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Matt Peterson

@mattpeterson.bsky.social
5.7K followers 1.5K following 2.6K posts

Journalist covering politics, policy, and economics for CNBC. matt.peterson@cnbc.com. personal site: mattpeterson.me

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 7h
The DOJ says it is not reopening the Powell investigation. The White House is not calling for Michael Barr to be fired over the SVB allegations. However, as of Thursday the White House told me that *is still considering* firing Lisa Cook. www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/d...
cnbc.com
DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 9h
Very good Crisis Group briefing makes the point that the Hormuz shuttle runs that have more allowed oil out of the strait may prompt Iranian attacks to reassert control. "Good news for energy markets today – more tankers through Hormuz – may herald new risks of Iranian escalation tomorrow"
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Trump says there are Obama appointees at the Fed. There are not.
Do you regret nominating Warsh?

Well, he's controlled to a certain extent by the board. You know, you have Obama and Biden picks on there. You’re too late on that. Too late. We have Lisa on there. We have a lot of—

He still has your confidence? 

We have a lot of people on there that would love for our country to do badly. It's become very political. I don't blame you, Kevin. I think it's too bad. Not fair. Look, our nation is going through a growth explosion like no nation's ever seen. We're blowing through the interest rates. But if we didn't have to, it would be great.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Pirro’s office tells me it is reviewing the Fed IG’s report. This has always been the crucial point about it. Pirro wouldn’t commit to only reopening the investigation if the IG found criminality. She can use her own standard.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"US households are suffering from the price of things, not the price of credit," @sheilabair.bsky.social writes. "Instead of criticising the Fed, Republicans should celebrate the fact that it has made the living costs of Main Street America its top priority."
ft.com
For once, the Fed has put Main Street before Wall Street
Rather than criticising the central bank’s rate increase, Republicans should be praising Warsh for putting American families first
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Breaking: David Zervos will join Scott Bessent's Treasury Department as a counselor. Zervos was a CNBC contributor. He adds intellectual firepower to a department that has seen many recent personnel departures.
cnbc.com
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hires Wall Street economist David Zervos
Zervos is joining the Treasury Department as counselor to Bessent, adding a prominent markets voice to the administration's economic policy team.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Some takeaways from my new piece with @steveliesman.bsky.social. Warsh's new framework for setting interest rates is starting to become clear. It puts a lot of weight on financial conditions. As the market has sussed out in the past few days, that points toward more hikes while inflation stays hot
cnbc.com
Warsh's regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is driving rapid change in some areas, while his emerging policy framework suggests further rate hikes remain possible.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I clicked so fast
A screenshot of the Wall Street Journal homepage showing a man's face (Evan Gershkovich) with the tag "exclusive" above the headline: Did Putin Really Think I Was a Spy?
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The policy tension behind the rise in bond yields: Kevin Warsh wants to hear what markets are saying. Scott Bessent wants to use his tools to change the message when he believes it’s wrong.
cnbc.com
Analysis: Higher Treasury yields deliver a reality check on a hot, inflation-prone economy
Elevated Treasury yields will complicate both Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"Russia has not commented on Trump’s efforts to secure an energy ceasefire. Vladimir Putin... is unlikely to agree before the end of this coming winter, when his forces are planning a devastating aerial bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to people briefed on his thinking."
ft.com
Donald Trump presses Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries
US president tells Ukrainian leader in phone call it is all about ‘diesel, diesel, diesel’, according to officials
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"The states that held out longer did succeed over the past week in securing independent editorial boards for CBS and CNN as part of the deal, the person said."
bloomberg.com
Paramount to Settle Lawsuits, Paving Way for Warner Bros. Merger
Paramount Skydance Corp. has reached a settlement with California and other states suing to block its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., according to a person familiar with the matte...
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Starling, the firm retained by Fed regulatory chief Michelle Bowman, has released its initial report into the SVB failure. It is 300+ pages, including supporting documents, so it will take time to review. One bit of news off the bat: Michael Barr did not sit for an interview with Starling.
A screenshot with the following text: "Starling has benefitted by interviews with those entrusted with the duties of the VCS: former
Governor Daniel K. Tarullo, former VCS Randal K. Quarles, and current VCS Michelle W. Bowman. Governor Barr, who served as VCS during the nine months immediately prior to SVB’s failure, declined to meet for an interview discussion until after having opportunity to respond to written questions. I appreciate Governor Barr’s responses to an initial set of questions, his willingness to respond to a more detailed second set of questions recently submitted, and I look forward to an interview discussion with him that is to be scheduled thereafter."
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC declines to join some of his colleagues' attacks on the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh. "We are sure he will do the right thing to balance the growth mandate with the inflation mandate," Bessent said. (The Fed has a jobs mandate, not growth.)
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Useful history in the WSJ: State-run investments in refineries in Russia and the Middle East made it less profitable to add capacity in the US. Now those state-run facilities are under attack, and the private sector can't meet demand on its own. Diesel is at $6.50. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
The major refinery investments have had a knock-on effect: They put pressure on refining margins across the U.S. and Europe. Western oil companies haven’t built new refineries in nearly 30 years, while more than a dozen facilities across the U.S. and Europe have shut down since 2015. 

