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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 5h

he had leads in polls sometimes dating back to over a year prior, just made it just big enough in the right states for him to squeak in

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

If we could get some sort of guarantee he wouldn't be President due to his questionable voting record I'd be okay with it

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

2016 anyone wins frankly, it took someone who could manage even lower favorables than Trump for disaster to occur good ending is Warren taking Bernie up on the draft in 2014

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

seen it in all the discontent articles in NYT, it's always coming back to 90% of Americans hating foreign war and now some are figuring out that he always does it I think it's also trickled down to them that Netanyahu seemingly controls him (and MANY bad takes ((())) with that ugh), broke his appeal

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

for people susceptible to GOP propaganda: Israel: They weren't thinking about it 2023: attacks, Gaza being bombed, Biden (Harris) send bombs Trump: vaguely gestures about peace, and they don't remember his insane bombing record or that Biden toned it down they genuinely believed he was anti-war

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

Lot of people on here I don't think like hearing this, but ive seen the delusional people supporting "Donald the Dove" despite all the red flags since 2015. not everyone has a comprehensible media diet unfortunately this is another way Gaza really hurt Harris IMO, it was always that they mentioned

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

I cannot wait to see the total Texas bill for the GOP and what little reward it got them

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

"You hired a bunch of Nazis and you aid Holocaust deniers" "Iran! Taxes! Taxes!" genuinely curious how many of the vastly reduced number of white racists likely to vote in November whom Ossoff probably shames with this into either staying home or voting for him instead. how many like it that loud.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

I've said AES by 10 for a while

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

Right, yeah I meant the redraw districts he got them all. It's quite a shift but it does look doable with that in mind and shifts like this internal manifesting.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

yeah he's done with the GOP and I love that, I think we all do really, no surprise to me whatsoever that Maine would rally to him so strongly yeah first thing I heard is the totenkopf. hearing he was the likely nom later I was resigned, but policies I liked never made me like a Nazi tattoo guy, no

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 8h

I wish it were possible to poll in Spanish. Unfortunately it can't be done

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

The Buckhout ads are really very strange to me, sometimes it's like she's trying to moderate for the TV but doesn't seem to know how to do it. Overlapping media market, I've gotten NC-01 ads for years in Virginia. Also getting banned from the betting site was impressive

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

Yeah, at that margin everywhere, every district should be somewhat in reach? I also recall that Stein won all of the districts? Obviously not every R is Robinson, but I find it interesting that the numbers do exist. With poor GOP turnout, maybe... And that Davis outruns Cooper! That shocked me.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Almost like they're a group of people who can shift their opinions and not a boogeyman designed to cost Democrats Florida (I do not think some people on this site know this, I'd think I wouldn't have to say this, but) I will be looking into those numbers, anyhow

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

yes, unfortunately. as someone who loves his policies it galls me that my erstwhile policy allies offer credence to this narrative that he's sold out over, from what I can tell, is just nostalgia for the Nazi rapist he replaced. a guy who never fooled me. Very sad to see such unnecessary mess now

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Can't find it but the other night I saw Paxton allies paid NINE times as much for the same air time as the Talarico campaign during one sporting event recently. Yeah that and instead of Trump 2024's massive GOTV and voter registration... They're just running transphobia and ill-planned Paxton ads.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

So when it looked really red in 2024 I wasn't really processing that it was "better," only that it looked horrific. As many things did in 2024 of course. My mind was elsewhere before I'd check there With the wonders of polling in Spanish, I bet we could see a very flippable Florida. Already close!

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

I am a little guilty of this too, I literally did not realize that Florida had positive signs in 2024 until @mariafromga.bsky.social mentioned it! In 2022 I wrote it off, I had no faith in Crist or Demings, tough toodles, and I focused on the places the polls ended up heavily underestimating Dems.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Hate to break it to folks but Florida is actually pretty normal as far as responding to national trends! You just catch it a little better when you look at polling in Spanish. If only someone would try that there... Telemundo? Ah, no, they don't want to. Sorry, best we can get is Spanish in Oregon.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Hispanic voters shifted right in 2020. FL shifted right. Hispanic voters shifted right in 22-24. FL shifted right. FL Dems were incompetent in 22 compared to 24, FL came back a bit in 2024. I wish I was in 2008 rn to ask people if they thought Obama had no chance in FL after the 04 Hispanic shift.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

I should've been meaner prior but tbh I thought it was the Legacy model and now I realize it's not lol I have no idea what the hell a serious person considers a GOP strength when their President is doing worse with white people rn than Southern Dems and I've got Kansas Tilt D 💀 Dems have anxiety???

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Who wants to bet that the Democratic internal pollsters actually poll in Spanish We don't see anything in English so... Interesting eh? Almost like the second-most obvious state for wave effects this year (after Texas) is experiencing the blue wave, no matter the emotions people feel about it.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Well it's not the legacy model so that they've got Kalshi and "other forecaster ratings" lol which amounts to a bunch of free points to the GOP, because well, you know Actual fundamentals irl? Money? But it's not working... Incumbency? For some of them at least. Not much, is it!

