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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

2018: Beto O'Rourke (D) led in 1 Texas Senate poll through September 2026: James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 Talarico leads Ken Paxton (R) 47%-44% in DDHQ's polling average. The @texastribune.org's @gbirenbaum.bsky.social & DDHQ's @geoffreyskelley.com on why this race is different. #TXSen

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Alaska Senate Polling Average (DDHQ): 🟦 Mary Peltola: 50% 🟥 Dan Sullivan: 48% The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola just over a 3 in 5 shot of winning, making Alaska the Democrats' second-most likely Senate flip after North Carolina. #AKSen

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Not since 1992 has this much of Congress headed for the exits before an election. 100 members — 84 House, 16 Senate — have left or announced departures since January 2025. That's 18% of the 119th Congress.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Maine Senate 🟦 Troy Jackson (D): 47% 🟥 Susan Collins (R): 45% Jackson leads, but the DDHQ Forecast gives each candidate about a 1 in 2 shot. Collins has outrun her polling before. #MESen Read DDHQ's latest polling memo:

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

📈 Can Susan Collins outrun the polls in Maine again?

The Republican incumbent narrowly trails Democrat Troy Jackson in the Pine Tree State’s critical Senate contest

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

New Hampshire voters went to the polls on Tuesday, most notably for U.S. Senate and U.S. House primaries. In #NHSen, Rep. Chris Pappas easily won the Democratic primary over progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. Read our recap: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-hampsh...

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

❓What happened last night: Pappas and Sununu advance in New Hampshire’s Senate race

Reviewing the September 8 primary results in New Hampshire

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The DDHQ Forecast now has the U.S. Senate as a pure toss-up for the first time since early June. The average seat outcome across 1 million simulations remains a 50-50 tie, which would be a narrow win for Republicans thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

9 months ago, it seemed unlikely that the #NHSen Democratic primary might be closer than the GOP race. Yet Rep. Chris Pappas is a tad concerned about progressive Karishma Manzur. Meanwhile, ex-Sen. John Sununu is up 34 pts on ex-Sen. Scott Brown. DDHQ's primary preview has more.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

In DDHQ's polling memo, we zoom in on the #MTSen race. Plus, updates on presidential approval, the generic ballot & all the key races. In Montana's Senate race, Kurt Alme (R) leads a 3-way contest. In DDHQ's average, Alme has 44%, Seth Bodnar (Ind) 26% & Alani Bankhead (D) 21%. Read the memo:

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

📈 GOP holds big edge in Montana’s Senate race

Republican Kurt Alme leads three-way contest against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

On Tuesday, Massachusetts had more primary action than a big bowl of clam chowder! In #MASen, Sen. Ed Markey was unusual as an old progressive facing a younger moderate challenger in Rep. Seth Moulton. But Markey easily won 65%-35%. Read: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/massachuse...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The #MASen Democratic primary has turned the usual generational divide upside down. The old progressive (80-year old Sen. Ed Markey) holds a sizable lead over the younger moderate (47-year old Rep. Seth Moulton). Read DDHQ's MA preview: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/massachuse...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Last night, Trump-endorsed candidates went 2 for 2. In #SCSen, appointed Sen. Darline Graham won the GOP nomination. And in #OKGov, former state Sen. Mike Mazzei pulled off a slim victory. Read DDHQ's roundup of all the electoral action: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-endo...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

FL led the Aug. 18 primary schedule, but WY+AK also voted. Check out our roundup of the races. In #FLGov, Rep. Byron Donalds easily won the GOP primary. But in #FLSen, DSA state Rep. Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman. The GOP is favored in both. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/florida-do...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

David Crowley's win over Francesca Hong in the #WIGov Democratic primary came down to many factors: -Hong's rough national media tour -Gov. Tony Evers's support for Crowley -Progressive Kelda Roys's 3rd-place % -Some indy+GOP votes for Crowley Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/wisconsin-...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Decision Desk HQ has a roundup of all the primary action that happened this week. The headline race was the #MISen Democratic primary, narrowly won by Abdul El-Sayed. He won by keeping it close in the Detroit area & running up big margins in progressive counties.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Talarico is polling better vs. Paxton than Beto O'Rourke (D) ever did in his close 2018 defeat vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). #TXSen From April-July 2018, Cruz led every poll vs O'Rourke. But Paxton has only led 3 of 12 surveys in the same period of 2026. More: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/james-tala...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 27/07/2026

