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Mona Paulsen

@monapaulsen.bsky.social
4.8K followers 982 following 2.4K posts

Assistant Professor in International Economic Law, LSE Law School. Specialisation in international trade law and economic security, in addition to research and teaching interests in international investment law, international development, and IPE.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Now, instead of hiring and misusing research assistants, academics can use AI. Academics with little interest in research can now do it at minimal cost. So we just have more bad research and the same slow level of rigorous, careful work. Fast Fashion has hit Academics.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I think folks would do better studying what a LLM is and how it works before we begin ruminating on the quality and scope of outputs.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Academics cannot demand that politics be perfect before experimentation. I argue that we could be open to creativity and focus on taking small, pragmatic steps towards that goal. Creative thinking is not fanciful or whimsical. It is an important part of how we get things done.
ielp.worldtradelaw.net
Decision-Making in the Absence of Perfectly Spherical Cows
Last week, I had the distinct honour of participating in the plenary session that launched the WTO World Trade Report for 2026. You can check out the recording. In the week prior, WTO Chief Economist...
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Hi all, ICYMI, keen to hear from my European Council colleagues on the reasoning for and practice I draw from.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Last week, I had the distinct honour of participating in the plenary session that launched the WTO World Trade Report for 2026 at #WTOPublicForum. You can check out the recording: www.youtube.com/watch?v=VU7B...
youtube.com
Launch of the World Trade Report 2026
YouTube video by World Trade Organization
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
On what evidence of investigation does the POTUS base the decision to ban certain Canadian products under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act? This administration has a legal duty to comply with the statute that confers its trade powers. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/actions-pu...
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
What do we know about the future US management of semiconductor supply chains? The Business of Security. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/the-busine...
monapaulsen.substack.com
The business of security
What we know about the future of semiconductor supply management.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
We hope this public discussion will help us think creatively and carefully about how the MFN principle and its exceptions can continue to serve the entire membership in pursuing mutually advantageous trade. Let’s clear the air and talk about MFN at this year's #WTOPublicForum
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Thus far, what we have seen is the United States negotiating *directly* with businesses. Ad hoc. Opaque. And makes it impossible for a trading partner government to address the concerns giving rise to the tariffs (especially if under 301s). subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026...
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
#WTOPublicForum is around the corner. Together with George Riddell and Valerie Picard and the International Chamber of Commerce, we have convened a session on businesses' experience with economic security policies.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I'm not sure how this explains why Apple UK now shows Lake America.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Are we all too often ready to hurl criticisms when problems arises, but all too silent to praise when none do? Stability is hard fought and all too easily lost.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
A reminder that there are people in power who wrote a book that asserted that angering the “opponent” is a negotiating technique. Even if it’s not a zero sum matter and that partners are not opponents. But the best defence is to rise above, no matter the grotesque.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What are the legal obligations by which US companies adopt renaming? The EO instructs Federal Departments to take on the renaming. Will the Feds add clauses to all contracts? Costly regulation. Here’s Apple on the Gulf of Mexico.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The name means beautiful sparkling lake. Ontario connects every Canadian to Indigenous communities culture & history. Every Canadian, no matter where, honour our shared space and time on that land. It’s difficult to accept even performative acts like this. www.canada.ca/en/canadian-...
canada.ca
Ontario - Canada.ca
Learn about Ontario’s symbols, which include the eastern white pine, the loon and the trillium.
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Reposted by Mona Paulsen
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 26/08/2026
I wrote about the Moderna cancer vaccine news briefly for our weekly round up www.abundanceandgrowth.org/p/cancer-vac...
Personalized cancer vaccines are now real — Saloni Dattani
Researchers have spent decades trying to develop personalized cancer vaccines, and last week, the first one succeeded. It’s called intismeran autogene (mouthful), was developed by Moderna and Merck, and involves sequencing melanoma patients’ cancer mutations, creating a custom mRNA to target them, and delivering the vaccine to stop the cancer recurring. The news came as the drug passed its interim goal in a phase three trial, where it was given to people with high-risk resected melanoma.

