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Greg Linden

@glinden.bsky.social
2.1K followers 298 following 1.7K posts

an internet relic, linkedin.com/in/glinden

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Reposted by Greg Linden
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 3h
‘If AI doesn’t deliver on its promise then we face a double blow to growth: because AI didn’t expand our productive capacity as hoped, and because other investments which might have didn’t take place.’ www.ft.com/content/bf40...
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Zoe Tillman @zoetillman.bsky.social · 1h
NEW: A US trade judge approved class-action status for a legal fight over $166B+ in refunds for President Trump’s global tariffs, finding that it was necessary to make sure tens of thousands of importers, esp. small businesses, aren't shut out of getting money back buff.ly/Q1faoU8
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h
SPECIAL REPORT: Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast. 🧵(1/6) Read more: isw.pub/UkraineDisru...
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e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 6h
Elon Musk is receiving the National Medal of Science, raising the question: when exactly has he ever done science, of any kind? www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
usatoday.com
Trump to award science medals to Elon Musk and others
Almost all of the award recipients or their companies have donated to either Trump’s campaign, his inauguration fund or the White House ballroom project.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 6h
In a political system where companies can be gouged for unlimited cash, inconsistent application of the law is a powerful financial opportunity. At some point some of these companies might realize they are better off under a predictable and impartial legal system rather than a personalist one.
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Harry McCracken @harrymccracken.com · 6h
This seems meaningless unless AWS dumps AI for SI, which is exceedingly unlikely, since it would be a terrible business decision.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 6h
Don't commit crimes for the orange conman might be a better idea. Trump may not give these pardons (his mood is more likely to be I-was-betrayed burn-it-down at the end). And at least some of these crimes can be charged at the state level. He can't and won't protect you from the legal system.
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Mark Riedl @markriedl.bsky.social · 8h
Watching OpenAI bumble through doing mathematics with AI in real time
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 19h
Oh cool, he’s doubling down on this.
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Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 15h
Yet again, the EU surrenders to Trump. After facing pressure from the US State Department, @kajakallas.bsky.social's EU foreign service pulled out of a conference this week at the last minute – because one of the panels dared to discuss American disinfo in Europe.
theguardian.com
EU drops sponsorship of disinformation conference at Trump officials’ request
Lithuania and Canada were also pressured to withdraw, and days before #Disinfo2026, logos were wiped off website
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 11h
Saudi Arabia spent years bribing Trump (and Kushner) but now the war with Iran Trump started—and is losing—has expanded, and the US under Trump can’t/won’t fulfill its side of the deal. I talked about the Iran war, Yemen, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, oil and Trump with @thebradblog.bsky.social.
bradblog.com
Saudi Arabia’s Trump Family Bribes Not Paying Off as War Expands in Middle East
Guest: Nicholas Grossman, foreign affairs professor at Univ. of IL; Also: Big Oil's big SCOTUS battle against state climate liability lawsuit; And much more toil and trouble...
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 10h
Im sure this is nothing
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Steve Benen @stevebenen.com · 07/10/2026
For years, even Democrats who liked Medicare for All assumed it was too unpopular to endorse. It’s time for them to reassess: The latest KFF poll found 66% public support for Medicare for All, an all-time high. (It’s even increasingly popular among Republicans) www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...
ms.now
National poll shows unprecedented public support for Medicare for All
For years, Democrats feared that the reform lacked public support. A new survey suggests it’s time to reassess those assumptions.
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CNN @cnn.com · 9h
The United States military has had 81 aircraft destroyed or damaged in the war with Iran, a Congressional Research Service report released this week says. cnn.it/4rPSDww
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Andrew Curry @andrewcurry.com · 13h
Wooden tools crafted by Neanderthals at hunting sites have been found before. For the first time, there's now evidence from a domestic context too. “We know what was happening in the kitchen, in the sleeping areas,” says @iphes-cerca.bsky.social's M. Gema Chacón. “It’s like a snapshot.” @science.org
science.org
Neanderthals were skilled woodworkers, first-of-its-kind tool trove reveals
Find in Spanish cave provides rare window into the domestic lives of our closest relatives
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Butlerian Jihadist of House Dornick @shimminykricket.blacksky.app · 21h
Harvard just dropped a study AI productivity in software engineering and it found the average increase in productivity from using Claude code is.....zero and for exactly the reasons you'd think fion.ac/jellyfish.pdf
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Paul Waldman @paulwaldman.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
In case you were wondering, they STILL haven't managed to fix the Reflecting Pool, six months after work began
Livestream image taken from the Washington Monument, showing the Reflecting Pool still empty
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Cost to the US for blockading Iran and trying to escort tankers through Hormuz (ballpark est.): An aircraft carrier takes around $7m/day to operate. The Navy has two operating there, plus about 20 more ships. So we're spending over $100m/week, plus munitions costs, for lower shipping than pre-war.
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
We are spending this much money, not for some vital national interest, but in order to secure oil shipments from the Gulf Monarchies to China so that oil prices don't spike before the midterms. There are Navy guys who haven't seen their family in 8 months doing it so the GOP can maybe win KS-SEN
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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The charges, press releases & online amplification create the illusion that non-citizen voter fraud is widespread. This is a strategic, manufactured, false narrative. Statistics show non-citizen voting is extremely rare, & in the few cases that exist often results from confusion, not willful fraud.
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
ah well nonetheless www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Ramps Up Ship Attacks in Hormuz as Oil, Gas Flows Rise
Iran has increased the pace of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, just as oil shipments through the world’s most important energy chokepoint approach prewar levels.
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Quinta Jurecic @qjurecic.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
this reads like doj is saying the guy did a really great fraud
North Carolina Man Sentenced To 18 Months In Prison For Super Intelligence-Assisted Music Streaming Fraud
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I wasn't aware that Alexa and especially Alexa+ were considered particularly successful. I think of them as bad overpromise and underdeliver, especially in the last several years. Curious.
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
7/ The Houthis significantly expanded the scale of their attacks on Saudi military and civilian infrastructure on October 5, likely to compel Saudi Arabia to abandon its support for ongoing Yemeni government counteroffensives.
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Sean O’Kane @okane.fyi · 07/10/2026
SpaceX is basically daring lenders to pony up $40 billion so it can buy Nvidia chips on what sounds like a cocktail napkin www.ft.com/content/d3f5...
Musk's limited financial disclosures have kept some investors away from SpaceX debt in the past.
Investors who SpaceX has previously approached about financing its multibillion-dollar chip purchase said they only received a short two-page deal memo with pictures of outer space and an arrow pointing out that the company was going to build data centres "somewhere in the universeẠạ
"How are we supposed to take that to the
IC?" one of the people said, referring to the in-house investment committee that
approves transactions.
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Onion Free Handouts Party in Seattle tonight! Free booze, food, newspapers, other stuff. Space is extremely limited, but you can sign up here:
theonion.com
SeattleParty2026
Read More
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
In calling on Teheran to wipe out Los Angeles and San Diego, Trump challenged long-standing norms of presidential comportment.
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Trump's call for a massive terrorist attack on Los Angeles and San Diego raises eyebrows in some liberal circles.
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Trump called for a massive Iranian attack on Los Angeles. But what did he really mean?
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Will Oremus @willoremus.com · 06/10/2026
Fun fact: Tesla went with a giant touchscreen instead of knobs for the Model 3 purely to save time and money. Knobs would have required spinning up a whole supply chain. The company spun it as a luxury feature and much of the industry followed suit. But it was always an inferior substitute.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 06/10/2026
The world where neoclouds run out of money and NVIDIA's revenues drop 90%, where hundreds of billions of hyperscaler revenue bookings evaporate, is at this point inevitable. The worst part of it was that the warning signs were always there. www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch/
Even if you think AI is the most wonderful, beautiful software tool ever imagined, there is no rational basis under which you can look at the current economic picture and say that everything will be fine. 

