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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Buy time for the Americans to arrive. (Another set of assumptions in that last clause, best saved for another time.)

Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

That means an invasion of Taiwan is almost certainly *from the PRC’s perspective not a war of choice.* Ergo we are no longer dealing with a rational actor who can be deterred, so Taiwanese nuclear weapons do not change the calculations. They simply draw funds from procurement that might…

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

That might resist, and the punishment a vengeful U.S. might impose on them. That’s the status quo, without Taiwanese nukes. If instead we assume the PRC has gone to war, the above assumptions have changed. They’ve already priced in horrible damage. They almost certainly will never do this willingly

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I don’t feel like repeating myself in every comment here so I’ll do it up at the top. This is almost certainly correct. To everyone trying to quote MAD here, MAD works with a rational actor. Right now, the PRC is a rational actor, deterred by the sheer scale of effort required to occupy a Taiwan…

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

This is why at this point I firmly of the belief the appropriate WMD/arms control shorthand for AI is bioweapons. These things are proving uncontrollable, unpredictable, and possessed of a nasty boomerang habit.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

They can. Will might take a minute if there haven’t been any stray collections because We Don’t Collect on A&P (so stray NSA grabs).

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Aren’t their identities secret? Seems rather ineffectual (which tbf never stopped him before)

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Roman Sheremeta @rshereme.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

“Russians changed my mind about russia.” An emotional video of a Canadian volunteer. Warring: there is profanity in the video.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Probably a scrub. An intelligent, literate scrub, but a scrub.

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John C @badsocialism.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I do find that many of my progressive and leftist friends are, in fact, kind of incapable of considering that my research on war doesn't mean I think it was fun

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

There are valid ways to be “too meritocratic”. I’m pretty sure none apply here.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This is correct. They sit in a CAPE-owned space and share it with both a CAPE element and a CDAO one.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

They still exist. Theres about a dozen of them last I peeked, including a couple military.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

If they’d let anyone see their work

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Meridian is, is a better idea than a scenario based one We will always struggle to predict the future but I have to wonder if we’ll be able to even attempt anticipating the range of capabilities we might need without a scenario set as a forcing function

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

As a separate note, based on the convo the other day I think we’re hurtling today what I’m tentatively calling the Contextual Age of Warfare, where every conflict’s conduct is dominated by its context. The question then becomes if a capability based model of acquisition, which is what Project…

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

They’re all unqualified. Gingrich doesn’t know a boot from a shoe, but Luckey thinks we need shovels for legs and Musk things the only future of stealth is Romulan cloaking devices. They’re all worthless. The cold comfort is that the Pentagon should easily bury whatever dipshit ideas they create.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I’m still more offended by Luckey and Musk than Gingrich. I’ll take harmless over brain-melted and owning important elements of the DIB (one of which probably needs to be nationalized)

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James @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I rather think Pete Hegseth is a bit of a disaster and should be impeached if I'm gonna be fr with you guys. othermeans.substack.com/p/the-weak-d...

othermeans.substack.com

The Weak Department

Send Me! (Somewhere I can get a Lobotomy)

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

That would be because it is for our current posture and expenditures, and that’s before the Iran fuckery.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

If we’re lucky it’s fifteen years

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The industrial base isn’t capable of doing this, and even if it was build timelines are ~8-10 years from first long lead procurement dollars.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I think you’re off base that it’s only most

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Cued off someone simulating RCS using open source (possibly AI backed) models. That is a response to a simulated top down view of a F-15 next to an F-117. Upstream of that is an X-band take where the F-117 practically vanishes.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Is there a reason to believe this will not extend to the M&S community, where some claim AI is already better at coding than humans? (For the record I’ve never seen this validated with specialized mil M&S.)

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Question: the professional wargaming community is rapidly slewing to the threats posed by AI to the discipline. The lesser challenge is maintaining traceability of events. The greater challenge is that many functions AI can easily replace are critical stepping stones to developing future designers.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’m completely certain I can pull together a team out of MilSky people and some personal friends who can make better recommendations than this clown show, and might even pull off some analysis instead of ghost writing a bunch of papers no one will read.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Ok, I’m also on board with “decisive victory in war among US and its peers (and a decent ways below that” is exceedingly unlikely. How does that have anything to do with the vulnerability and ineffectiveness against mobile targets of very long TOF?

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’m not suggesting Scud-hunting, that’s nuts. I’m saying hunt the trains carrying the things to depot by the thousand. (Or other appropriate logistical line of attack.) Affordable mass requires an iron mountain, the same damn thing we keep saying recon-strike complexes invalidate. Hit *that*.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’m clearly missing something because I’m totally lost on how long TOF is acceptable because the war is long.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

There are other platforms and capabilities that have demonstrated c-UAS effectiveness. I’ll also note depending on the ranges in question deep operational interdiction against the volume required to effectively employ massed UAS is also on the table.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Mmmmm, if you’re tactically inflexible sure

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The expansion of the option space so that part of it is within reach of new participants does not necessarily say anything about the high end

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Is India-China COW given the scale of ops vice targets?

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’m definitely bringing this up at work, which would be horrifying to you if you knew where ;)

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

And that an adversary can choose or be in a place where they cannot bend to you without breaking, which is where rapid delivery of unscheduled disassembly kicks in.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For example, (fifteen minutes into it) I’m failing to conceptualize a COW strategy that can protect US interests in East Asia, especially against highway strategies. However, there are other theaters where it’s much more applicable (eg AFRICOM)

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I think it (the cutting off way) describes “a” way to wage conflict, whereas there is, in my mind, a separate level of unlimited war, where drones are simply uncrewed and/or shitty cheap copies of something else

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Well that was fucking fascinating. I apparently also missed or memory-holed @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social’s Highway Theory, which is also annoyingly compelling.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Well this is a fascinating discussion of a completely different meta-way of war.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Is Project Meridian a bad idea that will end up risking billions in embezzlement and bad-faith contracts? Yes. Is Musk (along with Luckey and Gingrich(????)) in charge of the future of war? lol no

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Probably better put as “…the bar for **not** a dumbass is quite high” but I’m on hour 13 on the clock for a travel day, sue me.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Two reasons. You ID’d one in the next post. The other is you’re a dumbass. Defense id very hard, so the bar for dumbass is quite high, but this is run-of-the-mill scale stupid.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

We’ve used end-of-life aircraft as target drones and instrumentation aircraft for as long as it’s been practical to fit it in what was the cockpit. I don’t know what the Blackbird is for but I really doubt it’s gonna get automated.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Unfortunately, I can’t even “But Ackshually” this because it is explicitly a CCMD that also moonlights as a Service for the “equip” part of “man, train, equip”, a model famously successful when given no oversight.

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Giled Pallaeon @giledpallaeon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I clearly thought “How could this get dumber” too loudly. My b.

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