Underrated aspect of DNC's pres primary calendar: Virginia would go just before Super Tuesday. SC voted 3 days before ST in 2020 & greatly influenced it. VA would go by itself a week before. VA has been establishment-friendly: Clinton & Biden both handily beat Sanders.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

DDHQ's newsletter looks at the Democrats' 2028 pres primary calendar. What will New Hampshire do? Right now, NH primary would probably be Jan. 11 — 11 days before SC Dems vote. As in 2024, NH Dems might use a party-run event to comply w/ DNC. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

In #AZ04, Rep. Greg Stanton (D) fended off a left-wing primary challenger, Kai Newkirk, who tried to harness the recent energy in Democratic primaries for more progressive/socialist candidates. Read more about what happened in Arizona last night: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/arizona-ju...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Which Senate seats will matter most in 2026? Our new election forecast provides answers. GOP has about a 3 in 5 shot at a majority. Dems must win at least 7 of 10 key seats for majority, while GOP only needs 4 for 50-50 split (VP Vance would break ties). decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-elect...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Maine Democrats and South Carolina Republicans suddenly must choose new nominees in their U.S. Senate race. How do their situations compare with past replacements? Since 1950, there are now 31 cases where a party substituted a nominee for Senate/governor. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-sub...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with @bangordailynews.bsky.social politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

A source told @bangordailynews.bsky.social that another negative Platner story could come out soon. #MESen In today's newsletter, DDHQ noted that Collins's numbers have already trended upward in the last month. She went from trailing Platner by ~5 pts to leading by 1 in DDHQ's average.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 05/07/2026

This is just like when FIFA arbitrarily lifted Ronaldo's red card suspension except it makes the team better

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

What happened last night? DDHQ has a roundup of all the big results in Colorado. The top story: The Left kept up its momentum in Colorado's 1st, where democratic socialist Melat Kiros ousted Rep. Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary. Read more:

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

❓What happened last night: DSA-backed Kiros beats DeGette, Weiser beats sitting senator Bennet for governor

A look at the June 30 primary results in Colorado

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

This week's DDHQ Podcast was a listener mailbag! Check out the link in the replies. How long could it take some states to count their votes in November? There's a scenario in which Senate control rests on the outcome in Alaska, but it takes days to know the result.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

New York has a ton of interesting Democratic primaries tomorrow. For DDHQ's newsletter, @kaleighrogers.bsky.social examined how crowded races may affect Democrats' chances in key seats. One is #NY17, held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R), a 50%-50% seat in 2024. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/midterm-cr...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

This week's DDHQ Podcast talked with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social about 4 NYC primaries that could tell us much about Democrats' 2028 conflicts. (link below) AI is key in #NY12, where Alex Bores is getting attacked by an @OpenAI-backed super PAC & supported by an @AnthropicAI-backed one!

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

DDHQ has a roundup of what happened in the most important primaries and runoffs yesterday. (See link below) In Georgia's GOP runoff for Senate, Rick Jackson defeated Burt Jones 53%-47%. Jones is the 2nd Trump-endorsed gov candidate to lose in June (Feenstra in Iowa).

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

It's another busy primary day in America! DDHQ has a rundown of the biggest races to watch tonight. #DC Democrats look set to pick between Janeese Lewis George and Kenyan McDuffie. Neither candidate will probably win 50%+ outright, so the race will likely be decided by ranked-choice voting.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Some lunchtime reading: DDHQ previews key June 16 races in GA, AL, OK & DC. (Link below) One biggie is the GOP runoff for #GASen, which will decide who faces Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in November. Rep. Mike Collins looks to be ahead, but a late poll found fmr football coach Derek Dooley not far behind.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 10/06/2026

Valadao is now at 41% in the top-two primary results, which is an extremely bad sign for the GOP in this seat. If Valadao won after this, it would be the lowest % for a winning incumbent party in a top-two congressional primary in CA (since 2012) or WA (since 2008).

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Decision Desk HQ dug into the big June 9 primary results: In #MESen Democratic primary, Graham Platner won with 72%. That share did not differ much from the 76% he garnered in a late May poll by UNH that predated his latest scandals. Read our roundup: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/june-9-pri...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Decision Desk HQ has all the details about key primaries happening today in ME, SC, ND & NV. Find the link below for our preview. A big one is the #SCGov GOP primary. Trump endorsed Evette but polls show a complete jumble headed for a runoff. But which 2 contenders will advance?

