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Stephen Kirchner

@insteconomics.bsky.social
1.3K followers 2.9K following 637 posts

Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com

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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/an-illust...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
An illustrated guide to higher US Treasury yields
You will miss them when they are gone
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sectoral decomp of US September non-farm payrolls
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sectoral decomp of US September non-farm payrolls
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/an-illust...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
An illustrated guide to higher US Treasury yields
You will miss them when they are gone
001
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
For once, all the China PMIs land on the same day. Modest improvement on most of the headline measures, but only narrowly expansionary
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Joe Stieb @joestieb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Quincy types are big mad that biden averted war with iran.
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
For once, all the China PMIs land on the same day. Modest improvement on most of the headline measures, but only narrowly expansionary
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Today marks the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. See my retrospective on real commodity prices over the last 125 years stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Today marks the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. See my retrospective on real commodity prices over the last 125 years stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
021
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This week's macro digest stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/macro-dig...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Macro Digest
Week to 26 September
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
brianmoore2.bsky.social @brianmoore2.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We must never let him forget this
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This week's macro digest stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/macro-dig...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Macro Digest
Week to 26 September
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Revisiting the secular trend in real commodity prices on the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
001
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"That Census face." Ad for the 1933 Census in The Sun and Guardian, July 2, 1933. Found under the lino in a 1920s house I am renovating.
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Revisiting the secular trend in real commodity prices on the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
001
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Rising US Treasury yields are not about fiscal policy
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Rising US Treasury yields are not about fiscal policy
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Ilya Somin @ilyasomin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I'm now officially a Senior Fellow at Montreal Economic Institute! And I have Trump's tariffs to thank for it. The position arose from a paper MEI commissioned me to write about them. Once again, Trump comes through for his white working class base! www.iedm.org/ilya-somin/
iedm.org
Ilya Somin | Montreal Economic Institute
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England will announce its plans for quantitative tightening (QT) for the next 12 months on Thursday. But should it be doing any when gilt yields are so high? Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high? www.thetimes.com/article/49c8...
thetimes.com
Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high?
Unconventional monetary policy has created unconventional dilemmas. ​Plus: the ONS takes a maple leaf out of the Bank’s book
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Right on cue, the Nikkei reports the outcome of next week's BoJ policy board meeting. Much more of a heads up than we used to get from the non-voting MoF reps on the policy board, who would leak the decision to NHK! asia.nikkei.com/economy/ban...
asia.nikkei.com
Bank of Japan set to raise policy rate to 1.25% next week
Facing inflationary pressure, central bank accelerating pace of rate hikes
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Right on cue, the Nikkei reports the outcome of next week's BoJ policy board meeting. Much more of a heads up than we used to get from the non-voting MoF reps on the policy board, who would leak the decision to NHK! asia.nikkei.com/economy/ban...
asia.nikkei.com
Bank of Japan set to raise policy rate to 1.25% next week
Facing inflationary pressure, central bank accelerating pace of rate hikes
001
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/investmen...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague
An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Grise l’Indécis @wildobliquities.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
One line to list them all
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
The April 2025 Trump tariffs were a negative aggregate demand shock, where the transmission channel ran from trade policy uncertainty through investment intentions stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/investmen...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague
An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
The April 2025 Trump tariffs were a negative aggregate demand shock, where the transmission channel ran from trade policy uncertainty through investment intentions stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/investmen...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague
An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock
021
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What capex giveth, net exports taketh away
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What capex giveth, net exports taketh away
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Yes, Warsh believes in non-monetary theories of inflation. What could possibly go wrong? www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Warsh’s Old Forecasts Show How He Formed His Views on Inflation
As a Fed governor 15 years ago, Warsh was more worried about inflation than nearly all of his colleagues, and for years it didn’t materialize.
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Yes, Warsh believes in non-monetary theories of inflation. What could possibly go wrong? www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Warsh’s Old Forecasts Show How He Formed His Views on Inflation
