Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 03/04/2026substack.com/@chinathreat...substack.comCHINA: Threat or Menace? (@chinathreatormenace)Liberation Day has come and gone, but the Tariff Man never sleeps… 000
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 26/02/2026What's driving great power competition in the Arctic today? And how do China and Russia perceive President Trump's approach? @ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social discuss: www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRs5...youtube.comHow China & Russia View Trump’s Greenland PolicyYouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 022
Reposted by Isaac KardonJason Davidson @profjwdavidson.bsky.social · 07/01/2026100% I'd also recommend this article from 2025 by @ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social Annexing Greenland would destroy NATO and NATO allies--Norway, the UK, and Iceland--are necessary for securing the Arctic. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...foreignpolicy.comTrump’s Greenland Obsession Will Not Secure AmericaCountering Russia and China in the Arctic requires leveraging alliances, not fracturing them. 052
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/11/2025For more details from Sheena and Cameron, along with @ibkardon.bsky.social, see their latest Carnegie report on China’s foreign police training: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgChina’s Foreign Police Training: A Global FootprintNew data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security. 041
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 13/11/2025For more from Sheena, @ibkardon.bsky.social, and Cameron Waltz on how China is training police forces across the world, see their latest Carnegie paper: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgChina’s Foreign Police Training: A Global FootprintNew data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security. 041
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/11/2025open.substack.com/pub/isaackar...open.substack.comNobody warned me there would be poemsBut is prose even OK with the "Pivot to Venezuela" underway?! 010
Reposted by Isaac KardonNational Committee on U.S.-China Relations @ncuscr.bsky.social · 08/09/2025🌏 Why are some countries deepening security ties with both the U.S. and China? #PIPFellows @sheenagreitens.bsky.social, @ibkardon.bsky.social, & Philip Saunders discuss “security hybridization” and what it means for the U.S.-China relationship. Watch: bit.ly/41LjAG5bit.lySecurity Without Exclusivity – Why Countries Choose to Cooperate Simultaneously with Both the U.S. and ChinaSheena Greitens and Isaac Kardon join Philip Saunders for a discussion on how third countries are simultaneously deepening security cooperation with China and the U.S. instead of choosing between them... 032
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 13/08/2025“Analysts and policymakers are used to thinking about China’s military as a global security actor,” says @sheenagreitens.bsky.social. But its internal security apparatus also plays a significant role. Sheena, @ibkardon.bsky.social, and Cameron Waltz explain: youtu.be/X0Vtai8xccE?...youtu.beInside China’s Global Security PlaybookYouTube video by Carnegie Explains 143
Reposted by Isaac KardonSheena Chestnut Greitens @sheenagreitens.bsky.social · 06/08/2025Delighted to share a new report that's been over a year in the making, with @carnegieendowment.org 's @ibkardon.bsky.social & Cameron Waltz, on China's internal security outreach under GSI: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgA New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security InitiativeGlobal outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. 12214
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 06/08/2025China’s internal security agencies are using global engagement to legitimize its national security vision via non-military security cooperation. @ibkardon.bsky.social, @sheenagreitens.bsky.social, & Cameron Walz analyze China’s foreign security policy: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgA New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security InitiativeGlobal outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. 052
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 06/08/2025The Arctic is emerging as a new arena of geopolitical competition, but few policymakers understand its strategic importance to Russia and China. @alexgabuev.bsky.social joins @ibkardon.bsky.social on the season finale of #TWU. 🎙️Listen now: the-world-unpacked.simplecast.com/episodes/tru...the-world-unpacked.simplecast.comTrump’s Greenland Fixation and the China-Russia Strategic Opportunity in the Arctic | The World UnpackedIn this episode of The World Unpacked, Isaac Kardon speaks with Alexander (Sasha) Gabuev about growing Russia–China cooperation in the Arctic. They explore the region’s rising strategic importance, it... 033
