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Franz Nowak

@franzno.bsky.social
101 followers 386 following 58 posts

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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Paper: www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/4zrzov...
www-cdn.anthropic.com
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
www.anthropic.com/institute/ec...
anthropic.com
Scenarios for our Economic Future
The Anthropic Economics Team models the effects of AI on the economy of 2030.
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
Wahlrecht.de @wahlrecht.de · 06/09/2026
18-Uhr-Prognosen von ARD und ZDF: AfD noch stärker als erwartet, absolute Mehrheit möglich. SPD und Grüne sicher drin, BSW auf der Kippe. Alle Prognosen und Hochrechnungen: www.wahlrecht.de/news/2026/la... #ltwst #ltwlsa
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
Wahlrecht.de @wahlrecht.de · 03/09/2026
Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt • Forschungsgruppe Wahlen / ZDF: AfD 41 % | CDU 23 % | DIE LINKE 11,5 % | SPD 8,5 % | GRÜNE 6 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 3 % ➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan... 🗓️ Landtagswahl: 6. September 2026 #ltwst #ltwlsa
Säulendiagramm der Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen für das ZDF
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
US nuclear negotiator Ernest Moniz: ‘Iran has the home-court advantage’ - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
US nuclear negotiator Ernest Moniz: ‘Iran has the home-court advantage’
The architect of the 2015 deal with Tehran on how to prevent a new Middle East arms race
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
How Britain could afford to pay for war - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
How Britain could afford to pay for war
Keynes’s 1940 financing plan contains lessons for the current government
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Sorry Marc, it’s just not that big - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Sorry Marc, it’s just not that big
Sizing up private credit
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
phenomenalworld.org/interviews/e...
phenomenalworld.org
Empire Suicide Watch | Herman Mark Schwartz
Examining the anatomy of US power
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
‘I’m fighting two wars. One against the Russians. And one inside myself.’ - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
‘I’m fighting two wars. One against the Russians. And one inside myself.’
A drone pilot and her all-women unit are waging a new kind of warfare on Ukraine’s eastern front
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Anthropic chief Dario Amodei: ‘I don’t want AI turned on our own people’ - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Anthropic chief Dario Amodei: ‘I don’t want AI turned on our own people’
The tech entrepreneur on Claude Mythos, repercussions from the Pentagon dispute — and his message for the super-rich
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
open.substack.com/pub/georgdie...
open.substack.com
Der Europäer
Zum Tod von Jürgen Habermas
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Inside one of the wildest days the oil market has ever seen - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
Inside one of the wildest days the oil market has ever seen
How one London trading floor coped with a record swing in prices
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
The pessimist who became a prophet - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
The pessimist who became a prophet
Michael Sandel was ignored by a generation of political optimists. Now he is searching for a way out of the mess he saw coming
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The Termite Thesis on the US dollar. Good, sober, realistic warning bell by Sobel and Kamin in @alphaville.ft.com Meanwhile the euro has its problems but on many metrics doesn’t look so bad, boasting the ECB as its financial fortress. The continent rearming will buttress geopolitical heft.
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Consumer confidence collapses #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Could Europe really leverage its $12.6tn pile of US assets? - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
Could Europe really leverage its $12.6tn pile of US assets?
NIIPing an outlandish idea in the bud
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
www.anthropic.com/research/ant...
anthropic.com
Anthropic Economic Index report: Economic primitives
This report introduces new metrics of AI usage to provide a rich portrait of interactions with Claude in November 2025, just prior to the release of Opus 4.5.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Can Europe still afford its generous state pensions? - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
Can Europe still afford its generous state pensions?
Rising numbers of older people across the continent are straining budgets and making for some difficult political decisions
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Can Venezuela settle its debts? - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
Can Venezuela settle its debts?
Nicolás Maduro’s removal has opened the door to a huge and complex debt workout
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
The new age of geoeconomics - on.ft.com/4ls9CRL via @FT
on.ft.com
The new age of geoeconomics
Donald Trump’s tariff threats are just part of a much wider shift. Gillian Tett explains why commerce is being subordinated to statecraft — and how we can adapt
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
This is Europe’s ‘global euro’ moment - on.ft.com/3TryxZ7 via @FT
on.ft.com
This is Europe’s ‘global euro’ moment
But greater international prominence will not happen by default — it must be earned
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
"How to slash government debt-to-GDP" - on.ft.com/4jFIM6N via @FT
on.ft.com
How to slash government debt-to-GDP
A cunning plan we don’t recommend
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
www.cfr.org/blog/dollars...
cfr.org
The Dollar’s Global Role and the Financing of the U.S. External Deficit
There is too much talk about the dollar’s role as a reserve currency and too little talk about expectations of exceptional returns. Reserve accumulation hasn’t driven the financing of the U.S. curren…
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
www.bondcap.com/report/pdf/T...
bondcap.com
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
open.substack.com/pub/construc...
open.substack.com
Can We Afford Large-scale Solar PV?
