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Elliott Christensen

@elliott-xtensen.bsky.social
102 followers 133 following 49 posts

Senior economist, Resolution Foundation.

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Reposted by Elliott Christensen
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Rumours Healey will lean into greater use of public financial institutions as a way to boost investment. Affectionately known as PuFins this raises a question: which was the better leaving gift for Elliott Christensen - a Chancellor listening to his report or a resolution foundation cuddly puffin?
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I have a new report out today with @simonpittaway.bsky.social on Britain's productivity revival – which is real, if it you measure it properly. And it isn’t being driven by the economy shedding low-paid jobs. 🧵
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
0.4%. That is the headline figure for the UK economy in the second quarter of this year. While not quite as strong as last quarter (0.6%), growth was stronger than the Bank of England forecast at 0.3%.
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Parth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
💡I've published a spotlight today, in collaboration with @cpc-cg.bsky.social, on how time spent #alone has changed by #age over the last decade & what it means for #wellbeing. @resolutionfoundation.org Read here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... And a thread with some findings ⬇️
resolutionfoundation.org
All by myself • Resolution Foundation
Time spent alone has risen up the public and political agenda, reflected in debates about the ‘relationship recession’, social media use and more working from home. [1]  But these underlying societal ...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Welcome - and slightly larger than expected - fall in UK CPI inflation in June to 2.6% (2.8 in May). But, with conflict in the Middle East resuming, this is likely to prove short lived, meaning the government is right to focus on cost of living pressures. Thread to follow...
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Zachary Leather @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org · 22/07/2026
Today Burnham announced the return of the £2 bus fare cap, a much loved policy of previous Governments that was raised to £3 by Reeves two years ago. But who will benefit? [THREAD]
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
More can be found Resolution Foundation’s new report, The great escape, on how Britain fell into a two-decade fiscal funk and what the new PM and Chancellor need to do to get the public finances back on firmer ground: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
The great escape • Resolution Foundation
This report is the first in a series on the size and shape of the state, and how the public finances can be better managed in an era of low growth and high uncertainty. It diagnoses how Britain fell i...
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
So a 'fresh start' government shouldn't be lulled by today’s better data. Instead the government should use the opportunity to focus on putting the public finances on a firmer footing, ensuring any new spending is fully funded from day one.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
That would be on a par with the wafer-thin margin Rachel Reeves left herself after her first Budget – and roughly a third of the average headroom since 2010. As Reeves found, it leaves almost no room for manoeuvre, particularly with the conflict still escalating.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Looking ahead, re-intensifying conflict in the Middle East is likely to have cut the Chancellor's margin against the fiscal rules from £23.6bn at the Spring Forecast to just £10bn.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Under the bonnet, receipts are beating forecast — £2.4bn above so far this year. But spending is running ahead by even more at £3.6bn, so the overshoot is spending-led, not a revenue problem. Another reason not to bank one good month.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Not only was June better than expected, but borrowing in April and May were revised down nearly £5bn. This is good news but it’s still £2.7bn above the pre-war forecast for the year to date.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
The public sector borrowed £16.0bn in June 2026, down from £23.9 billion a year ago. A large component of this fall was lower inflation-linked debt interest costs, which fell £5.3 billion from £17.1 billion last year to £11.8 billion in June.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Some good news for new Chancellor John Healy: June borrowing came in at £16.0bn — £0.3bn below the OBR forecast and £7.9bn below a year ago. Still public finance challenges loom large. Short thread. 🧵
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
That's the investment case — but the briefing covers plenty more: how the PuFins landscape fits together, the fiscal accounting that makes it possible, and why Burnham should resist letting PuFins issue their own bonds. Full briefing 👉 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Much ado about PuFins • Resolution Foundation
Britain's public financial institutions – the 'PuFins' – have quietly grown into a £200 billion investment arm of the state. This briefing note maps the landscape and shows how the Burnham Government ...
