Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 34mQuestion: the professional wargaming community is rapidly slewing to the threats posed by AI to the discipline. The lesser challenge is maintaining traceability of events. The greater challenge is that many functions AI can easily replace are critical stepping stones to developing future designers. 110
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 40mI’m completely certain I can pull together a team out of MilSky people and some personal friends who can make better recommendations than this clown show, and might even pull off some analysis instead of ghost writing a bunch of papers no one will read. 050
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 14hWell that was fucking fascinating. I apparently also missed or memory-holed @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social’s Highway Theory, which is also annoyingly compelling. 2402
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 14hWell this is a fascinating discussion of a completely different meta-way of war. 050
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 23hIs Project Meridian a bad idea that will end up risking billions in embezzlement and bad-faith contracts? Yes. Is Musk (along with Luckey and Gingrich(????)) in charge of the future of war? lol no 170
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Two reasons. You ID’d one in the next post. The other is you’re a dumbass. Defense id very hard, so the bar for dumbass is quite high, but this is run-of-the-mill scale stupid. 120
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I clearly thought “How could this get dumber” too loudly. My b. 070
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Entirely correct on all counts. “The kill chain is a group project” is an all-time banger. 070
Reposted by Giled PallaeonRocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026If you want a post-Trump glide path to more non-US responsibilities, fine, but I think this idea that b/c MAGA (+Israel, Russia, the non-response to Russia, etc) broke the Pax Americana we have license to let affairs decline further is backwards. 291
Reposted by Giled PallaeonRocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026U.S. capabilities underpin the security orders which >a billion people live in including most of the liberal democracies. The time scale in which we can (further) break those orders by clipping our own wings in re capabilities is a lot shorter than the time scale in which non-US states can backfill. 2181
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026This is the opening offer for a U.S. interested in a sustainable force posture capable of protecting its allies and partners around the world. 070
Reposted by Giled PallaeonSharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026i think the quite literal million-dollar question is "what sort of force do you think DoD needs for the next decade?" 1151
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026This is unlikely to actually survive contact with Congress, but a CCMD with Service-like spending authority is a **terrible** idea. If you don’t believe me, look at the one that already exists (SOCOM). 2201
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I promise the Hawaiian shirts do not give you the slightest idea how completely nuts this guy is, and how being a billionaire from misleading FB melted what was left of his brain. 1100
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Can we stop fucking with requirements creation and program definition *for five minutes*? 150
Reposted by Giled PallaeonCurious Witness @curiouswitness.bsky.social · 30/09/2026This often metastasizes into an online vigilantism that makes them confrontational and prosecutorial toward anyone who hasn't made the same self-flagellating pact they have. They become insufferable, unreasonable assholes for the sake of the oppressed, often without consulting the oppressed. 0104
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026No, this is horrific, but it is also completely typical of industrial age urban combat where at least one side is not interested in collateral damage mitigation. Westerners not involved in the defense business just tend to memory hole this. See Stalingrad, Grozny, Aleppo, and most Ukrainian battles. 7195
Reposted by Giled PallaeonFaine Greenwood @faineg.com · 26/09/2026like I suspect many of you on This Website, I think a core reason why I find Eliezer Yudkowsky and his rationalist and effective altruist satellites so intensely annoying is because I had a VERY similar “being a super weird, pretentious, hyper-literate kid” experience - I just, you know, grew up. 532627265
Reposted by Giled PallaeonClaire Willett @clairewillett.bsky.social · 25/09/2026WHERE THE FUCK ARE “LOWER DECKS” AND “SHE-RA” 2643
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I would like to file a complaint about every time a piece of music becomes an earworm but only a piece of it. At the moment it’s the last fifty-five seconds of Drag Racer off the Ace Combat 7 soundtrack. 130
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 23/09/2026static.klipy.comTom Ellis as Lucifer: That's Literally ImpossibleALT: Tom Ellis as Lucifer: That's Literally Impossible 070
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 23/09/2026As a professional analytic wargamer, my reaction is best summarized as: 0130
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 23/09/2026It’s not even a truly meaningful dent. Less than 20% of CY25 US health spending would have been offset by the FY25 NDAA. Can this myth die please? www.aha.org/news/headlin...aha.orgCMS projects national health spending grew to $5.7 trillion in 2025 | AHA NewsNational health spending is projected to have reached $5.7 trillion in 2025, up 7.3% from 2024, according to an analysis by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services published June 24 by Health Aff... 030
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026This is not an especially great article imo. It spends half of its ink grinding the author’s political axe, and while on paper the suggestions are sensible on their face, the author makes a category error in his assessment of the state of naval warfare. 131
