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jon ben-menachem

@jbenmenachem.com
20K followers 986 following 14K posts

criminalization, abolition, labor, politics, journalism—social science theory & methods too. sociologist. jbenmenachem.com

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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 40m
my own dissertation is part of the reason why I am committed to that viewpoint! For whatever reason, the study of crime news shifted from ethnography (observing news work) to the analysis of text data. So we missed huge changes in crime news practice.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 42m
in our new paper, we argue for valuing confirmatory research alongside novel research. if we don't encourage scholars to study similar questions in new cases over long periods of time, we won't be able to accumulate knowledge bsky.app/profile/jben...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 43m
and yet, novelty remains a de facto requirement for publication in top journals :) quote from a recent review article: “sociologists seem to favor novelty over replication to such a deep extent that evaluating the depth of replication success is difficult.”
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 44m
we dig into the novelty/cumulative knowledge connection in this new paper, if it is of interest! bsky.app/profile/jben...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 53m
And yet political scientists had to fight tooth and nail for "Welfare" and "Criminal justice" to be considered political topics :)
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 54m
Still, info ecosystem is what it is, and I worry that even if the individuals making the worst posts aren't doing anything that matters, they are gradually changing the boundaries of acceptable discourse on this.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 56m
I similarly struggle to estimate how many actual real life people, who are meaningfully "on the left" (read: part of an organization that does any work at all), share the views in these posts. But I am still alarmed by the intensity and prevalence of the posts in question
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 1h
As always, police statistics measure police activity
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 19h
I searched it and got the same result
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 20h
It would be really interesting if some reporters could get corporate comms from X and Google to actually figure out who is responsible for this. I would guess it's Google.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 21h
It's actually wild because you can't tell who's a Nazi and who's a ... "leftist" without looking at the symbols in their handles.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 21h
The Twitter quotes are full of claims that this video is evidence of him "caving to Zionists"
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 21h
I've reproduced this. interestingly, if you search 'mamdani talmud twitter', it does not appear in this way.
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Chris Sommerfeldt @c-sommerfeldt.bsky.social · 23h
New: Since early 2026, Mamdani has required the NYPD to seek his office's approval before deploying its Strategic Response Group to do arrests. While it's a significant oversight for Mamdani to exert, the policy's existence is politically awkward for him. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
Inside Mamdani’s fraught effort to rein in the NYPD unit he pledged to end
The mayor has quietly required the NYPD to seek his office’s permission before the unit conducts arrests.
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october "pre-order The Struggle Is Always Worth It now!" krausch @octoberk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
this investigation on long COVID inside of prisons is out today at the Sick Times! I worked on this piece for months and am so grateful to the folks who shared their experiences with me. I'll write up a real thread a little later, but you can read it now: thesicktimes.org/2026/09/29/i...
thesicktimes.org
I interviewed five people with Long COVID in prison. They are invisible in the system. - The Sick Times
While there are no data sources on Long COVID in prison, experts suspect rates of the disease may be higher there than in the general population. They face high reinfection risks and poor access to me...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
Yeah we bracket this kind of concern, something for the experimentalists to deal with 😅
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CJ Ciaramella @cjciaramella.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Everyone knows that staff are the biggest source of prison contraband, but banning books is way easier than pissing off the correctional officer unions.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
ty for the reminder to reinstall
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
I'm new to this space, so I struggle to see how they could argue that this is an unfair reading without actually publishing a paper that says "We changed our mind about why we do this, there are different arguments to justify these tools."
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
That being said I do think they are funding user experience research (qual). It’s just very product focused rather than scientific (public interest, theory building stuff)
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shawn @mulchy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
the use of local surveillance tech to justify federal felony charges against martinez and ruiz isn’t especially remarkable on its own. yet many advocates say the case shows how easily private information can pass from one agency to another with seemingly little, if any, oversight or transparency.
chicagoreader.com
Feds tapped local surveillance networks in botched Chicago prosecutions - Chicago Reader