When national oil companies built the refineries, return on investment was a secondary concern, said Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. Governments paying for them were more interested in providing employment and assuring fuel security.

“We’ve seen the oil majors effectively reduce their exposure to that sector because the returns on actual capital employed have been poor,” Gelder said. “The classic phrase we used was: ‘How do you make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and build a refinery.’”
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
How (not) to talk about economics in China. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/b...
A screenshot of a New York Times article with the following text. The third sentence is highlighted. 

Fixed-asset investment, including infrastructure, real estate and equipment, fell 4.1 percent in the first five months of the year. Mr. Li, the former central bank adviser, said a similar contraction happened only twice in the history of the People’s Republic: in 1961, at the height of the Great Famine, and in 1967, at the height of the Cultural Revolution. (It also fell in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square massacre, but it probably wouldn’t be wise to mention that at a meeting in Beijing.)
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Diesel’s up 8.5 cents today. 4 cents yesterday. Up 72.5% in a year, and the rate of price increases is accelerating. Brutal.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Trump said just now that he thinks Warsh has a "hostile board." He could act at any time to fire Lisa Cook. The Supreme Court said she was entitled to an explanation of the evidence and a chance to respond. Those boxes have been checked. Trump could order the firing at any time.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Fed press conferences from 2011 to 2025 were 53 minutes on average, according to Fed researchers. Today's press conference was just 28 minutes, or 47% shorter than the historical average. There were just 16 rounds of questions with no follow-ups.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Like interest rate hikes, Trump tweets are rarely one and done. Let's see where this goes.
Screenshot of a Donald J. Trump Truth Social post, timestamped Sept. 16, 2026, 4:38 pm. It has the following text: "Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, 1.5 Trillion Dollars a year. The word “Deficit” is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are “carrying” almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Trump has thoughts about interest rates. Notably he doesn't seem to attack Warsh after the rate hike, at least for now.
Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, 1.5 Trillion Dollars a year. The word “Deficit” is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are “carrying” almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Trump said cut. Warsh hiked anyway. The message to Trump is crystal clear: Hands off the Fed.
cnbc.com
Analysis: Warsh rate hike reinforces Fed independence after Trump pressure
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by a quarter point despite repeated calls from President Donald Trump for lower rates.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The Trump administration has followed the Supreme Court's procedures for firing Lisa Cook and could act at any time. It reserves the right to reopen a criminal investigation into Powell. If Warsh raises rates today, it will be despite the legal equivalent of a loaded gun pointed at the Fed.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Scott Bessent is testifying before the House today as the 10 year hits 5% and oil is above $100. I expect Dems to pour every ounce of voter anxiety about the economy into their questions. Bessent doesn’t shy from a fight. He will give as good as he gets. I’ll be in the room. 🍿
cnbc.com
What to watch as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before Congress
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may face questions on rising energy prices, Federal Reserve policy, government debt and the Trump team's economic agenda.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
"The really scary thing about the doomsday talk wasn’t the threat of Anthropic’s AI, much of which we’ve heard before. Rather it was the suggestion that the unique safeguards Amodei built to resist market pressures at Anthropic are failing."
wsj.com
Anthropic’s Moral Conflict Is Playing Out in Real Time
Dario Amodei created the artificial intelligence lab to be protected from the very threat it is facing.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Chef's kiss ad placement. Claude creator: We need to slow down frontier AI. Claude advertiser: It can check its own work!
Screenshot of a news article showing a quotation attributed to Mr. Amodei above a large advertisement. The article text reads: “Over the last few months, I have become convinced that fully addressing the risks requires even more prudence — not just investing in risk prevention, but pacing the rate of capabilities advancement so that risk prevention has time to keep up,” Mr. Amodei wrote. “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of A.I. models. Progress will still seem fast, and we must make wise use of the time we gain.”

