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Richard Gill

@gill1109.bsky.social
298 followers 95 following 369 posts

Emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at Leiden University. British and Dutch nationalities. Research interests: forensic science, quantum information, miscarriages of justice. Other hobbies: foraging for edible mushrooms, and much more besides.

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Reposted by Richard Gill
Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
In October 2022 the case finally hit the courtroom. Surely a rigorous ten-month trial would get to the bottom of what really happened? Surely justice would be done? Wouldn’t it? (4/4) youtu.be/6D4qtjitF7A
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Years earlier, Cheshire Police had investigated wrongfully convicted Sally Clark. Learning from past mistakes, this time they engaged the services of an eminent statistician. And then dropped them. Was history about to repeat itself? (3/4) youtu.be/ikOJTE6uLoU
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Investigation of Lucy Letby - Part Two
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Before the trial, came the investigation. It didn’t so much come off the rails as never found the rails in the first place – from inception seemingly focused on a single malevolent explanation for bad outcomes on an overstretched NHS neonatal unit. (2/4) youtu.be/Y2Ed565aCm8
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Investigation of Lucy Letby - Part One
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
RELEASED: The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby It was one of the longest criminal trials in British history. Reporting restrictions meant that nothing could be challenged about what was said in court. It’s time to lift the lid. (1/4) youtu.be/6D4qtjitF7A
youtu.be
The BOTCHED Trials of Lucy Letby
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Morning all. Interesting @guardianheather.bsky.social piece touching on wider issue: so much govt policy (& public emotion) is based on statistical data about what’s supposedly happening to the country, what if some of our stats suck? www.theguardian.com/business/202...
theguardian.com
A positive new report raises the question: was Reeves undermined by dodgy data? | Heather Stewart
Assessment’s finding of a jump in UK productivity emphasises urgent need to appoint a national statistician
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Zack Polanski @zackpolanski.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
It’s time we sorted out the press. Constant misinformation to protect their donors and fossil fuels is destroying lives and our planet. The Government must step up and stop being cowardly.
Sorry Zack Polanski this long hot summer is not the apocalypse - it's like a gloriously long holiday in France
..with village green cricket thrown in good measure
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Out-of-this-world big beefsteak fungus on oak. Forests wouldn't be forests without fungi.
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András Forgács W @andraswf.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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Peter Jukes @peterjukes.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
So I've just found this letter in defence of Nathan Cofnas, from a bunch of academics supporting 'free speech'. None of them, as far as I can see, defended Jason Arday's rights to life, privacy and free expression. Racist eugenicists get a special pass www.thetimes.com/comment/lett...
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🦉naked alien🪐 @pinealgasm.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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1kr5ur43m.bsky.social @1kr5ur43m.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
I am related to Francis Galton geni.com/03l_Kv
geni.com
Richard Gill is related to Francis Galton
Francis Galton is Richard Gill's 11th cousin five times removed!
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
A new short film from me - Lucy Letby and the Witch Hunt Machine. The official inquiry into Lucy Letby was set up to learn lessons. Is it looking in the right places? Contains new interviews with @gill1109.bsky.social and Private Eye's MD Phil Hammond. youtu.be/nNl1kNysKgw
youtu.be
Lucy Letby and the Witch Hunt Machine
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
youtube.com/@richardgill...
youtube.com
Richard Gill
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Lennart Ackermans @lennartack.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
When reading the literature on the Two-Envelope "Paradox" I got annoyed by how much confusion is created by treating probabilities very informally. Glad to see that my former maths teacher @gill1109.bsky.social agrees! (doi.org/10.1111/anzs...)
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
youtu.be/IZfarsXy-MA?...
youtu.be
Thoughts on True Crime Rocket Science. Can criminal psychologists fathom innocence? Is it science?
YouTube video by Richard Gill
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
This is absolutely spot on. But so, equally, is the converse: anyone who (rightly) supports Palestine, but not Ukraine, cannot and should not be taken seriously.
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Bill McKibben @billmckibben.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
We need to salute courage wherever it appears. The official snow reporter at Vermont's Sugarbush, where JD Vance came on a skiing vacation this weekend, pointed out in her snow report this a.m. that the Trump team is ignoring climate change. Her report was pulled down kottke.org/25/03/jd-van...
kottke.org
Good Trouble: JD Vance Chastised by Vermont Snow Reporter
JD Vance, fresh off of helping his boss ambush & insult a foreign leader in the White House yesterday afternoon, is on vacation in
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Covid63 @covkid53.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Hanging Judge Goss the reason #lucyletby was found guilty, the witch finder General in a Spanish inquisition inspired trial. No way was Lucy escaping the hangman's noose. He allowed Lucy to be denigrated and pilloried by the prosecution without a shred of evidence. Appalling miscarriage of justice.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
youtu.be/hERUOjjPO4c Thoughts from the churchyard on the #LucyLetby case. Triage. TTTS. Witchhunt.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
gill1109.com/2025/02/06/w...
