Tarmo Tanilsoo
@es5nhc.ee
654 followers 354 following 46K posts
Weather geek working for Kachelmann Group and trying to achieve his goals despite having Aspergers. Opinions are mine only. JLPT N2. He/Him P.S. As I've imported also my Twitter archive, please check the post timestamp if you found me in the search.
![[NHC forecast discussion screenshot]
Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026
Polo is in the midst of a significant rapid intensification
episode. Satellite images indicate a developing central dense
overcast with very deep convection in the core. Additionally,
microwave images indicate that a small eye has formed beneath the
overcast with hints of a banded eyewall. The initial intensity
is set to 55 kt, consistent with the latest TAFB classification,
and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to provide a better
look at the intensity.
Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next
day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and
untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful
mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by
showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification
index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them.
The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very
aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus
aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for
intensification. Polo is expected to be a small but very dangerous
hurricane by tomorrow and beyond.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tehzqnmpivodcl4c7xdekwu3/bafkreickdnz5jibg4tys2b5pqtdihzrg4z2g4gtyvgp7kx6s6q5fvf74eq)
