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Felix Schaumann

@felixschaumann.bsky.social
354 followers 400 following 24 posts

Interested in climate change and all the science around it - PhD candidate in climate economics at ETH Zürich. Mainly working with IAMs. also @felixschaumann@mas.to, @felixschaumann@twitter

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Reposted by Felix Schaumann
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
#EGU26 is around the corner, and I'm super excited to convene the first session dedicated only to AMOC changes & impacts 🌊🌍 Check out our fantastic line of oral and poster presentations, including our invited speaker @froeltho.bsky.social: www.egu26.eu/session/57485
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
🌊 Finally, there will be an #EGU26 session about the AMOC! Specifically, about the impacts of AMOC weakening, very broadly defined - from paleo to the future, form observations to modelling, from physics to economics, ... Please do submit - Looking forward to a great session 😊 More details 👇
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Bartosz Bartkowski @bartoszbartk.com · 12/12/2025
📣The DFG research training group ECO-N at @unileipzig.bsky.social has just announced 14 new PhD🎓 vacancies within its 2nd cohort, on topics incl clean air💨, climate change🌀, soil biodiv🪱 and forests🌳. More info on ECO-N: www.eco-n.org Vacancy announcement: uni-leipzig.b-ite.careers/jobposting/9...
eco-n.org
Universität Leipzig: Economics of Connected Natural Commons
The Research Training Group ECO-N trains a new generation of sustainability researchers to develop both an excellent command of quantitative research methods for understanding specific natural or human-made commons and adopt a systemic perspective on connected natural commons.
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Planning to attend #EGU26? Interested in the impacts of AMOC weakening? New session alert! 🚨🌊🧪 ITS2.5/CL0.5: "AMOC impacts: physical, biogeochemical, and societal" Check out our interdisciplinary session description & submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Poster advertising EGU26 session ITS2.5/CL0.5, titled "AMOC impacts: Physical, Biogeochemical, and Societal"
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Is "overshoot" replacing "tipping points" in the climate discourse? I wrote a short blog post exploring this idea. Bottom line: it's all about urgency and irreversibility, but overshoot can circumvent some problems that the tipping points framing has. Read the full post here: s.gwdg.de/wRWft8
climatematters.blogs.uni-hamburg.de
Is Climate Overshoot the New Tipping Points? – Climate Matters
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a climate scientist postdoc to join my team at Oxford working on a project on climate change and health until Feb 2028. For more details: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... 📅 Apply by 14 May here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
linkedin.com
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a postdoc to join my team at the… | Rupert Stuart-Smith
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a postdoc to join my team at the University of Oxford, working on a Wellcome Trust-funded project on climate change and health. The post will run until February 2028....
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Max-Planck-Gesellschaft @maxplanck.de · 13/03/2025
[Video] AMOC-Schwächung könnte Billionen kosten. Die #AMOC-Abschwächung verringert die #CO₂-Aufnahme, verstärkt die Erderwärmung & erhöht die Kosten - so die neue Studie von @felixschaumann.bsky.social & @edualastrue.bsky.social (MPI für Meteorologie). Carolin Riethmüller fasst für Euch zusammen➡️🔗
youtu.be
Billionen Kosten durch schwächere Meeresströmung | Wissen Was News
YouTube video by MaxPlanckSociety
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Thanks a lot! We look at the global ocean, so we didn't check whether AABW might counteract this, but the net effect is to recuce carbon uptake. The main difference to LGM studies is that we have emissions scenarios, so the downwelling water is relatively more carbon-rich than the upwelling water.
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Reposted by Felix Schaumann
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 03/03/2025
Climate change could weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which would cool the Northern Hemisphere. A weaker AMOC could also diminish ocean carbon uptake, thus increasing the social cost of carbon. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Overview of the modeling approach. (A) The Max Planck Institute Earth System Model is used to simulate climate states with an artificially weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). (B) The resulting changes in annual ocean carbon storage are then analyzed as a function of the simulated AMOC. (C) The strength of the AMOC carbon feedback is estimated until 2100. (D) The economic impact of these projected changes is then analyzed.