gill1109.com
Why I am more than 99.99% certain that Lucy Letby is innocent
I use Bayes theorem: posterior odds equals prior odds times likelihood ratio. For an introduction, please read this nice blog post I use this rule, Bayes’ rule, repeatedly, each time taking a…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social The Lucy Letby spike stopped immediately when the unit was demoted to Level 1, number of beds reduced, & 2 ward rounds a day instead of per week. They went on to fix the plumbing and to hire a neonatologist… (1/2)
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
And there it is - the police determined an event to be suspicious if it Lucy Letby was on duty. Anything bad on any other shift was ignored. Lucy was the member of staff working the most with the sickest babies. The CPS blocked any statistical analysis. I wonder why. @gill1109.bsky.social
Following contact with Cheshire Police in Summer 2018, a review of case notes was undertaken for both periods when Letby worked at LWH. The process that was followed is outlined below (data relates to both time periods, 2012 and 2015).
In order to review any potential suspicious events at LWH a review was undertaken. Ali incidents reported in the incident reporting system that included the name LL were examined. All deaths occurring on the days when LL was on duty were reviewed. The electronic patient record system (Badger system) was searched to identify any note
entries made by LL. She had contact with 33 babies on a total of 324 patient days. Each of these days of care was reviewed by a neonatal consultant to identify any unusual or suspicious deterioration in the patient's condition. In addition, all babies who were on the neonatal unit on the days when LL was on duty were identified using the Badger system. Each of these days of care were reviewed by a neonatal
consultant to identify unexpected cr unexplained deterioration in clinical condition. There were 257 babies on the unit during those days with 1,308 days of care requiring review [INQ017472]
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Happy Christmas!
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Who wrote the medical records used to convict Lucy Letby? In some instances, consultants who were already blaming Lucy for earlier deaths … in particular, guess who. circularityandbias.wordpress.com/2024/12/20/w...
circularityandbias.wordpress.com
Which records was he looking at?
Dr Evans’s evidence does not fit the medical notes In my first blog on the subject, I was not completely adamant of Lucy Letby’s innocence. I conceded that if Dewi Evans’s medical…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Another NHS cover up years ago in Swansea … and Dewi Evans involved. Brilliant journalism by John Sweeney and colleagues. youtu.be/QSTQ4pwt9zM
youtu.be
Episode 7: Unreliable Witness?
YouTube video by John Sweeneyroar
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Covid63 @covkid53.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Absolutely, nobody behaves the way she did unless innocently.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Thoughts on the 16 December press conference by Mark McDonald youtu.be/RpYgEjep1oY Brilliant move! In cases like #LucyLetby impossible to find evidence, new in the legal sense. But erasure of existing evidence is also “new evidence”. Dewi Evans cancelled. Goss made a mistake allowing him to testify
youtu.be
Thoughts on the 16 December press conference by Mark McDonald
YouTube video by Richard Gill
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Conversation with Mark Mayes on the Lucy Letby case. youtu.be/ykhtDWDefqU #lucyletby
youtu.be
#LucyLetby A discussion with Professor Richard Gill, on 15th Dec 2024. #LucyLetbyInnocent
YouTube video by Mark Mayes
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Yorkshire Bylines @yorkshirebylines.co.uk · 11/12/2024
🦋 ‘X’ turns dark, and the Sky turns Blue The move from X to Bluesky – a lesson on how progressives can take back control By Lisa Burton @lisaburton.bsky.social
yorkshirebylines.co.uk
'X' turns dark, and the Sky turns Blue
The move from X to Bluesky – a lesson on how progressives can take back control
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
www.theguardian.com/society/2024... Maybe a hundred million coming up when the truth about #lucyletby is accepted
theguardian.com
NHS spends £14.7bn a year treating patients in England hurt by care mistakes, says report
Experts from Imperial College London cite ‘alarming declines’ in 12 key metrics of patient safety
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
I decided it was time to find out if this year’s sloe gin was a success. Answer:yes. Amazing aroma of … almonds. Colour not as deep as I’d expected.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Brilliant video. youtu.be/clvuNWxIKjQ “In the wake of the Post Office Horizon scandal, will Lucy Letby be revealed as the latest victim of a miscarriage of justice? A look at three biases that lie at the heart of both cases.”
youtu.be
Lucy Letby: A Criminal Injustice System
YouTube video by Lucy Letby Films
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Elisabeth Bik @elisabethbik.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Bad bar charts are pervasive across biology Scientific ‘shorthand’ could be introducing data distortions into published papers. Amanda Heidt writes Nature. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Bad bar charts are pervasive across biology
Scientific ‘shorthand’ could be introducing data distortions into published papers.
