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Giuseppe Carteny

@giucarny.bsky.social
285 followers 301 following 64 posts

Post-Doc @ Saarland University #polsci #politicalbehaviour #politicalattitudes #partypolitics #manifesto #rstats 🌐 giuseppecarteny.com

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Reposted by Giuseppe Carteny
Gianluca Piccolino @gippone.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
📣 Fiducia nelle istituzioni, democrazia, futuro dell'UE: la tua voce conta! Partecipa al sondaggio della Cost Action #EUPopLink sul futuro dell'Europa e aiutaci a diffonderlo! 🗳️ @eupoplink.bsky.social get.epoll.eu/index.php/48...
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Alex Hartland @alexhartland.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📄 New Publication 📄 When AI Talks Politics: How reliable is ChatGPT? Co-authored with Daniela Braun, @giucarny.bsky.social and @rosanavarrete.bsky.social Now available Open Access @electoralstudies.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵
sciencedirect.com
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 02/09/2026
Narrative seeding is a thing, which means it's going to be a incredibly stupid winter here in DE when gas gets scarce and this stinkflower blooms.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Spent an hour wondering whether the email was real or an unusually elaborate scam. Turns out it was real: Daniela and I won the 2025 Fritz Thyssen Prize for Social Science Articles 1st prize 🏆 campus.uni-saarland.de/preis-der-fr... The article: shorturl.at/2jowF #shamelessselfpromotion
campus.uni-saarland.de
Preis der Fritz Thyssen Stiftung | campus | Das Web-Magazin der Universität des Saarlandes
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
A reminder that research does not have to be only competition, deadlines and pressure. Care, patience and solidarity matter too.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The paper was completed despite life throwing some serious curveballs our way, which inevitably delayed the work. The understanding we received meant a lot. I’m very grateful to @tantovale.bsky.social, the reviewers, and then to the #Frontiers team, for their support and patience.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
#UNTWIST brought me closer to gender studies and deeper into computational methods, shaping where I want to take my research next. It also allowed me to meet some amazing researchers and genuinely wonderful people.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
A more personal note: this paper also feels a little like the closing of a chapter. It comes at the end of almost three years of work within the @horizoneu.bsky.social project #UNTWIST. An experience that has meant a great deal to me, professionally and personally.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
So I see the paper as an important step, not an endpoint. Next for MGA: further improve the measurement strategy and ultimately make the repository, dataset and models publicly available for other researchers to use, test and improve. 📄 doi.org/10.3389/fpos...
doi.org
Frontiers | Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe
Gender-related issues have become increasingly contentious in European politics, but comparative research on how parties address them remains limited. Existi...
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
❗ Important limitation: measuring positions computationally remains difficult. Opposition to gender equality does not necessarily appear as an explicit negative sentence. It can work through framing, discourse or selective appropriation—and may be more visible in political communication.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Left-wing, green and, to a lesser extent, liberal parties tend to be more attentive and supportive on a wide range of issues. Christian democratic parties pay particular attention to care, welfare, and family-related issues. Radical right-wing parties tend to be the least supportive.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Parties differ not only in whether they support or oppose particular claims, but also in which gender-related issues they choose to emphasize in the first place.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
🔍 What do we find? Gender-related issues have become substantially more prominent in European party manifestos over time, although with important differences across topics. And it is not just the amount of attention that has changed. The range of issues has expanded too.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
From 412 manually coded manifestos, we use transformer-based topic classification + zero-shot stance classification. This extends the analysis to 1,972 manifestos, 511 parties, 29 European countries and more than six decades of party competition, from 1961 to 2025.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Our starting point: “gender” is not a single political issue. We developed a coding scheme for 24 gender-related topics. zenodo.org/records/1147...
zenodo.org
Gender codification of 412 national (general) and European Parliament elections in six European countries (2003-2021)
This dataset has been produced by applying the Manifesto Gender Analysis (MGA) codebook to 412 national (general) and European Parliament elections in the six countries participating in the UNTWIST pr...
