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felixhormig.bsky.social

@felixhormig.bsky.social
96 followers 231 following 11 posts

Political Science | MIDEM | TU Dresden | polarization | conspiracy beliefs | far-right || Music

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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
11/ Apparently, I forgot the most important thing for an empirical scientist: the data! 😅 ℹ️ For those interested in methods, we used data from @gles.bsky.social (Profil Wave A5), which was in the field at the time of the coalition collapse. This allowed us to analyze patterns around this event.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
10/ 📖 And to the scholars whose work we build on: @markuswagner.bsky.social, @eelcoharteveld.bsky.social @ivobantel.bsky.social, @markuskollberg.bsky.social, @jochemvanagt.bsky.social, @noamgidron.bsky.social
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
9/ A big thank you also to everyone who read the drafts and gave feedback: @manesweisskircher.bsky.social , @lknochelmann.bsky.social , @lucaskohler.bsky.social , @conradziller.bsky.social , and to all participants at @dvpw.bsky.social conference from “AK Wahlen & politische Einstellungen”.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
8/ The article is part of the Special Issue "The 2025 German Federal Election" in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. 🙏 Big thanks to the Editors: @nilssteiner.bsky.social , @conradziller.bsky.social and @ackermannk.bsky.social To the SI: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...
sciencedirect.com
Electoral Studies | The 2025 German Federal Election: Fundamental Shifts in Challenging Times | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier
The 2025 German federal election reflected significant changes in the political landscape, shaped by economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and security concerns. Marked by high voter turnout, a weakened political center, and notable shifts in party strength – including gains by the AfD and losses for the FDP – it signals a departure from previous electoral patterns. This Special Issue examines key developments that not only pertain to this specific election but also reflect broader trends in other Western democracies, such as increasing volatility in voting behavior, the rise of the populist radical right, the political behavior of young voters, polarization, and the role of social media in campaigning.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
7/ The effect is concentrated among supporters of left-wing parties. Namely, supporters of DIE LINKE 🔴 and Die Grünen 🟢.
Dots represent point estimates, vertical lines show 95 percent confidence intervals. There is a positive effect for supporters of DIE LINKE and Die Grünen; that means, after the coalition collapse, these supporters dislike more.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
6/ But what happens if we dig deeper? 🔎 Interesting twist: that hostility is targeted. It rises sharply toward the party publicly blamed for the breakdown (FDP 🟡), and toward anti-establishment parties. Other parties stay stable.
Dots represent point estimates, vertical lines show 95 percent confidence intervals. There is a positive effect for FDP, BSW and AfD; that means, after the coalition collapse, these parties are more disliked.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
5/ 📈 Main finding: affective polarization rises ↗️ significantly after the collapse - almost entirely through rising hostility toward out-parties, not more love for the in-party.
Dots represent point estimates, thin horizontal lines show 95 percent confidence intervals; thick horizontal lines show 90 percent confidence intervals.
The plot visualises the significant effects on affective polarization and out-party hostility.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
4/ 🔬 To test this, we use the abrupt collapse of the coalition as a natural experiment (Unexpected Event during Survey Design), comparing respondents interviewed just before vs. just after the breakup.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
3/ 💡 Our argument: coalition collapse is associated with rising affective polarization, driven by a dynamic of scapegoating and blame-attribution. This shows up as greater out-party hostility 🔥 - not stronger in-party favorability.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
2/ 📚 A growing body of work shows that forming and maintaining a coalition tends to reduce affective polarization between coalition partners. But what happens when coalitions fall apart? We know far less.
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felixhormig.bsky.social @felixhormig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Remember the collapse of Germany's "traffic light" coalition in November 2024? Ever wondered how this affects citizens' attitudes? Look no further: @cyrillotteni.bsky.social and I got you covered in our new article, out now in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🧵 📄 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Screenshot of the title page of Electoral Studies, with abstract.
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Reposted by @felixhormig.bsky.social
LSE European Politics @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
How conspiracy theories entered the mainstream in Spain ✍ @josejavierolivas.bsky.social @maikherold.bsky.social & Felix Hormig @forum-midem.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
How conspiracy theories entered the mainstream in Spain
Conspiracy theories have become mainstream in Spain, with actors on both left and right adopting conspiracy narratives for short-term political advantage.
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Reposted by @felixhormig.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
open.substack.com
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
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Reposted by @felixhormig.bsky.social
Forum MIDEM @forum-midem.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
📢 Call for Papers! MIDEM invites early career researchers to join the workshop “Polarized Democracies: New Lines of Division in Europe” (11–12 June 2026, Dresden). Submit your abstract by 20 Jan 2026. All Details below 👇 #CfP #PoliticalScience #Polarization #Democracy @tudresden.bsky.social
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Reposted by @felixhormig.bsky.social
Cyrill Otteni @cyrillotteni.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
📢𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Excited to share our new article (with maikherold.bsky.social‬) in German Politics: "𝐈𝐝𝐞𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 ‘𝐁ü𝐧𝐝𝐧𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐡𝐫𝐚 𝐖𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐤𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐭’ (𝐁𝐒𝐖) 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲" shorturl.at/WV2pM
https://maikherold.bsky.social‬
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