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fabolange.bsky.social

@fabolange.bsky.social
1K followers 703 following 283 posts
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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
1/4 This was a lot of fun to write and now to see published! We digitised information on German collective bargaining negotiations (CBNs) - both initial trade union demands and final outcomes - going back to the early 1990s. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
You Can't Always Get What You Want? Collective Bargaining Demands and Outcomes
Trade union demands are a key input for collective bargaining negotiations (CBNs). However, there is little quantitative evidence on these demands and how they shape CBN outcomes. We digitize novel d...
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Has happened, but sometimes I still love it
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yes, the FBI would only need ppl in the Dem parts of the 17th, but it split in 2024 (GOP for Congress, but Harris for POTUS), and as the maps here show (you have to eye-ball the 17th borders onto the voting map), a lot of the polling places will be in blue areas. That's one race. Just one.
Map of the 17thPrecinct-level map from the NYT, without the NY17 borders drawn in, but including all of the 17th.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Every incident, Germany should transfer 25 Taurus
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
8 frankfurter, 23 oder jünger auf dem feld.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
For somebody so fundamental to the notion of comparative advantage, there is surprisingly little specialization.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Maluze macht das auch gut, sehr ruhig und unaufgeregt, scheint aber auch recht schnell zu sein. #sge
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Nach vorne ist mehr Passscharfe und Geschwindigkeit drin, als ich in der ganzen letzten Rückrunde. Kann so weitergehen. Hinten, mal gucken.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Das muss ja wohl irgendein Rekord sein. 2 tore in so kurzer Zeit von einem Spieler? #SGE
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Un, jetzt?
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Maybe markets are wrong - but is the basic factual point he makes correct? Do the market data actually suggest this about market expectations?
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Q: Miran says that inflation swaps suggest that inflation expectations are on fed target and that term premium has not increased. So, his argument (if I understand correctly) is that "the market" has not lost confidence in in US debt nor in the Federal reserve to constrain inflation.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Anybody with informed opinions on this piece by Miran in the FT? Particularly, about whether the conclusions drawn from the inflation swaps market and the term premium hold up to scrutiny? Would love to hear from those with some real expertise. #econ #finance giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Don’t draw the wrong conclusion from Treasury yields
Investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Most authors are too wordy
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
It was more than bad enough how many institutions caved to the stupid "Gulf of America" stuff, in the early weeks when Trump somehow had an image of being all-powerful. Any institution that *now* adopts "Lake of America" is being Trumpist on purpose, with all that implies.
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Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
www.socialsciences.ucsb.edu/news/ucsb-ec...
socialsciences.ucsb.edu
UCSB Economist Shelly Lundberg Honored with Mincer Award, Releases Book on Gender Economics | Division of Social Sciences
Renowned economist and demographer Shelly Lundberg, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Leonard Broom Professor of Demography at UC Santa Barbara, has been named a recipient of the prestigious 20...
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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Germany's richest man, Klaus-Michael #Kühne, has passed away aged 89. He had no children. His assets will now be owned by his foundation, making it over night one of the biggest in Europe.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
In 2019, Canada implemented a similar reform across the Rest of Canada. Soon the data will be available to replicate again, now using this reform - and the sample will be about 4 times larger, so the precision should increase. 8/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
We also find a positive effect, but our point estimates are smaller (3-6pp). (We find a similar sized effect from mother's co-workers.) Unfortunately, our estimates are imprecise: the 95%-CI covers both the zero and the DLM estimate. 7/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
DLM reported that having a co-worker take paternity leave raises a father's own probability of taking leave by 11 percentage point. 6/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Why replicate? Because replications follow the design of the original study, they are not subject to p-hacking. And, if journals publish them regardless of outcome (ty CJE), they help fight publication bias. Independent estimates using the same method build more trust than any single paper can. 5/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
We replicate DLM's design using Quebec's 2006 parental leave reform which mirrors the Norwegian one closely: both carved out several weeks of leave reserved exclusively for the second parent (in practice, almost always the father), with a sharp date-of-birth eligibility cutoff. 4/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Dahl, Løken & Mogstad (2014, AER) use Norway's 1993 leave reform and a birth-date RDD using the peer father's kid to isolate causal peer effects. If a co-worker takes leave because his child was born right after the cut-off, does this make his co-workers more likely to take leave themselves? 3/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Why does this matter? Gendered norms are a big reason fathers take way less leave than mothers. Norms spread through peers. But proving peers causally affect shape each other's choices is hard - for all the reasons familiar from the peer effects literature. 2/8
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Thankful to see my paper with Yaya Diallo out online at the Canadian Journal of Economics! 🎉 "Peer effects at work on parental leave: Why is Papa not more involved?" doi.org/10.1111/caje... As the title says, we study peer effects in paternity leave-taking. 🧵1/8
doi.org
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852dude @852dude.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Bro. People are cool as fuck.