Reposted by Isaac KardonJennifer Lind @proflind.bsky.social · 04/08/2025At Blue Blaze, our Scouted series discusses exciting new work in IR and foreign policy. Tune in Wednesday for our first Scouted podcast—in which I host @sheenagreitens.bsky.social & @ibkardon.bsky.social discussing their work on China as an internal security provider 021
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 17/07/2025How should we understand China’s system of party-state capitalism, and what sets it apart from other countries with strong state intervention in the economy? Meg Rithmire discusses on #TheWorldUnpacked with @ibkardon.bsky.social: youtube.com/shorts/Qly5_...youtube.comWhat Makes China's Party-State Capitalism Different?YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 141
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 15/07/2025Subsea cables carry 95% of the world’s data but are largely invisible in global policy debates. @ibkardon.bsky.social, Jane Munga, and @sophiabesch.bsky.social discuss the geopolitics, economics, and risks surrounding undersea data infrastructure on #TheWorldUnpacked: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJIq...youtube.comThe New Geopolitics of Subsea CablesYouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 154
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 15/07/2025What are subsea data cables, and why are they important to European security? @sophiabesch.bsky.social explains on the latest #TheWorldUnpacked, with Jane Munga and @ibkardon.bsky.social: youtube.com/shorts/twSI9...youtube.comSubsea Cables and European SecurityYouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 132
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 16/07/2025Why are subsea data cables so critical for Africa's socio-economic future? Jane Munga discusses on the latest #TheWorldUnpacked, with @ibkardon.bsky.social and @sophiabesch.bsky.social: youtube.com/shorts/oArgQ...youtube.comSubsea Cables and Africa's FutureYouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 253
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 17/07/2025How does capitalism function in China, a party-state that tries to maintain “rule by market” without ceding too much control to private capital? @ibkardon.bsky.social discusses with Meg Rithmire on #TheWorldUnpacked: youtu.be/BMb3S8Jin_A?... 111
Reposted by Isaac KardonAnkit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 11/06/2025Now available in video: my chat with @ibkardon.bsky.social about my new book. (And definitely the first podcast I’ve done on nukes that ends in a hug!) www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjOp...youtube.comWhy We All Need to Care About Nukes AgainYouTube video by Carnegie Endowment 07624
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 10/06/2025“The Life of the Party: Past and Present Constraints on the Future of the Chinese Communist Party" Yvonne Chiu, @ibkardon.bsky.social, & Jason M. Kelly’s co-edited publication contains essays from experts on persistent patterns and new developments in Chinese politics since the CCP’s founding. 142
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 09/06/2025Out now: @ibkardon.bsky.social sits down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to explore today’s new nuclear age—and what it will take to manage the growing risks of confrontation and escalation. Listen to #TheWorldUnpacked here: the-world-unpacked.simplecast.com/episodes/why...the-world-unpacked.simplecast.comWhy We All Need to Care About Nukes Again | The World UnpackedIsaac Kardon sits down with Ankit Panda to explore today’s new nuclear age—and what it will take to manage the growing risks of confrontation and escalation. 042
Reposted by Isaac KardonSheena Chestnut Greitens @sheenagreitens.bsky.social · 04/06/2025On this 6/4, sharing a new piece out at Irregular Warfare Initiative with @ibkardon.bsky.social on "Does China's Growing Security Outreach Matter?" (Spoiler: Yes.) Grateful to @atwellkyle.bsky.social & the entire IWI team for the chance to share our analysis: irregularwarfare.org/articles/doe...irregularwarfare.orgDoes China’s Growing Security Outreach Matter? Tracing Implications for Irregular Warfare and U.S. Security CooperationMore countries are turning to both the U.S. and China for different types of security support. Learn what “security hybridization” means and why it matters. 032
Reposted by Isaac KardonSheena Chestnut Greitens @sheenagreitens.bsky.social · 31/05/2025SecDef Hegseth's Shangri-La Dialogue speech repeated conventional wisdom that's already eroded. No longer a functional division of getting security from US, prosperity from China. China's emerged as a global security provider, as @ibkardon.bsky.social and I show in @intsecurity.bsky.social: 2104
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 27/05/2025President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic. @ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...foreignpolicy.comTrump’s Greenland Obsession Will Not Secure AmericaCountering Russia and China in the Arctic requires leveraging alliances, not fracturing them. 095
