Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Getting the Russian Navy to spend limited resources and readiness on things like this is a smart choice. It’s also a good indication that they are on the back foot and in reactive mode. 041
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Washington Post now reporting the Navy told Congress it will be months to clear “20 or so” mines laid by Iran, and that not until war is over. You simply cannot clear mines in an active war zone. 0209
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/04/2026Russian vs. Chinese analysis on the Iran war: Russian analysts think that US talk of negotiations is a smoke screen for future ground operations and Chinese analysts think that hints of ground operations are designed to pressure Iran into negotiations. 0142
Reposted by Mike PetersenAaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 20/03/2026We @fpri.bsky.social published insights from @salisbot.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social and Frank Hoffman about the challenges ahead for the US Navy as it considers how to take control of the Strait of Hormuz www.fpri.org/article/2026...fpri.orgFPRI Experts React | Options in the Strait of Hormuz - Foreign Policy Research InstituteAfter weeks of war, pressure is mounting on the Trump administration to deploy sea and ground forces on an open-ended mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, 185
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 10/03/2026In 1991, it took a multi-national mine clearing task force of 40+ ships (plus aircraft) four months to clear Iraqi mines *after the war ended* and they knew where the mines were because they had the charts. Today, unmanned systems help, but the process is still extremely slow and dangerous. 1/ 2258
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/03/2026What intelligence is Russia giving Iran? It’s possible to speculate. Much will be space based imagery of various kinds. This is good for knowing what bases are being used when, and where aircraft may be parked. It can allow Iran to temporarily slow or halt airfield ops, or harass base personnel. 1/ 110
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/03/2026Russia passing intelligence to Iran is challenging, but not game changing. Their ability to produce over the horizon dynamic targeting is limited. They can help with fixed targets, but moving targets are another thing entirely. And there’s the challenge of passing perishable intelligence to Iran. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026The Iranian Navy was never really a threat. But IRGCN FAC/FIACs and unmanned surface vessels are going to be a problem if/when Navy ships head back into the Gulf. Hopefully, the IRGCN has taken the same beating as the actual Iranian Navy. 130
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Lots of good stuff here. And where I explain why the submarine CO who sank Dena could not have done otherwise. It’s worth knowing facts, context, and feasibility in that conversation. 020
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Folks, you know less than you think about how submarine warfare works. Take a knee on this one. 062
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 04/03/2026It is remarkable how little industry knows about the Navy and vice versa. 041
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/03/2026In an odd confluence of social media arguments over professional military education and the Iran War, my old colleagues at the Naval War College have years of research showing how difficult it is to defeat Shahed attacks, something they’ve warned of for quite a long time. 040
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 10/02/2026A very important and welcome piece. Drones are dangerous. Their use is necessary. But maneuver, mission command, flexibility, and air power can mitigate impacts like those we see in Ukraine. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/02/2026Lots of people going a few rounds on the other site over the war game sponsored by Die Welt. Won’t rehash the criticisms, but it’s always useful to remember that it’s just one single-pass war game. Its results aren’t dispositive and only reflect one possible outcome. That’s getting forgotten. 010
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026I’m thrilled join the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s (@fpri.bsky.social) Eurasia Program as a senior non-resident fellow, where I will be writing about Russian and European military and maritime power. Super stoked to rejoin my bud @emilyholland.bsky.social for critical work in a crucial time. 020
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 16/12/2025If the Russian Navy is increasing presence in the Baltic, this is a good thing in the long run. Burning readiness in response to NATO naval activity is a net loss. Increased operational tempo is more “expensive” for Russia than it is for NATO navies. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2025This is precisely what the Russians have been concerned about for years, and why they put so much intellectual emphasis on long-range precision strike. 020
