Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 28/06/2026The economics are compelling in principle. A PAC-3 MSE costs ~$7M per unit. Achieving 80-95% intercept probability per engagement requires 2-3 shots: $14-21M per incoming missile. A $1M interceptor can undercut that curve at much lower individual intercept probabilities. 4/5 1453
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/05/2026Big cruise missile day in Europe. 1) Destinus revealed a 2,000-kilometer Block 3 variant of its Ruta air-launched cruise missile. 2) MBDA updated on its ground-launched Land Cruise Missile (Europe's closest Tomahawk equivalent), reportedly ready for order in 2029. 1/4 112529
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 07/05/2026Episode two of the Mildly Alarmed podcast is in the can and out tomorrow. This one covers the state of European security and defense. We are still finding our footing, but we are having fun along the way. If you want to follow along and are not yet subscribed, you can do so via the links below. 1303
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/05/2026Some thoughts on the United States ending plans to deploy a Long-Range Fires battalion to Europe: I am somewhat less alarmed about what this means for Germany and Europe. 1/6 618646
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 22/02/2026Some thoughts on the impending U.S. operation against Iran: 1) Within hours, the United States, together with Israel, will establish complete air dominance over Iran. What follows will be a highly visible display of power that only the United States can generate at scale. 1/6 2111945
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 01/02/2026PhD submitted. I will save the grand speech for after the (hopefully successful) defense, but for now let me just say that I am incredibly grateful to everyone who supported me along the way, first and foremost my PhD supervisors. 1/2 91373
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 28/12/2025American and European manufactures, including established firms and new market entrants, are competing for market share in Europe. Given the state of transatlantic relations, European suppliers may have an advantage. American competitors try to counter by offering localization of production. 5/6 2656
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/12/2025May god help us all, the defense bros have made it to China. 2574
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 30/11/2025At the end of 2025, most of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike systems fall into the “light” category (12 in total), defined here as carrying a payload of less than 100 kilograms. In contrast, only nine systems fall into the medium and heavy categories combined. 2/4 1473
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2025I’ve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense intercept rate. It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 38012
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 25/09/2025European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike. First test flight expected in 2027. 510316
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2025However, Safran only supplies high-end turbojet engines that are not suitable for the large numbers of lighter cruise missiles Europe will require. This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe. 4/7 1211
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2025Unfortunately, the European mini jet engine industry is in a precarious state. Including Ukraine and Turkey, Europe had only four miniature jet engine manufacturers before 2022. Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs. 3/7 1201
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2025It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe. 1/2 712126
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2025Russia launched 805 Shahed-type long-range drones in a single attack. Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support. 1/2 422283
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 04/09/2025I'll publish a more comprehensive battle damage assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s first confirmed combat use on my Substack tomorrow morning. After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile. Sign up here: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 2442
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 04/09/2025Working on a Ukrainian LRS dataset: Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance? Information I find is ambiguous. 2284
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 02/09/2025So apparently the specifications of the Palyanytsya missile have been published. The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below. But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile. 1/2 29113
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2025I could now go on about how it took 3.5 years to get here, and how much the previous German government, and partly this one, failed to realize this simple fact. But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached. 1/3 623745
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 25/08/2025First picture of the "Long Neptune", a range-enhanced 1000-kilometer variant of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version. 1/2 210011
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 22/08/2025A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter. I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe. Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 4878
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 20/08/2025Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point. 1722644
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/08/2025On thing to note is that the long-range strike issue is one area where the Merz government handled matters well. I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important. 1/3 923641
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 17/08/2025Reported specifications (treat with caution as not yet verified in any way): 31197
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 17/08/2025So, apparently a new Ukrainian cruise missile has entered the chat. 3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for. The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence. 32980216
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 12/08/2025I'm sorry, but the arguments in this thread make no sense. "While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability". If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way. 1/5 1192