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Annie Leymarie @annieleymarie.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Economic impact studies tend to find a weaker AMOC globally beneficial, as lower temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere would offset some global warming & associated economic damages - but new paper shows this ignores reduced C uptake by oceans & Social Cost of Carbon. See bsky.app/profile/feli...
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DIE ZEIT @zeit.de · 26/02/2025
Der Kollaps einer Meeresströmung könnte Europa extrem kalte Winter wie in Kanada bringen, warnten Forschende zuletzt. Unwahrscheinlich, sagt eine neue Studie. Was stimmt?
zeit.de
AMOC: Eine kleine Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass etwas sehr Schlimmes passiert
Der Kollaps einer Meeresströmung könnte Europa extrem kalte Winter wie in Kanada bringen, warnten Forschende zuletzt. Unwahrscheinlich, sagt eine neue Studie. Was stimmt?
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Moritz Drupp @moritzdrupp.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Check out this great paper by @felixschaumann.bsky.social with @edualastrue.bsky.social out now in @pnas.org that integrates climate science with climate economics to study the social cost of carbon implications of reduced AMOC weakening. Super impressive work for a first PhD chapter👇
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
thanks!
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ESRAH University of Hamburg @esrah.uni-hamburg.de · 25/02/2025
💰 Weaker ocean circulation may cost trillions A new study by @felixschaumann.bsky.social and @edualastrue.bsky.social in @pnas.org reveals that a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to costs of several trillion euros. #CLICCS #climate #ocean @uni-hamburg.de
buff.ly
Weaker ocean current could cost trillions
Faculties
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Andy Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ revkin.substack.com @revkin.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
No cheers for warming slowdown from potential weakening of AMOC given carbon drawdown impact. New study.
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Meertext @meertext.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Die Abschwächung der #AMOC bietet neben den bereits oft prognostizierten Abkühlungseffekten für Nordeuropa weitere spannende Skills: Sie wird wohl auch die CO2-Aufnahmekapazität des Nordatlantiks verringern. #Klimakrise #Nordatlantik #Ozean #Ozeanographie
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[11/11] Of interest? @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org @klimareporter.bsky.social @fionaharvey.bsky.social @jonathan-watts.bsky.social @dpcarrington.bsky.social @muellerjung.bsky.social @sventitz.bsky.social @jonaswaack.bsky.social @fischblog.bsky.social @revkin.bsky.social
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[10/11] 📖 If you are still curious, check out the news items by the CEN research center @cenunihh.bsky.social of the University of Hamburg @uni-hamburg.de and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (mas.to/@MPI_Meteo@w...).
mas.to
mas.to
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[9/11] Where to go from here? With one more impact channel of AMOC weakening - probably not the most relevant - the picture already changes quite a bit. A lot of other impacts remain, and we should research them if we want to properly understand the risks that are associated with a changing AMOC.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[8/11] The SCC is raised by about 1% because of the AMOC carbon feedback (right panel). This is of similar magnitude, but of opposite sign, to the previous economic impact estimates of AMOC weakening (left panel):
Relative SCC changes due to AMOC temperature effects and AMOC carbon effects in comparison.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[7/11] What do we find? Economic impacts Looking at the additional (Burke) economic damages induced by this feedback, we estimate numbers in the range of trillion US dollars, cumulated over this century. But the more important economic indicator is the social cost of carbon (SCC).
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[6/11] But the cumulative effect for this century is - depending on the projection of AMOC strength - between 4 and 12 PgC. For context: Every year we emit around 10 PgC, so by 2100, AMOC weakening could reduce ocean storage by up to a full year of current emissions to the atmosphere.
