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Richard Gill

@gill1109.bsky.social
299 followers 95 following 369 posts

Emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at Leiden University. British and Dutch nationalities. Research interests: forensic science, quantum information, miscarriages of justice. Other hobbies: foraging for edible mushrooms, and much more besides.

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Reposted by Richard Gill
Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
In October 2022 the case finally hit the courtroom. Surely a rigorous ten-month trial would get to the bottom of what really happened? Surely justice would be done? Wouldn’t it? (4/4) youtu.be/6D4qtjitF7A
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Years earlier, Cheshire Police had investigated wrongfully convicted Sally Clark. Learning from past mistakes, this time they engaged the services of an eminent statistician. And then dropped them. Was history about to repeat itself? (3/4) youtu.be/ikOJTE6uLoU
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Investigation of Lucy Letby - Part Two
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Before the trial, came the investigation. It didn’t so much come off the rails as never found the rails in the first place – from inception seemingly focused on a single malevolent explanation for bad outcomes on an overstretched NHS neonatal unit. (2/4) youtu.be/Y2Ed565aCm8
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Investigation of Lucy Letby - Part One
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
RELEASED: The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby It was one of the longest criminal trials in British history. Reporting restrictions meant that nothing could be challenged about what was said in court. It’s time to lift the lid. (1/4) youtu.be/6D4qtjitF7A
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
It was an honour. I’ve now also signed the open letter to UGent set up by Pieter and others. This is so important!
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Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Morning all. Interesting @guardianheather.bsky.social piece touching on wider issue: so much govt policy (& public emotion) is based on statistical data about what’s supposedly happening to the country, what if some of our stats suck? www.theguardian.com/business/202...
theguardian.com
A positive new report raises the question: was Reeves undermined by dodgy data? | Heather Stewart
Assessment’s finding of a jump in UK productivity emphasises urgent need to appoint a national statistician
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Zack Polanski @zackpolanski.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
It’s time we sorted out the press. Constant misinformation to protect their donors and fossil fuels is destroying lives and our planet. The Government must step up and stop being cowardly.
Sorry Zack Polanski this long hot summer is not the apocalypse - it's like a gloriously long holiday in France
..with village green cricket thrown in good measure
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Out-of-this-world big beefsteak fungus on oak. Forests wouldn't be forests without fungi.
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András Forgács W @andraswf.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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Peter Jukes @peterjukes.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
So I've just found this letter in defence of Nathan Cofnas, from a bunch of academics supporting 'free speech'. None of them, as far as I can see, defended Jason Arday's rights to life, privacy and free expression. Racist eugenicists get a special pass www.thetimes.com/comment/lett...
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🦉naked alien🪐 @pinealgasm.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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1kr5ur43m.bsky.social @1kr5ur43m.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
I am related to Francis Galton geni.com/03l_Kv
geni.com
Richard Gill is related to Francis Galton
Francis Galton is Richard Gill's 11th cousin five times removed!
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Beautiful!
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
A new short film from me - Lucy Letby and the Witch Hunt Machine. The official inquiry into Lucy Letby was set up to learn lessons. Is it looking in the right places? Contains new interviews with @gill1109.bsky.social and Private Eye's MD Phil Hammond. youtu.be/nNl1kNysKgw
youtu.be
Lucy Letby and the Witch Hunt Machine
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
nos.nl/artikel/2559...
nos.nl
Erasmus Universiteit verklaart scriptie staatssecretaris Maeijer ongeldig
De scriptie bevatte overgeschreven passages. Maeijer zegt een nieuwe scriptie te willen schrijven.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
youtube.com/@richardgill...
youtube.com
Richard Gill
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Lennart Ackermans @lennartack.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
When reading the literature on the Two-Envelope "Paradox" I got annoyed by how much confusion is created by treating probabilities very informally. Glad to see that my former maths teacher @gill1109.bsky.social agrees! (doi.org/10.1111/anzs...)
