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Alexander Graef

@alxgraef.bsky.social
404 followers 78 following 94 posts

Programme Lead | Russia and European Security | ELN | Security & Defence | Strategy | fmr ACONA Fellow | fmr IFSH | PhD International Affairs HSG | views mine.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Secret #Russian Wunderwaffen: Project #Skif. So secret that Russian media have occasionally reported on it over the past 13 years. Yet, most commentators remained sceptical. In 2013, Lenta reported that it was being developed by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau. 1/10 #defense #nuclear
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Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
In our latest collaboration, @alxgraef.bsky.social and I, scrutinize the conditions under which public commentators can shape Russian foreign policy, despite strategic decision-making being tightly controlled by the President and his inner circle. 1/? academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...
academic.oup.com
The “Karaganov Debate”: How Policy Entrepreneurs Shape Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine
Abstract. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, public references to nuclear weapons within Russia have surged. A key moment came
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
New article (open access) with Gabriela I. Rosa Hernandez in Global Studies Quarterly on the “Karaganov debate”: Can public debate matter even in something as closed as #Russian #nuclear policymaking? We argue yes — and in ways current debates often miss. 1/5 academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...
academic.oup.com
The “Karaganov Debate”: How Policy Entrepreneurs Shape Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine
Abstract. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, public references to nuclear weapons within Russia have surged. A key moment came
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European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
The evolving confrontation between Europe & Russia is not a temporary crisis but a long-term condition. ELN Senior Policy Fellow @alxgraef.bsky.social sets out a new strategy for governing an adversarial relationship with Moscow beyond the war. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/report/manag...
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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Russian aircraft over NATO members' skies are not new. But with full-scale war raging in Ukraine & a volatile information environment, policymakers must do better at identifying what's up there & responding appropriately. @alxgraef.bsky.social & I explain for the @deepcutsproject.bsky.social
deepcuts.org
A Three Body Problem: NATO, Russia and the Politics of Air Incursions : DeepCuts
The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Delighted that we are able to publish this important policy brief by Ben Dandy, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social and Sebastian Schritte on using seismic-acoustic sensors and related analyses for ceasefire monitoring. Highly relevant and innovative. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Widening the ceasefire toolkit: The promise of geophysical monitoring in Ukraine and beyond
Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to incorporate a range of remote-sensing technologies to support its verification activities. Drawing on insig...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
The FT story about Alaska does not come as a surprise. Trump is transactional; Putin less so - but certainly not on Ukraine. Trump clearly expected a deal, but got a long history lesson instead. Aggrieved, he adjusted his policies, but no new principles emerged. The transactional mindset persists.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
With some interesting nuggets: Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
defensenews.com
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles
Fourteen months on, with a new U.S. administration in charge, officials in Berlin believe a Biden-era plan to send an Army unit with such arms is still on.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
The US presence at #Zapad in Belarus is not unexpected, given the mini-rapprochement between both states in recent months. In 2021, the US, along a couple of more states were also invited by #Belarus, though #Russia did not invite #NATO states. 1/5 www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
US military officers observe Russia-Belarus war games as Trump gets closer to Minsk
U.S. military officers observed joint war games between Russia and Belarus on Monday for the first time since Moscow used Belarus as a launchpad to enter Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump deepens ties with Moscow's closest ally.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help" 1/2 europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures
Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
Habe mit dem @derstandard.at über die strategische Lage in der Ukraine gesprochen: 'Der möglich, zukünftige Einsatz von Systemen wie Flamingo setzt Moskau unter Druck, aber es ist auch klar, dass RU alles versuchen wird, diese Entwicklung präemptiv zu verhindern' www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
Presenting an early draft of a paper by @alxgraef.bsky.social and myself at EISA PEC.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
Arms control has a bad image mainly because people conflate it with unilateral disarmament or frame it as the opposite of deterrence. The less they understand it, the more they fall for these fallacies.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Excited to join the European Leadership Network as Senior Policy Fellow for Russia–West relations in tense times, working to address escalation risks.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Der Inspekteur des Heeres General Alfons Mais sagt bei maybritillner, Russland ziehe jährlich 200.000 Wehrpflichtige ein. Außerdem sei die Wehrpflicht kürzlich von 1 auf 2 Jahre erhöht worden. Das Problem: Beides stimmt nicht. youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?... 1/10
youtu.be
Krieg oder Frieden – Sicherheit nur mit den USA? | maybrit illner vom 26. Juni 2025
YouTube video by ZDFheute Nachrichten
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Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
🧵 1/4 Heeresinspekteur Alfons Mais zur #Rüstung u. künftigen Kampfweise der Landstreitkräfte im Behördenspiegel. Darstellung sehr diffus. Vlt. hat der eine oder andere sinnvolle Hinweise zur Einordnung. „Im dt. Heer 2035 plus wird Abstandsfähigkeit konsequent höher priorisiert als Duellfähigkeit.“
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Looking forward to presenting on my academic hobby horse next week at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social: "The Changing Field of Foreign Policy Expertise in Russia", as part of a seminar series organized by the "Beyond post-Sovietism" research group www.sciencespo.fr/ceri-eveneme...