CMPI6 projections of AMOC strength and the associated ocean carbon storage reductions in 2100.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[5/11] What do we find? Carbon cycle impacts We find that, in a year with a 1 Sv weaker AMOC, 0.023 PgC less will flow into the ocean. That doesn't sound like much, maybe 0.2% of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Scatter plot of carbon flux changes over AMOC strength with a linear regression line.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[4/11] How do we do it? Our methods in a cartoon: a) freshwater hosing in a biogeochemically-only coupled ESM b) yearly carbon flux changes as a function of yearly AMOC strength c) cumulative carbon flux reductions in the 21st century following CMIP6 AMOC projections d) changes in SCC estimates
Overview of our methodology in 4 steps.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[3/11] But what about all the other climate impacts that AMOC weakening would have, beyond just surface temperatures? They have yet to be integrated into economic impact assessments, and we start by looking at the carbon cycle.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
[2/11] Why is this relevant? Existing economic impact estimates deem AMOC weakening globally beneficial. Why? Because a weaker AMOC would reduce temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and thereby locally offset parts of global warming and the associated economic damages.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
🚨 First PhD paper in @pnas.org 🥳 🌊 @edualastrue.bsky.social and I looked at how much less CO2 will be taken up by the ocean if the #AMOC weakens - and how this reduced ocean carbon uptake affects the social cost of CO2 emissions. 📝 Read the paper here: doi.org/10.1073/pnas... 🧵 A thread [1/11]
doi.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Excited to announce a new @pnas.org publication on the Social Cost of Carbon. We integrate evidence from the literature and expert survey to provide an SCC distribution inclusive of both parametric and structural uncertainties. Our mean 2020 value is $283 per ton CO2 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties | PNAS
Estimating the cost to society from a ton of CO2—termed the social cost of carbon (SCC)—requires connecting a model of the climate system with a re...
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Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 03/12/2024
In a new interdisciplinary Nature Climate Change Perspective paper, led by me, @lisgilmore and Rachael Shwom, we offer a critical perspective on #climate and social “tipping points.” 🎁: rdcu.be/d2gBC 🧵
rdcu.be
‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action
Nature Climate Change - The tipping points framing is widely used in climate discussions but receives mixed feedback. This Perspective critiques it for oversimplifying the complexities of natural...
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 03/12/2024
The model calibration paper for fair is now published in Geoscientific Model Development! 🎉 TLDR: how do we constrain a highly parameterised model to observational and assessed constrained ranges, with uncertainty? gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
gmd.copernicus.org
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
Abstract. Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged as critical tools for the analysis of climate policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where the parameters a...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
There are so many cool starter packs around here 💙 But I have not seen yet any specifically on the AMOC, so I decided to create one now 🌊 Let me know if you want to be included too! #AMOC #Atlantic #OceanCirculation go.bsky.app/JxFDh6b
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Reto Knutti @retoknutti.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Softening the definition of Net Zero won’t stop global warming. As authors of the 2009 “Net Zero Papers” we call on countries and companies to recognise the need for Geological Net Zero, balancing flows of carbon into and out of the Earth’s crust. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Countries could use nature to ‘cheat’ on net zero targets, scientists warn
By relying on natural carbon sinks such as forests and peatlands to offset emissions, governments can appear closer to goals than they actually are
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 19/08/2024
go.bsky.app/7PReUyF
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 19/08/2024
#AcademicSky Maybe dealing with GPTs hallucinating papers should give us a reason to update our 20th century approaches to article referencing. Can't we just use the DOI when writing papers and stop pretending that anybody is going to go to a physical library to find a specific journal volume?
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 18/08/2024
Thanks! I work at the intersection of climate science and economics; currently mostly on the carbon cycle effects of AMOC slowdown, so would be great to be added :)
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Brian Prest @bprest.bsky.social · 15/08/2024
New article published today at Science Policy Forum, joint with co-authors Lisa Rennels, Frank Errickson, and David Anthoff www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Equity weighting increases the social cost of carbon
New government guidelines could transform benefit-cost analysis of US climate policy
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 15/08/2024
congrats, so good to see it materializing! looking forward to it finally decorating my office shelf :)
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/08/2024
Starting 250 years ago, we began putting lots of carbon that was buried underground for millions of years into the atmosphere. All in all we’ve emitted nearly 2 trillion tons of CO2 from fossil fuels, which is more than the total mass of the biosphere or all human structures:
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 12/08/2024
On The Climate Brink, I explain the problems with this graphic. In fact, climate models do an excellent job simulating the climate. www.theclimatebrink....
