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Eric Brewer

@ebrewer.bsky.social
2K followers 227 following 106 posts

Deputy VP at Nuclear Threat Initiative. Previously Director for Counterproliferation at the National Security Council and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for WMD at the National Intelligence Council. Personal account/views my own.

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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
One of the more interesting bits in this article is the claim that intelligence first emerged in early 2023 that Iran was exploring a faster pathway to a crude nuclear device. Previous reports pegged that development in late 2024/early 2025. 1/ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Killing the ‘brain trust’: How Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear scientists
A Washington Post-PBS Frontline investigation reveals new details about Israel’s Operation Narnia, targeting Iran’s nuclear scientists during the 12-day war.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Told Francois Murphy that "a strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you're talking about buying time and there's a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb.” www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Would military strikes kill Iran's nuclear programme? Probably not
The recent U.S. deployment of B-2 bombers, the only planes able to launch the most powerful bunker-busting bombs, to within range of Iran is a potent signal to Tehran of what could happen to its nuclear programme if no deal is reached to rein it in.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Lots of focus on what the U.S. end goal should be as part of nuclear talks with Iran. Fair. But Witkoff needs to staff up, and fast. These talks are highly technical and he’s going to need both nuclear and sanctions experts. Doing otherwise is courting disaster.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Sec Wright: “We’ve not reached the details on an agreement, but it certainly looks like there is a pathway to do that…The issue is control of sensitive technology. Are there solutions to that that involve enrichment here in Saudi Arabia? Yes.” www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...
nytimes.com
U.S. Revives Talks With Saudi Arabia on Transfer of Nuclear Technology
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he sees a “pathway” to a deal that would allow the kingdom to develop a commercial nuclear power industry and potentially enrich uranium.
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Nuclear Threat Initiative @nti.org · 11/04/2025
“You can remove centrifuges, but you can't remove that knowledge... Even if you remove those machines and dilute and cap the material, Iran is starting from a much more advanced place today than it was in 2015," says NTI's @ebrewer.bsky.social ⤵️
al-monitor.com
How Iran’s nuclear gains complicate Trump's desire for a 'stronger' deal
President Trump says he's seeking an Iranian nuclear deal stronger than the one he trashed in his first term. But with Iran's nuclear program more advanced than ever before, is that even possible?
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Quoted: “There is growing doubt among allies and partners about whether the United States will meet its defense commitments when the chips are down…But there are a lot of other systemic factors driving countries to talk about developing nuclear weapons.” www.politico.com/news/magazin...
politico.com
Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War
The threat of U.S. withdrawal has prompted countries around the world — from Germany to South Korea — to talk about building their own nuclear arsenals.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
As I predicted last week. www.axios.com/2025/04/10/i...
axios.com
Scoop: Iran wants to explore interim nuclear deal in talks with U.S., sources say
President Trump has set a two-month deadline for negotiations with Iran on a new nuclear deal.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Advisor to the Supreme Leader 👇 The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Sanctioning Iranian entities involved in enrichment ahead of U.S.-Iran talks certainly seems like a signal to Tehran that Washington has no intention of accepting that enrichment program under any agreement. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
Treasury Imposes Sanctions on Enablers of Iran’s Nuclear Program
WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating five entities and one individual based in Iran for their support to key entities that manage...
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Far more important than whether US-Iran talks are direct or indirect is how the Trump admin approaches these first meetings. Does it frame its goal as making sure Iran can’t produce a nuclear weapon? Or that Iran needs to dismantle its entire nuclear infrastructure? 1/
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Tensions between Iran and the US are heating up. The US is flowing more forces into the region as both sides exchange threats. Direct talks appear unlikely for now, and time for a deal is short. How might Khamenei manage what is likely to be a perilous ~6 months? I see four options. 1/
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Quite the line here in the Annual Threat Assessment: “Iranian leaders recognize the country is at one of its most fragile points since the Iran-Iraq War”
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Although largely overshadowed by the Signal debacle in today’s hearing, the IC’s Annual Threat Assessment is worth reading. Interesting info in particular on Iran’s strategic situation in the region, Russia/Ukraine, and Russia-Iran-China-DPRK collab. www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
dni.gov
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
I think the seemingly different takes by Waltz and Witkoff over the goals of U.S. Iran policy stem at least in part from the fact that Trump himself has been inconsistent on this issue. www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...