The future I am talking about — one where most data center debt goes unpaid, where OpenAI and Anthropic fail to meet their obligations, and when AI GPU sales grind to a halt — involves Google, Microsoft and Amazon having catastrophic misses on their earnings expectations, and their future revenue growth stories collapsing, along with NVIDIA’s revenues dropping as much as 90% once the debt-backed AI capex boom ends. It involves CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius, and every other neocloud running out of money, fucking over investors in both their stock and debt some time in the next few years, with the underlying collateral made up of otherwise-useless data center construction and GPUs that will, at that point, be in a supply glut rivaling the Atari video game burial.

I must be clear that I only have to be half right for things to be extremely bad. NVIDIA’s revenue growth cannot be sustained without endless debt issuance at a time when issuing debt is incredibly expensive, all in pursuit of data center construction that takes years to complete for customers that may or may not exist when it does so. Hyperscalers have no other hypergrowth ideas left — no new Google Search, Microsoft 365, or Facebook — to sell investors, and in pursuit of AI have become the most asset-burdened companies on the Fortune 500, rivaling ExxonMobil, Berkshire Hathaway and Chevron, except instead of oil and diverse stocks they have GPUs that only retain value during a hype cycle.

And there really is no hope for the $800 billion or so invested in AI startups in the last four years, as AI acquisitions are thin thanks to their high costs, miserable revenues and utter lack of intellectual property. I’m not sure venture capital — or anyone covering venture capital — has actually conceptualized how significant the losses may be, because I can see a world where virtually every AI investment goes to zero at a time when venture capital is facing an historic losing streak.

In fact, I’m not sure anyone is trying to conceptualize what actually happens once the bubble bursts, because doing so requires you to think not just in terms of wasted capital, but about hundreds of billions of dollars of unpaid loans, dead AI investments, half-finished data center projects, and a stock market where 24% of the S&P 500’s value comes from five companies with stock prices boosted by theoretical returns on AI investments that are mostly from OpenAI and Anthropic.