graphic from Donald Trump that shows that climate models are overestimating warming in the summertime central US.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 14/04/2024
Interested in economic effects of AMOC weakening? Join us tomorrow afternoon in #EGU24 session CL3.2.3 to hear about how the AMOC affects the carbon cycle and through that the social cost of carbon! Also if you just want to hang out and talk climate economics, anytime! :)
title slide of our talk "flipping the cost of tipping? economic impacts of reduced AMOC carbon drawdown"
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 11/12/2023
Stoked to be at my first AGU next week! Check out my talk on Thursday on economic assessment of AMOC changes, and let me know if you wanna grab a coffee and talk science ☕🤓 #AGU23
Reduced AMOC Carbon Drawdown and its Effect on the Social Cost of Carbon — slide advertising talk at AGU23
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 17/11/2023
EGU 2024 session announcement: Techniques and advances in climate economics, econometrics and integrated assessment modelling meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio... egu24.eu
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ESRAH University of Hamburg @esrah.uni-hamburg.de · 20/11/2023
Follow the water movement along the AMOC with a stunning new visualization by Felicia Brisc and Nuno Serra from CEN @uni-hamburg.de. Headphones on 🎧! ➡️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9ca...
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 17/11/2023
Stimmt, die meisten gehen davon aus, dass die Erwärmung mehr oder weniger direkt aufhört, sobald die Emissionen aufhören. Aber das ist v.a. deswegen weil die natürlichen Senken weiter wirken, d.h. die Konzentration sinkt. Insofern ist der Effekt der Konzentration schon ein bisschen zeitverzögert.
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Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 13/11/2023
very interesting, thanks! I'm must admit I am a little uneasy, though, with the language of "confirmation" in the context of model-based research, as that's a very loaded term: doi.org/10.1126/scie... doi.org/10.1111/j.14... doi.org/10.1007/978-...
doi.org
Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences
Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirm...
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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 12/11/2023
This survey from 2009 is really a wild read. Most climate scientists surveyed thought 4-5C by end of century was the most likely, and that 2C was close to impossible to achieve. Imagine the results if you took this exact survey again today.... www.theguardian.com/environment/...
World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree
This article is more than 14 years old
Guardian poll reveals almost nine out of 10 climate experts do not believe current political efforts will keep warming below 2C
David Adam, environment correspondent
Tue 14 Apr 2009 01.01 CEST
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Almost nine out of 10 climate scientists do not believe political efforts to restrict global warming to 2C will succeed, a Guardian poll reveals today. An average rise of 4-5C by the end of this century is more likely, they say, given soaring carbon emissions and political constraints.

Such a change would disrupt food and water supplies, exterminate thousands of species of plants and animals and trigger massive sea level rises that would swamp the homes of hundreds of millions of people.

The poll of those who follow global warming most closely exposes a widening gulf between political rhetoric and scientific opinions on climate change. While policymakers and campaigners focus on the 2C
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undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
"Once we open the door to consider catastrophic change, a whole new debate is engaged...If we cannot reliably judge how potential geophysical changes will affect civilization, can we use the plain vanilla cost-benefit analysis (or even the Haagen Dazs variety in dynamic optimization models)?"
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 30/10/2023
Today, our paper updating the amount of carbon we can release before breaching the Paris agreement temperature targets has been released into the world! Read it www.nature.com/articles/s41..., about it here: scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2023/10/30/c...
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 27/10/2023
NEW RESEARCH: Overall mining actually DECREASES substantially even when just accounting for coal. Mass of minerals for energy transition technologies is a fraction of mass of coal produced in current fossil-dominated energy system. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 23/10/2023
This year's record-setting Canadian fires burned >3 times as much carbon as all of Canada's annual fossil fuel use. Canadian fossil fuel emissions (2021): 545 MtCO₂ Canadian wildfire emissions (typical year): 290 MtCO₂ Canadian wildfire in 2023 (CAMS estimate): 1,740 MtCO₂
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