In the US solar energy has steadily risen in how much of our electricity it supplies.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
www.ft.com/content/5380...
ft.com
The delusion of private equity IRRs
The dumbest PE performance metric still bamboozles some investors
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
joincolossus.com/article/when...
joincolossus.com
When Will Robots Go Mainstream?
Positive Sum Research
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Can Europe finally fix its capital markets? - on.ft.com/3GRnkhs via @FT - great article!
on.ft.com
Can Europe finally fix its capital markets?
Stung by its lack of competitiveness, the EU is making a new push to create a deep financial market. Some investors believe this time could be different
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
TRUMP, ASKED IF RUSSIA IS PLAYING HIM, SAYS NO ONE IS PLAYING ME
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Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 13/04/2025
This was the predictable response and follows a long pattern of similar export restrictions/license requirements in response to previous trade actions. Nonetheless, we are not prepared for this. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/b...
nytimes.com
China Halts Critical Rare Earth Exports as Trade War Intensifies
Beijing has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
open.substack.com/pub/apricita...
open.substack.com
Charting the Largest Tariff Hike in Modern History
Measuring the Size & Impact of Trump's Newly-Imposed Global Tariffs
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
bruegel.org
The governance and funding of European rearmament
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
www.youtube.com/live/mK1xlAb...
youtube.com
The real turning point for Germany: Economic and security implications of the Merz chancellorship
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · 07/04/2025
Wheeee! on.ft.com/4i69pBi
on.ft.com
So much winning — in 15 charts
[FREE TO READ] The fallout from ‘Liquidation Day’
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Paul J Davies @pauljdavies.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
The warning of this wonky old chart today isn’t about trade but about America’s role in the world. Via @opinion.bloomberg.com Does Kindleberger’s Spiral Predict Economic Depressions? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Graphic of Kindleberger’s Spiral, which charts the monthly decline in imports for 75 countries from $3bn in January 1929 to $922mn by January 1933.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
substack.com/redirect/0ae...
substack.com
AI 2027
A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
New @budgetlab.bsky.social report about today's tariff announcement: • The April 2nd policy alone is the equivalent of an 11.5pp increase in the effective tariff rate. When combined with other US tariffs in 2025, we're at 22 1/2%, the highest rate since 1909. 1/7
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Alberto Nardelli @albertonardelli.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Most Trump tariff rates seem to be trade deficit with a particular country / US imports from that country, then divided by two. The USTR explanation to justify that result reminds me of school when you use a calculator but then have to “show your workings” ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
The realpolitik of Trump’s tariffs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
The realpolitik of Trump’s tariffs
The president’s trade policy is about power and security, not economics
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
anthropic.com/news/anthrop...
anthropic.com
Anthropic Economic Index: Insights from Claude 3.7 Sonnet
The second update from the Anthropic Economic Index
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Reposted by Franz Nowak
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Is Karthik’s guide to “how screwed are you” which now gets rightfully an official home in FT Alphaville. The ideological opposers to any form of deficit-spending failed to understand that Germany is finding its way to happy places.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
www.economist.com/interactive/...
economist.com
Archiv 1945
Wie The Economist Woche für Woche über das letzte Jahr des Zweiten Weltkriegs berichtete
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com
How Should We Think About the Economics of AI?
A conversation with Erik Brynjolfsson
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Can the dollar remain king of currencies? - on.ft.com/4bNWjqJ via @FT
on.ft.com
Can the dollar remain king of currencies?
The greenback’s global dominance was forged on trade, alliances and institutions — now that era is at risk of drawing to a close
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
The White House war on federal statistics - on.ft.com/42dsKeU via @FT Electricity consumption as a proxy for GDP growth/decrease when?
on.ft.com
The White House war on federal statistics
Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Redpoint Venture on the state of private and public technology markets. substack.com/redirect/39d...
substack.com
Redpoint Market Update (March 2025).pdf
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Germany’s Friedrich Merz agrees spending deal with Greens - on.ft.com/3FwuoQ0 via @FT
on.ft.com
Germany’s Friedrich Merz agrees spending deal with Greens
Deal paves way for the flagship defence and infrastructure package to be adopted by parliament next week
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord - on.ft.com/3FlitV0 via @FT
on.ft.com
Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord
Anatomy of a bad idea
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Jeff (Hot Type) Jarvis @jeffjarvis.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
In its continuing good reporting on the US (vs our broken press), @zeit.de finds a paper that aligns with Trump's actions, and a supposed "Mar-a-Lago Accord (accord with whom? Trump et al). Zeit warns it could collapse the world economy. www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
zeit.de
Donald Trump: Von wegen Willkür
Donald Trump und sein Team wollen mit dem Mar-a-Lago Accord das globale Handels- und Finanzsystem neu ordnen. Der Plan könnte die Weltwirtschaft abstürzen lassen.
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Franz Nowak @franzno.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202....
newyorker.com
What Made the Irish Famine So Deadly
The Great Hunger was a modern event, shaped by the belief that the poor are the authors of their own misery and that the market must be obeyed at all costs.
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