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 01/11/2025I was very happy to talk about this with the Washington Post. There's quite a bit of hype about the Poseidon, but I'm not buying it. Gift article: wapo.st/3LiPswjwapo.stWhat we know about the Poseidon, Russia’s new super torpedoPoseidon is part of Russia’s line up of “super weapons” meant to gain military parity with the West and it can supposedly drown coastal cities. 022
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 31/10/2025This is a reminder that a single Russian SSBN packs way more firepower than a Poseidon whatever-it-is. 001
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/08/2025One reason Russia has struggled so badly in UKR is the moribund state of Russian military operational art, which ensures tactical outcomes are linked to strategic goals. New CNA research with me, Paul Schwartz and @gabrielairosa.bsky.social shows how this is true. 1/2 www.cna.org/analyses/202...cna.orgRussian Concepts of Future Warfare Based on Lessons from the Ukraine WarThis paper examines the evolution of military strategy and conventional operations over the Russia-Ukraine War. 230
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 18/06/2025We first met when he was a 1-star at Naval Forces Europe and have crossed paths quite frequently since. It’s not my job to blindly cheer on the Navy, but he’s a great choice; smart, demanding, creative, take-no-prisoners. He’ll work his staff hard, but he’ll also get results. 010
Reposted by Mike PetersenSarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 06/04/2025Detailed article quoting 🇬🇧 UK defence sources on 🇷🇺 Russia's undersea warfare, surveillance and maritime sabotage activities near Britain. Some highlights: a 🧵 1) 🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.thetimes.comRevealed: Putin’s secret war in UK watersRussian sensors trying to track nuclear submarines have been found in a campaign of ‘greyzone’ warfare that also targets our energy and internet. Even oligarchs’ superyachts are in on it 57948
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/03/2025A thoughtful thread worth a read. I might quibble on Russian submarine missions, but the larger point holds. And there are theater-wide implications beyond Norway. The Barents can be a key staging area for long-range attacks into the UK and Iceland. Adds to importance of UK/Norway partnership. 150
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 23/02/2025I’ve known ADM Franchetti since she took command of Sixth Fleet. We worked some hard warfighting problems together and it was a huge honor to be a part of her team when she became CNO. 151
Reposted by Mike PetersenJoshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/02/2025This is one of my go-to’s in the face of the “just buy drones” crowd. A TLAM is, warhead-pound-per-dollar, already more cost effective than a Shahed, not even counting the guidance system, survivability, and modular deployability advantages. Drones are good but not perfect. 041
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/02/2025Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...washingtonpost.comSyria could allow Russia to keep its bases, new defense minister saysIn an interview, Murhaf Abu Qasra, a onetime leader in Syria’s insurgency, discussed moves by authorities in Damascus to build new alliances. 010
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 22/01/2025I won’t take sides in this argument, but the bottom line is that no matter what the reason for this latest incident, Russia’s dark fleet is a significant danger in the maritime environment and requires more thoroughgoing and permanent policy solutions beyond stationing naval vessels in the Baltic. 010
Reposted by Mike PetersenJoshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 16/01/2025 I’ve made this argument before but it bears repeating based on the latest ceasefire new: if CENTCOM’s strategic objectives in the Red Sea include the restoration of white shipping, you have to understand that corporate incentives are not neatly aligned towards a quick return to the Suez route. 112
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 14/01/2025I was Halsey Alfa faculty for a year before setting up a similar program for Russia. Hands down, Halsey Alfa is *the* premier US/China warfighting analytic and educational program in the US Navy. It goes far, far beyond any other China warfighting analysis in the world. There’s nothing like it. 020
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/01/2025I’m not a skeptic of China’s military power, but a common theme of Chinese military equipment in Russian hands is that it is highly unreliable. Why would this be different if it was in Chinese hands? Either Russia analysts are overstating it or China analysts are ignoring it. What gives? 011
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/01/2025One outcome of the Ukraine War is that U.S leadership has begun planning for the possibility of protraction while Russian strategy writers continue to rely on the idea of a short, sharp war with NATO. 040
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 30/12/2024Hegseth thinks ADM Franchetti is an example of "the perils of promoting diversity and inclusion?" If true, he is wrong. I've known her since 2018 & worked for her in 2023/24 as CNO. She's successfully commanded fleets, strike groups, & destroyer squadrons. She's for real. www.wsj.com/articles/joh...wsj.comThe Wealthy Investor Who Is Trump’s Choice to Rebuild the NavyMoney manager John Phelan has little national-security experience and a deep network of Republican connections. 140