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
youtu.be/IZfarsXy-MA?...
youtu.be
Thoughts on True Crime Rocket Science. Can criminal psychologists fathom innocence? Is it science?
YouTube video by Richard Gill
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
This is absolutely spot on. But so, equally, is the converse: anyone who (rightly) supports Palestine, but not Ukraine, cannot and should not be taken seriously.
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Bill McKibben @billmckibben.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
We need to salute courage wherever it appears. The official snow reporter at Vermont's Sugarbush, where JD Vance came on a skiing vacation this weekend, pointed out in her snow report this a.m. that the Trump team is ignoring climate change. Her report was pulled down kottke.org/25/03/jd-van...
kottke.org
Good Trouble: JD Vance Chastised by Vermont Snow Reporter
JD Vance, fresh off of helping his boss ambush & insult a foreign leader in the White House yesterday afternoon, is on vacation in
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Covid63 @covkid53.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Hanging Judge Goss the reason #lucyletby was found guilty, the witch finder General in a Spanish inquisition inspired trial. No way was Lucy escaping the hangman's noose. He allowed Lucy to be denigrated and pilloried by the prosecution without a shred of evidence. Appalling miscarriage of justice.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
youtu.be/hERUOjjPO4c Thoughts from the churchyard on the #LucyLetby case. Triage. TTTS. Witchhunt.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
gill1109.com/2025/02/06/w...
gill1109.com
Why I am more than 99.99% certain that Lucy Letby is innocent
I use Bayes theorem: posterior odds equals prior odds times likelihood ratio. For an introduction, please read this nice blog post I use this rule, Bayes’ rule, repeatedly, each time taking a…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
The spike started when unit started accepting higher acuity babies than it was accustomed to, staffed for, & equipped for. We know why this happened. Changes began in 2014, we know why. The number of deaths during the spike was the number that should have been expected given acuity, volume. (2/2)
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social The Lucy Letby spike stopped immediately when the unit was demoted to Level 1, number of beds reduced, & 2 ward rounds a day instead of per week. They went on to fix the plumbing and to hire a neonatologist… (1/2)
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
And there it is - the police determined an event to be suspicious if it Lucy Letby was on duty. Anything bad on any other shift was ignored. Lucy was the member of staff working the most with the sickest babies. The CPS blocked any statistical analysis. I wonder why. @gill1109.bsky.social
Following contact with Cheshire Police in Summer 2018, a review of case notes was undertaken for both periods when Letby worked at LWH. The process that was followed is outlined below (data relates to both time periods, 2012 and 2015).
In order to review any potential suspicious events at LWH a review was undertaken. Ali incidents reported in the incident reporting system that included the name LL were examined. All deaths occurring on the days when LL was on duty were reviewed. The electronic patient record system (Badger system) was searched to identify any note
entries made by LL. She had contact with 33 babies on a total of 324 patient days. Each of these days of care was reviewed by a neonatal consultant to identify any unusual or suspicious deterioration in the patient's condition. In addition, all babies who were on the neonatal unit on the days when LL was on duty were identified using the Badger system. Each of these days of care were reviewed by a neonatal
consultant to identify unexpected cr unexplained deterioration in clinical condition. There were 257 babies on the unit during those days with 1,308 days of care requiring review [INQ017472]
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Happy Christmas!
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Research shows that they are quick to judge character and are then extremely confident in their judgement. Yet they are actually just as bad at judging character as anyone else. Like doctors, they are supremely confident in making life and death decisions about other people’s lives.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Judges tend to be very clever but their mind-set is bureaucratic. They follow procedures, routines, they stick to rules. They rely on authority, they dropped science and maths as early as they could, specialised in languages (living and dead).
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Who wrote the medical records used to convict Lucy Letby? In some instances, consultants who were already blaming Lucy for earlier deaths … in particular, guess who. circularityandbias.wordpress.com/2024/12/20/w...
circularityandbias.wordpress.com
Which records was he looking at?