The fact we’re living in this bizarre juxtaposition of reality where we can run headlines about OpenAI-connected data centers never getting completed and its massive losses aside headlines about $50 trillion in data center construction by 2050 is a sign that nobody is taking the threat seriously enough. I would love to say that I think I’m overreacting somehow, but I spend every single week running the numbers and actively looking for evidence that I’m wrong, mostly because the world, despite discussing the fragility of the AI bubble, doesn’t seem to want to think about it actually bursting. 

I encourage you to do so, even if you’re pro-AI, even if you truly disagree with me, because this is extremely serious, and you can’t pay $1.3 trillion in commitments with hope. You can truly, madly love LLMs, you can name your dog Dario and your guinea pig Sam, I don’t care, but please, I’m begging you, stop making assumptions based on the best-case scenario, and start taking this seriously, because the consequences of me being right have global stakes.
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Former German spy chief arrested on suspicion of treason. Looks really bad. If these accusations prove true, it's one of the worst intelligence scandals involving any agency anywhere. Thread.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is either a shift because it hasn't been useful enough or a shift to cheaper models that are similarly useful. Either way, it doesn't bode well for hopes of massive revenue growth for these AI startups.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Microsoft internal Claude spend estimate has been slashed by more than a third Meta is experiencing a similar internal shift...Claude Code usage recently dropping to roughly 30,000 employees from approximately 60,000 earlier this year
theinformation.com
Microsoft Slashes Internal Claude Spending by a Third
Meta Platforms and Microsoft, two of Anthropic’s biggest corporate customers, are working to cut their employees’ use of Claude, a challenge for the AI firm’s efforts to sustain its explosive growth. ...
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Blake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
POV: your global strategic footprint is imperiled by marginally upgraded toy airplanes.
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Noah Berlatsky @nberlat.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
dictatorships are incredibly inefficient, as you'd know if you ever read a fucking book you pissbaby nazi wannabe.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“.. There aren’t any more inventories to drain in the West,” Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of Vitol Group, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday. “We drained the available inventory.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Deborah Pearlstein @debpearlstein.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
How nice for them. Next question: which act of Congress authorized this expenditure of federal funds? Quaint it may be, but our constitution forbids drawing funds from the treasury except pursuant to acts of congress.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Wikipedia is one of the few good things left on the internet, remarkably resilient in these times of propaganda and scams. But rather than feeding that success, we get this.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Wikipedia is one of the few good things left on the internet, remarkably resilient in these times of propaganda and scams. But rather than feeding that success, we get this.
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Mark Riedl @markriedl.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Wikimedia believes that OpenAI agent swarms made changes to non-public-facing files and changed some internal system configurations wikimediafoundation.org/news/2026/10...
wikimediafoundation.org
OpenAI “rogue” agent activities found on Wikimedia projects – Wikimedia Foundation
Wikimedia Foundation found “rogue” OpenAI agents on its wikis, raising concerns about risks to its free knowledge projects and the open web.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
All these AI bets require something to happen that's not happening. So a crash is inevitable. Unfortunately, the AI bubble is now so big that it'll collapse the tech markets and cause a global recession when it does pop.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Unless the expensive models are much better, which they aren't, everyone is going to use the cheaper, smaller, specialized, open source models. If so, they'll be a only a tiny business in selling models and at least x1/4 the size business in selling compute and hardware.
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This seems good! electrek.co/2026/10/05/g...
electrek.co
Gas cars fall below 50% of global new car sales for the first time
Gas cars made up 49% of global new car sales in the first half of 2026, down from 73% in 2021. But hybrids are taking as much share as EVs.
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Greg Greene (he/him/his) @greene.haus · 05/10/2026
It's what explains why Musk runs roughshod over environmental or consumer-safety laws, and Meta thumbs its nose at corporate-tax laws: experience has taught them to expect no punishment. It's elite impunity in practice: when you're a star, they let you do it.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 05/10/2026
‘The world’s oil stockpiles are now “scarily thin”, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco said, adding that it would take up to two years to rebuild inventories depleted during the Middle East conflict.‘ www.ft.com/content/53e8...
ft.com
Saudi Aramco chief warns world’s oil stockpiles are ‘scarily thin’
Amin Nasser says inventories depleted by Middle East conflict could take up to two years to rebuild
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John Scalzi @scalzi.com · 05/10/2026
This is your occasional reminder that generative "AI" in particular could have been developed on public domain materials and/or licensed and compensated works but the major players intentionally, methodically and systemically chose to steal labor from working creative folks instead
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jkavanagh.bsky.social @jkavanagh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
“What we’re seeing here is, from the racial hatred to the stupidity of things like the tariffs, if you hurt people enough, they will potentially eventually abandon you. You cannot just keep hurting them over and over again and expect loyalty. That does eventually matter.”
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Also: "Democrats ... will also have to prove to the American people that they will be immune to the inevitable attempts by Big Money to buy them off through campaign contributions and back-room deals ... the Big Money will certainly try."
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Greg Linden @glinden.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Krugman writes: "The level of corruption that Trump has engaged in and enabled in others is completely unprecedented ... gag level ... Congressional hearings and investigations ... can vastly elevate the visibility of the extent of the outright looting and vandalism of this country by Trump."
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