Reposted by Mike PetersenKevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 12/12/2024Looks like folks may have counted Russia out of Syria too soon. (Probably the same people who refuse to capitalize Russia’s name, I’d wager.) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...bloomberg.comRussia Nears Deal With New Syria Leaders to Keep Military BasesRussia is nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to keep two vital military bases in the Middle East state, a key objective of the Kremlin after the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad. 10328
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 11/12/2024One possible outcome among many here is a renegotiated basing agreement that has more balanced terms than the one currently in effect. 030
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 09/12/2024An exceptional thread as always. To this, I'd add a point about sealift. Unless Russia has to leave immediately (they don't right now), you will see more ships at Tartus, not fewer. 0302
Reposted by Mike PetersenKevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 08/12/2024The Kremlin claims to be in contact with "representatives of the armed Syrian opposition" and supposedly got guarantees on "the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria." tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...tass.ruТАСС: оппозиция Сирии гарантировала безопасность военных баз РФРоссийские официальные лица находятся в контакте с представителями оппозиции, отметил источник в Кремле 53814
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2024I’ve said it elsewhere, but unless they leave a lot of equipment behind, perhaps a better indication of imminent evacuation of Tartus is more Russian sealift appearing there, not less. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 07/12/2024Everyone seems focused on Russia fleeing Tartus/Humeimim, but it seems an equal possibility that Moscow may try to cut a deal with HTS to maintain presence at both. This is of course speculation, but seems plausible. 120
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/12/2024Reading a Russian account of the 2022 Battle of Gostomel and came across this tidbit I didn't know: Russian paratroops were supposedly supplied with two days of lethal ammunition and a day's supply of rubber bullets. So they were expecting maybe a day of light resistance and some civil pacification. 210
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 06/12/2024Russian warships are back in Tartus. So they are not "fleeing." This is a plea for putting a little sobriety back into analysis. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 05/12/2024“Russia had recently switched to a Chinese motor after Western countries imposed sanctions to block Moscow’s access to Western technology.” Chinese equipment on Russian platforms often fails, begging the question of how often it fails on Chinese platforms. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...washingtonpost.comFar from the front lines, a spy war rages over Russian weaponsFaltering Russian drones point to modest successes in Western sanctions to block Moscow’s access to technology. Yet, aided by covert operatives, Russia’s weapons production is soaring. 000
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 03/12/2024An important read that gets to the heart of a critical question that “All in on Ukraine” Biden Admin critics haven’t faced: that the admin has to balance considerations that its critics do not. Criticize Biden for sure (I do), but be fair and recognize that his constraints are greater than yours. 010
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 02/12/2024Who knows if they are loaded and/or what they are loaded with, but this photo depicts 40 Kalibr-capable vertical launch tubes plus 4-6 more Kalibrs loaded into torpedo tubes. They are probably not fully loaded, if at all, but this is still nothing to sneeze at. 020
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 30/11/2024What motivates Russian soldiers in Ukraine? There's an interesting survey on combat motivation in Ukraine published in, oddly, the August 2024 edition of Morskoi Sbornik. The survey period was through January 2024 and points to soldiers' evolving motivations. Some highlights: 1/9 100
Reposted by Mike PetersenJoshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 27/11/2024This is my annual Thanksgiving post: 2018 on USS Harry S. Truman. The CSs and supply officers work their hardest on the days the rest of the crew is trying to have some fun. The scale of the effort is made clear in the menu below. Have a happy holiday and keep in mind those far from home. 011
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 25/11/2024My old institute published a translation of Russia’s latest nuclear doctrine. Very useful for non-Russian readers. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/rmsi_researc...digital-commons.usnwc.eduFundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear DeterrenceOn 19 November 2024, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the revised "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence." T... 010
Mike Petersen @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Great thread. Olya’s who I always look to for these smart observations on Russian nukes. 000