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JD Menton

@jdmenton.bsky.social
577 followers 187 following 39 posts

Fellow @ Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Policy Program; nukes, non-pro, and tech governance; recovering journalist, itinerant Floridian

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Reposted by JD Menton
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe. New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 27/02/2026
A U.S. attack on Iran can have limitations: “If you want to get the IAEA back in there in a meaningful way, military strikes just don’t really help you with that,” explains @jdmenton.bsky.social 👇️
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Rash: Trump should level with Americans about Iran
Trump missed the chance in his State of the Union address Tuesday night to offer clarity to the country about America’s military buildup in the Middle East, John Rash writes.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
In light of the SOTU's unspecified references to Iranian nuclear activities, re-upping an article I wrote for @foreignpolicy.com after the 12 Day War about the need to restore nuclear oversight if all parties aspire to more than a temporary respite between crises.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/02/2026
Iran's foreign minister reported "good progress" in nuclear talks with the U.S. this week. But amid U.S. military buildup in the region, tensions with regulators, and pressure within Iran, what should we make of statements like this? @jdmenton.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/qANNr...
youtube.com
The U.S. and Iran: Talks and Tensions
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Great piece by Zadie Smith. When the right talks about classics or "Western" culture, these works are only important to the extent that it demonstrates their superiority, they have no interest in art in and of itself beyond that www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
You know a country by its values. By what a country values. And it turns out that what a country values can change over time. Sometimes, though, there’s a sort of cognitive delay between the country you think you are in, and the country you’ve actually become. For example, you can keep selling yourself, to foreigners, as the country of William Shakespeare and Jane Austen, and luring busloads of tourists to Stratford-upon-Avon and Bath, and put a statue of George Orwell in front of the BBC, and imagine yourself a cultured and literate nation, which the rest of the world admires for its devotion to the written word – but if you then chronically underfund your cultural institutions, and treat your cultural workers with contempt, many people will suspect you of being full of it. And as the decades pass – and fewer and fewer Shakespeares and Austens and Orwells emerge from your little island – even more people will begin to suspect that in truth you do not value culture at all, and are in fact running a giant heritage museum in which the only cultural workers you respect are the dead ones.
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Corey Hinderstein @coreyah.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 30/10/2025
Resuming U.S. nuclear testing, as President Trump has suggested, “would do more to benefit our adversaries than the United States," says @coreyah.bsky.social on @npr.org. More from Corey on why: www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
npr.org
Trump says he wants to resume nuclear testing. Here's what that would mean
The U.S. has not conducted a nuclear test in over 30 years. Experts say doing one now could make America less safe.
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Carnegie Nuclear Policy @carnegienpp.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Read @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @jdmenton.bsky.social piece, "MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition", in a series of essays by @tnsr.org on the shifting global nuclear order. Check it out here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
tnsr.org
Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review
The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
In the fall, I wrote a piece for @carnegienpp.bsky.social about the hazards of playing political football with international oversight. Today, Iran's president announced the suspension of cooperation w/ the #IAEA. 🧵
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Me in @carnegieendowment.org’s Diwan: The end of open hostilities has not brought clarity to Iran’s strategic direction. Instead, it has exposed an ongoing effort within the political and military establishment over how to interpret the war’s outcome. carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
carnegieendowment.org
Iran After the Battle
The country’s political and military establishment is still debating how to interpret the recent war’s outcome.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 30/06/2025
“In the absence of cooperation, future crises will be hard to avoid and even harder to de-escalate.” @jdmenton.bsky.social on nuclear uncertainty – and the need for diplomacy – in Iran, for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Really great piece, and perspective, from @nktpnd.bsky.social
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
"In the days and weeks to come, policymakers will have to carefully distinguish between Iran’s legitimate frustrations and domestic political constraints and attempts to manipulate these conditions to mask clandestine proliferation ambitions."
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
In @foreignpolicy.com I wrote about Iran and why nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability. Unclear diplomatic priorities + backlash against the IAEA w/in Iran are setting us down a dangerous path. @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Tired: JCPOA 2.0... Wired: KEDO 2.0
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Some thoughts about Trump's comments today re further nuclear diplomacy with Iran + the Majlis bill to suspend Iran's cooperation with the IAEA (tldr: individually: bad, together: very bad!)
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Per Rose's remarks, she's the opposite of Oz- what's behind the curtain is even better than what's on screen. Richly deserved award, and moving presentation.
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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
IAEA Director General Grossi and @coreyah.bsky.social (my new boss!) take the stage at #nukecon.
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Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
At the Carnegie nonproliferation conference and IAEA chief Rafael M. Grossi spent a bit of time making the case for nuclear-propulsion in commercial shipping. Really interesting.
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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
My colleague, @jdmenton.bsky.social, opens #nukecon.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
There are a few ways this could play out- some worse than others, but any further blow to oversight of Iran's nuclear program would ultimately yield minimal leverage... and huge risks. Working to restore what has been lost, and align M&V with Iran's current capabilities would be mutually beneficial.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
🚨2 days left to register for the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference!!🚨 Ft phenomenal speakers on nuclear energy, missile defense, US proliferation policy, Russian nuclear doctrine + more @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, disarmament, deterrence, energy, and security at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.