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 21/03/2025Appreciate the extensive quotations and use of my data in this excellent article, which puts the Panama Canal ports in their proper global context. context. We are still waiting for the other shoe to drop in this maritime mega-deal…watch this space. 041
Reposted by Isaac KardonCarnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 31/03/2025President Trump’s efforts to take the Panama Canal may now be in limbo thanks to a Chinese antitrust investigation. Carnegie’s @ibkardon.bsky.social explained for @nytimes.com . Read the full article here: buff.ly/FkEMSR2 054
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 21/03/2025Appreciate the extensive quotations and use of my data in this excellent article, which puts the Panama Canal ports in their proper global context. context. We are still waiting for the other shoe to drop in this maritime mega-deal…watch this space. 041
Reposted by Isaac KardonAustin Ramzy @austinramzy.bsky.social · 14/03/2025CK Hutchison is accused of "disregarding national interests and national justice and betraying and selling out all Chinese people" over its sale of Panama Canal ports to US. firm BlackRock in a state media commentary posted by China's Hong Kong and Macao office. www.hmo.gov.cn/sgazx/gayw/2...hmo.gov.cn港澳办 0145
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 11/03/2025Just published this short piece on the big Panama Canal port deal and implications for US-China (maritime) competition, and the middle powers squeezed in between. BLUF: BlackRock acquired a huge port-folio of port terminals, planting US flag in a long-neglected sector. rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...rsis.edu.sgIP25026 | American Consortium’s Purchase of Hong Kong-Owned Port Terminals Has Implications Far Beyond PanamaSYNOPSIS The announcement that the American consortium BlackRock will be buying Hong Kong CK Hutchison’s port operations business has been heralded as a success in support of President Donald Trump’s ... 130
Reposted by Isaac KardonPhil Klay @philklay.bsky.social · 09/03/2025And this more recent piece direct.mit.edu/isec/article...direct.mit.eduSecurity without Exclusivity: Hybrid Alignment under U.S.-China CompetitionAbstract. This article explores an emerging dynamic in the international system: Countries across the world are engaged in simultaneous security cooperation with both China and the United States. Chin... 021
Reposted by Isaac KardonPhil Klay @philklay.bsky.social · 09/03/2025Fascinating piece from @ibkardon.bsky.social and @sheenagreitens.bsky.social on US-Chinese rivalry www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... 2183
Reposted by Isaac KardonSheena Chestnut Greitens @sheenagreitens.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Thanks to @carnegieendowment.org #CarnegieAsia for posting this copy of my testimony to the USCC last week on China's security cooperation with Russia, NK, & Iran: carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...carnegieendowment.orgChina, Regime Security, and Authoritarian CollaborationChina’s growing security relationships with Russia, Iran, and North Korea take place in a broader context: China’s emergence as a global security provider, one that has a different emphasis than the U... 063
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Of course, the US has no recognizable claims on the Canal, nor has it been 'reclaimed' - but this is a seismic shift in the global commercial maritime landscape. Hutchison is selling off its Panama holdings - and also another 41 terminals in 22 countries. Big deal!! www.reuters.com/markets/asia...reuters.comCK Hutchison shares jump 22% after Panama Canal stake sale to BlackRockCK Hutchison stock gained more than 22% on Wednesday after the Hong Kong conglomerate sold a majority stake in a $22.8 billion ports unit, including assets along the Panama Canal, to a group led by U.S. buyout firm BlackRock . 000
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 25/02/2025Excited to share my latest piece with @sheenagreitens.bsky.social, just out with International Security: Quarterly Journal (doi.org/10.1162/isec...). Builds on our prior work in @foreignaffairs.com (www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...) Paywalled for now, but here's the gist: (1/6)foreignaffairs.comPlaying Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese RivalryMany countries get external security from Washington—and internal security from Beijing. 185
Reposted by Isaac KardonKori Schake @kschake.bsky.social · 18/01/2024Delighted to see Dr. Chestnut Greitens’ much anticipated book arrive! 072
Reposted by Isaac KardonThorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 25/02/2025Caught in the act. Taiwan’s coastguard said it caught a Chinese-owned freighter cutting a subsea communications cable off its western coast early on Tuesday. www.ft.com/content/eb4a...ft.comTaiwan catches Chinese-owned ship in act of cutting subsea cableConfrontation comes after Taipei launched crackdown on Beijing’s ‘shadow fleet’ 35930
