Sign in

Chasing Cirrus

@drymeadow.bsky.social
782 followers 882 following 1.6K posts

CA water/climate/environmental policy professional. The ocean & sky call me (i.e. salt-water and weather nerd). Aspiring writer. Sober. Personal Principles: Life, liberty, equity, dignity, good-faith, win-win, transparent. Abolish ICE, Convict MAGA.

PostsRepliesMedia
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Look, I'm as excited for the midterms as the next Normal'n'Sane® Person, but my text message shouldn't have to look like this:
An absolute wall of unread text messages seeking money. Honestly, I'd sign up and pay dues to not have to deal with this.
040
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Goddammit, leginfo did NOT need to shit the bed today of all fucking days of the legislative year 🧂🧂🧂
000
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Guardian using the word "rumbustious" to describe former Reichsfuhrer Noem's tenure in an article about her recently filed for divorce is an *excellent* use of language given The Context.
000
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Erica Cioffi @ericacioffi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) disproportionately contribute to global productivity and fisheries. We looked at response of phytoplankton to climate change in these regions and found that productivity declines in 25% of the area, which would impact livelihoods of coastal communities.🌊
bg.copernicus.org
Beyond wind-induced upwelling: diverse drivers of future productivity in eastern boundary upwelling systems
Abstract. Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) contribute disproportionately to global marine productivity and fisheries, yet their response to climate change remains poorly understood. Given the...
15213
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
As a fond aficionado and practitioner of various American aphorisms, colloquialisms, and idioms--and as a person with a very crowded and often chaotic calendar--this tracks.
415822
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New Weather West post out this evening! I discuss the hyperactive East and Central Pacific hurricane season, as well as the upcoming heatwave across CA--and also why even a dry & warm autumn tells us essentially nothing about the El Niño winter to come.
weatherwest.com
A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds - Weather West
September 27, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A hyperactive tropical East Pacific slings hurricanes toward Hawaii and Baja California, with indirect effects (modest moisture & potentially damaging ocean waves) in SoCal It has already been a remarkable, and arguably historic, East Pacific hurricane season. Three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) have now directly impacted the Hawaiian Islands (though none made formal landfall), with #
313555
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Jimothy as part of MCU confirmed
1173
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This coulda been battery/solar. Billionaires literally stealing the future.
010
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Straight up museum quality posting.
010
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Mother Jones @motherjones.com · 23/09/2026
Newsom has vetoed a bill that would have prohibited future governors from handing over abortion providers, helpers, and patients to red states for criminal prosecution. The bill also barred extraditions involving transgender care.
motherjones.com
Newsom vetoes bill that would ban extraditions for abortion and gender-affirming care
California’s pro-repro rights governor rejects a key protection that 18 blue states have enshrined into law.
1931115462
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Anyone whos done gov affairs in CA for any time in the last 8 years knows that Newsom loves to fuck over the poors. It happens every. fucking. year. His only talent is hiding it just enough. If he doesn't fail the primary, he'll fuck over everything left of Murkowski for the rest of US history.
1102
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
@chriswarcraft.bsky.social Truly a campaign we can all get behind 😂
Email partially cuts of the title line for future Asm. Kluwe's campaign email; hilarity ensues.
010
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
And it seems like the vast majority of them work in HR, where they present HR initiatives with negative effects on benefits and morale as "benefitting the majority" and "what staff asked for in surveys."
010
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
beetle moses @beetlemoses.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Two panel comic. Panel 1: a whale fall lies at the bottom of the ocean. The bones are covered in a variety of bottom feeders and ocean critters. Panel 2: closer up, the group of bottom feeders are holding red solo cups and chatting with each other. Among the group is a tiger prawn, who thinks to himself, “I needed this…”
40107781713
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Me discovering the three millionth thing that I want to do with my life: *bites lip* *moans* hnnnnnnggggg
011
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The ECMWF seasonal ensemble has just updated for September, and it continues to suggest that a soon record-strength El Niño will exert a very strong tilt in the odds toward wet conditions across the U.S. southern tier, including all of California, the Lower Colorado, and SE U.S.