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
We hope the corpus will be useful for research on European elections, party competition, political communication, manifestos and text-as-data. #Euromanifesto #SOUNDS #TextAsData 📚 Data and documentation archived at GESIS: search.gesis.org/research_dat... 💻 Github repo: github.com/giucarny/em24
search.gesis.org
GESIS-Suche
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
A huge thanks to Philipp König, @divyamani.bsky.social, @annreinl.bsky.social, @rosanavarrete.bsky.social, @alexhartland.bsky.social, Spencer J. Corp, and Sayman Johannes Rohleder-Stribl for their work collecting, checking, documenting and preparing the corpus.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This was a very collaborative effort. The collection was finalised by the Euromanifesto team of SOUNDS – Societal Observatory Using Novel Data Sources at @uni-saarland.de, led by Daniela Braun and @ingmarweber.de.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
What does the corpus include? 📄 Full election manifestos 📑 Shorter electoral programmes 🗳️ Other relevant campaign material where no comparable programme was available Plus metadata on parties, electoral lists, document type, source, vote shares and more.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The corpus covers 233 of the 268 electoral lists recorded in the official 2024 EP election results, across 25 EU countries. In the countries covered, the documents represent on average more than 92% of valid votes.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
📢 The Euromanifesto Study 2024 Documents are now available! We collected, checked and systematised electoral programmes and campaign materials from across Europe for the 2024 European Parliament elections. A new resource for studying the 2024 EP campaign 🧵
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Count Binface @countbinface.bsky.social · 19/07/2023
Under a Binface government, anyone who doesn’t accept human-made climate change as fact will be sent back to school, from Year 1 right the way to A Levels, to see if anything goes in the second time round. #VoteBinface
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Agree with every word of this excellent post but especially this www.speakandregret.michaelinzlicht.com/p/my-p-hacki...
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Desperate ayatollahs in your area want to meet
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Professor Daniele Albertazzi @dralbertazziuk.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
"It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
Voters across parties believe UK net migration is rising despite sharp drop
Study, published as latest migration figures are released, shows incorrect perceptions driving immigration debate
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Endre Borbáth @eborbath.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I’m hiring 2 doctoral researchers in Politics of Climate Change at Heidelberg University 🌍 📊 Survey Research & Political Participation 🗣️ Qualitative Research & Group Formation Part of “The New Climate Divide” Deadline: 21 June 2026 Calls: www.ipw.uni-heidelberg.de/en/about-us/... Please share!
ipw.uni-heidelberg.de
Job Vacancies - Institute for Political Science
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
burn after reading "what did we learn, Palmer?"
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
A party that is resolutely anti-bourgeois while being staffed and supported by the bourgeoisie is an intriguing and inevitably impossible strategy. Anyway good luck attracting those Reform voters who hate you.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Another story from Gorton & Denton...
thetimes.com
Matt Goodwin’s academic project was debunked as ‘total garbage’
Reform’s Gorton & Denton by-election candidate left a right-wing think tank ‘with his tail between his legs’ when work was exposed, sources tell The Times
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 13/02/2026
2025 open acces {#tbp|#ThrowBackPaper): The Radical Right Research Robot: a model for political science comms on splintered social media #radicalright @rrresrobot.bsky.social 🤖
tandfonline.com
Automating awareness, digitizing dissemination: the radical right research robot as a template for (political) science communication in a fragmented social media landscape
Over the last 15 years, social media have become an integral part of the science infrastructure. The emergence of ‘Science Twitter’, the collective of scholars active on the platform now known as ‘...
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Reposted by Giuseppe Carteny
David Roberts @volts.wtf · 13/02/2026
New economic research: "We estimate that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time."
econofact.org
The Economic Costs of Brexit on the UK | Econofact
Brexit has had a substantial economic impact on the United Kingdom, with adverse effects on investment, productivity, employment, and growth.