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Tiberium Wars is the one that comes to mind though really it shares the title with KOTOR 2131
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 19/09/2026This site has an interesting tendency for folks to make normative moral statements about what they wish was the case, which is fine on its own, then dogpile anyone who uses their expertise to explain why things are that way. And frankly it’s rather disappointing. 2170
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026[trots out rant about how we didn’t invent precision weapons to reduce harm, we invented them to improve effectiveness] 1230
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026The inability of the Discourse to understand multi-point agency is going to make this site insufferable during a U.S.-China contingency 1210
Reposted by Giled PallaeonShuffle @shuffleosint.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Also the little caveat at the bottom is golden. "Company Targets" 0122
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Your regularly scheduled reminder that the Cult of the Gizmo and their financiers, in this case a16z, are lying by omission *at least* to you. Sure an Anthem costs less than a Tomahawk. It’s 40% of the payload, and with what murderous cost to P-arrival? 8535
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Both U-123 and Hardegen were aces; under her three commanders U-123 was the fifth highest scoring U-boat of the war, and one of only three of the top ten to survive the war (all three were scuttled by war’s end; only U-123 was raised and returned to service.) 130
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Your regularly scheduled reminder that an unknowable but significant number of these sinkings were the direct fault of ADM King’s decision to not implement a convoy system in American waters “due to lack of escorts”, against British advice. 0162
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 12/09/2026TBH I have questions about practicality, because a lot of the advantages a SSN has don’t apply to Japan or only do in more limited ways than they do for us or the Aussies. 6371
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026The good news is that this is quite unlikely, albeit not impossible. This is significantly more likely in a China scenario and how that plays out in the information domain is likely to have an outsize impact on the conduct of the war and US will to fight. 1282
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026I like my current pinned post too much to replace it but I figure this will get used a good bit. If you think in the scheme of evils perpetrated by the U.S. in the 20th century (of which there is much) that Desert Storm, Allied Force, or Korea should be on the list, you are not a serious person. 0140
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026I’m in no rush to actually get rid of it, but Terraforming Mars is now fired as a default board game 020
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026U.S. policy had non-proliferation as somewhere between a top policy priority and The Top policy priority since World War II for a goddamn reason, and the end of the Cold War only *elevated* its relative importance. 1161
Reposted by Giled PallaeonGinn, Qui-Gon, and Juice @quigonginnandjuice.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Live counterproliferation reaction 0566
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Peer warfare is the art of creating logistics supply lines to where you want to be, and blowing up whatever would impede that. (This is a riff on someone else, @sodrock.bsky.social I think) 1242
Reposted by Giled PallaeonDr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 08/09/2026freedom is worth fighting for. 1175298
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 09/09/2026A close relative of “You don’t win wars by dying for your country. You win by making the other guy die for theirs.” As efficiently as possible is a bonus. 0245
Reposted by Giled PallaeonHellscape Navigator @hellscapenavigator.bsky.social · 08/09/2026"lets win this thing and go home" is the strongest fighting ethos known to mankind and will crush a martial death cult every single time 111015
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Wake up, babe. New automatic loss-of-vote association dropped. I’m dead serious, anti-vax is a permanent loss of my vote until serious and emphatic public contrition. The only exception is if the opponent also is. 170
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Everything that can be made can be unmade. The question is if it’s worth the hassle. There are bunkers in the Cape Canaveral complex built to take effectively direct hits from potential failed Saturn V launches. They’re abandoned today because in the 10-12’ of steel and concrete is asbestos. 2110
Reposted by Giled PallaeonGerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Honestly we don't really need wild guesses here, I think the answer is pretty simple--the mass firings of senior officers on charges of corruption is because... there is rampant corruption in the PLA. The degree and scale of corruption in the PLA has long been known to PLA watchers. Occam's razor. 11206
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Just for sense of scale, current U.S. Navy op tempo would be properly supported by a fleet of somewhere between fifteen and eighteen supercarriers. The fleet has eleven. “Ridden hard and put away wet” doesn’t begin to cover it. 512318
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026I see the arrival of LINCOLN in Thailand has kicked off a very predictable round of pearl-clutching at the exterior state of the ship. I want to be very clear. If your contention is that the ship’s company should never have endured over nine months at sea without a port call, carry on. 916614
Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026No. Russian naval equipment looks like this because it hasn’t been maintained. LINCOLN looks like this because she was at sea for 200 days straight and she was only doing functional maintenance, not pretty maintenance. 1161