Plot showing data from ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal model September update. It depicts the most likely "tercile" of precipitation during Jan-Mar 2027, and California is painted as "upper tercile" with 70-100% confidence.
614453
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
At last, a clearer forecast re: California and Marie! Marie is now weakening and will stay well offshore. However, confidence has increased that Marie's remnants will actually have a substantial influence on CA weather for the next 5-6 days! [Thread] #CAwx
Current satellite snapshot of the North Pacific. It's a wide view, and it shows *three* separate tropical cyclones (hurricanes) between Mexico and Hawaii (indicative of a hyperactive East Pacific hurricane season). Marie is the easternmost of the three.
212826
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
In this Weather West post, I offer an update on my most recent thoughts re: tropical storm/soon-to-be-hurricane Marie and potential impacts (or not!) in California this weekend. Also: I assess record-breaking coastal SoCal humidity in summer 2026.
weatherwest.com
Early-season trough will bring cooler weather and beneficial early-season rain to wildfire-stricken PacNW, and may also bring soon-to-be Hurricane Marie’s remnants toward SoCal over Labor Day - Weather West
September 2, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A brutally hot and humid Southern California August and a record-breaking wildfire season across interior PacNW & beyond August ended up being an exceptionally hot month across nearly the entire Southwestern U.S., including across nearly all of SoCal (even coastal areas). In fact, August was (yet again) a record warm month in many locations; in #
311836
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Roberts Court can only aspire to the reputation of the Taney Court. #corrupt
000
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
New Weather West Post: Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest, but growing, possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September. Plus: Why parts of SoCal could *potentially* see more extreme heat than is currently in forecast.
weatherwest.com
Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest but growing possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September - Weather West
August 23, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Across Southwest, a mid-late summer characterized by exceptional and sustained overnight warmth Following a record warm winter across most of the American West, it has also been a record (or near-record) warm summer across most of the interior West (and fire season from the Southern Rockies to the Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest has #
511530
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Given rising interest in the rapidly strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, I've created a one-page fact sheet succinctly describing what El Niño is, this year's (remarkable) forecast, and potential impacts from California to global scales. [Thread]
JPEG version of a 1-page Factsheet: El Niño 2026-2027: A Potentially Historic Global Climate Event
By Daniel Swain, PhD | August 2026

There is a banner image depicting projected warming of the Pacific Ocean by early winter.

The content begins:
"What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle, known as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that occurs roughly every 2-7 years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño events, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms to well above typical levels. El Niño directly affects local climate in the countries closest to the unusually warm ocean waters, but can also indirectly influence the climate of distant regions thousands of miles away. During the strongest events, El Niño can profoundly affect climate even on global scales, causing temporary planetary warming and disrupting large-scale precipitation patterns..."
12549275
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
NPR @npr.org · 17/08/2026
Sunflower sea stars are critically endangered in the Pacific Ocean. University of Washington researchers are working with the Samish Indian Nation to bring this 24-armed creature back from the brink of extinction.
n.pr
A pizza-sized ocean predator and a tribe are trying to protect each other. Here's how
Sunflower sea stars are critically endangered in the Pacific Ocean. University of Washington researchers are working with the Samish Indian Nation to bring this 24-armed creature back from the brink of extinction.
10511133
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
My commentary on Marshall et al 2026's climate change rapid attribution study on severe Western U.S. snow drought, which developed during record-warm 2026 winter & has contributed to widespread drought & wildfire-related impacts since, is now out. [Thread] www.pnas.org/doi/10....
110237
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
The weekly Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI) of +1.8C is the earliest date to reach this level (1981-present). The previous earliest date was Aug 20, 1997. @alaskawx.bsky.social
1317
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA winters (!).
Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation by tercile status (i.e., most likely well above, well below, or near-average). All of the CA coast is painted the brightest color, indicating 70-100% odds of a winter among the wettest third of all historical winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the bluest color, indicating well below average odds of a winter in the driest 20% of all winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the brightest orange color, indicating well above average odds of a winter in the wettest 20% of all CA winters.
217875
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The #GannFire, burning upslope in the Central Sierra foothills west of Angels Camp, is gaining a bit of a foothold despite the lack of extreme fire weather conditions at the moment (though it is quite hot and dry), and has forced some expanding evacuations. Why? #CAwx #CAfire
Snapshot from Watch Duty showing current fire perimeter and evacuation zones.Alert California webcam view of wildfire at present time.
16716
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
I've got 3 live virtual public events on YouTube scheduled over next 8 days (see recent posts for links): 1) Aug 3, 1p PT: WA wildfire disaster & bigger picture 2) Aug 4, 6p: "Super El Niño Town Hall" (CA Sen. Mike McGuire) 3) Aug 10, 1p: El Niño update: The latest forecast
19829
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
On Tue, Aug 4 at 6pm PT, I'll be participating in a live virtual Town Hall event, hosted by CA State Senator Mike McGuire, on our rapidly-developing #ElNiño event and implications for California from 2026 into 2027. No RSVP required. See you there!
youtube.com
Super El Nino Town Hall
Join Senator McGuire, along with climate scientists, meteorologists, and disaster preparedness experts, for a virtual Super El Niño Town Hall to learn how California is preparing for very strong or “super” El Niño weather patterns and events this fall.
110138
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
With numerous large fires already burning, the weekend fire wx outlook is concerning for interior PacNW (Cascades crest eastward). A dry cold frontal passage will bring strong winds/low humidity against severe drought backdrop, leading to "extremely critical" risk. #ORwx #WAwx
Fire weather risk outlook from NOAA SPC for Saturday. It shows a large region of elevated to critical risk, with a portion of eastern Washington designed as "extremely critical risk"--the highest level.
28834
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The Devil Wears Old Navy
071
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This is a big reality of working in rural policy.
010
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
lmao, reminds me of my days up in the woods
Democrats.org say they're getting hammered.  Good to know.
010
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
What the fuck is Molorant Wibugus?
000
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
New post out on Weather West on the upcoming intense, double-peaked heatwave event in the Pacific Southwest. What are the (indirect) links to Hurricane Genevieve? (Substantial.) And also: will California see an uptick in wildfire activity? (Probably yes.)
weatherwest.com
Building Western ridge will bring double-peaked Southwest U.S. heatwave into August, with elevated humidity persisting in SoCal due to very warm ocean - Weather West
July 28, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Continued ocean warming brings increasingly warm and humid conditions to coastal SoCal In recent weeks, the Pacific Ocean along the immediate Pacific Coast has continued to warm. Earlier this year, I mentioned that this was not yet due to El Niño because...well, El Niño had not developed yet (and was, instead, related to other patterns #
216353
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
A long-duration California heat wave is expected to begin Friday, bringing the state its hottest weather in at least two years. The heat wave is shaping up to have two phases: an initial blast focusing on Central and Southern California, then a second peak that encompassing nearly the entire state.
sfchronicle.com
California’s first major summer heat wave will have two peaks. Here’s a timeline
An extreme, long-duration California heat wave is expected to begin this week, bringing the state its hottest weather in at least two years, with no clear sign of when it might end.
