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Gregory Brew

@gbrew24.bsky.social
5.1K followers 718 following 189 posts

Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.

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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eliza Barclay @elizabarclay.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
"In just two months, the United States has transformed from a bulwark of the international energy system into its biggest source of insecurity." @gbrew24.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
The Carter Doctrine is gone, Hormuz is shut, OPEC is falling apart. The global oil economy is entering a new period of instability. And it's because of US action (or inaction). The consequences will be profound. My latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about Trump killing the Carter Doctrine and how to think about the political contours of the Iran War on *all* sides of the conflict and how they constrain our path forward. open.spotify.com/episode/4TcG...
open.spotify.com
An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
I'm going to do more to post here, y'all, and not just the other place. I am constrained somewhat by limited mental ability--in my advanced age, it's really only feasible for me to be glued to one platform at a time. But I shall do my best.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
ICYMI my latest on Trump's Russia sanctions. Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week. But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home. I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week. But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home. I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...
youtube.com
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief
YouTube video by GZERO Media
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Among other takeaways, confirms that Israel did, in fact, attempt to assassinate Iran's key civilian and military leadership. By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...
nytimes.com
Targeting Iran’s Leaders, Israel Found a Weak Link: Their Bodyguards
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
"The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela." Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...
axios.com
Inside Trump's gunboat diplomacy with Venezuela
"It's the president's decision about what to do next, but Maduro should be s***ting bricks," an adviser said.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again." However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
politico.com
‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy
Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Europeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources say
Britain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Chirag Lala @cthelala.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment. I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Trump seems committed to increasing electricity prices by any means necessary. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/c...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Orders Work Halted on Wind Farm That Is Nearly Built
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
My chat with @roryjohnston.bsky.social on tariffs, Russia, the sanctioned oil market, and deciphering Trump's approach to the oil market. Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
open.spotify.com
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about: - Indian secondary tariff risks - US-India trade relations - Alternative outlets for Russian oil - the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market LISTEN: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...
open.spotify.com
Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Oil Ground Up · Episode
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted: Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran. Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions. What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions. What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work
Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk. Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid. Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey. He even contemplated going himself. But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran. Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history. Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Khamenei has instructed the Assembly of Experts to prepare a list of three successors, should he be slain. Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...
nytimes.com
Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Thanks, I'm very active on the other place but I'll try to post here as well.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
These docs may end up being insubstantial, but Iran is likely to use them to draw attention away from its own nuclear obfuscations, in the context of a likely IAEA censure resolution, while also trying to drive a larger wedge between Arab states and Israel. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...
english.alarabiya.net
Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Iran should be unveiled soon, minister says
Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Tehran should be unveiled soon, Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib told state TV on Sunday, describing them as
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 21/05/2025
Israel is unlikely to attack Iran independently because of its reliance on US assistance. Our experts Firas Maksad and @gbrew24.bsky.social say that recent policy moves and personnel changes suggest the US preference for diplomacy over force has strengthened.
bloomberg.com
Sputtering Iran-US Talks Revive Specter of Israeli Solo Strike
A US media outlet reports that Israel may be poised to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and oil markets wince. In Washington, a Republican administration wonders if Tehran is more determined or deterred.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Need to mention this every time the topic comes up: Israel cannot meaningfully damage Iran's nuclear program alone. It cannot mount a wholly effective air defense without US assistance. Netanyahu knows this.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
CNN report is heavily conditioned but the message (delivered by US sources) is pretty clear. Israel is poised to strike Iran. Whether it does or not is framed around the outcome of US-Iran talks. www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/p...
cnn.com
New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics
The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehra...
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
FWIW a lot of analysis presumes a deal or a war are the only possible outcomes from the current US-Iran talks. But if history is any guide, we're much more likely to see something in the middle; an accord that allows both sides to avoid war but delivers little resolution.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Rubio (who is by all appearances closer to this file than he was a few months ago) is careful in his language re: Iran. He states (accurately) that enrichment could potentially be used to produce material for a weapon. But he doesn't commit the US to zero enrichment. www.cbsnews.com/news/marco-r...
cbsnews.com
Transcript: Secretary of State Marco Rubio on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 18, 2025
The following is the transcript of an interview with Secretary of State Marco Rubio that will air on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on May 18, 2025.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
"Companies have made strides in how efficiently they drill and frack wells...But much of the improvement has now played out, and there is only so much firms can do to wring more crude from the aging shale fields." www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
U.S. Drillers Say Peak Shale Has Arrived
Lower oil prices are expected to precipitate a decrease in crude output that won’t easily be reversed.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 08/05/2025
Our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says that US airstrikes alone weren’t necessarily what caused the Houthis to stop their attacks. Tehran reportedly pushed the Houthis toward the US pact, which is a positive sign for US-Iran relations. @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
Trump-Houthi pact boosts US-Iran talks
President Donald Trump said this week the US campaign against the Houthis is done for now. The move gives a boost to US-Iran talks, but raises questions over the US president’s support for Israel.
