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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 18h

After the polls today, our polling average has Democrats up 9% in the Generic Ballot, 50%-41%. Here's every House seat that either Harris won, or Trump won by under 11.5% (which would be the shift from 2024-2026). Note that both Maine districts would also count in this sample.

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I AM ROCK HARD AT THIS NEW INFORMATION ABOUT MISSOURIS 2ND DISTRICT

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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 29/09/2026

The Talmud teaches that anyone who sustains one soul, has sustained an entire world. For generations, Jewish New Yorkers have sustained our city. Today, we are launching the first-ever municipal Strategy to Combat Antisemitism.

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They re-districted. They do have 4 Safe Dem Seats though, along with 4 Trump-leaning seats that Dems hold as of this second

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Tabula America Suffragium

Suffragium: electioncord.com/suffragium/ Generic Ballot Averages: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

electioncord.com

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 21h

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The main reason? 81% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, while 71% of Republicans say the same thing. I also imagine the independents are split like this. For what it's worth though, I would have included definitely and probably will vote in an LV screen.

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 21h

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 22h

One thing that's pretty interesting about the new YouGov/Economist poll is the split between Registered Voters and Likely Voters for Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. Approval: RV: -26, LV: -25 Generic Ballot: RV: D+8, LV: D+15 LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 22h

You should join our Discord, just in case say, Bluesky goes down for some reason... LINK: discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR

discord.gg

Join the ElectionCord Discord Server!

ElectionCord is a community server revolving primarily around politics. | 664 members

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There’s a lot of opportunity here to not just rebuild Election Twitter, but to make something better. I was one of the first accounts to really commit to migrating over and as scary as that is we’ve got a real community going now far more talented than I

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Here is the closest election in recent memory to a result that looks similar to this: Ohio 2018 Senate, involving Sherrod Brown, in a wave year for Democrats. He ended up winning by about 7%, given I think the coalitions are likely going to be different. (1/2) LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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While he will likely do better in the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland, particularly in controversial Republican incumbent Max Miller's district (OH-7), I cannot imagine him doing this well in Appalachia.

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These are all of the 100K Districts that shifted right by at least 10% to Trump from 2020-2024. Most of these were majority-minority areas that Dems won, especially in NYC, CA, TX, and FL. Ironically? these are the areas we expect to shift back to Dems the most. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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Ohio Governor in the same timeframe: Marist (9/24-27): D+6 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): R+2

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Quality Ohio Senate Polls Since 8/1: Marist (9/24-27): D+8 Quantus (9/21-23): D+1 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): D+8

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How dare you leak this poll -7 minutes in advance

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Not in New York, I don't know why, no real crosstab split either

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Here's a Marist poll... From March that talks about whether New York City residents like the Mets or Yankees more LINK: maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/new-yo...

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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

While I am not trying to "compare" Cook and Crystal Ball, I was curious if Crystal Ball's practice of pushing toss-ups ended up making them more accurate... and it did! While Crystal Ball did get a lot more picks incorrect, they did also made more correct picks, and thus got a higher score.

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Go check this list out! Many good accounts on here

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In case you haven't, follow @purrtah.bsky.social's Election Night Starter Pack! A lot of good accounts on here. LINK: go.bsky.app/Fma3sng And if you want the most up-to-date information on the election, join our Discord! LINK: discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR

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4. Hidalgo County- Largest county in the Rio Grande Valley, has shifted right close to 50% right since 2016, can Talarico get at least Biden 2020 margins? 5. Travis County- Austin, Talarico will win it by a lot, no doubt. But he needs truly fantastic turnout here. Thoughts?

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Marist Poll @maristpoll.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Five counties I'm going to be watching on Election Day in Texas: 1. Williamson County- Suburban county in Talarico's home metro of Austin, needs to win this Trump +2 county 2 & 3: Collin and Denton Counties- Suburban counties in Dallas Trump won by double digits. Talarico has to get close.

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Set your alarm! Coming at midnight, our next Battleground State poll. The latest numbers in Ohio's Senate and Governor races... AND where Ohio voters stand on President Donald Trump. maristpoll.com/latest-polls

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I suspect so, yes. Likely would identify as independents

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Here's just one example of this: On YouGov's recent poll, 81% of Democrats said they definitely will vote, versus 70% of Republicans. I would also be interested to see the Independent numbers divided into Leans D and Leans R, and if there's a big gap or not

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Republicans don't really have a Trump -> Dem problem (at least not substantially), but they do seem to have a Trump -> Not Voting problem, particularly among those who weren't strong supporters of Trump in 2024. Conversely, they may also have a Not Voting -> Dem problem.

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Fair point, these areas saw lower turnout across the board. I will point out though as well, that we saw lower turnout across the board in every state in these areas, regardless if Republicans controlled it or not. California, very big on making sure people can vote, saw turnout decrease

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QOTD: Here's a fun one, what is your 9Axes Result? Here's mine, although I only did the short version of the test. I don't think the test is perfect certainly, but still pretty interesting to see! LINK: 9axes.github.io

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Party Trust Issues since 8/1 Averaged: Healthcare: D+19 Democracy: D+11 Inflation: D+11 International Trade: D+9 Cost of Living: D+9 Economy: D+6 Corruption: D+5 Foreign Policy: D+4 AI: D+3 ------------ Immigration: R+4 Crime: R+9 Border Security: R+19

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 27/09/2026

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The Colorado Springs metro, using our 100K Districts, and the shift from 2016 President to 2024 President. Colorado Springs was once considered one of the most conservative cities in the country, but that's quickly changing, as it shifted 13% left from 2016-2024. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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