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Gates Dupont

@gates.bsky.social
1.8K followers 2.6K following 39 posts

PhD Candidate 📚 Princeton University 🐅 Ecology & Evolutionary Biology 🦋 Patterns & processes of macro scale biodiversity loss 🪺🪹

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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
New article on my Substack!
open.substack.com
How large are jaguar populations in the Amazon?
The first standardized density estimates across the Amazon's protected areas, and what they tell us about the status of the species.
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Universitat de València-UV @uv.es · 22/04/2026
Crustacis menuts en els dofins llistats revelen l’impacte d’epidèmies sobre la població d’aquesta espècie mediterrània 🐬 @ten-seas.bsky.social  @gates.bsky.social  @andy2dobson.bsky.social  🔗ℹ️
ir.uv.es
Crustacis menuts en els dofins llistats revelen l’impacte d’epidèmies sobre la població d’aquesta espècie mediterrània
Un estudi liderat per la Universitat de València, en col·laboració amb científics de la Universitat de Princeton, mostra que els epibionts —xicotets organismes que viuen sobre la pell dels dofins— poden ajudar a detectar canvis en les poblacions...
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Princeton University @princeton.edu · 18/12/2025
"We need to meet the scale at which humanity is disrupting or disturbing the environment." Princeton's @gates.bsky.social led a new study showing that common birds are on the decline, adding that a wide range of action is necessary to address the problem.
audubon.org
To Reverse Common Bird Declines, Conservationists Will Need to Think Bigger
The most abundant birds are disappearing the fastest. Saving them requires bold, landscape-scale action.
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Dr. Joan Dudney @dudney-joan.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Really excited to share our new paper on #causalinference & #climatechange attribution out in #EcologyLetters today! Are you asking "how much" or "if" climate change has impacted your system, then this paper is for you! 🧪🌏🌐🍁🌺🌱🌿 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology
Accurately attributing ecological shifts to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we present an accessible causal inference framework designed for climate change attribution in observ...
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Dr Charlie Gardner @charliejgardner.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
"Across observed tropical bird populations, impacts of climate change have typically been larger than direct human pressure"
nature.com
Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Climate change poses a growing threat to biodiversity, but disentangling its overall impact from other anthropogenic stressors is challenging. Here the authors use a data-driven climate attribution fr...
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
📊 Very much looking forward to #ESA2025!! I'll be presenting my work on North American bird declines 📉 Session: COS 153 - Biodiversity 4 Time: Thursday, August 14, 1:30 PM – 1:45 PM EDT Room: BCC 322 See you there!! 🦉🦉
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
🚨 First PhD chapter is out! My work thus far, with @andy2dobson.bsky.social We found that formerly common species have declined the fastest, on average. 📄 North American bird declines are driven by reductions in common species | Science Advances www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
North American bird declines are driven by reductions in common species
Declines in North American birds are driven not by rare species vanishing but by sharp losses among formerly common species.
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
🚨 First PhD chapter is out! My work thus far, with @andy2dobson.bsky.social We found that formerly common species have declined the fastest, on average. 📄 North American bird declines are driven by reductions in common species | Science Advances www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
North American bird declines are driven by reductions in common species
Declines in North American birds are driven not by rare species vanishing but by sharp losses among formerly common species.
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Diana Renn @dianarenn.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Happy #SuperbOwlSunday! This Superb Owl is a northern saw-whet I met while shadowing owl banders in NH, part of my research for my new #mg novel THE OWL PROWL MYSTERY. Comment w your fave owl for a chance to win the book, sticker, & field journal! (owl decoy not included!) #owls #ecofiction
Photo of a northern saw-whet owl perched on a human hand, poised to launch into flight, feathers back, against backdrop of night sky.Photo of a northern saw-whet owl perched on a human hand, face front, dark black nighttime sky.Photo of items for a giveaway: a copy of children's mystery "The Owl Prowl Mystery" by Diana Renn (cover in purple tones features boy on a tree with binoculars, pine trees, and owl in flight against a crescent moon); also shown are a large sticker with an artist's drawing of a saw-whet owl and the slogan "Pay Attention and Protect", and a small brown field journal with the same sticker. Behind items is a large owl decoy, and all are displayed against a window with snowy trees in the background.