cbsnews.com
Transcript: National Security Adviser Mike Waltz "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," March 23, 2025
The following is the transcript of an interview with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on March 23, 2025.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Pleased to share my thoughts with Patrick Tucker for his piece on the growing risk of proliferation by U.S. allies, including some of the challenges and risks they would face in actually developing nuclear weapons. www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...
defenseone.com
Experts fear cascade of nuclear proliferation as Trump shakes alliances
U.S. allies contemplate the once-unthinkable: building their own nuclear arsenals.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
With the U.S. tilt toward Russia (and away from Europe) and reports of Russia acting as an intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, what are the implications for nuclear talks and a new deal with Tehran? A few thoughts. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Putin Agrees to Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks With Iran
Russia agreed to assist US President Donald Trump’s administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its support for regional anti-US proxies, a...
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Poland’s PM calls for the development of nuclear weapons.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Via Ulrich Kühn.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
"Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not 'off the table' for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday"
nknews.org
In shift, South Korea’s top diplomat says nuclear armament ‘not off the table’ | NK News
Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not “off the table” for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday, appearing to shift his rhetoric on the issue amid concerns…
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Lots to digest here, but let’s not overlook that it’s now late Feb and there’s been no conversation between IAEA DG Grossi and the Trump admin. With Iran’s program growing and major decisions looming, U.S. needs to get its house in order on Iran policy. And fast. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Iran Has Enough Highly Enriched Uranium for Six Nuclear Weapons
Iran has sharply increased its stockpile of a critical raw material for atomic weapons, according to a confidential U.N. report.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
“These officials wrote that they ‘will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans' sensitive data, or dismantle critical public services.’” www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...
cbsnews.com
21 DOGE staffers, whose employment predated Musk agency, resign
The officials wrote in a letter that they "will not lend our expertise to carry out or legitimize DOGE's actions."
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
This isn’t about accountability. It’s a campaign of harassment—carried out by an unelected and unappointed individual— designed to demoralize the federal workforce and drive people to quit.
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Yashar Ali 🐘 @yasharali.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Dmitry Medvedev, the former President of Russia and the Deputy Chair of the Security Council, on President Trump’s post about Ukraine and Zelenskyy this morning.

Dmitry Medvedev &
@MedvedevRussiaE
"A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left." If you'd told me just three months ago that these were the words of the US president, I would have laughed out loud. @realDonaldTrump is 200 percent right.
Bankrupt clown...
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
The common thread here is that you if you don't like what Trump is doing, don't just complain and wait. Take action now to regain the initiative -- and inspire others to do the same!
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Our European allies can act, too. The most powerful step they can take is to actually seize the $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets they've frozen before Trump tries to surrender them. That would immediately give Europe leverage in negotiations. 7/
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
If pro-Ukraine Republicans are too chicken to legislate, they can still speak out -- tell the administration now your minimum conditions for a just deal, from real security guarantees for Ukraine, to no permanent bar on NATO membership, to the return of kidnapped kids. 6/
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Remember that in the House, Democrats have the leverage to make some of these things happen alone. If Republicans need their help to pass that next gov't funding bill, they should also insist that all appropriated funds (including for Ukraine) be spent as Congress directs. 5/
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
While you're at it, bar any financial arrangement for the exploitation of Ukraine's natural resources, or for any joint investment in oil, gas, or minerals with Russia, without it being submitted to Congress for approval. 4/
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Put a provision in the next gov't funding bill that prohibits spending funds to withdraw US troops from Poland & the Baltic States unless Russia is no longer a threat. Congress passed a version of this to stop first term Trump from withdrawing troops from Korea. 3/
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Tom Malinowski @tommalinowski.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
In 2017, Congress passed & Trump signed a law that says if the president wants to lift Russia sanctions or return embassy property, he must seek Congressional approval. Make clear now that you'll vote to block approval if Trump's "deal" betrays our values and allies. congress.gov/bill/115th-c... 2/
congress.gov
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
“The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Israel likely to strike Iran in coming months, warns U.S. intelligence
A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would present an early test for President Trump, who campaigned on restoring peace while touting his support for Israel.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Those familiar with the history of nuclear proliferation will know that scientists engaging in “unauthorized” work is not uncommon and the line between what is allowed and what is not, and what requires approval can often be blurry. And hedging strategies often operate in these grey areas.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Seems like the possibility that Iranian scientists are carrying out nuclear weapons work without political approval should be getting more attention: “Some units in Iran’s programme are thought to be conducting research without telling policymakers.” www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
Iran’s alarming nuclear dash will soon test Donald Trump
There is no plausible civilian use for the enhanced uranium Iran is producing
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William Gallo @williamgallo.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
This is the same guy who wanted nukes really bad
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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
For my 1st piece since leaving government, I partnered w/ @richardmnephew.bsky.social on a piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We take stock of where we are on Iran, and where we should go, including steps to prevent a nuke & reconstitution of the proxy network. warontherocks.com/2025/02/trum...