sciencespo.fr
The Changing Field of Foreign Policy Expertise in Russia: Between Politics and the Public Sphere
This seminar is part of the Beyond post-Sovietism. Social and political dynamics research group in collaboration with the seminar Autoritarisme, guerre et mobilisations dans l’espace postsoviétique  (...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
These are the escalation scenarios that should keep us up at night- not some sudden land grabs to dismantle NATO: Shadow fleet showdown in the Gulf of Finland. War is about politics, not simply the balance of power. Recall the Obama doctrine: Don’t do stupid shit! www.lloydslist.com/LL1153505/Es...
lloydslist.com
Estonia redirects maritime traffic after Russia detains Greek tanker
Russia’s detention of Greece-owned aframax just three days after another Baltic Sea incident saw Nato and Russian jets scrambled amid growing security concerns, has prompted EU ministers and Nato officials to discuss shadow fleet clashes
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Habe mit dem Standard über die Gespräche in Istanbul zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine gesprochen. 1/3 www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
derstandard.de
Wie Russlands Sturheit die Diplomatie an ihre Grenzen stoßen lässt
Weil Wladimir Putin auch in Istanbul auf der Kapitulation der Ukraine beharrte und keine Angst vor Donald Trump hat, rückt eine Verhandlungslösung in weite Ferne
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Zum Satz des Bundeskanzlers über die "Konventionell stärkste Armee Europas" habe ich mit @br24.de gesprochen: "Was Merz hier macht, ist ein politisches Signal." Der Kanzler bestätige in ähnlicher Form Aussagen, die auch sein Vorgänger Olaf Scholz getroffen hatte. www.br.de/nachrichten/...
br.de
Merz will "konventionell stärkste Armee" Europas: Was heißt das?
In seiner ersten Regierungserklärung hat Kanzler Merz massive Investitionen in die Verteidigung angekündigt. Die Bundeswehr soll zur "konventionell stärksten Armee Europas" ausgebaut werden. Doch was ...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Talked to Jyllands-Posten about the war and negotiations: "This is a fundamental point: Russia's interest is not to end the war - Russia's interest is to achieve its goals. And if it is necessary to continue the war to achieve that, then Russia will continue it." jyllands-posten.dk/internationa...
jyllands-posten.dk
Ved dette bord i Istanbul troede nogen, at fred i Ukraine var tæt på - nu er det højaktuelt at forstå, hvad der gik galt
Rusland og Ukraine vil måske forhandle direkte med hinanden for første gang, siden de i 2022 senest sad i Istanbul. Jyllands-Posten har talt med en af de centrale ukrainske forhandlere fra de møder. H...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Where does the idea come from that everyone wants #peace? War is a tool of politics. #Putin doesn’t seek peace for its own sake - he wants to reach his objectives. Even #Zelensky isn’t after just any "unjust" peace. That’s why he keeps repeating the phrase "good faith negotiations".