Below a horizontal divider is an advertisement for Rakuten and Claude. It features Yusuke Kaji, identified as Rakuten’s GM of AI for Business, standing against an orange-and-cream background. A quote beside him reads: “Claude could run on its own far longer than its predecessors, checking its own work and completing nuanced tasks overnight.” The Claude name and orange starburst logo appear prominently on the right.
Alt-text by AI (irony alert)
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 11/09/2026
IMO the bond market decided yesterday after PPI that the FOMC would either hike or the curve would steepen like hell if they didn't. The CPI data today took that latter option off the table (in terms of what's priced) so if we don't get a hike Wednesday it's going to be an absolute mess.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Kevin Warsh doesn't have to hike interest rates. But after Jackson Hole and today's CPI reading, he's going to face some very difficult questions if he doesn't.
cnbc.com
Analysis: Hot CPI puts Kevin Warsh’s Fed credibility on the line before rate decision
August CPI data leave Kevin Warsh to choose between acting on his inflation warnings or risking new doubts about his control of the central bank.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Good morning. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.95%, or about 3 basis points below its 2023 high. If it breaks that level, the 10-year will be at the highest level since 2007, when the global financial crisis was still unfolding.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Scott Bessent on Steve Bannon’s show says Treasury received half the offers it expected for its buyback operation.
"This whole nonsense today that our operation didn't work. Well our operation didn't work because we only had $10 billion of offers for our buyback program. Normally we get $20 billion, and we only buy the bonds back cheap. So when it said I didn't buy back as many as I said was going to buy, it's because we buy em cheap. And again, people seem to wait to keep their long term bonds because we only had half
as many offers."
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
"Druckenmiller said he is no longer allowed to speak to Warsh, but described him as one of his 'closest friends' and called him a 'great Fed chair.'" That will come as a surprise to many on Wall Street who believe that Druck is in constant communication with Warsh.
ft.com
Stanley Druckenmiller says US borrowing costs still ‘a little low’ despite surge in yields
Close ally of Kevin Warsh says Federal Reserve officials who argue rates are restrictive are ‘just ridiculous’
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This prediction from a story I wrote in July 2024 is holding up well: “the bond market will worry more about Republicans than Democrats” www.barrons.com/articles/tru...
But that doesn't mean these plans can be written off. They represent a long-term reorientation of the relationship between the two major political parties and the financial markets, says Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research for State Street Global Advisors. "Neither party is for fiscal rectitude, but suddenly I think the bond market will worry more about Republicans than Democrats, which is a big change from where we were in the 198os and 'gos," he says.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Bessent's event tonight in Dallas will be the first time a sitting Treasury secretary has spoken at a national political convention in 50 years. True, this is the first midterms convention, but there's a reason Treasury secretaries avoid this kind of stuff. He's actively trying to bend the markets.
cnbc.com
Bessent’s political turn in GOP speech tests his bond-market credibility
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's planned Republican convention speech in Dallas is raising questions about how politics could affect market confidence in him.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
"In the past week, the president, vice president, Treasury secretary and one of the president’s senior economic counselors have all urged the Fed not to raise rates and, in some cases, to cut them" @steveliesman.bsky.social
cnbc.com
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Ten days ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, the Trump administration looks to be in a full-court press to halt a rate hike in its tracks.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Allianz CIO Ludovic Subran tells me the European asset manager is looking away from the U.S. bond market after Trump-era policies made it uneconomical for them. That judgment isn’t political — it’s “pure economics,” Subran said. It's a competitive market. U.S. policy isn't helping. Latest here.
cnbc.com
Analysis: Lower Treasury yields could require a weaker economy. Trump won't fix them
Long-term Treasury yields are being held up by Trump-era policy risk, heavy government borrowing and AI-driven corporate debt.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Waller is even more explicit than Williams in saying he's likely to want to hold rates in September, after Kevin Warsh strongly indicated he would want to raise them. Now we're getting a clear test of Warsh's FOMC leadership. Does he attempt to advance his own intellectual case, or adopt theirs?
cnbc.com
Fed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting
In remarks that seem to contrast with statements last week from Chairman Kevin Warsh, Waller expressed confidence in the current inflation trends.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
NY Fed's John Williams tells CNBC he wants to "wait and see" before raising rates. "There's no clear signs right now" about whether current rates will bring inflation down.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Don't look now but the socialists are cutting wasteful government spending nysfocus.com/2026/09/02/m...
Mayor Zohran Mamdani is canceling a contract with T-Mobile to hook up New York City public school students’ laptops with cell service. The contract would have cost well over $100 million over the next three years, making the move one of the most significant single cost-cutting measures of Mamdani’s young mayoralty.