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 25/02/2025Excited to share my latest piece with @sheenagreitens.bsky.social, just out with International Security: Quarterly Journal (doi.org/10.1162/isec...). Builds on our prior work in @foreignaffairs.com (www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...) Paywalled for now, but here's the gist: (1/6)foreignaffairs.comPlaying Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese RivalryMany countries get external security from Washington—and internal security from Beijing. 185
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 25/02/2025So Adani (which had its DFC funding pulled due to US corruption against its owner) still got a better deal at Colombo than China Merchants? Go figure… www.maritimegateway.com/slpas-collab... 000
Reposted by Isaac KardonJacqueline L. Hazelton @drjlhazelton.bsky.social · 23/02/2025@intsecurity.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social 033
Reposted by Isaac KardonForeign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 15/03/2024A growing number of countries are receiving security assistance from both Beijing and Washington, write Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac Kardon. How should U.S. policymakers navigate these patterns of overlapping cooperation?foreignaffairs.comPlaying Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese RivalryMany countries get external security from Washington—and internal security from Beijing. 033
Reposted by Isaac KardonSheena Chestnut Greitens @sheenagreitens.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Delighted to have a new article out with @ibkardon.bsky.social in International Security. China is emerging as a global security provider, including to countries that get security assistance from the US. 1/3 12110
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Grateful for the chance to testify in the House this week about "China's strategic port investments in the Western Hemisphere"...including extensive analysis of the Panama Canal, ZPMC cranes, and the unwisdom of PLA power projection in this hemisphere. homeland.house.gov/hearing/exam...homeland.house.govExamining the PRC’s Strategic Port Investments in the Western Hemisphere and the Implications for Homeland Security, Part I – Committee on Homeland Security 142
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Sharing my latest @CarnegieEndow piece, with @milomcbride evaluating China's critical mineral export controls as a potent upstream countermeasure against US chip/AI controls. BLUF: China's mineral weapon can hurt global tech industry, but it can't last long. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgRocks vs. ChipsHow the U.S.-China competition is playing out for high-tech advantage 011
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Sharing my latest @CarnegieEndow piece, with @milomcbride evaluating China's critical mineral export controls as a potent upstream countermeasure against US chip/AI controls. BLUF: China's mineral weapon can hurt global tech industry, but it can't last long. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...carnegieendowment.orgRocks vs. ChipsHow the U.S.-China competition is playing out for high-tech advantage 011
Isaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Grateful for the chance to testify in the House this week about "China's strategic port investments in the Western Hemisphere"...including extensive analysis of the Panama Canal, ZPMC cranes, and the unwisdom of PLA power projection in this hemisphere. homeland.house.gov/hearing/exam...homeland.house.govExamining the PRC’s Strategic Port Investments in the Western Hemisphere and the Implications for Homeland Security, Part I – Committee on Homeland Security 142
Reposted by Isaac KardonSarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 28/01/2025The latest trend in ship design: broken ⚓️ , for a rugged look 🎉 181
Reposted by Isaac KardonNational Committee on U.S.-China Relations @ncuscr.bsky.social · 15/01/2025Read the latest by our #PIPFellows @ibkardon.bsky.social and @sheenagreitens.bsky.social on the evolving U.S.-China-Vietnam triangle: 022
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/01/2025Today we see strategic “non-monogamy,” where countries like Vietnam are working with US on external security and meanwhile cooperating with PRC internal security (policing, surveillance, suppressing opposition). Our piece unpacks this emerging trend in global security alignment in Asia & beyond. 021
Reposted by Isaac KardonIsaac Kardon @ibkardon.bsky.social · 14/01/2025New piece with @sheenagreitens.bsky.social in @foreignpolicy.com on Vietnam and US-China security competition. We argue that this rivalry doesn’t require countries to choose the US or China as sole security partner. That type of bipolarity is Cold War 1.0. (1/2) foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/13/v...foreignpolicy.comVietnam Wants U.S. Help at Sea and Chinese Help at HomeWashington shouldn’t overestimate its influence in Hanoi. 173