As a Fed governor 15 years ago, Warsh was more worried about inflation than nearly all of his colleagues, and for years it didn’t materialize.
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Jon Cooper @joncooper-us.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Let’s go, Canucks! 💪🇨🇦
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Megan MacKay🇨🇦 @mmmegan.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
most americans are probably not tracking this story, but fyi the cultural temperature up here around this issue is still best described as “seething” and “intense”
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/scott-bess...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Scott Bessent and financial repression
Market intervention or bust
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
A Simple Plan
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/scott-bess...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Scott Bessent and financial repression
Market intervention or bust
001
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
This gives the lie to the idea that this is all about pressuring allies to do more for their defense. South Korea's armed forces are highly capable, designed to meet the threat posed by North Korea. It's about subservience to Trump.
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NewWaveAndPunk @punkandnewwave.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Released on this day in 1987: Substance #NewOrder youtu.be/xxDv_RTdLQo?si…
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
This week's newsletter: stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/japan-as-p...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Japan as poster child for market monetarism (in a good way)
Why the BoJ's QE program was a free lunch
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
X is a major national security vulnerability that UK government and politicians continue to prop up.
theguardian.com
Most X accounts posting about Belfast and Southampton unrest were based outside UK
Exclusive: Analysis shows 55% of accounts were overseas – and seven of 12 most-read posts came from US
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
This week's newsletter discusses Scott Bessent's effort to quarantine US capital markets from the US side of the joint intervention operation on JPY and how this reflects his insecurities about foreign demand for US Treasuries stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-sum-of...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The sum of all Bessent's fears
What joint foreign exchange market intervention tells us
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
This week's newsletter discusses Scott Bessent's effort to quarantine US capital markets from the US side of the joint intervention operation on JPY and how this reflects his insecurities about foreign demand for US Treasuries stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-sum-of...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The sum of all Bessent's fears
What joint foreign exchange market intervention tells us
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Who supports free trade? Everyone. The populist case for economic liberalism www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...
theargumentmag.com
Who supports free trade? Everyone.
The populist case for economic liberalism
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Who supports free trade? Everyone. The populist case for economic liberalism www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...
theargumentmag.com
Who supports free trade? Everyone.
The populist case for economic liberalism
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
New @nberpubs: "The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-through into Consumer Prices" 👀 www.nber.org/papers/w3556... "Tariffs raise the prices of goods made at home, not just the imports they tax" 😯
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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
I am extremely resistant to any version of ‘psychological effects of Covid are why politics is ruined’. Humans are just astonishingly psychologically resilient. People forget how common tragedy is, and how many friends people have.
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Another often overlooked element to the Trump admin’s reliance on non-binding agreements is the absence of norms. The underlying oughts and best practices are absent, leaving the deal to be measured by transactional, fleeting gains that ebb and flow without consequence.
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Note to self: buy 5-10 yards of JPY with the EUR found down the back of the couch www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Bessent's 'to do' list: buy $5-10 billion worth of Japanese yen, Reuters photo shows
Bessent exposed a "to-do" list during Trump's cabinet ​meeting indicating he was contemplating U.S. purchases of $5 billion to $10 billion ‌worth of Japanese yen, a Reuters photograph taken during the...
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Stephen Kirchner @insteconomics.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Kevin Warsh wants the title, but not the actual job. The job will find him soon enough stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/open-mouth...
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Open mouth operations: The case for more forward guidance, not less
Warsh wants the title, but not the actual job. The job will find him anyway
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Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 30/07/2026
my mole at the Tel once told me that Heath writes his headlines himself and delights in "triggering the woke", or words to that effect, so yeah, you're all being played like fiddles I'm afraid
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LordWoolamaloo @lordwoolamaloo.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Oh no, not Bill Oddie... Two of the three Goodies gone now. Won't mean much to younger folk, but to those of us of a certain, The Goodies were a wonderfully funny, warm light in our childhood. Sad ecky-thump. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #BillOddie
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 20/07/2026
Brent crude gained 2.5% to $90.30 a barrel on Monday during early trading in Asia, the first time oil has traded above $90 since June 11, as the US carried out a fresh wave of attacks on Iran and the number of American troops killed in the conflict rose. ft.trib.al/TPq3urI
Image description: An illuminated monument depicts the fist of the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei surrounded by the country's flags in Tehran’s Islamic Revolution Square, with pedestrians and vehicles passing by. Credit: Vahid Salemi/AP. Overlaid text reads: Oil returns above $90 as Iran hits tankers
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