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Mike Petersen

@michaelbpetersen.bsky.social
327 followers 140 following 85 posts

Russian military and warfighting analysis at the Center for Naval Analyses; Senior Non-Resident fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute; former Senior Advisor to US Navy CNO; former director of Russia maritime studies at U.S. Naval War College.

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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Getting the Russian Navy to spend limited resources and readiness on things like this is a smart choice. It’s also a good indication that they are on the back foot and in reactive mode.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Washington Post now reporting the Navy told Congress it will be months to clear “20 or so” mines laid by Iran, and that not until war is over. You simply cannot clear mines in an active war zone.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Russian vs. Chinese analysis on the Iran war: Russian analysts think that US talk of negotiations is a smoke screen for future ground operations and Chinese analysts think that hints of ground operations are designed to pressure Iran into negotiations.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
We @fpri.bsky.social published insights from @salisbot.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social and Frank Hoffman about the challenges ahead for the US Navy as it considers how to take control of the Strait of Hormuz www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
FPRI Experts React | Options in the Strait of Hormuz - Foreign Policy Research Institute
After weeks of war, pressure is mounting on the Trump administration to deploy sea and ground forces on an open-ended mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
In 1991, it took a multi-national mine clearing task force of 40+ ships (plus aircraft) four months to clear Iraqi mines *after the war ended* and they knew where the mines were because they had the charts. Today, unmanned systems help, but the process is still extremely slow and dangerous. 1/
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
What intelligence is Russia giving Iran? It’s possible to speculate. Much will be space based imagery of various kinds. This is good for knowing what bases are being used when, and where aircraft may be parked. It can allow Iran to temporarily slow or halt airfield ops, or harass base personnel. 1/
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Russia passing intelligence to Iran is challenging, but not game changing. Their ability to produce over the horizon dynamic targeting is limited. They can help with fixed targets, but moving targets are another thing entirely. And there’s the challenge of passing perishable intelligence to Iran.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The Iranian Navy was never really a threat. But IRGCN FAC/FIACs and unmanned surface vessels are going to be a problem if/when Navy ships head back into the Gulf. Hopefully, the IRGCN has taken the same beating as the actual Iranian Navy.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Lots of good stuff here. And where I explain why the submarine CO who sank Dena could not have done otherwise. It’s worth knowing facts, context, and feasibility in that conversation.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Folks, you know less than you think about how submarine warfare works. Take a knee on this one.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
It is remarkable how little industry knows about the Navy and vice versa.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
In an odd confluence of social media arguments over professional military education and the Iran War, my old colleagues at the Naval War College have years of research showing how difficult it is to defeat Shahed attacks, something they’ve warned of for quite a long time.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
A very important and welcome piece. Drones are dangerous. Their use is necessary. But maneuver, mission command, flexibility, and air power can mitigate impacts like those we see in Ukraine.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Lots of people going a few rounds on the other site over the war game sponsored by Die Welt. Won’t rehash the criticisms, but it’s always useful to remember that it’s just one single-pass war game. Its results aren’t dispositive and only reflect one possible outcome. That’s getting forgotten.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
I’m thrilled join the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s (@fpri.bsky.social) Eurasia Program as a senior non-resident fellow, where I will be writing about Russian and European military and maritime power. Super stoked to rejoin my bud @emilyholland.bsky.social for critical work in a crucial time.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
If the Russian Navy is increasing presence in the Baltic, this is a good thing in the long run. Burning readiness in response to NATO naval activity is a net loss. Increased operational tempo is more “expensive” for Russia than it is for NATO navies.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
This is precisely what the Russians have been concerned about for years, and why they put so much intellectual emphasis on long-range precision strike.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
I was very happy to talk about this with the Washington Post. There's quite a bit of hype about the Poseidon, but I'm not buying it. Gift article: wapo.st/3LiPswj
wapo.st
What we know about the Poseidon, Russia’s new super torpedo
Poseidon is part of Russia’s line up of “super weapons” meant to gain military parity with the West and it can supposedly drown coastal cities.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
This is a reminder that a single Russian SSBN packs way more firepower than a Poseidon whatever-it-is.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
One reason Russia has struggled so badly in UKR is the moribund state of Russian military operational art, which ensures tactical outcomes are linked to strategic goals. New CNA research with me, Paul Schwartz and @gabrielairosa.bsky.social shows how this is true. 1/2 www.cna.org/analyses/202...
cna.org
Russian Concepts of Future Warfare Based on Lessons from the Ukraine War
This paper examines the evolution of military strategy and conventional operations over the Russia-Ukraine War.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
We first met when he was a 1-star at Naval Forces Europe and have crossed paths quite frequently since. It’s not my job to blindly cheer on the Navy, but he’s a great choice; smart, demanding, creative, take-no-prisoners. He’ll work his staff hard, but he’ll also get results.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Sarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
Detailed article quoting 🇬🇧 UK defence sources on 🇷🇺 Russia's undersea warfare, surveillance and maritime sabotage activities near Britain. Some highlights: a 🧵 1) 🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.
thetimes.com
Revealed: Putin’s secret war in UK waters
Russian sensors trying to track nuclear submarines have been found in a campaign of ‘greyzone’ warfare that also targets our energy and internet. Even oligarchs’ superyachts are in on it
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
A thoughtful thread worth a read. I might quibble on Russian submarine missions, but the larger point holds. And there are theater-wide implications beyond Norway. The Barents can be a key staging area for long-range attacks into the UK and Iceland. Adds to importance of UK/Norway partnership.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
I’ve known ADM Franchetti since she took command of Sixth Fleet. We worked some hard warfighting problems together and it was a huge honor to be a part of her team when she became CNO.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