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
And that cost comes *before* the returns. These are assets, not spending — over the long run their expected returns should match or exceed the interest cost. The NWF already earned £70m on its loans last year. A rare chance to raise investment while staying inside the fiscal rules.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
So our call: put extra capital into the NWF first. Match the 0.27% of GDP the EIB used to invest by 2030-31, and you'd boost NWF investment by nearly £16bn over five years — at a maximum cost of ~£400m a year in debt interest after three years.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Why now? The Government’s Oct 2024 fiscal rules switch to targeting Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities gives the assets PuFins acquire more favourable treatment than conventional capital spending — making them a key channel for lifting investment without breaching the fiscal rules.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Even after the recent expansion, the NWF is on track to invest 70 per cent less over the next five years to 2030-31 than if the EIB's pre-referendum scale had applied. That's a cumulative real shortfall of ~£30bn.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The bigger picture: the NWF is still a much smaller investor than the European Investment Bank it effectively replaces. In the decade since the 2016 referendum, the UK has lost out on £70bn of investment in real terms.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The NWF received a £5.8 billion boost to its financial capacity and is stepping up: annual investment is set to rise by roughly four-fifths, from around £1.5bn a year under the old UK Infrastructure Bank to about £2.6bn. But the risk is it plateaus there — staying under 0.1% of GDP.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
🧵 New RF briefing on the UK's "PuFins" — the public financial institutions that have quietly grown into a ~£200bn investment arm of the state. Can they help PM Andy Burnham build a higher-investment economy within the fiscal rules? Our answer starts with the National Wealth Fund 👇
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Lalitha Try @lalithatry.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
New substack from me and @parthpandya.bsky.social, in which we remind you all that we are in our 20s (and talk about what's going on with young peoples' living standards) resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/whether-or...
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
Whether or not football ‘comes home,’ the Zoomers never left
Parth Pandya and Lalitha Try
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Parth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
We @lalithatry.bsky.social @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social @charliemccurdy.bsky.social @jamietg.bsky.social have published a report (funded by @cpc-cg.bsky.social) on today’s under-30s’ living standards & what policymakers should do. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... 👇 🧵with key findings.
resolutionfoundation.org
They’re coming home • Resolution Foundation
Given Britain’s resurgent ‘NEET’ problem, a rise of living with parents, and intensified political debate on the prospects of young people, this briefing note provides an assessment of the living stan...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 25/06/2026
📢 New research out today Gen Z have higher incomes than their millennial predecessors and are staying longer at the ‘Hotel of Mum and Dad’. Read the full report, funded by @cpc-cg.bsky.social 👇️ buff.ly/k30vVVD
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Lalitha Try, Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:
‘’Gen Z are earning more in their early careers than their much-maligned millennial counterparts, giving them a living standards boost.’’
‘’But they are far more likely to still live with parents, with almost two-thirds of those aged 20 to 24 now calling Hotel Mum and Dad home. Impracticably high rents and house prices have driven this boom.’
“With around one-third of recent first-time buyers now receiving familial help, the Government should consider a targeted Starter Deposit Scheme to help those young people without access to the Bank of Mum and Dad onto the housing ladder.’’
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Despite borrowing costs (10 year gilt yields) falling recently as conflict has eased - down from 5.2% in May to 4.8% this week, they remain high versus the OBR’s last forecast, suggesting pressures remain on public spending and the wider economy.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
The fourth factor has been weaker than expected central government receipts – falling £1.2bn short in May, and £0.9bn since the start of the financial year.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Local government and public corporations have also increased cumulative borrowing by £1.6bn and £1.2bn respectively since April.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
The borrowing is being driven by £4bn more central government spending, of which £2.4bn was debt interest payments. Debt interests have risen because of conflict in the Middle East, where higher energy prices have increased our spending on gilts linked to the rate of inflation.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
When adjusting for inflation, borrowing in May (£23bn) was its highest level since 2021 – see the chart below – and the second highest May ever, beaten only by £67bn in May 2020.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Amid by-election news, today’s public finances release shows a continued poor start to 2026-27: borrowing in May was £5.6bn above forecast, pushing borrowing so far this financial year £7.7bn above pre-war forecasts. Short thread.