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 10/08/2025My analysis suggests that a conservative estimate of the 9M729’s characteristics, particularly the size of its fuel tank, indicates a range of 1,400 to 1,700 kilometers, well above the 500-kilometer limit. 4/7 1391
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 09/08/2025That is exactly what Russia tried to claim in 2019, and it was as unconvincing then as it is now. I'm still losing it over this comically large control section and the tiny fuel tank depicted. 4/6 1201
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 09/08/2025Approximate dimensions of the 9M729 according to Russian specifications. The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly 6.73 m in total. 1/6 1426
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 05/07/2025Following public demand, I sat down and ran the numbers for Patriot and SAMP/T interceptor production in the United States and Europe, both for 2025 and looking ahead. The picture is clear: the math ain't mathing when it comes to Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy. 1/2 210013
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 04/07/2025It’s infuriating that the United States has halted delivery of Patriot interceptors, and yes, the 30 PAC-3 MSEs stored in Poland would have helped & are badly needed. But our missile defense cannot keep pace with Russia’s missile production. Trying to win that race puts us on the losing side. 1/2 522353
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Though official figures should be treated with caution, I'd say they align with available imagery and pre-war expectations. Including impacts in non-urban areas, Iranian missiles likely have a 5–10% “success rate”, defined here as missiles that penetrated landed near their intended targets. 1/3 1618
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Europa muss jetzt dringend die Rüstungsindustrie hochfahren. Um nur ein Beispiel zu nennen: Russland produziert jährlich 700 Kurzstreckenballistische Raketen. In Europa sind es genau null. Das ist in keiner Weise akzeptabel, und dieses Delta muss dringend behoben werden. 37014
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 29/05/2025Germany will finance several Ukrainian missile and drone capabilities, including the BARS and AN-196 Liutyi long-range strike systems (700-800 km and 1,000-2,000 km range, respectively), according to German newspaper Die Welt. 2/5 191
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 29/05/2025Germany will finance several Ukrainian missile and drone capabilities, including the BARS and AN-196 Liutyi long-range strike systems (700-800 km and 1,000-2,000 km range, respectively), according to German newspaper Die Welt. 2/5 100
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 24/05/2025Hi all, after a short break last week, the next edition of my newsletter goes out tomorrow. I’ll take a closer look at the Golden Dome project and assess its feasibility and broader implications. You can sign up here to get it delivered straight to your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 3355
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/05/2025Hi all, I’ll be sending out my next newsletter tomorrow, focusing on NATO’s simultaneous need for forward defense while providing a deterrent force to Ukraine. There is a question if NATO can stem both. You can sign up here to receive it in your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 0395
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 26/04/2025Hi all, I'm returning from a multi-day conference, so I didn’t have time to put together a comprehensive post. But I still want to share some thoughts on this week’s events, which will be published tomorrow morning. You can sign up here. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 1/2 2845
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Hi all, I'll be sending out my next newsletter post tomorrow morning. The topic—unsurprisingly—is the Taurus Redux debate. I’ll make the case for why Taurus matters more in 2025 than at any previous point. Sign up here to receive it straight to your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 010114
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Ich habe diesen Post wieder gelöscht, da er bei einigen den Eindruck erweckt hat, ich wolle Journalistinnen und Journalisten vorschreiben, wie sie ihre Arbeit zu machen haben. Das war keinesfalls meine Absicht — im Gegenteil. 1/3 2301
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16/04/2025A perfect example of why heavier cruise missile systems like Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus remain indispensable for Ukraine in 2025. 1/3 216321
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 13/04/2025Hi all, I sent out my latest newsletter earlier today, providing some final words on Europe's self-imposed missile conundrum. It's obvious that Russia is preparing for the next missile war. Are we? You can access the post via the link in my bio, short summary below. 1/4 613450
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 12/04/2025Hi all, I'll be sending out my next newsletter tomorrow morning. I'll provide some final words on Europe's missile conundrum and the insane situation we find ourselves in. You can sign up via this link to receive it directly to your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 08413
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 05/04/2025Hi all, I'll be sending out my next newsletter post tomorrow morning at 8:00 a.m. CET. This edition focuses on the emergence of low-cost mini cruise missiles. You can sign up via the link in my bio to get it straight to your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 1649
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Good start to the trading day. Have you said thank you already? 316419
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 01/04/2025If you are a student or professional working on nuclear weapons policy and/or nuclear deterrence, or you want to learn more, I highly recommend applying! 1234
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 29/03/2025Hi all, I've had a busy week, so this week's Substack post will be rather brief. I'll focus on the methodology behind my figures on European missile production capacities, specifically for SCALP-EG and Taurus. You can sign up via this link: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 1/2 213025