Eight months into his tenure, Mamdani is now terminating the T-Mobile part of the contract, a move first reported by Chalkbeat. Department of Education spokesperson Nicole Brownstein said that the administration views the contract as unnecessary because it replicates an existing program that allows schools to pay $10 a month per child to provide LTE service through Verizon to any student who needs it.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The 10-year Treasury is at 4.81% this morning. A lot of people in the markets thought Bessent would try to defend 4.75%. Over to you, Mr. Secretary.
cnbc.com
10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023 as global bond sell-off continues
Treasury yields continued to climb on Wednesday as inflation fears stoked a global rise in borrowing costs.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Watch Peter Navarro as a canary in the coal mine for when Trump turns on Kevin Warsh. Navarro's latest column attacks Warsh for considering rate hikes. www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/au...
washingtontimes.com
Warsh risks repeating Powell’s Fed mistakes
Kevin Warsh made a pilgrimage to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday to mark his 100th day as Federal Reserve chairman.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh showed he had heard the critics dumping on his credibility. He came as close as he is ever likely to do to indicating he is on the precipice of raising interest rates if inflation doesn’t improve, based on his own idiosyncratic reading of price data.
cnbc.com
Analysis: Kevin Warsh sharpens inflation warning at Jackson Hole, signaling possible rate hike
After confusing markets at his July press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to give a clearer view of the case for higher interest rates.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
48 hours after Bessent intervened in the bond market, nominal and real Treasury yields are rising. Borrowing is getting more expensive while investors are expecting higher inflation. Bessent picked a fight with the bond market, and it's fighting right back.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
"With Trump and his brother-in-arms, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, running short of options to end the war they started without much of a plan, the route of economic asphyxiation is probably the least bad plan. Needless to say, 'least bad' is far from 'good.'"
bloomberg.com
Choking Iran's Economy Is the Least Bad Way to End the War
Over the years, I’ve witnessed at first-hand countries going literally broke under US economic pressure: Iraq, Venezuela and Cuba. The scenes I saw in Baghdad, Caracas and Havana were all very similar...
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
WSJ edit board member sees Warsh and Bessent as at odds over the bond market. www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Seen in this light, Mr. Bessent’s bond intervention isn’t a challenge to Mr. Warsh’s hands-off approach to the government debt market, but rather a sign that Mr. Warsh’s approach is starting to work. Mr. Bessent’s move is the first—clumsy and likely ineffective—attempt by a politician to grapple with the implications of interest rates that are allowed to rise in line with economic growth. There will have to be more adjustments. Brace yourselves.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Bessent’s bond intervention comes at a delicate time for Kevin Warsh. The Fed’s assistance would be needed to make a lasting dent in the Treasury market. The Fed hasn’t signed on, but Warsh has explicitly said he would defer to Bessent on some balance sheet issues. New piece on the bond turmoil
cnbc.com
Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank's turf
Bessent’s effort to tamp down long-term Treasury yields could force Warsh to clarify how far the Fed should go in coordinating on bonds and the balance sheet.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Greg Ip on Bessent's treasury buybacks: "The move, while reducing yields in the short run, might yet raise them in the long run by eroding the U.S.’s reputation for stability and predictability."
wsj.com
The Treasury Market’s Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading
Two new studies find signs investors aren’t as willing to accept low yields because of Treasurys’ safety.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Today's treasury buyback move wasn't huge in itself, but it's part of a clear pattern of Bessent intervening to tamp down yields. That is creating a fair amount of market risk for the Treasury, and putting even more pressure on the Fed. With @steveliesman.bsky.social www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/b...
While the buybacks aren’t large compared to the total amount of debt outstanding, many in the markets interpreted the Treasury’s new repurchase plan as a potent symbol of a long-standing effort by Bessent to bring down the yield on the 10-year Treasury and other maturities.

But doing so risks accelerating inflation while making the cost of financing the $32.2 trillion in debt held by the public more sensitive to potential interest-rate increases, bond traders and economists said. And it puts pressure on the independent Fed to back administration policies.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Axios appears to have quietly edited this story by Mike Allen about the G20. It originally said Kevin Warsh will speak at the event. Now it says he will "co-host." I don't see any sign of a correction.
axios.com
Sneak peek: Trump administration to talk growth with finance ministers, CEOs in Asheville, N.C.
Bessent will emphasize the resilience of the American spirit — and push his global counterparts to focus on growth and prosperity.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fed minutes make clear that Kevin Warsh won't get a balance-sheet reduction before the task force reports back late this year/early next.
Most participants commented on balance sheet policy. They noted that the findings of the task force on balance sheet policy would be a useful input into Committee deliberations and suggested that future FOMC meetings would provide an opportunity for a comprehensive discussion on the topic. Various participants pointed to particular issues that could be examined. Issues highlighted included considerations related to market functioning and financial stability, the influence of balance sheet policy on monetary and financial conditions, and the appropriate maturity composition of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities. Several participants referred to earlier Committee discussions of these issues, and many participants reaffirmed that the primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy should be through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate.
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Just spitballing here: Imagine situation where non-chair Fed officials push for rate hikes to lower inflation as Treasury starts leaning on Fed to buy long-term debt, even after all the QE bashing, to contain yield rise. How do you think Warsh would navigate this? Would Bessent try such a gambit?
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
TBAC, the nonpartisan market committee that advises Treasury, has warned at least twice that using buybacks to control the yield curve is risky. Treasury is couching these buybacks as liquidity management, but the market won't see it that way.
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