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 8h

It’s over Mike Rogers. Ive already depicted you as the MAGA soyjack and myself as the Chad Normie Dem

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

He's very close I'll say I'm extremely nitpicking saying this, as if the people with the harshest criticisms aren't just clearly nostalgic for the rapist Very disappointing to see how many peoe have bought into that

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Loved that too Yeah I think with the amount of stink I've seen media trying to stir over it as if it was some affront to democracy and there was no mandate for Jackson (Just you know, massive support from all corners of Maine and the campaign staff and many donors), I bet they prepped for it early

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Genuinely it might be people mad that he's not Platner Because the allegation was that he's supposedly cozied up to Israel now mainly and... No???? Sigh. I have eyes and I can see sure, he's not perfect, no campaign is, but he's good and principled. Insufficiently left? The Solidarity Forever guy?

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

People saying this guy is getting ruled by consultants or something lol I'm not behind the scenes with the campaign, I'm not there, but I see a man of principles. I think Maine does too.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Ahhhhh I lose track of which ones are the actual known predators or just have the allegations waiting most likely tbh such a treaded path by now

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

He won't run tbh You'd see more by now, he may even know that vote made it a lot harder He'd be beat chairing commitees anyway frankly

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

I played rec soccer with everyone and it was fine??? who cares. but of course we gotta get kids to college somehow in a predatory world so sports scholarships -> insane behavior. terrible incentives to tear up. for now, make clear how disgusting transphobes are, they're antisocial and nosy bigots

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

goes hand in hand with the xenophobia surrounding grades I've seen white people extremely mad that their failsons don't get the best grades and nonwhite kids were doing better. some very ugly comments from there. besides all the other conservative neurosis, I see that in the insanity over sports

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Disagree, there are plenty of politicians in competitive races taking principled moral stances Abdul El-Sayed is vocally defending trans kids when folks on here already underrate his chances for moral clarity he offers on Gaza Angie Nixon is in a red state and she CAN win. She defends trans folks.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

It wouldn't have been an issue Any Dems who knew enough ball, even besides the horrific moral trespasses behind it, could've seen that Trump was going to faceplant and Dems would have a 2018 or better election at bare minimum where Ossoff wouldn't have too much trouble winning reelection.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Do you know what your chromosomes are? Do you know the ratio of your hormone production? Do you know what is indicated by your cells? Weird that I'm asking you, right? So why are you fixated on incorrectly nagging other people about their bodies? Get a life, get a biology textbook too. Get empathy.

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Rebecca R Helm @rebeccarhelm.bsky.social · 09/08/2024

Friendly neighborhood biologist here. I see a lot of people are talking about biological sexes right now. Lots of folks make biological sex seem really simple. Well, since it’s so simple, let’s find the biological roots, shall we? Let’s talk about sex...[a thread] (Reposted from the other site)

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

So he's got allegations like Russell Brand then. Wouldn't surprise me.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

No reason why a moderate Democrat like Ossoff can't do this. If this becomes an ideological problem... I'd question what the ideology is doing for you! Should be a point of agreement for all decent people how awful Republicans are. And really I think it is on here. I wish all electeds felt that way.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

It's really this simple. Just needle them on all of it. They are cartoon villains. Every one has a closet jam-packed with skeletons, they're all party to crimes and horrors. Their views are deeply evil and sociopathic. We've been missing this. Biden was too nice musing about beating Trump up.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

It's really ironic to say of a guy who voted for the horrid LR Act but this is what people want, Dems not afraid of their own shadow describing Republicans without sanitization and not giving into any cordiality framing. 10 years ago you don't hear this in a "purple" state. bsky.app/profile/atru...

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah, we've got savvier Dems finally and I guess everybody is fairly young. Jackson is among the oldest? But he's still a lot younger than Collins so it works. This is making me more thankful there's no VA-SEN debate. Warner is better off with a spreadsheet and a series of slides and a roundtable.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Projecting confidence works wonders

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah, this is why his name keeps coming up, he stirs that in people But no, can't have LR Act voter doing that and he's making zero moves towards it Should he chair a committee where we drag Republicans into it to be eviscerated for being criminals? 1000% yes

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

yeah this is very different from Ossoff but just as brutal lol GOP not having a good time in debates this year, is Iowa supposed to be the bright spot in that regard? I would've been really bored watching a Virginia debate unfortunately so I much prefer this

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah I think the appeal folks see is that we have a lot of courtroom drama / lawyer procedural shows etc Deep down a lot of people enjoy the idea of a Senator Matlock It's a telegenic Type of Guy thanks to culture Also because most people do not regularly tune in for Dems being tough on the GOP

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 10h

I don't think that's how things work lol Correlated probabilities... If the polls all point to something (Never mind that they actually point harder than stated), then it's probably happening! Also rip no Spanish polling really skewing Florida

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 11h

This is in a Trump+38.79 county in Texas btw (Nacogdoches) Been trending right since 2004 and was last that red in 1988. That's where the turnout is looking bad. which perfectly matches Virginia 2025 + 26 EV...

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