FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Hi David! I hope all is well. For those not on Twitter but interested in keeping track of credit I write semi-regularly on my free Substack. You can find it under my name - Fil Zucchi or the ‘stack’s name “Fil’s Randoms on the Markets”. 020 0
Reposted by FZucchiQuantian @quantian.bsky.social · 21/03/2026I’m sure exposing upper middle class air travelers nationwide to masked ICE psychos they had previously only encountered in the news will do wonders for Trump’s popularity 622233 0
Reposted by FZucchiTom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 21/03/2026Trump’s death will unleash the greatest karma bitch response in modern human history. 88213 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 04/07/2025Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president 060 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Catching up on corporate credit and equities. open.substack.com/pub/filzucch...open.substack.comThe More Things Change...: Equity And Credit Markets Are Back To Their Old WaysCredit is again a tailwind for stocks, while speculation once again runs rampant. 160 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 14/05/20251/ The notion that orange ape is shaking hands and making deals w/ a high-ranking Al-Qaeda terrorist, while spitting in the face of every western country - countries who sacrificed their soldiers to back us in the fight against those very terrorists - is a new low even for trump. #MAGA #MAGAMorons 260 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 14/05/20251/ All quiet on the cred front after the massive rally of the last couple of days. Spreads r back to pre 4/2 levels & supportive of stks. After April putrid totals, May issuance has been very strong at > $100B MTD. Idxs r very o/bought on daily... 120 0
Reposted by FZucchiVandy, C.A. @cavandy.bsky.social · 13/05/2025the embarrassment plunges new depths every. fucking. day. 3202 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 06/05/2025Cross-currents in cred & stks continue. 3-mth VIX curve still < 0; IG/HY spreads still wider than when stks were at these prices b4 4/2.But issuance (most important) is catching up,w/ $30b so far this wk, & much > tdy as cos frontrun the Fed. Spec cred bears in IG CDX seem stuck in neutral for now. 020 0
Reposted by FZucchiIvan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 04/05/2025Impeach and convict this m'fer NOW. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 714130 0
Reposted by FZucchiRuo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 02/05/2025probably gonna be another fun quarter 5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad 031 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 02/05/20251/ I may be totally off base, but my credit and volatility tells have served me (very) well for a (very) long time. The move off the lows to me looks like a helluva "bull trap". And if I am wrong, I can't think of any reasons why I should get longer at these prices... 161 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 01/05/20251/ YTD IG bond issuance = $730b; YTD HY bond issuance = $76b.This is the No.1 reason I'm often a bit dismissive of focusing on HY bonds/spreads:the size of the mkt is relatively insignificant.The 2d reason is that HY holders expect/shud expect losses so they r not likely to freak out if that happens 330 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 01/05/2025As stks romp, IG spread is flat w/ breadth 2:1 to the bad; HY is leading, tighter by 9bps, w/ breadth 7:1 to the good; volume in both IG/HY is very light; IG CDX flat; 3-mth $VIX curve is still inverted by about 1pt. As confusing as it gets imho 040 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 01/05/20251/ A strange month going out with a very strange day: IG/HY at the worst levels of the day, +4.5/+15; IG CDX +1bp; almost no issuance; but stks at the best level of day; 3-mth $VIX curve still under water by 1pt. Total bond issuance for the month is the lowest for a month of April since 2013... 140 0
Reposted by FZucchiTom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 28/04/2025my favorite bit from the weekend was Bessent trying to pretend the utter chaos and dysfunction that is Trump's trade and tariff policy is driven by game theory! "strategic uncertainty" hahahaha you're gonna see that a ton from me! 2545 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 27/04/2025Ever wonder why Iraqi men all had the same mustache as Saddam Hussein, or the rajneeshees all wore red clothing…? 040 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 26/04/2025media.tenor.coma woman wearing a white hat and a red shirt is standing in front of a sign that says praise be .ALT: a woman wearing a white hat and a red shirt is standing in front of a sign that says praise be . 020 0
Reposted by FZucchiCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 26/04/2025BRUSUELAS: “.. investors have pushed U.S. five-year credit default swaps roughly 20 basis points higher. Those swaps now stand well above comparable risk to German and U.K. swaps, which reflects a modest loss in the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities." 👀 834985 0
Reposted by FZucchiRobin @permanentbeginner.bsky.social · 24/04/2025I trade HY munis. No liquidity rn can drive a bus thru spreads. 021 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 24/04/20251/ IG/HY spreads -3/-1 still can't make a decent move relative to stks. 3-mth $VIX curve peeked above -3 and made a U-turn south. Also, IG trading breadth is 11:1 to the good but volume is tepid, and HY breadth is only 1:1 also on low volume... 230 0
Reposted by FZucchiSteve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 24/04/2025I mean if you’re China, why not just sit back and wait? I’m not rooting for China, I’m in favor of strategy, coherence and consistency with a positive goal that will boost US and global economic growth. None of that here. 1626429 0
Reposted by FZucchiSteve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China. 1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy 2nd: Backs China into a corner. 3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding 4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar 5th: no end game, no plan 50679123 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 23/04/2025Everything that comes out of the circus tent on PA Ave-good or bad-is almost certain to be walked back sooner than l8r. Every x that happens a piece of the econ dies as > & > biz throw in the towel on hiring/spending. The bad h/lines will hammer mkts > & >, while good h/lines will work <& <. 030 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 23/04/20251/ W/ ref to last nites posts (↓): IG spreads -6.0 is good, not gr8; HY -25 btr than IG; 3-mth $VIX curve at -4 (from -5 at yday close) 100% unconvinced of rally;bond issuance a little btr; I've reloaded LOTs of low delta long dated indx puts, but also scaling into more #GEV long and a few others... 230 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 23/04/20251/ Just got back to the screens to see that the orange ape looks to have folded like a wet noodle. Two thoughts: i) Even if the tariff issue is resolved w/ most of the world, we still have no idea where it will settle w/ China; that's a major econ hangover... 160 0