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Dejan Mihajlović @mihajlovicfreiburg.com · 13/08/2026
Das war übrigens gestern Abend in Vrbas (einer ca. 25k-Stadt). Zurzeit wird an zahlreichen Orten in #Serbien (zum Jahrestag) an die Gewalt der Schlägertruppen des Vučić-Regimes und Polizei gegen die Zivilgesellschaft (darunter auch das unvergesslich brutale Vorgehen gegen Jugendliche) erinnert. 1/x
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
We are nowhere near hyperinflation. So, yes I think reading too mich into Weimar is a mistake. I think the op would agree with that.
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Dustin @dustinn.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Modern governments and central banks also have far more tools and sophistication to battle inflation. I think reading too much into Weimar can obscure that we just have more choice in these matters now
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
and finally finished off by mass unemployment.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I don't subscribe to this reading. The hyperinflationary period contributed to delegitimizing Weimar just as mass unemployment did. My understanding is that Weimar was weak to begin with because it got saddled with the responsibility to end the war. It then was severely wounded by hyperinflation,
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Montreal: please get serious about the trash. Plastic trash bags on our sidewalks twice a week is dumb
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Super Shoe @shoe.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
President Toddler
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
This is excellent. Read it!
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
*cool
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Ciil yes, but rivers in North America dont just flow in the US. Would be nice to see St lawrence in this
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The wallcreeper, European bee-eater, white stork, avocet, and northern gannet are all regular European species, and the common kingfisher is widespread across most of Europe. And, as I understand it, they were chosen to represent different river and coast habitats that are represented with them.
politico.eu
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Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 21/07/2026
1/ Trump signed 50% tariffs on Canada today under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Worth walking through the legal mechanics, the USMCA leverage play behind it, and what it costs.
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Professa Murray @kalimurray.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
The fact that VP JD Vance and Richard Grenell went to Romania—on behalf of the Trump Administration— to advocate for Andrew and Tristan Tate, who by all accounts, were rapists running a coercive sex ring, then permitted them to come to Florida, should be a crazy, crazy scandal.
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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
This business of being ruled by dead white males is becoming disturbingly literal.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Does this include transits without transponders on?
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
That is my understanding too. The productivity growth in texh drives prices in the goods that the US specializes down. So, fixed price comparisons over time overstate the divergence in living standard. Cant get by the payeall myself, so might be wrong
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Bad emperors in Rome were condmned after their death to have their memories erased, inscriptions had their names chiseled out, statues toppelded, etc... .
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SK Winnicki, PhD 🏳️‍⚧️ @skwinnicki.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Both totally unnecessary and extremely funny that the Guardian has an interactive graphic for you to change the color of the US flag's blue to the color of the Reflecting Pool from 8 to 19 June and counting
Screenshot of the article's graphic, showing color swatches derived from the Earthcam archive, illustration the color of the reflecting pool calibrated against satellite imagery, from 8 June to 19 June 2026. I chose yesterday, 19 June, so it rendered the US American flag with a green hue instead of blue.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Etwas albern, die Kritik. Ein Fussballtrikot dem Prãsidenten der ausrichtenden Nation zu schenken ist so normal, normaler geht nicht.
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In the US, social-democratic policies have routinely been decried as "socialist." So, when Americans say that they rate socialism highly, maybe many of them actually refer to Social Democracy?
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fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
How is SpaceX planning to physically maintain the space-based data centers? Will they have to fly up astronauts? Or, do they believe the centers to be so reliable so as not to require maintenance?
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Matt Barnum @mattbarnum.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
To the extent "Gen Z" thinks this — and such broad generalizations are often dubious — it partially reflects a relentless and misleading media narrative that in recent years has ignored the actual data here.
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Jan Sauermann @jansauermann.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Call for papers for the 29th Colloquium on Personnel Economics (COPE) in March 2027 in Tokyo with @raffasadun.bsky.social Peter Kuhn and Jie Gong as keynotes! Submission deadline: September 1 personneleconomics.eu/cope2027/
Call for Papers for COPE 2027 in Tokyo
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