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Andy Gonzalez @bio-diverse.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Warming and cooling catalyse widespread temporal turnover in #biodiversity Ecological communities change constantly as some species come while others go - this turnover is accelerated by rapid temperature change, communities becoming more dissimilar over time. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Warming and cooling catalyse widespread temporal turnover in biodiversity - Nature
Global-scale analyses of marine, terrestrial and freshwater assemblages found that temporal rates of species replacement were faster in locations with faster temperature change, including warming and ...
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Andy Gonzalez @bio-diverse.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Harsher dry seasons due to climate change is linked to declining bird survival in the Amazon "...challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their #biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions." www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Climate change aggravates bird mortality in pristine tropical forests
Climate change threatens Amazon rainforest birds, with harsher dry seasons significantly affecting their survival over 27 years.
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Alessandro Rigolon @alerigolon.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
We, the authors, are organizing to continue this effort in other ways. More coming hopefully soon.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 31/01/2025
The first ever US national nature assessment has been terminated and its USGCRP and DOI webpages have been removed. A PDF of the zeroth order draft is still available here: review.globalchange.gov/system/files...
globalchange.gov
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Maybe it's better not to mess around with certain federal functions. It's not a game.
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Carolyn Bertozzi @carolynbertozzi.bskyverified.social · 24/01/2025
Excellent perspective by @lisamjarvis.bsky.social @bloomberg.com on the deep freeze at NIH
bloomberg.com
Trump's NIH Freeze Puts Scientific Research at Risk
America’s best scientific minds are scrambling to determine the impact of the disruption.
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
A peaceful owl amid a chaotic week. Have a good weekend, everyone.
A photo of a Barred Owl. The owl is facing the camera. The owl is sitting on a dead branch that extends at about a 35 degree angle. There are various twigs in the frame, mostly in the background. The distant background is blurry with white clouds and blue sky. The owl has a slight golden-hour glow.
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Richard K Broughton @richardkbroughton.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
"Currently, there is nowhere in Britain that to my knowledge has successfully reversed, or even stopped, Willow Tit decline." #ukbirding #ornithology
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Jim van Belzen @jimvanbelzen.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
"Why biodiversity matters in agriculture and food systems" doi.org/10.1126/scie...
doi.org
Why biodiversity matters in agriculture and food systems
Imagine a world where the variety of food sources we rely on is reduced to a mere handful of species. This is not a dystopian future. It’s the path we are on right now, and it’s happening silently in ...
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Reported this banded Ring-billed Gull in Massachusetts. Just heard back from USGS—he hatched in 2019 and was banded in the summer of 2021 on a small island outside Montreal! Bands can be reported to: www.reportband.gov
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anthrofuentes.bsky.social @anthrofuentes.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Three letters up on my last essay for @ScienceMagazine ...two are really interesting, one is not. Check them out yourself: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Scientists as political advocates
Science, both teaching and doing, is under attack. The recent US presidential election of a person and platform with anti-science bias exemplifies this. The study of climate processes and patterns and...
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
🚨 My first Substack post! 🦅 substack.com/home/post/p-...
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Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior @mpi-animalbehav.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
New paper out @science.org shows that bats surf warm storm fronts to power continental migrations 🌀⛈️🦇🤙 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... By Edward Hurme; Ivan Lenzi; Martin Wikelski; Timm Wild; and Dina Dechmann
science.org
Bats surf storm fronts during spring migration
Long-distance migration, common in passerine birds, is rare and poorly studied in bats. Piloting a 1.2-gram IoT (Internet of Things) tag with onboard processing, we tracked the daily location, tempera...
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Scott Waldman @scottpwaldman.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
The incoming Trump administration plans to target the National Climate Assessment so that it can't be used to defend regulations in court. Russ Vought, Trump's OMB pick, wants to personally approve a team of climate denialists to rewrite it. www.eenews.net/articles/tru...
eenews.net
Trump team takes aim at crown jewel of US climate research
A top aide to the president-elect wants tighter control over the National Climate Assessment.
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