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Nick Davies @njdavies.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
I don’t have strong views on the u16 social media ban but if these platforms are so harmful, why does the govt still use them for comms? Likewise, while kids (and everyone else!) should be encouraged to socialise in-person, they now have far fewer options following brutal cuts to youth services
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
So a disappointing start to the financial year for the public finances with risks to come. For more on how the government should manage the risks here see RF’s recent note on how the government can reset its ailing policy agenda: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... [END]
resolutionfoundation.org
See it. Say it. Sort it. • Resolution Foundation
This briefing note sets out how the Government should reset its economic strategy against a bleak backdrop of weak growth, falling living standards, and high borrowing costs. It provides clear directi...
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
…the war in the Middle East means the latest forecasts are already out of date. We estimate that the war could add around £16bn to borrowing based on the BoE’s middle scenario and around £12bn this year. [5/6]
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
This chart plots the slow progress the government is making in bringing down the deficit. 2025-26 was unrevised at £132bn, £20bn lower than 2024-25. The Government has another £17 billion in deficit reduction planned for the year ahead, BUT… [4/6]
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Central government receipts were also a bit weaker than expected – £0.9bn on an accruals basis, also pushing up on borrowing. [3/6]
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Central government spending was the largest factor pushing up on borrowing, with expenditure £2.3bn above the forecast of £116.5bn. [2/6]
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Amid worries about the impact of conflict in the Middle East, today’s public finances data show a disappointing start to 2026-27: borrowing was £24.3bn in April, £3.4bn above (pre-war) forecasts. With the conflict ongoing, plans for £17bn consolidation this year are very much at risk. Short thread…
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 15/05/2026
In our latest Substack, Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover looks at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades. Though there are signs of progress, big disparities remain ⬇️ buff.ly/pX0vG2a
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
The UK has become more equal but ethnic minorities still earn less than their White counterparts
RF Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover takes a look at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
New @resolutionfoundation.org substack with @charliemccurdy.bsky.social considering the implications of the UK's new demographic era - one where deaths outweigh births and all population growth comes from net migration, and that's falling too 👇 resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/the-uks-de...
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
The UK’s demographic squeeze
What do the next few years hold for the UK’s population? And what does that mean for the public finances?
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
This shows the importance of raising the fiscal buffers in the last budget. Looking ahead, the Chancellor should ensure any energy bill support is targeted towards households facing significant hardship and time-limited in order to stay within her fiscal rules. End.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
This week, Resolution Foundation published a macroeconomic policy outlook examining these risks. Under a severe but plausible scenario, £16bn could be wiped off the Chancellor’s £24bn headroom. The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2026 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2026 • Resolution Foundation
Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began nearly two months ago, global energy markets have been volatile. But the shock facing Britain has so far been smaller than that which followed Russia’s invas...
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
…in addition the fallout of the ongoing war in the Middle East yet to show in the data. Government borrowing costs have risen sharply in recent weeks, weakening public finances and threatening plans to reduce the deficit further.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
The government can take credit for bringing borrowing down the deficit in 2025-26 but, as this chart shows, the pattern since the election has been for *much* higher borrowing than forecast before…
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
That higher spending was more than offset by stronger central government receipts (£1,122bn), £87bn higher than last year, driven by higher income tax and NICs receipts, and leaving the public finances on a stronger footing.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
The fall in borrowing in 2025-26 came despite government spending (£1,246bn) rising £58bn compared to 2024-25 (although it was below the OBR’s November forecast of £1,254bn).
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Borrowing in March was £12.6bn, slightly above market expectations of £10.4bn. But the big news was a first estimate of borrowing for fiscal year 2025-26, which showed borrowing of £132bn - £0.7bn below the OBR’s Spring forecast and £6.2bn below what the OBR forecast in November (see chart).
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Public finances data out this morning show the government managed to reduce borrowing in the financial year ending March 2026. But the economic effects of war in the Middle East present a new risk to the outlook. 🧵
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Lalitha Try @lalithatry.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Happy new tax year 2026 • Resolution Foundation
The start of April marks the beginning of the new tax year, meaning households will face a wide range of tax, benefit and utility bill changes. Benefit changes in April will boost incomes for the poor...
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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Today we discussed new research from @resolutionfoundation.org co-authored with @gthwaites.bsky.social @annastansbury.bsky.social and Richmond Egyei on the long shadow that deep poverty in childhood casts over the earnings of graduates in the labour market. Thread below on what we found …
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