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 16/05/2025
While a full-scale deal like the 2015 deal appears unlikely, our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says the US and Iran are both showing interest in a limited “mini deal” that reduces tensions and creates more space for diplomacy. @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
US and Iran near mini-deal
US and Iran edge toward “mini-deal” on nukesUS President Donald Trump said Thursday that the US and Iran have “sort of” agreed on terms for a nuclear deal, one day after a top Iranian adviser said Teh...
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Agree with @gbrew24.bsky.social here: "Witkoff's apparent retreat makes it more difficult for Trump to make diplomatic progress, as public statements indicating the US position is zero enrichment tie him to a hardline position from which it will be difficult to retreat." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Witkoff in Apparent Reversal Says Iran Must Halt Nuclear Enrichment
A day after he said Iran could continue low-level enrichment, President Trump’s envoy appeared to backtrack..
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Stinson Dean @lumber.trading · 30/04/2025
Has the US economy ever been more vulnerable? (h/t @gbrew24.bsky.social ) www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Saudi Arabia signals it can live with lower oil prices, sources say
Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
More sanctions. More of the same. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
Treasury Sanctions Iranian Oil Minister, Shadow Fleet Operators
WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating Iran’s Minister of Petroleum, Mohsen Paknejad, who oversees the export of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil and has allocated billions of dollars’ worth of oil to Iran’s armed forces for export. OFAC is also designating several entities in multiple jurisdictions, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, for their ownership or operation of vessels that have delivered Iranian oil to the PRC, or lifted Iranian oil from storage in Dalian, PRC. Today’s sanctions apply further pressure on the “shadow fleet” and other vessels upon which Iran depends to deliver its oil to the PRC, advancing United States’ commitment to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero.“The Iranian regime continues to use the proceeds from the nation’s vast oil resources to advance its narrow, alarming self-interests at the expense of the Iranian people,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “Treasury will fight and disrupt any attempts by the regime to fund its destabilizing activities and further its dangerous agenda.”Today’s action is being taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13902, which target Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors, and marks the third round of sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales since the President issued National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 on February 4, 2025, ordering a campaign of maximum pressure on Iran. Concurrently, the State Department is designating three entities pursuant to E.O. 13846 and identifying three vessels as blocked property in which these entities have an interest.Iran’s MINISTER OF PETROLEUMMohsen Paknejad (Paknejad) serves as Iran’s Minister of Petroleum and has overseen the Ministry of Petroleum since his appointment in August 2024. Iran’s Minister of Petroleum oversees Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and is responsible for all aspects of Iran’s oil industry, which generates tens of billions of dollars annually for the regime. Under his leadership, Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum has allocated billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil to the Iranian armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian Law Enforcement Forces, both critical instruments in the regime’s tools of oppression. Some 200,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil are allocated to the Iranian armed forces daily to supplement their budget. The armed forces’ annual allocation of Iranian oil is set to increase. Recent budget estimates point to a four-fold dollar increase in oil allocations, exceeding 10 billion dollars annually and totaling over 500,000 barrels per day. By the end of 2025, over half of Iran’s total oil revenues will be allocated to its armed forces. Paknejad is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy. Shadow FLEET OIL SHIPMENTSIran’s Ministry of Petroleum and the Iranian armed forces rely on a vast shadow fleet of vessels to disguise oil shipments worth billions of dollars for delivery to the PRC. Hong Kong-flagged PEACE HILL (IMO: 9288019) has transported millions of barrels of Iranian oil from the Changxhing Port in Dalian, PRC on behalf of the Iranian military. Since early 2024, San Marino-flagged SEASKY (IMO: 9237412) has transported tens of thousands of metric tons of fuel oil on behalf of NIOC to the PRC. Panama-flagged CORONA FUN (IMO: 9276573) has also transported Iranian oil and has used automatic identification system (AIS) manipulation to disguise its efforts to ship Iranian crude oil. Hong Kong-based Hong Kong Heshun Transportation Trading Limited is the owner and operator of the PEACE HILL. Hong Kong-based Seasky Marine Co., Limited is the owner, operator, and manager of the SEASKY. Hong Kong-based Sun Science International Co., Limited is the owner, operator, and manager of the CORONA FUN.Hong Kong Heshun Transportation Trading Limited, Seasky Marine Co., Limited, and Sun Science International Co., Limited are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy. PEACE HILL is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Hong Kong Heshun Transportation Trading Limited has an interest. The SEASKY is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Seasky Marine Co., Limited has an interest. CORONA FUN is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Sun Science International Co., Limited has an interest.Iran-flagged POLARIS 1 (IMO: 9272694) has transported tens of thousands of metric tons of NIOC fuel oil. The Cameroon-flagged LEXI (IMO: 9203277) has engaged in ship-to-ship transfers to transport millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil.Seychelles-registered Fallon Shipping Company Limited and Bangladesh-based Aren Ship Management serve as the owner and technical manager of the POLARIS 1, respectively. Fallon Shipping Company Limited and Aren Ship Management are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy. POLARIS 1 is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Fallon Shipping