Snowy Owl today at Buffalo NY’s outer harbor! 15x digi zoom on a 60x scope for an owl 550 feet away (safe viewing recs: 150-300 ft min.). Luckily this one is on a private doc that’s fenced off — making for one happy owl! Can’t get closer than 500 ft. Best part of the winter season to me.
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Corey Bradshaw @conservbytes.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
#ConservationClassics: declining and small population paradigms conservationbytes.com/2008/08/23/d...
conservationbytes.com
Classics: Declining and small population paradigms
‘Classics’ is a category of posts highlighting research that has made a real difference to biodiversity conservation. All posts in this category will be permanently displayed on the Cla…
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iBartomeus @ibartomeus.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
[new paper] You probably suspected that loss of pollinator diversity consistently reduces reproductive success for wild and cultivated plants, but here we quantify it: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Loss of pollinator diversity consistently reduces reproductive success for wild and cultivated plants
Nature Ecology & Evolution - A meta-analysis finds that decreasing diversity of pollinator species has a negative affect on multiple measures of plant reproductive success, with wild plant...
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Alan McElligott @amcell.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
“One Health” needs ecology | PNAS 2024 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
“One Health” needs ecology | PNAS
“One Health” needs ecology
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Martin Genner @mgenner.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The responses of freshwater fish to global warming. Our analyses in @pnas.org @bristolbiosci.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Made possible by #RivFishTIME
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Richard Hall @richardlovesbirds.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Wonderful paper uses high-resolution tracking data to show barn swallows & house martins infected with blood parasites have smaller foraging ranges in lower-quality habitat than uninfected birds. Hopefully more such papers on movement-parasitism associations to come! www.nature.com/articles/s42...
nature.com
Sick without signs. Subclinical infections reduce local movements, alter habitat selection, and cause demographic shifts - Communications Biology
Subclinical infections in wild swallows reduce foraging ranges, alter habitat use, and decrease survival rates. A study using ultra-high-resolution tracking reveals overlooked impacts of infection on ...
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Richard Hall @richardlovesbirds.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
A cool new paper delves into possible mechanisms of migratory culling (where infected individuals have lower migration success). The % malaria-infected birds blown off course and predated by falcons in the Canaries was higher than in birds departing Spain for Africa. www.cell.com/iscience/ful...
cell.com
Does malaria infection increase the risk of predation-related mortality during bird migration?
The migratory culling hypothesis posits that infected individuals are less likely to survive long-distance migration due to physiological and behavioral effects, but this lacks empirical evidence. Her...
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Yadvinder Malhi @ymalhi.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Fascinating and ecologically informed read in @theguardian.com about the pathways ecosystems take following rural land abandonment, and how the presence of people can sometimes help nature recovery more than inhibit it www.theguardian.com/news/2024/no...
theguardian.com
The great abandonment: what happens to the natural world when people disappear?
The long read: Across the globe, vast swathes of land are being left to be reclaimed by nature. To see what could be coming, look to Bulgaria
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Lars Brudvig @lars-brudvig.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
It's the very end of November and most vegetation has senesced, but there are still orchids to be found along the Appalachian Trail, including: Downy rattlesnake plantain (Goodyera pubescens) Putty root (Aplectrum hyemale) Crane-fly orchid (Tipularia discolor)
Downy rattlesnake plantain (Goodyera pubescens)Putty root (Aplectrum hyemale)Crane-fly orchid (Tipularia discolor)
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Gavin Simpson @gsimpson.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
🚨 New function 🚨 @vincentab.bsky.social's marginaleffects 📦 is great for generating quantities of interest from your model. I've long wanted something similar to plot_predictions() for my gratia 📦 Introducing conditional_values() 🎉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/refer... #RStats #GAMs #mgcv 1/6
The image shows the result of a call to the conditional_values() function where the GAM contains a factor by smooth. In this figure, predicted values from the model conditional on values of x2 are shown for two levels of the factor fac. As we're conditioning on two variables, we include the group means for the 2 levels of fac, plus the smooth for each category. This model also includes a smooth effect of x0. As we don't condition on this covariate, it will be set to a typical representative value (value of observation closest to the median of x0).

