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Here's the US, using our 100K Districts, by the % of people who didn't graduate high school. Most of the areas with high(ish) amount of people who didn't graduate high school are majority Hispanic, like in California and Texas. LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

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Turnout shift (using CVAP) from 2020-2024 President. Just note that even if turnout was more or less the same from 2020, there are some major differences under the hood! Georgia for example, is a stark contrast between Atlanta and the rural areas. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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This is the poll in question, and in the red box, is the problem. Everyone in the likely voter screen say they definitely will vote... yet no one who says they probably will vote is included. If someone says "I probably will vote" you expect them to vote most of the time! ⬇️

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For all you Blorida enthusiasts out there, per the great Michael Pruser on Twitter, Dems have gained more in registration than Republicans in Florida in the last month. First time since at least mid-2021 this has happened!

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Georgia (left) versus North Carolina (right) by how many Dem votes each 100K District in each state got. The main difference is really the locations. Whereas most of the Dem votes come from Atlanta in Georgia, North Carolina's is much more spread out. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 30/09/2026

The 10 100K districts with the highest population density: All 10 are in New York City, either Manhattan or the Bronx! Combined, they voted D+58 LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

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The 10 100K districts with the lowest population density: 3 in Alaska 2 in Montana 1 each in South Dakota, Wyoming, California, Nevada, and Oregon Combined, they voted R+29 in 2024 LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 30/09/2026

I made this live on-stream, shows the 5 Marist polls we have gotten in late September!

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After the polls today, our polling average has Democrats up 9% in the Generic Ballot, 50%-41%. Here's every House seat that either Harris won, or Trump won by under 11.5% (which would be the shift from 2024-2026). Note that both Maine districts would also count in this sample.

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The main reason? 81% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, while 71% of Republicans say the same thing. I also imagine the independents are split like this. For what it's worth though, I would have included definitely and probably will vote in an LV screen.

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Here is the closest election in recent memory to a result that looks similar to this: Ohio 2018 Senate, involving Sherrod Brown, in a wave year for Democrats. He ended up winning by about 7%, given I think the coalitions are likely going to be different. (1/2) LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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Here's a Marist poll... From March that talks about whether New York City residents like the Mets or Yankees more LINK: maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/new-yo...

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While I am not trying to "compare" Cook and Crystal Ball, I was curious if Crystal Ball's practice of pushing toss-ups ended up making them more accurate... and it did! While Crystal Ball did get a lot more picks incorrect, they did also made more correct picks, and thus got a higher score.

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Here's just one example of this: On YouGov's recent poll, 81% of Democrats said they definitely will vote, versus 70% of Republicans. I would also be interested to see the Independent numbers divided into Leans D and Leans R, and if there's a big gap or not

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QOTD: Here's a fun one, what is your 9Axes Result? Here's mine, although I only did the short version of the test. I don't think the test is perfect certainly, but still pretty interesting to see! LINK: 9axes.github.io

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These are all of the 100K Districts that shifted right by at least 10% to Trump from 2020-2024. Most of these were majority-minority areas that Dems won, especially in NYC, CA, TX, and FL. Ironically? these are the areas we expect to shift back to Dems the most. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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All the State Senate seats in the US that voted for Trump, but by under 10%. Obviously Democrats hold some of these seats, but these are the big targets for Democrats in 2026. Both in defending them, and flipping them. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 27/09/2026

13th: California I'm both disappointed and impressed. Impressed because I got more counties than I expected to, and disappointed by just how inconsistent each county's methods for reporting are. Some had updated maps, some don't, some use clear sources, some don't. PLEASE STATES, make it consistent

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The Colorado Springs metro, using our 100K Districts, and the shift from 2016 President to 2024 President. Colorado Springs was once considered one of the most conservative cities in the country, but that's quickly changing, as it shifted 13% left from 2016-2024. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 27/09/2026

Not every race shifts evenly from a Presidential year to a Midterm. First picture is 2016 Pres -> 2018 Senate, and the second one is 2020 Pres -> 2022 Senate. 2022 is interesting, as Dems did better in AZ, PA, and OH, but much worse in FL, SC, and AL. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 26/09/2026

Atlanta (left) versus the rest of Georgia (right), using 2024 Pres. and our 100K Districts. Harris won Atlanta by about 25%, while Trump won the rest of Georgia by 28%. The problem for Harris was that she needed Atlanta to be a bigger piece of the pie. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 25/09/2026

Generic Ballot Update: Democrats crossed over 50%, and lead by about 8.5%. Democrats: 50.2%, Republicans: 41.6% Other Crosstab Averages: Indies: D+16 Moderates: D+24 College Grads: D+18 Non-College: D+0.2 (1/2) LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 25/09/2026

12th: Iowa Iowa was very easy to add, thank you to the Iowa SOS for just having every county's precinct info on one page, hosted by Clarity!

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 25/09/2026

One potential weak spot for Democrats in 2026 could be GA Governor. Besides the fact that Rick Jackson, the Republican, is self-funding his own campaign and has "raised" 20x the amount of money as KLB, KLB had some warning signs in the primary, mainly that she did the worst in Atlanta!

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Another big reason why the midterms in 2026 are different from 2018? Trump wasn't as unpopular as he is now! According to 538 (by way of the Wayback Machine) Trump's approval on E-Day 2018 was sitting at -11, considerably better than the -24 we currently have on our averages. ⬇️

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Just thought this was pretty interesting. There were two polls in Florida that recently came out. One (St. Pete Polls) showed Florida as a tossup, and the other (Stetson) showed a clear lead for both Republican candidates. I broke each down by Party ID, and there is a clear difference.

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The biggest difference I found? What people thought of the economy. In 2018, people thought the economy was quite good, with a plurality of people saying the economy was getting better. Now though? 60% of people think the economy is getting worse. Read more ⬇️

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NEW: While the 2018 Midterms were good for Dems, and the 2026 Midterms are likely to be good for Dems, that the underlying reasons for why are very different. I discussed the why and the how, and really how every election is very different! LINK: electioncord.com/the-differen...

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In a shocker to no one, a judge ruled that in fact, Trump cannot ban CNN/MSNow/Politico (per Twitter)

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I actually had made a spreadsheet about this a while back. Pro tip btw, name your spreadsheets something so not everything is untitled spreadsheet

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10th and 11th: Ohio and Arizona Bad news and good news here, as Ohio we could only get a couple of counties, but in Arizona we got almost every county we wanted!

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Pennsylvania by ElectionCord's 100K Districts, 2020-2024 Presidential Shift. Despite the state overall flipping, there was some good news for Democrats, particularly in Pittsburgh and Lancaster County. Dems struggled the most in Eastern PA and Philadelphia. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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The US, using our 100K Districts, by Hispanic %, in 3D! Majority Hispanic areas are most prevalent in Texas, California, and the Southwest, as well as major metro areas like Chicago, Miami, and New York City LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

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Here's a chart of 100K Districts in VA and NJ. The X axis is the shift between 2020-2024 President, and the Y axis is the shift between 2024 President and 2025 Governor. Interestingly, the areas that shifted the most to Trump in 24 shifted the most to Dems in 25! LINK: electioncord.com/charta/

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Even if the shift we see in 2026 looks similar to 2018, there is one key difference: the makeup of the shifts. In 2018, you could see the beginnings of the rightward shift among minorities, whereas in 2026, they look poised to snap back to Democrats. LINK: electioncord.com/charta/

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San Antonio-Austin using our 100K Districts and Tabula America Index. While Austin is heavily college educated and mostly White, San Antonio is mostly Hispanic. Both however, should be good for Democrats in November, as Harris won these areas by 12% in 24. LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

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