It led to Moderna’s stock jumping 177%, which was apparently the largest one-day gain by any S&P 500 stock this century. I found the size of the surge surprising because you could have already been fairly confident that the drug would succeed since at least June: as I wrote in an earlier post, the company presented data from their phase 2b trial at an oncology conference almost three months ago, which showed a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death (p = 0.0075). But, according to financial analysts, the huge market reaction was probably down to a short squeeze and the belief that mRNA could be a more widely useful platform to develop other cancer vaccines too.

That makes sense, but it’s worth knowing that melanoma is a much easier disease to develop cancer vaccines for than others. It carries a very high number of mutations, so you have thousands of possible ‘neoantigens’ to select from and can choose those that look strong on many measures, but this isn’t the case for many cancers. Many cancers have far fewer mutations to select from, and it’s currently hard to predict whether their mutations will be displayed or measure which ones actually are displayed.But very few people thought this attempt would work either, until recently. According to a very interesting new STAT article detailing how this cancer vaccine came about, Moderna’s own executives didn’t expect it would work until 2023; it first entered clinical trials in 2017. In case you’re interested in more about personalized cancer vaccines, I’ll once again recommend this great podcast episode, How to design a cancer vaccine, hosted by Owl Posting and featuring Alex Rubinsteyn and Benjamin Vincent, two scientists whose work focuses on cancer immunology and vaccines.