The code to produce both images is below. This image is created by the last line of the code. 

# packages
library("mgcv")
library("gratia")

# categorical conditions are also handled
df <- data_sim("eg4", seed = 2)
m2 <- gam(y ~ fac + s(x2, by = fac) + s(x0), data = df, method = "REML")
cv <- conditional_values(
  m2,
  condition = list("fac", x2 = "fivenum")
)
# plot - we see a discrete x axis with five estimates per level of fac
cv |> draw()

# in this example we condition on `x2` and `fac %in% c(2,3)`
cv <- conditional_values(
  m2,
  condition = list("x2", fac = 2:3)
)
# plot - smooths of `x2` for `fac == 2` and `fac == 3`
cv |> draw()The image shows the result of a call to the conditional_values() function where the GAM contains a factor by smooth. In this figure, predicted values from the model conditional on values of the factor fac are shown for different values of the covariate x2. As we're conditioning on two variables, but focusing on fac, we summarise x2 by default using its Tukey's five number summary, hence there are 5 estimates per category (level) of fac. This model also includes a smooth effect of x0. As we don't condition on this covariate, it will be set to a typical representative value (value of observation closest to the median of x0).

The code to produce both images is below. This particular image is created by the first call to the draw(). 

# packages
library("mgcv")
library("gratia")

# categorical conditions are also handled
df <- data_sim("eg4", seed = 2)
m2 <- gam(y ~ fac + s(x2, by = fac) + s(x0), data = df, method = "REML")
cv <- conditional_values(
  m2,
  condition = list("fac", x2 = "fivenum")
)
# plot - we see a discrete x axis with five estimates per level of fac
cv |> draw()