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Reposted by JD Menton
Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 17/03/2025
DOGE cuts at the top U.S. nuclear security agency could enable threats to national security. @coreyah.bsky.social explained in @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/u...
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Trilateral statement from Russia, China, and Iran on the status of Iran’s nuclear program—a clear signal of their effort to preempt a response to potential snapback sanctions. 🧵
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
"The three countries stressed the necessity for all states to refrain from any action that undermine the technical, objective and impartial work of the IAEA"
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
@nktpnd.bsky.social very kindly had me on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast a few weeks ago to chat about Iran's nuclear program, and what we might see from Tehran, Washington, and the region in the coming months.
warontherocks.com
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
On Ankit Panda's very good nuke podcast Thinking the Unthinkable, he hosts his fellow Carnegie fellow Jane Darby Menton to discuss the Trump Redux era U.S. approach to Iran's nuclear program. @nktpnd.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
warontherocks.com
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
My piece with Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs on Russia-Iran-Israel dynamics, Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear program, and the options for US policy going forward www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/will-...
foreignaffairs.com
Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear?
Trump’s “maximum pressure” could push Tehran and Moscow even closer.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
YPT is a phenomenal opportunity for students and young professionals to engage directly with high-level nuclear experts and practitioners from around the world. You don't want to miss this one (and for my fellow academics, please share with your students!) carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 30 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
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Nuclear Threat Initiative @nti.org · 26/11/2024
Amid increasingly tense geopolitics, growing nuclear threats, and risks posed by rapidly evolving technologies, @BelferCenter & @CarnegieEndow & NTI have established a new high-level Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and U.S. National Security.
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
#Nukesky if you’re a PhD student, postdoc, or junior faculty, apply to be a Stanton Fellow with the @carnegieendow.bsky.social’s Nuclear Policy Program. Applications are due on Dec 20. Happy to talk about it for those who are interested. carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/3572279
carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship  - Washington, DC
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a unique global network of policy research centers is accepting applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow...
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Katelynn Vogt @katelynnvogt.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
@carnegieendow.bsky.social's nuke team is assembling! Be sure to follow the best team in the business: @jamiekwong.bsky.social, @tongzhao.bsky.social, @lrand11.bsky.social, @jdmenton.bsky.social, @nktpnd.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Some of my colleagues from @carnegieendow.bsky.social’s Nuclear Policy Program are now on BlueSky: @jdmenton.bsky.social @jamiekwong.bsky.social @tongzhao.bsky.social @nktpnd.bsky.social
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Iran still trying to thread the needle- deploying more advanced centrifuges (and gesturing to vague other options). Unclear if the (limited) measures reported yesterday re 60 percent stockpiles and inspector designations are already defunct.
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Capping the stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium is probably a signal, but it carries little substantive weight at this point. In expanding its nuclear program, Tehran has degraded some of the tools it uses to indicate diplomatic openings. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-agree...
diplomatic.substack.com
Iran agreed to cap 60% stockpile, IAEA chief says
‘I made a request for Iran to stop increasing the stockpile of 60%, and this was accepted by Iran,” IAEA DG Rafael Grossi said.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 15/11/2024
Hi Bluesky! 👋🏼 We're the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Our 170+ global experts generate independent analysis that looks beyond the day-to-day news cycle to understand the issues impacting international peace and security. Find our experts here: go.bsky.app/TqJjwX4
go.bsky.app
Carnegie Endowment
Join the conversation
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Lindsay Rand @lrand11.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Nuclear policy starter pack for folks coming from other socials. Will update regularly. go.bsky.app/BWGGzgX
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/11/2024
Today, along with our partners at @belfercenter.bsky.social & NTI, Carnegie is pleased to announce a new high-level Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and U.S. National Security. carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Given today's reporting on Iran's nuclear program, reupping a piece I wrote for @carnegieendow.bsky.social on why weaponizing inspector access for leverage is a bad idea (and resolving outstanding issues would be in everyone's interest) carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
What Iran Should Learn from Iraq’s Escalation Playbook in the 1990s
Curtailing cooperation with the global nuclear order may be provocative, but it is not necessarily productive.
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Andrew Reddie @areddie.bsky.social · 22/02/2024
We are delighted to have launched the Risk Calculus @BerkeleyRisk--a new series that seeks to bring you some of the best and brightest working at the intersection of #technology, politics, and #security. In this series, we focus on the past, present, and future of #wargaming: Shall We Play a Game?
podcasts.apple.com
‎The Risk Calculus on Apple Podcasts
‎Education · 2024
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JD Menton @jdmenton.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
Event for Bay Area nuke folks!! We're hosting Mallory Stewart for a conversation about the future of nuclear arms control. RSVP here! www.eventbrite.com/e/the-future...
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 11/10/2023
This WSJ article is dangerously wrong in asserting that some of the ships accompanying the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford “have nuclear capabilities.” US Navy surface vessels have not been armed with nuclear weapons since 1992, after President George H.W. Bush ordered their unilateral retirement.
wsj.com
U.S. Weighs Deploying Second Aircraft Carrier Group
The U.S. may deploy a second aircraft carrier near Israel, U.S. defense officials said, an escalation of the U.S. military effort to deter regional powers from joining the war between Hamas and Israel...
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