Chart of Moderna share price
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I’ve been so focused I completely missed that Dolly Parton passed. What a treasure.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Ya’ll are missing out on the Canadian jokes. Enjoy!
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Section 338 of the 1930 Trade Act lets POTUS scale up actions. POTUS could completely exclude products from importation into the United States if a country maintains its discriminations. We can dispute how likely that would stand up to litigation, though.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
What happened to the US demand for reciprocity? Asserting unilateral actions to get more favourable benefits from a partner isn’t exactly how I’d define reciprocity.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
This would seem counter productive to Carney’s careful work to keep a unified Canadian position…a likely more durable trade negotiating position. But then again Ontario is a middle child so.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I get X now, you read, become increasingly angry at the absolute avalanche of nonsense and then want to scream out anger into the void to the point you lose all sense and decency, thereby perpetuating and scaling anger. Need to hug puppies.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
With the US obsessed with tariffs and reports coming out Canada only cared about tariff relief than there is a case for every US trade partner liberalising and using regulatory protectionism and fine tuned tariff descriptions for their efficient protectionism of choice. Only half joking.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I’ve seen people criticise Bluesky but after being on X for 24 hours it is amazing to see the rolling out of absolute hogwash and visceral hate promoted. It’s quite astonishing. I can’t make sense of how damaging it must be for someone to read every day.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I’m so happy this banger made it into the story: “Instead of addressing those, they put forward a bunch of minor things. A cornucopia of caprice.” x.com/politico/sta...
x.com
POLITICO (@politico) on X
Inside the 72 hours that cratered the US-Canada trade deal https://t.co/M9kmBndK8S
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
To be clear, I have yet to see any evidence that any US economic security deals/frameworks/agreements have any sound legal basis in US law, nor is there evidence that they have formed the basis for improved reciprocal relations. New tariff threats continue. Uncertainty remains.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I went for a long run thinking about Canada’s situation, and even if Harry Styles was in my ear, I thought through the broader state of play between the US and Canada monapaulsen.substack.com/p/canada-us-...
monapaulsen.substack.com
Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump
What happened in the final days of negotiation that spurred yesterday’s news cycle?
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
“Being open to the possibility that LLMs are conscious is the same as being open to the possibility that Microsoft Word is conscious, or, more precisely, that multiple distinct consciousnesses are dormant in every Word document containing a conversational transcript […].”
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Was Canada worried about creeping coercion? My assessment of what could have stalled a concluded deal.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
New from me: I tried to take a fresh look this morning at how and why Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/canada-us-...
monapaulsen.substack.com
Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump
What happened in the final days of negotiation that spurred yesterday’s news cycle?
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Economic security dilemma. Most treaties are incomplete contracts but the parties would build into that very stable and predictable paths for short term exceptions or permanent changes. But you need to bind core norms & agreed definitions otherwise you end up with paper thin promises.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Per Inside US Trade, I wonder if it went even beyond the requirements of an NME per USMCA 32.10 and one the US would deem inconsistent with its economic security interests? That’s a bit of a moving target … But did it go beyond what past deals demanded? I thought the poison pills were semi-solid.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Does anyone know more of the details of the demands? Similar to other ARTs of the past or even more exacting? Details from USTR indicate similar economic security commitments we’ve seen before but I wonder if perhaps we were seeing wider, deeper, *binding* controls on Canadian interests.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Sometimes agreements are about more than liberalisation. Sometimes agreements foster partnership and cooperation in broader international concerns. The GATT was a powerful pact for statecraft, explaining why the US made concessions to get the agreement signed.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Only the wit of Dan Levy for a response.
static.klipy.com
David Rose: Certain Lies I Tell Myself
ALT: David Rose: Certain Lies I Tell Myself
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Just a reminder that if the US had concerns of nullification or impairment of negotiated benefits then the government has had recourse to formal, structured consultations and dispute resolution within a very comprehensive trade agreement since 1994 —- no, since 1947.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
So…international law will comprise of hard law, soft law, and zombie law to account for all the non-binding promises governments make that do not build on anything but may continue to haunt your economy for an indefinite period of time.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Honestly, any US-Canada deal seems likely short lived. More a bandaid than carefully tailored for mutual growth. The uncertainty will continue. US negotiators have pressed on some Canadian red lines. I am unsure if politically there is any appetite to concede, considering tense dynamics & threats.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Reupping my short essay on why using sec 338 today is as problematic as the use of IEEPA last April. ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/07/why-...
ielp.worldtradelaw.net
Why Section 338 Does Not Work in a GATT/WTO World: Lessons from Trade Law History
On July 21, 2026, President Trump exercised his authority under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (hereinafter Section 338) to impose the maximum amount of additional tariffs (fifty per cent) on C...
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
You can’t have sovereign equality without due regard for the firms and peoples in other countries. Equality underscores cooperation and collective action. The US cannot expect support while negotiating in bad faith with regional trade partners. Frustrating.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
I don’t know if the future will be led by a middle power group. But I do know the time to placate bullying with deals should be well and truly over. Coordinated action Don’t make me tell you about Canada’s refusal to accept a bad reciprocity treaty with the US in 1911…
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
The escalation signals that the time for talk is over until the US returns to the table in good faith. Unsure whether cross border biz can afford the cool down time needed for that to take place. But I worry the Commerce is just bypassing Canada to negotiate directly with firms.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Just wondering if we should heed advice about education from educators rather than tool-producers?
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Reposted by Mona Paulsen
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 19/08/2026
Trump: "We've come to a deal with Canada ... Canada was charging us tremendous tariffs. We no longer have any tariffs ... it's all subject to the finalization of documents"
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Quick question... if we told the US that MFN made the US the Most Favoured Nation for all trade from every single WTO Member, wouldn't they jump at the chance to be every single Most Favoured? Doesn't that sound great? (They just have to be OK with making everyone else most favoured too)
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
This security justification really blows. Brass yourself for more tariffs.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Given this statutory basis for imposing tariffs on the three "disadvantages" of automotive supply chains dictated by US integration, reciprocal arrangements with the EU, and retaliatory restrictions on booze, I didn't expect this admin to have even a slim case for using sec. 338.
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
I guess I need to re-up this one…
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Umm.. what is this?
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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Last week, I had some thoughts on transhipment. I just need to add that "China adjacent" is not a measurable gauge for discrimination.
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