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Die Episode der G4 in Kyjiw zeigt das Problem einer medial getriebenen Politik: Schöne Bilder reichen nicht. Keine Sanktionen vorbereitet. Trumps Zusage über Nacht einkassiert. Ultimatum ohne Folgen verstrichen. Von Putins Vorschlag eines Treffens in Istanbul überrumpelt. 1/3
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
"Das Szenario eines direkten Angriffs auf die Nato beruht somit auf zumindest zweifelhaften Annahmen über die Rationalität politischer Entscheidungsträger im Kreml." www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Russia might want to "change the European security architecture", as they say, but it simply doesn't have the means. A phantom menace. All it can do and certainly wants to do, is to stop further NATO enlargement, and limit Western/EU/NATO/US influence in its neighborhood. 1/5
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Dass die #Taurus-debatte gerade jetzt wieder hochkocht, ist auch ein Zeichen für die politische Ratlosigkeit hierzulande angesichts der US-RU Dynamik. Eine Ersatzhandlung der Symbolpolitik. Strategisch wird es wenig nutzen, ggf sogar schaden. Deshalb wird Merz nicht liefern.
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Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Großbritannien, das sich als ein Leader einer potenziellen #Ukraine-Friedenstruppe inszeniert, schafft es nicht, wie angekündigt, seine Präsenz an der #NATO-Ostflanke zu verstärken; im Gegenteil. Der in Estland stationierte Brigadekern wird abgeschmolzen, der Aufwuchs für Übungen wird zum Problem.
thetimes.com
Estonia’s fears after UK cuts British troop numbers
Country’s former defence commander questions whether the UK is taking its Nato role ‘seriously’
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Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
#EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund, a central demand of France. on.ft.com/3Ridozy
on.ft.com
EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund
Victory for France-backed ‘Buy European’ approach to defence spending
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
The US and Russian readouts of the Trump-Putin call differ, but a key twist is on the scope of the "ceasefire", which is effectively only a limit on targeting. The US reads "energy and infrastructure" but Russia says "energy infrastructure". Those are not necessarily the same 1/2
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European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
@alxgraef.bsky.social calls for political leadership & multi-level diplomacy. He argues that growing military activities highlight the need for military-to-military contacts to manage risks; the OSCE can facilitate these dialogues and provide support. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
From crisis to strategy: The OSCE and arms control in a divided Europe
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the OSCE has faced a deep crisis. Russia and Belarus have violated key norms of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, undermining the OSCE’s role...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
"From Crisis to Strategy: The OSCE and #ArmsControl in a Divided #Europe" for @theeln.bsky.social. The #OSCE remains a crucial platform for dialogue but it needs sufficient capacity for engagement and the ability to address evolving security concerns 1/8 europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-content/u...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
📢Don't miss it: As ceasefire in Ukraine is discussed, @theeln.bsky.social briefing with Katia Glod @alxgraef.bsky.social @janekinninmont.bsky.social and former #OSCE Secretary General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut at 15:00 CET this Friday afternoon will provide crucial background and analysis‼️ 👇
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European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Join us this Friday at 14:00 UTC, for the launch of 2 publications on the OSCE by Katia Glod & Alexander Graef. Speakers also include ELN Policy & Impact Director @janekinninmont.bsky.social & former Secretary General of the OSCE Marc Perrin de Brichambaut. Register below ⤵️ zoom.us/meeting/regi...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Trump doesn't aim to end the war for the benefit of either Ukraine or Russia, but for the advantage of the United States. Relative gains between them are mostly irrelevant to him, but in the global balance sheet, U.S.-Russia relations take precedence over U.S.-Ukraine relations.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Many now talk about European decoupling from the U.S. but underestimate its role in European security. The U.S. is not just a force multiplier but a force integrator. Developing these capabilities and gaining the necessary experience and trust among allies takes years 1/2
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
"Die Ukraine steht heute strategisch noch schlechter da als vor einem Jahr", sagt Alexander Graef. [...] Und: "Der unerwartete direkte Kontakt zwischen Trump und Putin ohne vorherige internationale Abstimmung hat die Ukraine politisch enorm geschwächt." www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
derstandard.de
Drei Jahre Ukrainekrieg: Verhilft Trump Putin jetzt zum Sieg?