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social If you believe Lucy Letby is a killer, it is impossible to understand her character. It does not make any sense. But if you believe she could be innocent, her personality and all the evidence makes perfect sense. www.theguardian.com/books/2024/d...
theguardian.com
Unmasking Lucy Letby by Jonathan Coffey and Judith Moritz review – reasonable doubt
A forensic study of the Lucy Letby case leaves many questions unanswered
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Guy Rowland @guyrowlanduk.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Astonishing paper from John O'Quigley on how the misuse of statistics invents serial killer nurses. A rigorous statistical analysis reveals Lucy Letby was suspected because of her overtime. "Put in more hours than anyone else and you may end up in prison for the rest of your life".
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
osf.io/nk9da Logical & statistical errors in investigation & prosecution of suspected serial killer nurses, by John O’Quigley, Honorary Professor, University College London, Dept Statistical Science. Lucy Letby, Lucia de Berk, Daniela Poggiali. History just keep on keeps repeating itself
osf.io
OSF
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
“True crime brewery” two excellent podcasts/youtube videos on the Lucy Letby case . Part 1 is at youtu.be/Bui0Ol-7DrE, Part 2 is at youtu.be/vsVze_V6UAw
youtu.be
Lucy Letby: The Common Denominator Part One
YouTube video by True Crime Brewery
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
In the rainforest, the morning after #StormDarragh: one of several 'casualties'. But in ecosystem terms, tree falls like this are fantastic, injecting ecological dynamism that will benefit *so* many living things. 🌎
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
The rise of neorealism. niasinjorina.wordpress.com/2022/02/18/t... Brilliant essay by @niasinjorina.bsky.social A mathematics teacher and novelist, publishes on Amazon.co.uk
niasinjorina.wordpress.com
The Rise of Neofeudalism
For millennia, a minority of humanity has wielded power over and controlled the majority for the purpose of its own enhancement. Using various models of social control, this power has been passed t…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
#lucyletby, state of play. Lucy Letby’s new barrister Mark McDonald is preparing an application to the CCRC. Sir David Davis MP is preparing action in the House of Commons. Lucy’s last appeal application was refused because it was based on science that was “known” prior to her trials. (1/2)
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Seán Moncrieff @seanmoncrieff.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
www.irishtimes.com/life-style/p...
irishtimes.com
Seán Moncrieff: I’ve rearranged our books based on colour and height. Apparently this is controversial
How else would you end up with Marion Keyes sandwiched between My Life and Loves by Frank Harris and Naomi Wolf’s biography of the vagina?
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Ah, my old university did its utmost to protect its young male students from evil women. www.theguardian.com/society/2024...
theguardian.com
Cambridge University urged to apologise over jailing of thousands of ‘evil’ women without evidence or trial
A 1561 charter granted powers to imprison young working-class women found walking with undergraduates after dark
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
I just binge watched La Brea series 1. It has everything that this brilliant review promises! My favourite: survivors find a beautiful crop of oyster mushrooms growing out of a dead tree. One shouts “they’re chicken of the woods, they’re edible!”. www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
theguardian.com
La Brea review – this sinkhole drama is gloriously, brazenly bad. I love it
An instantly annoying family fall into a sinkhole and find themselves trapped in prehistoric times with sabre-toothed tigers after them. To say the plot is by numbers is to slander numbers
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Lucy Letby and the displaced breathing tubes. Lawyers, police and journalists need to talk to statisticians. circularityandbias.wordpress.com/2024/10/23/l...
circularityandbias.wordpress.com
Lucy Letby – the breathing tube claims
On the 12th September 2024, the Thirlwall inquiry heard the shocking claim that (it was heavily implied and understood to mean) Lucy Letby had been pulling the breathing tubes from babies while wor…
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Richard Gill @gill1109.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
On the beach (part 3) youtu.be/N4iDZ7fY2PE Last morning on Texel. This stormy weather is nothing to the storm which will erupt when Lucy Letby is exonerated #freedom4lucy
youtu.be
On the beach (part 3)
YouTube video by Richard Gill
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Covid63 @covkid53.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Lucy Letby "why would I talk to you lying bastards @cheshirepolice.bsky.social ? Go do one and talk to my lawyer, give him your questions and I'll discuss my answers with him, if I have anything to say". #lucyletby
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John Paul @brightsuit.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
From a moral point of view the doctors position is worse. They "really" felt it was murder and did nothing much at all for years.
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John Paul @brightsuit.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The consultants and management were in the wrong if they had concerns they should have insisted the entire neonatal ward should close and there should be a detailed police investigation. It seems criminal that the consultants and managers did nothing if they REALLY felt it was murder.
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NineteenNurses @nineteennurses.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
And how is this even in the public interest to bring more implausible charges. Spend millions on further court cases, when the individual is serving 15 whole life terms. Something extremely disturbing with how this case been handled. #LucyLetby #UnsafeConviction
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