Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Biodiversity predictions that account for variability and extreme weather are critical for reliably predicting biodiversity patterns! They might otherwise be greatly overpredicted. If you find this stuff cool, check out postdoc/phd opportunities in my new group at Rutgers! www.gcmelab.com/join-us 000
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Biodiversity (richness) predictions were more accurate with variability/extreme weather included, and models with mean climate only greatly overpredicted biodiversity in regions prone to weather variability, the great plains and southwest! 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Models with variable and extreme weather were much more conservative around the range edges – where such weather could push species past physiological limits - conforming more closely to expert-drawn range borders 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026With extreme weather and variability included, winter ranges shrunk on average 10% across species, with breeding ranges shrinking 6% 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026We found that including information about weather variability and extreme weather risk in distribution models (not just temp/precip averages) greatly changed the estimated distributions for many species (purple areas are no longer suitable) 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026🚨🚨🚨 NOW OUT at @globalchangebio.bsky.social! "Continental‐Scale Biodiversity Predictions Are Influenced by Climatic Variability and Extreme Weather" – collab with @diegoellissoto.bsky.social and others from Yale BGC! 🧪🌐🪶 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 27416
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 16/07/2026I'm joining Rutgers DEENR in a tenure-track faculty position this fall! I'll be recruiting a quantitative postdoc in climate change wildlife ecology (start fall 26 or jan 27) and PhD student doing bioacoustics to study avian responses to extreme weather (start fall 27). More- www.gcmelab.com/join-us 12716
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 03/11/2025Leading a organized session at #WBF2026 on climate change and biodiversity! Titled "Linking anthropogenic climate change to shifting biodiversity patterns". If submitting an abstract, you can send it directly to the session (under NEX track)! worldbiodiversityforum.org 021
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 02/09/2025🚨Now out in @pnas.org! Our group provides a framework to mathematically link environmental niches from individual to population and species scales. Our approach enables more accurate forecasting of biodiversity change across organismal levels. 🧪 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... 1136
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Species’ historical niches are becoming increasingly mismatched with contemporary climates even in a highly mobile taxon like birds, raising concerns about the ability of other wildlife to persist in a warmer world. Other wildlife may have to rely on phenological or behavioral changes. 010
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025We found similar results when repeating these analyses using eBird alone or Breeding Bird Survey data, highlighting the robustness of the findings. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Species possessing traits associated with dispersal, such as long-distance migratory behavior or high hand-wing index, succeeded most in limiting their niche loss (partial residual plots). 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Species moving the furthest north succeeded most in limiting their niche loss. Move north, avoid warming. However, only very few species moved north far enough to fully erase their exposure, and in most cases they only partially limited their exposure. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Therefore- species averted much more of their expected exposure in summer, when they are more at risk of physiological consequences of heat stress- but still only avoided half of the expected warming in this season. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Most redistributions were only partially effective. Species moved their ranges ~0.65° latitude north in both seasons, mitigating their expected exposure by ~1.28 °C in summer (48% of expected if they were stationary), while only mitigating ~0.47 °C (11% of expected) in winter. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025We developed a method to account for biases in tens of millions of species observations from GBIF and evaluate how 406 bird species native to the US and Canada have mitigated their environmental niche loss using geographical redistributions from 2000-2020. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025As climate change accelerates, species can move poleward (north, in North America) or up mountains to limit their exposure to heat. While these movements have been extensively reported, it remains unclear whether species have succeeded in limiting their exposure to novel conditions. 110
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 10/06/2025NEW SCIENCE! 🚨🚨🚨🧪🪶🌐 Our paper is now online at @natecoevo.nature.com! “Geographic redistributions are insufficient to mitigate exposure to climate change in North American birds”. We know birds are moving north with climate change, but what are the consequences? www.nature.com/articles/s41... 34416
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Saw/heard 104 bird species in Florida over Thanksgiving... crossing 100 was a goal I slowly become obsessed with, made tougher with all the best spots being closed due to hurricane. Here's a prairie warbler ebird.org/tripreport/2... 🪶 #birds 0211
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Coarse-grain models can bias seasonal & continental estimates of biodiversity patterns across space and time and grain-related biases intensify during summer & in patchier landscapes, esp. for range-restricted, habitat specialist species at risk of population declines. 000
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Biases were greatest in desert regions with patchier habitat and for range-restricted and habitat-specialist species. Predictions based on coarse-grain models overpredicted avian diversity in the west and underpredicted it in the great plains, prairie pothole region and boreal zones. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Coarse-grain models (even at 3 km) consistently under-predicted range area, potentially missing important habitat. This bias intensified during summer (83%–86% of species) when many birds have smaller ‘operational scales’ via localized home ranges while breeding. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024In both seasons, 1 km models more accurately predicted species presence, absence and richness at local sites. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024We fit SDMs for summer & winter distributions of 572 bird sp native to US/Canada across five spatial grains 1-50 km using eBird. We combined predictions to generate seasonal biodiversity estimates, validated using observations from 322 well-surveyed sites. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Eg, coarse-grain biases may intensify in patchy landscapes, accumulating to produce misleading estimates of continental/seasonal biodiversity 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 21/11/2024American woodcock appreciation- hanging out by the side of a back road in central Connecticut in May #birds 🪶 080
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 18/11/2024#birds of southern California earlier this year 🪶 roadrunner, avocet, threatened California gnatcatcher, endangered California condor 030
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 17/11/2024Merlin with a snack (goldfinch?) in coastal Connecticut this week #birds 🪶 #nikon 1481
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 16/11/2024Washington state #birds from a trip earlier this year 🪶 Varied thrush, American and Eurasian wigeons, Anna's hummingbird, Canada jay 0172
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 14/11/2024Birds from spring migration in Arkansas this year (summer tanager, painted bunting, white-eyed vireo, scissor-tailed flycatcher) 🪶#birds . 1250
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Swiss and Italian #birds I photo'd this past summer 🪶 0201
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are likely important but neglected aspects of organismal responses to climate change, and responses likely vary quite a bit below the species level. 031
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Habitat generalism was a good indicator of whether a species was more likely to vary its thermal response (peak, the temperature of peak occurrence, or range, the range of temperatures when occurrence is high) across seasons. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Across their ranges, some birds demonstrated constant thermal responses while others varied according to local and current environmental conditions. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Here, we take a macroecological approach, leveraging high-res observational data from eBird & weather data, and applying an ensemble modeling approach that fits 100s of local models (red boxes) per 21 bird species to understand regional and seasonal variation in thermal sensitivity. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Spatial and temporal variation in thermal responses may carry important implications for climate change vulnerability; for instance, sensitivity to extreme weather may increase in specific regions or seasons. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Physiological evidence suggests important variation in thermal sensitivity within species, driven by adaptation to local environments and phenotypic plasticity needed to adjust to seasonal environments. 100
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Physiological evidence suggests important variation in thermal sensitivity within species, driven by adaptation to local environments and phenotypic plasticity needed to adjust to seasonal environments. 010
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Here, we take a macroecological approach, leveraging high-res observational data from eBird & weather data, and applying an ensemble modeling approach that fits 100s of local models (red boxes) per 21 bird species to understand regional and seasonal variation in thermal sensitivity. 000
Jeremy Cohen @drjerbs.bsky.social · 12/11/2024Recapping some research I published since I've been off Xitter! [Dec '23] Responses of wildlife to climate change are often quantified to species, but are we missing important variation below the species level over space (ranges) and time (seasons)? A macro approach! doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.1398 161