# in this example we condition on `x2` and `fac %in% c(2,3)`
cv <- conditional_values(
  m2,
  condition = list("x2", fac = 2:3)
)
# plot - smooths of `x2` for `fac == 2` and `fac == 3`
cv |> draw()
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William J. Brady @williambrady.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
New paper out in @ScienceMagazine! In 8 studies (multiple platforms, methods, time periods) we find: misinformation evokes more outrage than trustworthy news, when it does it's shared more + ppl are less likely to read before sharing. w/ @killianmcl1 @Klonick @mollycrockett 🧵👇
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Bernhard Aichner @baichner.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Compound #drought -heatwave events increase in low-income regions twice as fast as in high-income regions. ⚒️ #climate #globalchange www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Anthropogenic climate change doubled the frequency of compound drought and heatwaves in low-income regions - Communications Earth & Environment
From 1981 to 2020, low-income regions experienced a faster increase in the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves events than high-income regions, and the increase is attributed to anthropogenic clim...
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Ditte M. Christiansen @dittemch.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
I am happy to be able to share the last paper from my PhD now published in Ecography: doi.org/10.1111/ecog... Here we show how competitive interactions can modify, and even reverse, the direct effects of climate on organism performance.
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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
The biodiversity data deluge is here - the equivalent of #MooresLaw but for biodiversity data? "we estimated that the total number of plant distribution records doubles every 17 years and the number of spatially unique records doubles every 21 years." onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... 🌎🧪🦋🦫
patial and taxonomic coverage of terrestrial plant occurrence data. Georeferenced plant observations, as illustrated by observation dates in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; the largest biodiversity informatics infrastructure), have increased exponentially over the past 200 years (panels a, b), though the number of species recorded in these databases is reaching saturation (panel c). By integrating additional data sources compiled by Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN; i.e., non-GBIF sources comprising ~15 million records; panel d), the georeferenced plant observations in GBIF can be expanded by an additional ~4 million spatially unique records (panel e) and ~20,000 species (panel f). Still, the gaps in plant distributions warrant our attention: areas in Russia, central Asia, and northern Africa (red colour in panel g) are missing publicly available occurrences. The grey colour in panel (g) represents the presence of plant data, and the black colour represents ice-covered areas
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Phil Levin @phillevin.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
A Lancet editorial highlights the reality: nature & biodiversity underpin our survival. We must act decisively-75% of emerging diseases stem from disrupted ecosystems. There are ethical/moral arguments for protecting biodiversity. + Nature's health is our health. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Biodiversity loss: a health crisis
The Earth is approaching a critical threshold of irreversible biodiversity loss. World leaders, environmental activists, and prominent researchers are gathered in Colombia for the 16th meeting of the ...
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Tom Kimmerer, PhD @tomkimmerer.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
The climate crisis has to be addressed at the national and international level, but consumer choice plays a role. One thing we can do is switch from almonds (R in photo) to pecans (L). Both are similar in nutrition, but it is water use and geography that makes a difference. 1/4
Nuts on a dish, pecans on the left, almonds on the right. Copyright Tom Kimmerer
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Journal of Applied Ecology @jappliedecology.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Disentangling direct & indirect effects of forest structure on biodiversity: Bottom-up & top-down effects between forestry, bats & their insect prey 🦇 Expanding management towards open & old-growth forests may increase roosting & foraging opportunities 🌏 🧪 🔗 buff.ly/4fRIOqT
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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
The Equilibrium Theory of Biodiversity Dynamics: A General Framework for Scaling Species Richness and Community Abundance along Environmental Gradients #macroecology www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
The Equilibrium Theory of Biodiversity Dynamics: A General Framework for Scaling Species Richness and Community Abundance along Environmental Gradients | The American Naturalist
Abstract Large-scale temporal and spatial biodiversity patterns have traditionally been explained by multitudinous particular factors and a few theories. However, these theories lack sufficient genera...
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Andy Dobson @andy2dobson.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Cool new paper with super group of colleagues. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Anthropogenic land consolidation intensifies zoonotic host diversity loss and disease transmission in human habitats - Nature Ecology & Evolution
A 43-year dataset of rodents in the Hu region of China reveals how urbanization-induced changes to land-use configuration affect rodent community composition, including benefitting striped field mice,...
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Dr. Holly P Jones @dochpjones.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
We just had a paper come out today on grassland bird response to bison and fire in two tallgrass prairie preserves run by @nature.org. Ths work was led by amazing former MSc student in the lab Tony del Vallé. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author... #grazing #rxfire #prairie #restoration
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
🟣 A summer 2024 highlight for me: re-finding this rare orchid that was first documented at this exact location by Henry David Thoreau in the 1850s. Only a single plant. The Greater Purple Fringed Orchid (Platanthera grandiflora). Incredible to see the species persisting here over 170 years later.
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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
A starter pack for researchers using #scaling #allometry methods in ecology, economics, computer science, physical sciences, etc. Scaling offers insights into complex systems, linking dynamics from cells to individuals to societies & ecosystems - please add your name! go.bsky.app/EuNK9Na 🧪🦋🦫
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Weekend work break! Check out the tiny hook on the bill of this Slaty Flowerpiercer. They pierce the corolla of flowers, robbing the flower of its nectar without pollinating. A cheater in a coevolutionary system!
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Working from the coffee shop today, finishing some Breeding Bird Survey analyses so I can resubmit a paper... and dreaming of far away places! This was from the closest I got to a scarlet macaw in western Costa Rica. Good times! Really excited about Bluesky, feels like a breath of fresh air.
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Gates Dupont @gates.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
I started to put together a Spatial Capture-Recapture "Starter Pack" so SCR folks can find each other! Obviously this isn't everyone, so let me know who else to add, or reply here if you want to be added! go.bsky.app/M9wxAbC
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