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Killing the CIA World Factbook might seem like small potatoes, but it was a touchstone of curated facts in a sea of disinformation.
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Zack Polanski @zackpolanski.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Drug laws have never stopped people from using drugs. They've stopped people from using drugs safely. It's time to legalise *and* regulate. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Drugs policy approach needs to change, Zack Polanski says
The Green Party leader of England and Wales says there needs to be a
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Duncan McDonnell @duncanmcdonnell.com · 03/02/2026
Coming out in June. (when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 27/01/2026
Life is stranger than fiction
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
And since it’s Christmas… 🎄✨ Grab your free copy here! 📄👇 www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KIZ5C...
tandfonline.com
Convergence, radicalisation, or ideological sorting? Exploring alignment patterns between radical and centre-right voters in Italy
Alliances between centre-right and radical right parties in Western Europe have elicited varied responses and strategic adaptations depending on the national context. In this respect, Italy present...
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Nonetheless, our study offers a complete account of how the relative weight of ideological and immigration attitudes reshaped voting probabilities inside Italy’s right-wing coalition — suggesting ideological sorting rather than contagion.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
❗Limitations: In this study we rely on cross-sectional data. Panel data for the Italian electorate are limited in scope and depth, meaning we cannot track inter-individual change (i.e., radicalisation) and must rely on aggregate proxies. Moreover, we cannot and don't make any causal claim.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Examining the coalition reveals a mechanism: Anti-immigration voters previously voted for moderate parties, and then moved towards radical ones. This indicates a form of ideological sorting rather than a clear radicalisation of the centre-right electorate as a whole.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
The correlation between ideological self-placement and voting choice did not increase linearly over time. For the electorate of the moderate-right-dominated coalition, being on the right has long mattered, and it remains almost equally important under today's radical-led coalition.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Anti-immigration sentiment has gained explanatory power, especially in 2022. These attitudes have become a stronger and more independent from ideological self-placement – this growth wouldn’t appear without controlling for left-right self-placement.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
We expected two forces to increasingly shape coalition support over time: - stronger right-wing ideological identification, - and growing anti-immigration attitudes. If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Italy is a unique case in Europe: since the mid-1990s, radical and centre-right parties have governed together repeatedly, and since 2018 the balance of power has flipped — the radical right now dominates the coalition.
From left to right: Giorgia Meloni, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi.
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
New Publication out! 🔥 Italy’s right-wing politics has changed dramatically over the past two decades. With @gippone.bsky.social and @leonardo-puleo.bsky.social we started from a basic question: Why has the radical right surged inside Italy’s right coalition? Radicalisation or something different?
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Giuseppe Carteny @giucarny.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Nice post! About the R situation, I would take a look at this other one - www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05...
andrewheiss.com
Marginalia: A guide to figuring out what the heck marginal effects, marginal slopes, average marginal effects, marginal effects at the mean, and all these other marginal things are | Andrew Heiss
Define what marginal effects even are, and then explore the subtle differences between average marginal effects, marginal effects at the mean, and marginal effects at representative values with the ma...
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 18/11/2025
If only there was a catchy name for an international coalition of #farright actors 👇
asahi.com
Sanseito moves to forge relations with right-wing forces overseas | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis
Sanseito, which advocates a “Japanese First” policy, continues to look beyond the nation’s borders to expand its influence and ride the wave of “anti-globalism” sentiment with other right-wing forces.
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Ingmar Weber @ingmarweber.de · 24/07/2025
Brahmani is presenting "Is there anything Left?: A Global Analysis on Changes in Engagement with Political Content on Twitter in the Musk Era" (journalqd.org/article/view...). Joint work with @rosanavarrete.bsky.social and @giucarny.bsky.social
journalqd.org
Is there anything Left?: A Global Analysis on Changes in Engagement with Political Content on Twitter in the Musk Era | Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media
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