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Nick Hagerty

@hagertynw.bsky.social
1.5K followers 431 following 93 posts

Environmental & resource economist, assistant professor at Montana State. Water, ag, land use, climate, development, research methods

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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The number of NIH competitive awards is down 50% from 2025, and down ~70% from prior years. Even if they catch up by the end of the year, only wealthy institutions can bridge these huge funding gaps.They're killing science-and violating the constitution-by weaponizing the bureaucracy
figure showing the trends I detail in the tweet text
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Carly Urban @carlyurban.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Do you have a paper on financial decision-making? Want to present research & hike? Does Bozeman in early August sound good? The Financial Decision-making Conference is Aug 6-7! Submission deadline April 20. The call for papers is here: fdmconference.pages.dev#cfp
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I don't think people fully appreciate how apocalyptic things are for US science. I haven't had any new funding since 2024, but I'm still ok since typical grants are for three years. This means next year I will be completely out of funding and will have to fire everyone in the lab. It's not great.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
On the table: the first-ever interstate water transfer on the Colorado River! Could be a valuable precedent for more flexible management in the future
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
A reminder to East Coast based media. Here in Bozeman winter just never came.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
There's no such thing as a best fruit. All types of fruit run from terrible to life-affirming. All preferences across varieties vanish in the face of within-variety differences in quality.
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Dara Lind @daralind.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
I love this America so much. I am aware that I am in a constant fight, one with existential stakes but which will not be conclusively resolved, to determine whether the America that exists is the one I love or the one people like Rubio love. But it is a fight to which I am wholly committed.
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Marshall Burke @marshallburke.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Should we be climate adaptation optimists? A nice new paper by Matt Burgess, Matt Kahn, and colleagues argues yes. I'm not so sure. Optimism is not a plan, and we need a plan. Some thoughts: www.stanfordecholab.com/blog/should-...
stanfordecholab.com
Should we be climate adaptation optimists? — ECHO: Environmental Change and Human Outcomes Lab | Stanford University
by: Marshall B , with helpful feedback & additions from Andrew W and Chris C Yes, argues a recent working paper by Matt Burgess, Patrick Brown, Matt Kahn, and Roger Pielke Jr.  The pa...
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Ah I can do this too! The secret to memorizing which type of error is Type II is just to memorize that a false negative is Type II. Problem solved!!
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
My approach is even more AI-proof! Draw the function, stop and stare at it, sheepishly comment "I can never remember whether concave means up or down," realize none of the students is going to rescue you, and just stand there awkwardly for a while
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Looks like an attempt to redefine "abundance" as its opposite, for both the colloquial and recent political senses of the word
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Alex Pretti was an ICU nurse serving veterans. He died trying to protect protestors being assaulted. A group of anonymous & masked men fired chemicals into his face, beat him, disarmed him, and shot him in broad daylight in front of witnesses. Then his government smeared him & defended his murder.
picture of Alex Pretti
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Air pollution is incredibly bad for human health. It causes a large share of chronic disease and deaths. This is one of the strongest empirical findings in all of economics and epidemiology. The EPA saying it's "uncertain" is not based in science. It's a pretext.
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Kyle Meng @kylemeng.com · 12/01/2026
Human health benefits are by far the largest benefit from most environmental regulations. By not monetizing these benefits moving forward, the Trump EPA is essentially saying there are no human health benefits to reducing air/toxic/climate pollution, improving drinking water quality, etc. 1/
nytimes.com
E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved When Setting Rules on Air Pollution
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Call is open! Submit your abstracts for the BIG SKY WORKSHOP on the Economics of Agriculture and the Environment June 18-19, 2026, in Bozeman, Montana, hosted by Montana State University and PERC. Travel funding available for grad students www.bigskyworkshop.net/abstract-sub...
Banner saying the same thing as the post
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Fire alarm from the Fed Chair, explicitly calling out political intimidation from the president. The Fed never, ever releases videos speaking directly to the American people like this. Interfering with the Fed is the road to instability and inflation much worse than we've seen since Covid.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
To test that idea we would need careful empirical research. But there are good reasons to doubt the casual relationship is straightforward.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
The comment and headline are incredibly misleading -- its "analysis" is a spreadsheet tabulation of R&D expenditures. It provides no support whatsoever for the claims about how research funding affects food prices.
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Matthew Hayek @matthewhayek.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Land sparing's global "brutal math" is inescapable: from 1961-2020, global population grew 2.6x and agricultural output increased nearly 4x, but total ag land grew by only about 7.6% and croplands by 20-25%. www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/.... 8/
ers.usda.gov
Global Changes in Agricultural Production, Productivity, and Resource Use Over Six Decades | Economic Research Service
From 1961 to 2000, agricultural output nearly quadrupled, mostly achieved by increases in productivity as new resources were brought into the production process, the use of inputs intensified, and the...
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
Super helpful thread, thanks. I also see a lack of counterfactual thinking here. Yes, deforestation today has various causes and is happening despite land intensification in ag. But it would very likely be even worse if we had lower crop yields!
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Matthew Hayek @matthewhayek.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
My New Year's resolution is improve how I start Bluesky threads. I forget to announce what they're about. So: please check out this thread if you're either highly critical or gung-ho about the merits of the Green Revolution, "land-sparing" and maximizing yields using industrial agriculture.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Only if depts don't adjust standards downward. I feel like most places got more lenient with exams over the last decade but are now going to have to be strict if they want to make sure their students have learned things
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
There are mechanisms that could align incentives but they're not great. Firms could require a commitment to stay with them for a long time (creating a type of indentured servitude). New grad programs with more soft skills might sub for early jobs (creating more debt & delay in starting careers).
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Isn't it a classic case of firms not internalizing the benefits of training? Their entry-level employees can leave and become mid-career employees somewhere else
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Finally caring about the federal budget deficit after spending nearly my entire adult life wanting more deficit spending Exactly what textbooks say you should do as conditions change... But sounds like I'm just getting more fiscally conservative as I age
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
Like the real reasons I suspect most people are upset, this article is supposedly about "affordability" but is actually entirely about housing People complain about the price of eggs but eggs don't ruin your hope of a secure middle-class life. Housing does. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/20/u...
nytimes.com
These Young Adults Make Good Money. But Life, They Say, Is Unaffordable.
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
This is a terrible development. The Administration is destroying the scientific institutions that helped make America great. It will take years to rebuild from this.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
People are already having smaller families. Please look at the graph I linked, and maybe this as well: ourworldindata.org/fertility-ra... Your wish has already been achieved in birth rates, it's just going to take another century or so to be reflected in total population.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
They already are. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_p...
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Are you volunteering to leave? If it's you or me, I'd like to stay please
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Great piece overall. One factual correction: the Central Valley does not use Colorado River water. You're thinking of the Imperial Valley.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
I thought this was at least partly reverse causality - development being welcoming to people who want to do behavioral field experiments (and who maybe were never primarily interested in big development questions)
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
I agree apple pie is not very good when it isn't made with pears and Kerrygold butter
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
We had such a great time last year! For questions, ask any of the organizers: Nicole Karwowski, Kelsey Larson, @sarasutherland.bsky.social, Eric Edwards, me
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Save the date! Announcing the 2nd Annual... ** BIG SKY WORKSHOP ** on the Economics of Agriculture and the Environment Hosted by @montanastate and @PERCtweets in Bozeman, MT, June 18-19, 2026 Call for abstracts in January. Travel funding available for grad students More info: bigskyworkshop.net
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Elisa Xi Chen @elisaxchen.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Summers called this female Chinese economist “peril.” “Yellow peril” was partially built on the claim that Chinese women were sexually immoral threats. That logic fueled the Page Act of 1875, which barred Chinese women by presuming they were prostitutes, even before the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Ooh ooh soy-faced nasally-voiced regulatory apparatchik
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Put another way, I like Corrine and her work, but I would not want to establish a norm that we can't make fun of airport books by business school professors
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Well to be fair economists have a history of not engaging super generously with other disciplines Plus there are many other dimensions of power dynamics here besides age. Econ in general enjoys more influence & pay than other fields, and even more so a prof at a top B-school vs. at a small college
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
It's a common misunderstanding -- other disciplines often publish their research in books, so they see economists' books as unrigorous, but that's because they are -- the real research is elsewhere
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Ah thanks for the correction
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
The even bigger point everyone is missing is that this is a POPULAR PRESS book. It never claims to present original scholarly insights. It takes lots of existing ideas and tries to communicate them in accessible ways. It lacks proper academic attribution because it's not a proper academic work.
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
This isn’t actually a thread of different posts. It’s all just different cultivars of a single post
The “That's On Me, I Set the Bar Too Low” meme, but edited to reference Brassica oleracea. Text as follows:
 
