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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025

A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025

A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted: Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran. Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/06/2025

🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey. He even contemplated going himself. But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Araghchi in an interview with Iran Newspaper: "If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

As @liamdenning.bsky.social illustrates, the security argument for oil/gas leaves out the disruptive role the US now plays (and, tbh, has played in the past). On cost, arguably the most important element in assessing security, renewables are hardly negligible. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Mike Dimino, the new top MENA official at the Pentagon, has long been critical of US policy in the region--including regime change ambitions in Iran. t.co/rxh4wl3CpP

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Another trip around the globe means another sweater.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Digesting the fall of Assad: cautious optimism among the opposition, growing talk of going nuclear among hardliners, and a general acknowledgment that the Islamic Republic hasn't looked this weak in years.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

This would also explain Zarif's choice of words when discussing a new nuclear deal. "Mutually beneficial investment measures" calls to mind recent reports of MBS offering Iran increased trade and investment, in exchange for pulling back its support for regional proxies.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Outside of resetting with US, Zarif notes the effort being made at solidifying Iran's relations with Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Zarif points to Palestine as a unifying factor, but better to characterize it as a wedge keeping the Gulf, and esp. KSA, from embracing Israel.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Israeli troops have occupied a strip of territory in Lebanon. Per the ceasefire agreement, IDF will withdraw once Lebanon's military is ready to ensure the ceasefire conditions. Until then, Israeli troops will stay. Lebanese civilians are discouraged from returning.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

The Israeli govt and hostage families are pinning all their hopes on Trump coming in and delivering a deal after months of Biden failing to do so. Trump, incidentally, was under the impression that all the hostages were dead.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Bessent got the job at Treasury by advising Trump on three areas (budget, regulations, oil) over which Treasury has no authority.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Arguing with my chair for one more year of Phd funding as the market posts 2-3 jobs in my sub-field.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Debates from the Georgetown History Dept c. 2014 are finally becoming official SW canon. @afinnmac.bsky.social

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Ali Larijani, a relatively moderate Khamenei advisor and Pezeshkian ally, has suggested a "new nuclear deal" with the US, with a pledge not to build weapons in exchange for retaining Iran's enrichment capabilities. This deal would replace the largely defunct JCPOA.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Interesting aside in JPOST story on Israel preparing for striking Iran nuclear facilities, for which it will need US help: Israel has been lobbying hard behind the scenes to get snapback to happen before October. FYI this depends on Germany, France, and the UK.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

I was raised in these streets

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

First of all, a glance at the data shows that while Iran's exports did, in fact, fall significantly once sanctions were formally reimposed in 2019 (following a period where main importers received waivers), Iran was still able to export approx. 500k bpd.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Happy Landman Premiere Day to all who celebrate.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Why does Bill Evans look AI-generated?

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Beginning to think that nobody knows what's going on.

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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 03/07/2023

Reconnecting with my Twitter mutuals.

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