warontherocks.com
Trump Has a Rare and Short Window to Solve the Iran Problem — Here’s How - War on the Rocks
Donald Trump is likely the last president that will get a chance to stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal. Will he succeed? Tehran has been on the
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
If Iran decides it needs nuclear weapons, it still faces a rather lengthy window of vulnerability in trying to get there. Looks like Iranian scientists are trying to shrink that window which, in turn, could lessen the risks of such a decision to weaponize. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/u...
nytimes.com
Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes
As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel prepares to meet with President Trump, the question of whether to strike Iran’s facilities or negotiate with Tehran appears certain to be under debate.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
I think a lot of people make the mistake of assuming civil servants dislike and therefore will work to oppose a particular policy/approach/decision. Sure. But what they are *really* allergic to is bad/non-existent process. 1/
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
The most worrisome part of the DOGE takeover of federal agencies is that the headlines probably only capture a fraction of what is actually taking place.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Lots of speculation (and advocacy) earlier that Trump would use tariffs on China as part of a new “max pressure” strategy to force an end to Beijing’s purchases of Iranian oil. No sign of that here. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
whitehouse.gov
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China – The White House
ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Are there any articles out there that examine the legal/statutory basis by which DOGE is asking for these and other accesses? Even if a gov org, you don’t just get to waltz in and assert whatever prerogative you’d like. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/u...
nytimes.com
Elon Musk’s Team Now Has Access to Treasury’s Payments System
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave Mr. Musk’s representatives at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency a powerful tool to monitor and potentially limit government spending.
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Yashar Ali 🐘 @yasharali.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
NEWS Aides to Elon Musk charged with running the U.S. government human resources agency have locked career civil servants out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal employees
bit.ly
Exclusive: Musk aides lock government workers out of computer systems at US agency, sources say
Aides to Elon Musk charged with running the U.S. government human resources agency have locked career civil servants out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal employees, according to two agency officials.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Repairing the damage and healing the wounds of January 6th would have required unequivocal and consistent condemnation by elected officials, holding those involved accountable, and society rejecting those who support or sympathize with 1/6. We’ve sadly and worryingly chosen the opposite.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Defenders of Trump’s Iran policy have long argued that Iran’s nuclear program accelerated more under Biden than Trump because Iran was deterred (ie, scared about the US response) under the latter but not the former. We’re about to test that theory. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran has about 200 kg of uranium enriched to near bomb-grade, Grossi says
Iran currently has about 200 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told reporters at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
“Since October, when the Biden administration started cracking down on Iran-linked tankers, their crude deliveries to China, which buys nearly all of Iran’s oil, have shrunk by a quarter, to 1.3m barrels per day (b/d)” apple.news/AqYFM-RpgQHe...
apple.news
Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault — The Economist
Oil prices are already at a five-month high
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Important comments from DNI Haines here about how greater Russia/China/Iran/DPRK alignment is making nonproliferation much harder, and that the prior US cooperation with Russia and China on this front has broken down.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Worth recalling how little we know about Syria’s former nuclear weapons effort. Whoever rules Syria next stands to inherit whatever documents the Assad regime retained (and let’s hope that’s all it is) assuming they haven’t been/won’t be destroyed.
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Eric Brewer @ebrewer.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Some really interesting new details in the latest unclassified DNI report on Iran’s nuclear program. Will do a thread tomorrow. www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
dni.gov
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