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Biodiversity predictions that account for variability and extreme weather are critical for reliably predicting biodiversity patterns! They might otherwise be greatly overpredicted. If you find this stuff cool, check out postdoc/phd opportunities in my new group at Rutgers! www.gcmelab.com/join-us

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Biodiversity (richness) predictions were more accurate with variability/extreme weather included, and models with mean climate only greatly overpredicted biodiversity in regions prone to weather variability, the great plains and southwest!

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Models with variable and extreme weather were much more conservative around the range edges – where such weather could push species past physiological limits - conforming more closely to expert-drawn range borders

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With extreme weather and variability included, winter ranges shrunk on average 10% across species, with breeding ranges shrinking 6%

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We found that including information about weather variability and extreme weather risk in distribution models (not just temp/precip averages) greatly changed the estimated distributions for many species (purple areas are no longer suitable)

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Alison Robey @alisonrobey.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

🚨🚨🚨 NOW OUT at @globalchangebio.bsky.social! "Continental‐Scale Biodiversity Predictions Are Influenced by Climatic Variability and Extreme Weather" – collab with @diegoellissoto.bsky.social and others from Yale BGC! 🧪🌐🪶 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Second dissertation chapter just dropped at Ecology Letters! doi.org/10.1111/ele.70441 Across theory, stochastic models, and protist microcosms, we show how rising temporal autocorrelation drives predictable increases in extinction risk under warming (ft. coauthor @mtkummel.bsky.social!)

doi.org

Temporal Autocorrelation Increases Temperature‐Driven Extinction Risk by Clustering Stressful Conditions

Extinction risk forecasting typically relies on comparing thermal tolerance data to predicted shifts in thermal distributions. However, changing temporal sequencing of temperatures may exacerbate the....

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Erin Sauer @sauerscientist.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

I am recruiting a PhD student interested in the disease ecology of cavity nesting birds to start Fall 2027! Interested applicants can contact me by filling out the linked form. I will also be at ESA 2026 and am happy to meet! More info on my website: sauerlab.com Please share!

docs.google.com

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

I'm joining Rutgers DEENR in a tenure-track faculty position this fall! I'll be recruiting a quantitative postdoc in climate change wildlife ecology (start fall 26 or jan 27) and PhD student doing bioacoustics to study avian responses to extreme weather (start fall 27). More- www.gcmelab.com/join-us

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

🚨Now out! For 98 hummingbird species, we jointly model presence-only GBIF data + presence-absence ebird data, leveraging both simultaneously to arrive at more accurate predictions for under-surveyed species. And got the cover! Led by Jussi Mäkinen 🧪🌐 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Model‐Based Data Integration Improves Species Distribution Models for Data‐Deficient and Narrow‐Ranged Hummingbird Species

Aim For species with narrow ranges or low population sizes, a deficiency of species occurrence records can limit the capacity to build accurate species distribution models (SDMs). Model-based integr...

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Exciting to be a part of this!

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Dr. Marta Jarzyna @majarzyna.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Thrilled to share our new paper out in @science.org, led by François Leroy and Petr Keil! Using the Breeding Bird Survey, we document not only a continent-wide decline in bird abundance since the 1980s — but, crucially, the acceleration of these declines over time. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.org

Acceleration hotspots of North American birds’ decline are associated with agriculture

Human activities might have accelerated declines of population abundance, but this acceleration remains underexplored. Using 1033 North American Breeding Bird Survey routes, we analyze abundance chang...

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Leading a organized session at #WBF2026 on climate change and biodiversity! Titled "Linking anthropogenic climate change to shifting biodiversity patterns". If submitting an abstract, you can send it directly to the session (under NEX track)! worldbiodiversityforum.org

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

🚨Now out in @pnas.org! Our group provides a framework to mathematically link environmental niches from individual to population and species scales. Our approach enables more accurate forecasting of biodiversity change across organismal levels. 🧪 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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Species’ historical niches are becoming increasingly mismatched with contemporary climates even in a highly mobile taxon like birds, raising concerns about the ability of other wildlife to persist in a warmer world. Other wildlife may have to rely on phenological or behavioral changes.

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We found similar results when repeating these analyses using eBird alone or Breeding Bird Survey data, highlighting the robustness of the findings.

Species possessing traits associated with dispersal, such as long-distance migratory behavior or high hand-wing index, succeeded most in limiting their niche loss (partial residual plots).