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Decision Desk HQ breaks down what to watch in the June 9 primaries. Find the link below. In Maine, will Graham Platner's (D) many controversies weaken his primary showing, foreshadowing future trouble? He leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 48%-44% in DDHQ's polling average.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

In the much-watched Los Angeles mayoral primary, incumbent Karen Bass is projected to advance. TBD on who will join her in November, though Spencer Pratt looks most likely. Link below for Decision Desk HQ's roundup of yesterday's primary elections around the country.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

What happened last night in Louisiana's GOP primary for Senate? The Mardi Gras Lady sang for Sen. Bill Cassidy. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led with 45% & Treasurer John Fleming grabbed 2nd with 28%. Cassidy only got 25%. Letlow & Fleming now go to a June 27 runoff.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Dan Osborn (Ind) is running for #NESen again. To win, he must improve on 2024, when he lost by 7 points while Kamala Harris lost by 21. Osborn got close by running farther ahead of Harris outside Omaha+Lincoln. Take this Falls City precinct in southeast NE: Trump+37 / Osborn+1!

A map of precinct votes in Falls City, Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn ran far ahead of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in Nebraska's Senate race.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

In yesterday's Nebraska primary, Dan Osborn & Democrats got what they wanted in the Senate race. Pro-Osborn candidates won the Democratic & Legalize Marijuana Now primaries. If they withdraw, Osborn will face Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in a one-on-one clash that could help decide control of the Senate.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Democrats need to win 7 of 11 key races to win Senate majority in 2026. Right now, they lead 2 with substantial polling, up in 3 others with limited data. Vibes & prediction markets: Democrats are even money to win the Senate Reality: GOP is still favored (at least for now)

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Democrats' Senate vibes are soaring. But today's DDHQ newsletter provides a reality check: Republicans are still somewhat favored to hold onto the Senate.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Democrats are still underdogs in the Senate

Vibes are getting ahead of reality when it comes to rating the Democrats' chances of capturing the Senate

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Tomorrow is Election Day in Virginia. The Decision Desk HQ Podcast dove into the redistricting vote with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social from @statenavigate.org. He noted how No can win if independents break for it, combined with solid Election Day turnout. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/podcast-vi...

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

New from DDHQ: We spoke with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social of @statenavigate.org about Virginia's redistricting referendum. The YES side looks somewhat favored, but Chaz laid out what needs to happen for the NO campaign to win. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/podcast-vi...

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Maine Democrats seem increasingly likely to pick progressive Graham Platner over Gov. Janet Mills in #MESen vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R). Mills would be the 1st sitting governor to lose a Senate primary since 1986. More in this week's DDHQ polling memo: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/maine-sena...

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Maine Democrats look to outsider instead of a sitting governor in key Senate race

Graham Platner leads Gov. Janet Mills in Maine's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, with the winner set to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 08/04/2026

In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won by 20 points, the largest margin for a liberal candidate over the past two decades. She was helped by Democratic enthusiasm but also lower turnout among Republicans, as suggested by lower turnout vs. 2023-25. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

DDHQ's weekly newsletter looks at why a woman could win the 2028 presidential election. Yes, women lost in 2016 and 2024, but that's a sample size of 2. There's more to consider, including candidate qualities and fundamentals like economic conditions + presidential approval.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

♂️♀️A woman could definitely win the 2028 election

Democrats (and Republicans) don't necessarily need a man as a standard-bearer to claim the White House.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

On this week's DDHQ Podcast, @erincovey.bsky.social from @cookpolitical.com joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races. Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Some lunchtime reading! This week's DDHQ newsletter looked at: -Democratic-held seats the GOP can target in its effort to keep the House -Republican-held seats Dems hope to flip if 2026 turns into a blue wave year Read the newsletter here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

This week's DDHQ newsletter: -Which blue seats could the GOP flip to keep the House? Best targets are in red states that redistricted. -Which red seats could Democrats flip to make a blue wave happen? Some Trump-won, medium-red seats could be in play in 2026.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

🛟🌊How Republicans hold the House & how Democrats achieve a blue wave

Part three of a three-part series breaking down the U.S. House situation and which seats look likeliest to decide the majority in November

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 16/03/2026

And here's some AI slop from "Affordable Chicago Now" and "Chicago Progressive Partnership." I wrote about the role of AIPAC in these 4 Democratic primaries for Chicagoland U.S. House seats. I also dug into the #ILSen primary! Check it out: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-illin...

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