposite of Oz- what's behind the curtain is even better than what's on screen. Richly deserved award, and moving presentation.
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Reposted by JD Menton
James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
IAEA Director General Grossi and @coreyah.bsky.social (my new boss!) take the stage at #nukecon.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
At the Carnegie nonproliferation conference and IAEA chief Rafael M. Grossi spent a bit of time making the case for nuclear-propulsion in commercial shipping. Really interesting.
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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
My colleague, @jdmenton.bsky.social, opens #nukecon.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
There are a few ways this could play out- some worse than others, but any further blow to oversight of Iran's nuclear program would ultimately yield minimal leverage... and huge risks. Working to restore what has been lost, and align M&V with Iran's current capabilities would be mutually beneficial.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
🚨2 days left to register for the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference!!🚨 Ft phenomenal speakers on nuclear energy, missile defense, US proliferation policy, Russian nuclear doctrine + more @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, disarmament, deterrence, energy, and security at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
"Signal, signaling and perception"
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 17/03/2025
DOGE cuts at the top U.S. nuclear security agency could enable threats to national security. @coreyah.bsky.social explained in @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/u...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
After the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran began walking back its commitments under that arrangement, while insisting that it would still comply with its prior safeguards agreement. That distinction (JCPOA versus CSA) is implied here (though of course murkier in practice).
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
As @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social points out, Russia and China aren't keen for an Iranian NPT withdrawal, and these public assertions are notable, though if the E3 trigger snapback we may find out how deep they run
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
The statements about the NPT and IAEA are interesting. As I've written previously, playing political football with nuclear oversight regimes rarely ends well. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
What Iran Should Learn from Iraq’s Escalation Playbook in the 1990s
Curtailing cooperation with the global nuclear order may be provocative, but it is not necessarily productive.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Trilateral statement from Russia, China, and Iran on the status of Iran’s nuclear program—a clear signal of their effort to preempt a response to potential snapback sanctions. 🧵
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
"The three countries stressed the necessity for all states to refrain from any action that undermine the technical, objective and impartial work of the IAEA"
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
@nktpnd.bsky.social very kindly had me on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast a few weeks ago to chat about Iran's nuclear program, and what we might see from Tehran, Washington, and the region in the coming months.
warontherocks.com
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
On Ankit Panda's very good nuke podcast Thinking the Unthinkable, he hosts his fellow Carnegie fellow Jane Darby Menton to discuss the Trump Redux era U.S. approach to Iran's nuclear program. @nktpnd.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
warontherocks.com
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
My piece with Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs on Russia-Iran-Israel dynamics, Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear program, and the options for US policy going forward www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/will-...
foreignaffairs.com
Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear?
Trump’s “maximum pressure” could push Tehran and Moscow even closer.
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