0198
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Lisa Guerrero @lisaguerrero.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
When’s the last time you committed a random act of #goodtrouble ? @chriswarcraft.bsky.social lost TWO jobs for doing just that. Now he’s trying to pull Orange County out of mega maga madness. Follow @kluweoc.bsky.social and watch our important conversation here: youtu.be/mzQmIdebwbo?...
youtu.be
He was fired twice for doing the right thing
YouTube video by Lisa Guerrero
113925
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
One factor behind the potentially record-breaking ridge event across the SW US in early August? Upstream latent heat release and possibly residual anticyclonic "spin" from Hurricane Genevieve, whose dissipation will coincide with an extreme ridge-building event. #CAwx #AZwx
Map showing regions of predicted record-breaking 500mb GPH heights across North America and adjacent oceans. A broad region of record-breaking 500mb heights is indicated over and near California by this weekend, just northeast of a decaying hurricane.
18926
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
An intense and long-duration heatwave now appears likely by late Jul/early Aug for SW U.S., including California. Extreme heat is likely in hottest inland deserts, and a potentially dangerous combination of heat & elevated humidity may develop in SoCal. More to come. #CAwx #AZwx
Map of predicted 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) from the ECMWF ensemble across the Western U.S. Extremely anomalous positive (warm) GPH is depicted across the Southwest, including California and Arizona.
411136
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
In recent weeks, there has been a remarkable surge in large, intense, fast-moving, and unfortunately in many cases destructive/deadly wildfires in multiple Northern Hemisphere regions spanning a wide range of climates & ecologies, but they all share one key commonality. [Thread]
10520231
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Christoph Renkl @christophrenkl.org · 26/07/2026
What happens to #AtmosphericRivers when they interact with #MarineHeatwaves? Our new paper now out in @natureportfolio.nature.com Scientific Reports provides an answer. We assessed the impact of “the #Blob” on landfalling atmospheric rivers on the North American west coast. Here is what we found 🧵
11714
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
The extraordinary wildfire outbreak across Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern British Columbia has become even more alarming amid critical fire weather conditions. Over 500,000 acres have already burned in OR & WA alone, and that number could be >1 million acres by Mon.
An alarming snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Portal depicting numerous large smoke plumes and large heat signatures from many wildfires burning across Oregon, Washington, and British Colubmia.
26725405
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
My partner is obsessed with our new neighbor
Its a possum. We have a possum living in our Mulberry.
120
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Growing signs of prolonged & potentially intense heatwave across SW by early Aug. A broad Four Corners ridge will strengthen far beyond usual levels on its western flank, possibly due in part to indirect effects from a yet-to-develop East Pacific hurricane. Details TBD. #CAwx
Forecast from ECMWF ensemble showing 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) around early August. They are highly anomalously positive across the SW US.
614744
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Unfortunately, and as anticipated, yesterday's widespread lightning-following-heat event amid severe drought has sparked a large number of additional wildfires, expanding existing outbreak across OR, WA, & BC. Numerous heat signatures & large smoke plumes are evident. #ORwx #WAwx
Current snapshot from NOAA Wildfire Fire Portal showing dozens of large, active fires (heat signatures and smoke plumes) from Oregon into southern British Columbia
13327120
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Took me 24 days to wonder where Jerry went.
000
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
California Water Boards @cawaterboards.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The 2nd largest tribal “land back” deal in CA was just funded by the CA State Water Board. Quartz Valley Indian Reservation is receiving a $25M zero-interest loan to purchase 40k acres in the Klamath River Basin. This is State-Tribal partnership in action. shorturl.at/kC9sE
photo of a tributary stream of the Klamath River Basin with overlaying text.
022
Reposted by Chasing Cirrus
Mark Lubell @envpolicycenter.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Among all of the dire impacts of climate change, the rapidly increasing probably of "snow droughts" in the West is really scary for wildfire, water supply, and recreation. I do not suggest investing in a ski area. insideclimatenews.org/news/2207202...
1136
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
static.klipy.com
Vulture Shrug Dance
Alt: Vulture Shrug Dance
030
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Why is "benthic omnivore" not already a band name?
010
Chasing Cirrus @drymeadow.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Honestly it makes sense that TB would be the fast food of choice for the left-of-center and I would enlist in the Crunchwrap Grenadiers or the Bell Grande Airborne.
000