Reposted by FZucchiCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 22/04/2025AUTHERS: “.. Once confidence is lost and people try to repatriate money, the landslide can build momentum. It needed a catalyst, a first rock to slip, and Trump 2.0 seems to have provided it.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... 834282 0
Reposted by FZucchiIvan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 21/04/2025This was the first time Pope Francis died: 1016218 0
Reposted by FZucchisouthpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · 21/04/2025Thanks, JD, for making it happen! 44128092 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 21/04/2025"stks r ↓ ~2%, $DXY unch, IG/HY cred spreads +4.5/+20bps, the former slightly better than stks, latter worse. Issuance remains very thin." .... A recap of the mkts attempt to recover from the chaos of the last cpl of wks, & sticky risks filzucchi.substack.com/p/the-path-b...filzucchi.substack.comThe Path Back From The Brink, And "Sticky" WorriesWhile credit spreads are crawling their way to safer levels, the USD - and what it could do to interest rates - remain a major worry. 040 0
Reposted by FZucchiMontana Skeptic @montanaskeptic.bsky.social · 19/04/2025That's the real story, Jen. Trump is so fabulously lazy, ignorant, and stupid that he doesn't even know how to correctly peddle the lies he's been fed. 0253 0
Reposted by FZucchiMontana Skeptic @montanaskeptic.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Donald Trump should be hung by his feet with his balls stuffed in his mouth. 3504 0
Reposted by FZucchiMontana Skeptic @montanaskeptic.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Here's a direct link to that J. Harvie Wilkinson III opinion. It's astonishing that he could write something so moving in one day, but he has always been an outstanding judge. In the age of Trump, it has something of an elegiac quality. It's making me sad. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...storage.courtlistener.com 2315 0
Reposted by FZucchiMontana Skeptic @montanaskeptic.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Most corrupt president in American history. It’s not even close. 16213 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 17/04/20251/ +1 decent day for cred spreads: IG/HY & IG CDX better by 3.4,14 & 2bps.VIX @ 30, 3-mth VIX curve -4.75 at levels that need to break, & where they've been rejected b4. After Mon & Tue $38b of new corp bond issuance, buyers & sellers r absent. But bank bonds sold this week r acting well so far... 110 0
Reposted by FZucchiTom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 16/04/2025Per Wapner the Ackman $HTZ stake is really more like <19%> of the company (not the 4% filed) this morning - but what’s really disturbing is that Ackman got a waiver to not have to file around that position size. Crony capitalism at its worst. Not bullish for out markets. 2689 0
Reposted by FZucchiTero Kuittinen @teroterotero.bsky.social · 17/04/2025We may now face a coordinated GOP drive to slander and tarnish Powell so they can dispose of him. If this ramps up, bond markets will not be amused. Neither will foreign pension funds. 22868208 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 16/04/2025It's deja-vu all over again!! IG/HY +1/+10, IG CDX +1, while $QQQ -3% and $VIX complex still misbehaves. Throw in $38B of issuance in the last 2 days, and imho these are all steps toward restoring normalcy in credit, still in the distance as that may be. #SPY #QQQ #IWM 040 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 16/04/2025Same story, different hour: IG/HY spreads are now tighter on the day, -2.4/-1bps while stks revisit the lows. Net net, it's a good thing. #SPY #QQQ #IWM 030 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 16/04/20251/ More baby steps to the good in the cred mkts (at least for now) as IG/HY cash & derivs spreads r basically unch despite the #NVDA news, the horrid #ASML report, & general weakness in stks. #VIX / 3-mth VIX curve at 31.5/-6.5 not as friendly to stks... 210 0
Reposted by FZucchiSteve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 14/04/2025If the U.S. government is going to take the position that, once removed from the United States, folks can’t be brought back, then it sure seems to me that federal courts should be reflexively and categorically barring *all* removals until they’re 100 percent certain that the removals are lawful. 12585405213728 0
Reposted by FZucchiTom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Every single day more Americans will hear the name Abrego Garcia is a bad day for Trump. 37312 0
Reposted by FZucchiit’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 15/04/2025very boring session. like a 1 out of 10 from the past 2 weeks. but the VX future that goes first tomorrow is only down .2 from almost 26 1101 0
Reposted by FZucchiCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 15/04/2025GARY COHN: “.. The consumer is trying to get in front of tariffs. .. they are out, spending money. .. I think we are front-end loading demand.” @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0... 6048067 0
Reposted by FZucchiDavid Miller @biotechmiller.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Zero chance the SEC takes on an insider-trading investigation, so will the exchanges step up? Any journalists hammering on the exchange enforcement groups to find out what they plan to do about all the obviously insider-fed trades we saw last week? 192 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 15/04/2025This one is aging well. Could change on a dime of course, but the baby steps are in the right direction. 030 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Today's chop in stks so far has been a "stk thing". IG CDX is not leading or lagging and it's flat as pancake, which is a good thing. IG/HY spreads still to the good by 2.3/4bps. If spreads can ignore a "scary...ish" p/back in stks, it'd be another step off the ledge. #SPY #QQQ #IWM 030 0
FZucchi @fzucchi.bsky.social · 15/04/20251/After yday's $18.2B of new bond sales, more bonds coming from #GS #WFC & a few others. IG/HY risk spreads absorbed the EU tariffs ok, giving up some of the tightening, but still 1.5/3.3 better for the day (baby steps)... 100 0