Vieles spricht dafür, dass der Kreml doch noch seine Ziele erreicht. Weil die USA ihr in den Rücken fallen, droht der Ukraine die Auslöschung als unabhängiger Staat
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Three years into this war, Ukraine is in a bad position but that doesn't mean Russia is about to overun the country. That is why Trumps initiative is so valuable to Moscow: it promises to achieve diplomatically what otherwise would require continuing a hard & costly mil campaign.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Under Trump European allies might get the chance to understand better how US power can look like from the perspective of non-allies and strategic competitors. A useful lesson in geopolitics and realism.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Three years into this war, Ukraine is in a bad position but that doesn't mean Russia is about to overun the country. That is why Trumps initiative is so valuable to Moscow: it promises to achieve diplomatically what otherwise would require continuing a hard & costly mil campaign.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
The problem with the US approach isn’t the bilateral meeting with Russia w/o Ukraine or the EU. It was always clear that the extent of the crisis required great power dialogue and multilevel diplomacy. The issue is the lack of any parallel tracks and total disinterest in creating them.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
The never ending debate on European strategic autonomy has always been misguided, fixating on military capabilities while real weakness and dependency lie in strategic thinking. Spending resources on tanks and aircraft is easy; building leadership and geopolitical vision takes a generation.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Russian MFA and State Dept press releases about today's meeting. A little bit more detail in the former. www.state.gov/secretary-ru... mid.ru/en/foreign_p...
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
As an EASLG member, glad to support this statement. "Three Essential Steps to Prevent Nuclear War": (1) Prevent nuclear testing, (2) Advance nuclear fail-safe, (3) Affirm and strengthen the fundamental principles governing the use of outer space. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/group-statem...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG): Three essential steps for reversing the slide to nuclear war
Former and serving senior officials, military leaders, and experts from across the Euro-Atlantic region put forward three urgent steps for nuclear-armed states to take to build on the essential princi...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Leseempfehlung: Neuer @ifshhamburg.bsky.social Policy Brief von @alxgraef.bsky.social zu "US-Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland: Abschreckung und Rüstungskontrolle zusammen denken". is.gd/xl7IoR
is.gd
US-Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland: Abschreckung und Rüstungskontrolle zusammen denken - Neuer IFSH-Policy Brief
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Final 2024 publication (in German): Policy-brief on US intermediate-range #missiles in Germany. I argue that the focus should be on military doctrine and comprehensive effects, including risks when deterrence fails. To enhance #stability, Germany can take three steps. 1/5 ifsh.de/file/publica...
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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
This debate is becoming increasingly confused. There are two very different things: European spending on defence and EU spending on defence. They are *not* the same and I have many questions from an EU budget person perspective on why we focus on the latter. Thread: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
EU must find billions for arms within a year, defence chief says
Europe needs to find ways within the next year to fund hundreds of billions of euros in extra military spending to defend against any attack from Russia by the end of the decade, the European Union's new defence commissioner has said.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
The outrage over Lavrov's trip to Malta for the OSCE Ministerial Meeting shows a lack of understanding of political trade-offs. Without Lavrov, reaching an agreement on the leadership positions vacant since September would have been impossible. Diplomacy is more than a megaphone.
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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Talked to WaPo: “We are in an arms race, and it’s going to develop over the next 20 years,” Graef said. “... — Russia, states in Europe, the United States — are growing their arsenals because they don’t have the numbers yet to use these weapons effectively...” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...
washingtonpost.com
What Putin’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile means for NATO security
The Russian leader’s use of the missile against Ukraine sends a powerful signal about his intention to weaken NATO and bend Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s will.
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