This is one of my go-to’s in the face of the “just buy drones” crowd. A TLAM is, warhead-pound-per-dollar, already more cost effective than a Shahed, not even counting the guidance system, survivability, and modular deployability advantages. Drones are good but not perfect.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
Syria could allow Russia to keep its bases, new defense minister says
In an interview, Murhaf Abu Qasra, a onetime leader in Syria’s insurgency, discussed moves by authorities in Damascus to build new alliances.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
I won’t take sides in this argument, but the bottom line is that no matter what the reason for this latest incident, Russia’s dark fleet is a significant danger in the maritime environment and requires more thoroughgoing and permanent policy solutions beyond stationing naval vessels in the Baltic.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
I’ve made this argument before but it bears repeating based on the latest ceasefire new: if CENTCOM’s strategic objectives in the Red Sea include the restoration of white shipping, you have to understand that corporate incentives are not neatly aligned towards a quick return to the Suez route.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
I was Halsey Alfa faculty for a year before setting up a similar program for Russia. Hands down, Halsey Alfa is *the* premier US/China warfighting analytic and educational program in the US Navy. It goes far, far beyond any other China warfighting analysis in the world. There’s nothing like it.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
I’m not a skeptic of China’s military power, but a common theme of Chinese military equipment in Russian hands is that it is highly unreliable. Why would this be different if it was in Chinese hands? Either Russia analysts are overstating it or China analysts are ignoring it. What gives?
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
One outcome of the Ukraine War is that U.S leadership has begun planning for the possibility of protraction while Russian strategy writers continue to rely on the idea of a short, sharp war with NATO.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
Hegseth thinks ADM Franchetti is an example of "the perils of promoting diversity and inclusion?" If true, he is wrong. I've known her since 2018 & worked for her in 2023/24 as CNO. She's successfully commanded fleets, strike groups, & destroyer squadrons. She's for real. www.wsj.com/articles/joh...
wsj.com
The Wealthy Investor Who Is Trump’s Choice to Rebuild the Navy
Money manager John Phelan has little national-security experience and a deep network of Republican connections.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 12/12/2024
Looks like folks may have counted Russia out of Syria too soon. (Probably the same people who refuse to capitalize Russia’s name, I’d wager.) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Russia Nears Deal With New Syria Leaders to Keep Military Bases
Russia is nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to keep two vital military bases in the Middle East state, a key objective of the Kremlin after the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
One possible outcome among many here is a renegotiated basing agreement that has more balanced terms than the one currently in effect.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
An exceptional thread as always. To this, I'd add a point about sealift. Unless Russia has to leave immediately (they don't right now), you will see more ships at Tartus, not fewer.
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 08/12/2024
The Kremlin claims to be in contact with "representatives of the armed Syrian opposition" and supposedly got guarantees on "the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria." tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
tass.ru
ТАСС: оппозиция Сирии гарантировала безопасность военных баз РФ
Российские официальные лица находятся в контакте с представителями оппозиции, отметил источник в Кремле
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
I’ve said it elsewhere, but unless they leave a lot of equipment behind, perhaps a better indication of imminent evacuation of Tartus is more Russian sealift appearing there, not less.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Everyone seems focused on Russia fleeing Tartus/Humeimim, but it seems an equal possibility that Moscow may try to cut a deal with HTS to maintain presence at both. This is of course speculation, but seems plausible.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
A thousand times, this.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Reading a Russian account of the 2022 Battle of Gostomel and came across this tidbit I didn't know: Russian paratroops were supposedly supplied with two days of lethal ammunition and a day's supply of rubber bullets. So they were expecting maybe a day of light resistance and some civil pacification.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Russian warships are back in Tartus. So they are not "fleeing." This is a plea for putting a little sobriety back into analysis.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
“Russia had recently switched to a Chinese motor after Western countries imposed sanctions to block Moscow’s access to Western technology.” Chinese equipment on Russian platforms often fails, begging the question of how often it fails on Chinese platforms. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Far from the front lines, a spy war rages over Russian weapons
Faltering Russian drones point to modest successes in Western sanctions to block Moscow’s access to technology. Yet, aided by covert operatives, Russia’s weapons production is soaring.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
An important read that gets to the heart of a critical question that “All in on Ukraine” Biden Admin critics haven’t faced: that the admin has to balance considerations that its critics do not. Criticize Biden for sure (I do), but be fair and recognize that his constraints are greater than yours.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Who knows if they are loaded and/or what they are loaded with, but this photo depicts 40 Kalibr-capable vertical launch tubes plus 4-6 more Kalibrs loaded into torpedo tubes. They are probably not fully loaded, if at all, but this is still nothing to sneeze at.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
What motivates Russian soldiers in Ukraine? There's an interesting survey on combat motivation in Ukraine published in, oddly, the August 2024 edition of Morskoi Sbornik. The survey period was through January 2024 and points to soldiers' evolving motivations. Some highlights: 1/9
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Reposted by Mike Petersen
Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
This is my annual Thanksgiving post: 2018 on USS Harry S. Truman. The CSs and supply officers work their hardest on the days the rest of the crew is trying to have some fun. The scale of the effort is made clear in the menu below. Have a happy holiday and keep in mind those far from home.
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
My old institute published a translation of Russia’s latest nuclear doctrine. Very useful for non-Russian readers. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/rmsi_researc...
digital-commons.usnwc.edu
Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence
On 19 November 2024, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the revised "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence." T...
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Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Great thread. Olya’s who I always look to for these smart observations on Russian nukes.
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