iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 27/07/2026

Underrated aspect of DNC's pres primary calendar: Virginia would go just before Super Tuesday. SC voted 3 days before ST in 2020 & greatly influenced it. VA would go by itself a week before. VA has been establishment-friendly: Clinton & Biden both handily beat Sanders.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 10/06/2026

Valadao is now at 41% in the top-two primary results, which is an extremely bad sign for the GOP in this seat. If Valadao won after this, it would be the lowest % for a winning incumbent party in a top-two congressional primary in CA (since 2012) or WA (since 2008).

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 08/04/2026

In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won by 20 points, the largest margin for a liberal candidate over the past two decades. She was helped by Democratic enthusiasm but also lower turnout among Republicans, as suggested by lower turnout vs. 2023-25. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 16/03/2026

And here's some AI slop from "Affordable Chicago Now" and "Chicago Progressive Partnership." I wrote about the role of AIPAC in these 4 Democratic primaries for Chicagoland U.S. House seats. I also dug into the #ILSen primary! Check it out: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-illin...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 16/03/2026

Some of the AIPAC-connected groups spending in #IL02, #IL07, #IL08 & #IL09 have the junkiest websites and logos. Elect Chicago Women is especially funny. Its homepage looks like this. Yeah, there's a logo there, but we have to zoom in to see it. "My passion is graphic design."

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 30/07/2025

New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning: -Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas -Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33 -Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 18/06/2025

Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 12/05/2025

Most Congressional Republicans have pledged not to raise taxes, but some are considering a tax hike for their own budget deal. 85% have signed Americans for Tax Reform's no-tax pledge, down from 95% after the 2010 Tea Party election. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/in-a-world...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 28/04/2025

Are Canadians supposed to write in Trump’s name in every riding or something?

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 22/04/2025

nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/on-this-el...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 15/04/2025

My latest post on Substack: What Wisconsin's election might say about what's to come in 2025 and 2026. Turnout practically mirrored a midterm, and trended higher in left-leaning places. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/what-wisco...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 15/03/2025

Sometimes headline writers are just tired and figure, hey whatever. (From p. 4 of the Sept. 11, 1976, edition of the Deseret News.)

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 04/02/2025

Shocked, SHOCKED that Senate Republicans are finding their way to yes on all of Trump's Cabinet nominees. abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-c...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · 04/07/2023

Sounds like Darren Bailey is going to challenge to Rep. Mike Bost in the IL-12 GOP primary. This map gives some geographical reasoning for Bailey’s decision. www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cam…

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