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Gregory Brew

@gbrew24.bsky.social
5.1K followers 718 following 189 posts

Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.

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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eliza Barclay @elizabarclay.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
"In just two months, the United States has transformed from a bulwark of the international energy system into its biggest source of insecurity." @gbrew24.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
The Carter Doctrine is gone, Hormuz is shut, OPEC is falling apart. The global oil economy is entering a new period of instability. And it's because of US action (or inaction). The consequences will be profound. My latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about Trump killing the Carter Doctrine and how to think about the political contours of the Iran War on *all* sides of the conflict and how they constrain our path forward. open.spotify.com/episode/4TcG...
open.spotify.com
An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
I'm going to do more to post here, y'all, and not just the other place. I am constrained somewhat by limited mental ability--in my advanced age, it's really only feasible for me to be glued to one platform at a time. But I shall do my best.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
ICYMI my latest on Trump's Russia sanctions. Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week. But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home. I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week. But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home. I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Among other takeaways, confirms that Israel did, in fact, attempt to assassinate Iran's key civilian and military leadership. By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
nytimes.com
Targeting Iran’s Leaders, Israel Found a Weak Link: Their Bodyguards
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
"The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela." Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
axios.com
Inside Trump's gunboat diplomacy with Venezuela
"It's the president's decision about what to do next, but Maduro should be s***ting bricks," an adviser said.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again." However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
politico.com
‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy
Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Europeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources say
Britain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Chirag Lala @cthelala.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment. I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Trump seems committed to increasing electricity prices by any means necessary. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/c...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Orders Work Halted on Wind Farm That Is Nearly Built
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
My chat with @roryjohnston.bsky.social on tariffs, Russia, the sanctioned oil market, and deciphering Trump's approach to the oil market. Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
open.spotify.com
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about: - Indian secondary tariff risks - US-India trade relations - Alternative outlets for Russian oil - the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market LISTEN: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
open.spotify.com
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Washington Struggles to Rein In an Emboldened Israel
The Trump administration has expressed frustration with Israeli actions in recent days.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/w...
nytimes.com
No Proof Hamas Routinely Stole U.N. Aid, Israeli Military Officials Say
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted: Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
"Israel would have been overwhelmed" is burying the lede. Israel was conducting a limited war. If air defenses got close to collapse, Israel would have escalated to force Tehran into standing down. Critical infra and/or more extensive targeting of leadership come to mind.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran. Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions. What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions. What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
0227
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk. Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid. Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
www.axios.com/2025/06/21/t...
axios.com
Scoop: Trump's backchannel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark
Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan quietly sought to arrange a U.S.-Iran meeting in Istanbul.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey. He even contemplated going himself. But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran. Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history. Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Khamenei has instructed the Assembly of Experts to prepare a list of three successors, should he be slain. Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
nytimes.com
Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Thanks, I'm very active on the other place but I'll try to post here as well.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
I don't find the theory that Iran is just stringing talks along, as an end in itself, to be very persuasive. True, anything that allows them to avoid an attack, as well as snapback, is worthwhile. But Pezeshkian et al have silenced the hawks on the basis of promising a deal.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Also relevant: comments, most notably from Qalibaf, that US has presented nothing on sanctions relief. Need to bear this in mind: for Iran, obtaining relief is the primary reason for these negots. Avoiding escalation is naturally a strong incentive, but not the main driver.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
TBC, this probably won't go anywhere, but it speaks to where we are in the negotiations. US put forward some ideas, Iran will do the same. Eventually, ground for compromise will emerge. Or not, and talks break down, and escalatory risk grows.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Iran is also reportedly preparing a counter to the US consortium idea that includes declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone. Further negot maneuvers: Iran's position will be that zero enrichment must be reciprocated by de-nuclearization of Israel.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
These docs may end up being insubstantial, but Iran is likely to use them to draw attention away from its own nuclear obfuscations, in the context of a likely IAEA censure resolution, while also trying to drive a larger wedge between Arab states and Israel. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...
english.alarabiya.net
Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Iran should be unveiled soon, minister says
Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Tehran should be unveiled soon, Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib told state TV on Sunday, describing them as
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 21/05/2025
Israel is unlikely to attack Iran independently because of its reliance on US assistance. Our experts Firas Maksad and @gbrew24.bsky.social say that recent policy moves and personnel changes suggest the US preference for diplomacy over force has strengthened.
bloomberg.com
Sputtering Iran-US Talks Revive Specter of Israeli Solo Strike
A US media outlet reports that Israel may be poised to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and oil markets wince. In Washington, a Republican administration wonders if Tehran is more determined or deterred.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Need to mention this every time the topic comes up: Israel cannot meaningfully damage Iran's nuclear program alone. It cannot mount a wholly effective air defense without US assistance. Netanyahu knows this.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Second theme of the piece: Trump's shifting position. He indicated he was prepared to bomb if talks did not produce progress within weeks. That has apparently subsided. His team has adopted zero enrichment but there are currently no proposals on the table from either side.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal'...The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us...both publicly and privately.” Suggests an enormous appetite for risk on Israel's part
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
True, there's also a message to Israel here--and the odds of Netanyahu clearing an attack on Iran without US cooperation and coordination appear slim. Still, this serves to support Trump's credible military threat, which has receded somewhat in recent weeks.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
CNN report is heavily conditioned but the message (delivered by US sources) is pretty clear. Israel is poised to strike Iran. Whether it does or not is framed around the outcome of US-Iran talks. www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/p...
cnn.com
New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics
The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehra...
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Even JCPOA left many relevant issues unanswered, and produced a status quo which neither side found wholly satisfactory (recall the amount of criticism re: Rouhani's promises). The fact that it has few high-profile public defenders in the US is revealing.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
FWIW a lot of analysis presumes a deal or a war are the only possible outcomes from the current US-Iran talks. But if history is any guide, we're much more likely to see something in the middle; an accord that allows both sides to avoid war but delivers little resolution.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Relevant passage here:
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Rubio (who is by all appearances closer to this file than he was a few months ago) is careful in his language re: Iran. He states (accurately) that enrichment could potentially be used to produce material for a weapon. But he doesn't commit the US to zero enrichment. www.cbsnews.com/news/marco-r...
cbsnews.com
Transcript: Secretary of State Marco Rubio on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 18, 2025
The following is the transcript of an interview with Secretary of State Marco Rubio that will air on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on May 18, 2025.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.
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