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Species moving the furthest north succeeded most in limiting their niche loss. Move north, avoid warming. However, only very few species moved north far enough to fully erase their exposure, and in most cases they only partially limited their exposure.

Therefore- species averted much more of their expected exposure in summer, when they are more at risk of physiological consequences of heat stress- but still only avoided half of the expected warming in this season.

Most redistributions were only partially effective. Species moved their ranges ~0.65° latitude north in both seasons, mitigating their expected exposure by ~1.28 °C in summer (48% of expected if they were stationary), while only mitigating ~0.47 °C (11% of expected) in winter.

We developed a method to account for biases in tens of millions of species observations from GBIF and evaluate how 406 bird species native to the US and Canada have mitigated their environmental niche loss using geographical redistributions from 2000-2020.

As climate change accelerates, species can move poleward (north, in North America) or up mountains to limit their exposure to heat. While these movements have been extensively reported, it remains unclear whether species have succeeded in limiting their exposure to novel conditions.

Volker Rudolf @volkerrudolf.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

NEW SCIENCE! 🚨🚨🚨🧪🪶🌐 Our paper is now online at @natecoevo.nature.com! “Geographic redistributions are insufficient to mitigate exposure to climate change in North American birds”. We know birds are moving north with climate change, but what are the consequences? www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

To understand how climate change affects natural ecosystems we need to know how warming influences species interactions. In our newest paper we show that predator-prey interactions fundamentally change across latitude leading to context dependent effects of warming. 🧪 doi.org/10.1111/oik....

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

The #climate/water paradox: As temperatures rise, more #water evaporates into the atmosphere & more precipitation occurs. But land areas are getting drier not wetter. Why? Because more water evaporates from soils. The rain that falls is in intense events in fewer regions, leading to worse #floods 👉

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Neil Renic @ncrenic.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Just had an idea

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Kristin Winchell @kmwinchell.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

‼️📝 New paper! 1st undergrad honor thesis from the lab! Hannah Owen looked at thousands of #spottedlanternfly @inaturalist.bsky.social images to study spatio-temporal & phenology patterns of the invasion, and to understand the role of #urban environments in their spread www.nyu.edu/about/news-p...

nyu.edu

Spotted Lanternflies in the US Are Living Longer—and Cities May be Helping Them Spread

NYU researchers find longer life cycles and urban connection for the invasive insects, which could spell trouble for local ecosystems, but also point to cities as “early-detection zones” for controlli...

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Saw/heard 104 bird species in Florida over Thanksgiving... crossing 100 was a goal I slowly become obsessed with, made tougher with all the best spots being closed due to hurricane. Here's a prairie warbler ebird.org/tripreport/2... 🪶 #birds

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.com · 28/11/2024

Wait, do I want cool science to drown out all of the politics?! Yes. Yes, I do. 🧪

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Yep. One of the most feeder friendly birds in the Eastern US. Usually one of the first species to find the feeder

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Reposted by Jeremy Cohen

gavin jones @ecologyofgavin.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Recently discovered a fun webpage called Probability Playground where you can interactively explore probability distributions. It’s helpful especially for distributions with parameters that are not immediately intuitive. Very cool! www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~adamcunn/pr...

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Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

It's just right wing projection which is all they ever do. All of their media and social platforms are echo chambers

Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Why don't I ever see these articles about fox news, oann, 100 different podcasts and YouTube channels, X, truth social, 4chan, etc being echo chambers for the right?

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Coarse-grain models can bias seasonal & continental estimates of biodiversity patterns across space and time and grain-related biases intensify during summer & in patchier landscapes, esp. for range-restricted, habitat specialist species at risk of population declines.

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Biases were greatest in desert regions with patchier habitat and for range-restricted and habitat-specialist species. Predictions based on coarse-grain models overpredicted avian diversity in the west and underpredicted it in the great plains, prairie pothole region and boreal zones.

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Coarse-grain models (even at 3 km) consistently under-predicted range area, potentially missing important habitat. This bias intensified during summer (83%–86% of species) when many birds have smaller ‘operational scales’ via localized home ranges while breeding.

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In both seasons, 1 km models more accurately predicted species presence, absence and richness at local sites.

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We fit SDMs for summer & winter distributions of 572 bird sp native to US/Canada across five spatial grains 1-50 km using eBird. We combined predictions to generate seasonal biodiversity estimates, validated using observations from 322 well-surveyed sites.

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