During their failed efforts to prosecute Marimar Martinez and Anthony Ruiz, federal authorities accessed a network of Chicagoland license plate readers and surveillance cameras.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
Recently heard that folks who work at/with Anthropic are having a lot of trouble finding internal support for labor economics research (that is: how does the tech affect employment and wages)
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
For some reason my PRs usually happen after bad sleep
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
hope you don't mind that I'm digging up an old thread, but we cite your work above in our paper, thought it might be of interest! bsky.app/profile/jben...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
This thread is a very light-touch version of our argument, so if you're interested in metascience reforms in observational settings, please do read the paper itself and let us know what you think! The link above is paywalled, this is the preprint (free to read): osf.io/preprints/so...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
So if restricting specifications doesn't work, what does? We propose a framework built around specification-expanding reforms, confirmatory research, & meta-analysis. The goal isn't to increase replication rates at any cost, but to expose researcher discretion so we can learn about repeatability.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
That's not the only issue. When a finding fails to replicate, it could be a false positive—or it could be an "ephemeral effect," a real relationship seen in one context but not another. In a heterogeneous social world, you often can't tell the difference. False positive control doesn't help w this.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
But observational research imposes stronger assumptions. False positive control requires a known null distribution. Without randomization, there's no broad class of a priori credible specifications. Restricting yourself to one model risks enshrining a misspecified model.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
We distinguish between "specification restricting" and "specification expanding" reforms. Pre-analysis plans restrict researcher discretion, limiting what analyses can be reported. The goal is to prevent p-hacking and control false positives. This makes sense with a random data generating process.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
How did I not realize that Cortex was touring
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
No idea how anyone would have the energy to do anything except lie down for 3 months after planning a wedding
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Maybe it's a suggestion now, still says they prefer 4k words
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
I mean shit, I can't even get peer reviewers to consult appendix figures that are cited in the main text, even when those figures directly answer their objections :)
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Lifetime reader count: 4
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Lmao but PNAS has such a restrictive word count limit that you cannot even attempt to represent a literature fairly
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Nicole Bedera @nbedera.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
For every story like the Cornell gang rape, there are thousands more that couldn’t make it into the light. I wrote about a few dozen of them at one university in On the Wrong Side. The university’s treatment of survivors is eerily similar to what Jane Doe at Cornell experienced.
bookshop.org
On the Wrong Side: How Universities Protect Perpetrators and Betray Survivors of Sexual Violence
"Bedera dispels deeply ingrained campus rape myths and puts the innate violence of the campus sexual assault reporting process into focus."--Jezebel"The book's grim conclusions are tempered with a hop...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Cats are machines with this stuff. This is related to the fact that 'outdoor cats' destroy ecosystems
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Except that, though she was quite a skilled huntress, she would toy with her prey, literally throwing it into the air over and over again, even if that meant... throwing mice into unsuspecting pots and pans.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
I miss having a cat.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
Well he did seem very interested in the kitchen tools!
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
What do you think is a fair % of rent to charge to a mouse?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
I think very common among those 50 and older
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
That user is going to be shocked when they hear that people are watching Netflix instead of cable.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
But anyway, yes. Despite being professionally invested in the music industry for several years, today I could not pick out an Ed Sheeran or Taylor Swift song if you played it for me. Surprise, there are millions on millions of artists out there, and I don’t listen to the radio.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
“Charts”—how long have we been in the streaming era now? 15 years?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
• Tsumugi • Butagumi • Tempura Abe • Tatsunoya Ramen • Fuglen • Cafe roji usagi • Arabica kyoto • Schoolbus coffee stop kyoto • Taka kyoto • Café & dining Mono (Kawaguchiko) • After all coffee
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 27/09/2026
the other thing that the quoted post above makes me think about, is the notion that bad people taking psychedelics can just make them into worse people through a kind of mystical confirmation bias
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 27/09/2026
anyway the burning man poly thing is unfortunately very salient bsky.app/profile/jben...
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