Jake: I'm an expert on vegetables
Jess: Oh yeah? Name ten vegetables
Jake: Brassica oleracea
Jess: That's on me, I set the bar too low.
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Center for Effective Global Action @cega-uc.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
💧 Small-scale irrigation supports farmer livelihoods but can strain groundwater resources. How do we strike a balance? Join us on Oct 23 for a session on Balancing Small-Scale Irrigation Solutions with Ram Fishman & @hagertynw.bsky.social. Register: go.cega.org/registerATAIwebinar
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Reposted by Nick Hagerty
AERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
📢 Out now in the September 2025 issue of #JAERE! 📢 "Industrial Water Pollution and Agricultural Production in India" by Nick Hagerty ( @hagertynw.bsky.social ) and Anshuman Tiwari. Read it here: buff.ly/oAalYIW 📈📉 #Econsky
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
For people in Bozeman! We're voting on a ballot initiative this fall that sounds good but would cause some huge problems (Precautionary disclaimer: we wrote this as private citizens, not representing our employer) www.bozemandailychronicle.com/opinions/gue...
bozemandailychronicle.com
Kelsey Larson, Nick Hagerty & Justin Gallagher: WARD would hurt housing, environment
The WARD ballot initiative claims it will encourage sustainability and support affordable housing in Bozeman.
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Nick Hagerty @hagertynw.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Cool, maybe, thanks! I hadn't seen this paper and will have to take a look (and it didn't exist when we wrote the paper...)
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