Dr Evans’s evidence does not fit the medical notes In my first blog on the subject, I was not completely adamant of Lucy Letby’s innocence. I conceded that if Dewi Evans’s medical…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Another NHS cover up years ago in Swansea … and Dewi Evans involved. Brilliant journalism by John Sweeney and colleagues. youtu.be/QSTQ4pwt9zM
youtu.be
Episode 7: Unreliable Witness?
YouTube video by John Sweeneyroar
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
For the same reason, I also don’t blame court journalists Judith Moritz and Liz Hull. Both they and the jury are probably all badly traumatised by their 10 month experience.
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Reposted by Richard Gill
Covid63 @covkid53.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Absolutely, nobody behaves the way she did unless innocently.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
In fact, you will need to convince both. In between, you will also need to convince the medical world. Lawyers ignore statisticians, but they listen to doctors.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Thoughts on the 16 December press conference by Mark McDonald youtu.be/RpYgEjep1oY Brilliant move! In cases like #LucyLetby impossible to find evidence, new in the legal sense. But erasure of existing evidence is also “new evidence”. Dewi Evans cancelled. Goss made a mistake allowing him to testify
youtu.be
Thoughts on the 16 December press conference by Mark McDonald
YouTube video by Richard Gill
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Conversation with Mark Mayes on the Lucy Letby case. youtu.be/ykhtDWDefqU #lucyletby
youtu.be
#LucyLetby A discussion with Professor Richard Gill, on 15th Dec 2024. #LucyLetbyInnocent
YouTube video by Mark Mayes
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
I do not have a conspiracy theory. The baby killer in that unit was the NHS. Business as usual, unfortunately. You are the pathetic one.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Thing is, there is no proof there was an active murderer on the unit. Plenty of proof of intentional lies by Brearey and Jayaram.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
To lie means to knowingly tell an untruth with intention to deceive. It is very difficult to prove intention to deceive. Of course, if you believe she is a serial killer, it will be easy to find faulty memory and interpret it as lies.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Let’s not forget she’s completely innocent and the unit was a complete disaster. I blame consultants and management. No babies were murdered. Some deaths were avoidable.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Junior doctors looked up how to do stuff with Google while trying to intubate a baby. Where were the consultants? They didn’t like being bothered.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
She never lies. Her standards were very high. She was disliked for that. She texted at work as much as other nurses. Her colleagues at work texted her at home for advice.
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Yorkshire Bylines @yorkshirebylines.co.uk · 11/12/2024
🦋 ‘X’ turns dark, and the Sky turns Blue The move from X to Bluesky – a lesson on how progressives can take back control By Lisa Burton @lisaburton.bsky.social
yorkshirebylines.co.uk
'X' turns dark, and the Sky turns Blue
The move from X to Bluesky – a lesson on how progressives can take back control
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
www.theguardian.com/society/2024... Maybe a hundred million coming up when the truth about #lucyletby is accepted
theguardian.com
NHS spends £14.7bn a year treating patients in England hurt by care mistakes, says report
Experts from Imperial College London cite ‘alarming declines’ in 12 key metrics of patient safety
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
I decided it was time to find out if this year’s sloe gin was a success. Answer:yes. Amazing aroma of … almonds. Colour not as deep as I’d expected.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
My field is mathematical statistics. I have taught statistics to all kinds of students, and done statistics in all kinds of fields.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
That wasn’t a lie. That was a memory issue. Why would she lie about what she was wearing when she was arrested? There are no convincing examples at all. Plenty of examples of lies by the doctors.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
I disagree. If you want to visualise the differences between four relative frequencies, four bars with confidence intervals to indicate precision is not bad. Sure, there are other displays which give more information but which require more technical understanding.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Brilliant video. youtu.be/clvuNWxIKjQ “In the wake of the Post Office Horizon scandal, will Lucy Letby be revealed as the latest victim of a miscarriage of justice? A look at three biases that lie at the heart of both cases.”
youtu.be
Lucy Letby: A Criminal Injustice System
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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