Company Limited has an interest. Suriname-based Sea Services Providers NV serves as the owner and operator of the LEXI. Sea Services Providers NV is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy LEXI is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Sea Services Providers NV has an interest.In addition, Comoros-flagged ITAUGUA (IMO: 9102277), Panama-flagged NESO (IMO: 9257149), Palau-flagged LYDYA N (IMO: 9153525) and BLUE GULF (IMO: 9328716), and Barbados-flagged SHANNON II (IMO: 9237797)have also shipped Iranian oil. Liberia-registered Itaugua Services Inc serves as the owner and operator of the ITAUGUA. Marshall Islands-registered Neptune Marine Ltd and PRC-based Huaxia Trading Ltdserve as the owner and manager of the NESO, respectively. Seychelles-registered Turquoise Sea Marine Limited serves as the registered owner of the LYDYA N. Marshall Islands-based United Tankers Ltd and India-based Lake View Ship Management Private Limited serve as the owner and manager of the BLUE GULF, respectively. Marshall Islands-registered Celestite Maritime Inc and Sri Lanka-based Marine Solution Pvt Ltd serve as the registered owner and technical manager of the SHANNON II, respectively. Itaugua Services Inc, Neptune Marine Ltd, Huaxia Trading Ltd, Turquoise Sea Marine Limited, United Tankers Ltd, Lake View Ship Management Private Limited, Celestite Maritime Inc, and Marine Solution Pvt Ltd, are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy. ITAUGUA is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Itaugua Services Inc has an interest. NESO is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Neptune Marine Ltd has an interest. LYDYA N is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Turquoise Sea Marine Limited has an interest. BLUE GULF is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which United Tankers Ltd has an interest. SHANNON II is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as blocked property in which Celestite Maritime Inc has an interest.STATE DEPARTMENT DESIGNATIONSThe U.S. Department of State is designating three entities and is identifying three vessels as blocked property in which these entities have an interest. Singapore-based Shipload Maritime PTE. LTD., and Indonesia-based PT. Bintang Samudra Utama and PT. Gianira Adhinusa Senatama are being designated pursuant to E.O 13846 for having knowingly engaged in a significant transaction for the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum or petroleum products from Iran.  The Indonesia-flagged Malili (IMO: 9179921) is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13846 as property in which Shipload Maritime PTE. LTD. has an interest. The Indonesia-flagged CELEBES (IMO: 8710730) is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13846 as property in PT. Bintang Samudra Utama has an interest. The Indonesia-flagged Marina Vision (IMO: 8106109) is being identified pursuant to E.O. 13846 as property in which PT. Gianira Adhinusa Senatama has an interest. SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONSAs a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the designated persons described above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC or exempt, U.S. sanctions generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons.Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations on a strict liability basis. OFAC’s Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines  provide more information regarding OFAC’s enforcement of U.S. economic sanctions. In addition, financial institutions and other persons may risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities with designated or otherwise blocked persons.The power and integrity of OFAC sanctions derive not only from OFAC’s ability to designate and add persons to the SDN List, but also from its willingness to remove persons from the SDN List consistent with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behavior. For information concerning the process for seeking removal from an OFAC list, including the SDN List, please refer to OFAC’s Frequently Asked Question 897 here and to submit a request for removal, click here.View identifying information on the individuals and entities designated today.###
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Araghchi in an interview with Iran Newspaper: "If Iran agrees to negotiate while under pressure, this would prejudice its position. "It must be proven...that pressure is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Don't sleep on LPGs (aka NGLs) as the secret sauce in US energy production and export expansion. Nice coverage of butane today from the EIA. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
U.S. butane exports reached a new record in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
As @liamdenning.bsky.social illustrates, the security argument for oil/gas leaves out the disruptive role the US now plays (and, tbh, has played in the past). On cost, arguably the most important element in assessing security, renewables are hardly negligible. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
The other place is down (maybe forever?) so shifting my focus here. I have a small brain, can only do one of these places at a time.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
What's interesting about this pitch from Bessent: he frames US control over Ukraine's resources as an investment in Ukraine's security. But that's not how it would work--it would be US companies, private actors. The US would be under no obligation. www.ft.com/content/91a7...
ft.com
Economic partnership will protect the Ukrainian people and the US taxpayer
Trump’s bold international leadership aligns interests and benefits all
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
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Reposted by Gregory Brew
Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/01/2025
Iran has been weakened – but our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says it’s not powerless. Tehran’s recent large-scale military exercises were designed to send a clear message: if you come at us, there will be consequences. @jchaltiwanger.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com
How Weakened Is Iran, Actually?
Iran and its proxies have been devastated, but the Trump administration still has much to consider in its policy toward Tehran.
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Gregory Brew @gbrew24.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Mike Dimino, the new top MENA official at the Pentagon, has long been critical of US policy in the region--including regime change ambitions in Iran. t.co/rxh4wl3CpP
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