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Jenn Dowd

@drjenndowd.bsky.social
8.2K followers 2.1K following 1.8K posts

Prof of Demography & Population Health @oxforddemsci.bsky.social | Mortality, Epidemiology, Infections/Immunity, Biosocial science, COVID-19. | Science Communicator 🇺🇸 in 🇬🇧. Substack: jenndowd.substack.com

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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
My man ended USAID, condemning millions to death
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 09/10/2026
Is America in a demographic crisis? Demographers don’t think so. I conducted a survey of U.S. demographers, and this is what I found: 3%: “The low birth rate is a demographic crisis” 25%: "serious concern” 53%: "should be monitored, but no intervention necessary” 20% :“not a problem at all.”
Fig. 1 The United States has a total fertility rate around 1.6. Which of these statements
comes closest to your view? N = 180

3.2

24.5

52.7

19.7

The low birth rate is a
demographic crisis

The low birth rate is a
matter of serious concern

The low birth rate should be
monitored, but no
intervention is necessary

The low birth rate is not a
problem at all

0.0

A rate below 1.6 would be
better

0

10

20

30
Percent

40

50

60
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Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The video recordings of the presentations from our conference, "Beyond Birth Rates: Advancing a Pro-Alignment Approach to Low Fertility in North America," are now available at this link. If you missed the conference, watch the outstanding work of our panelists! www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
“Without physically removing a single person, these rules would bureaucratically disappear millions of people from the national count. They would also strip away an important reference point against which claims of unequal treatment can be measured.”
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Census Counts Everyone. Trump Doesn’t Want That. (Gift Article)
Rewriting the rules for counting the population is yet another way to marginalize minorities.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
😂😂
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
New longevity hack just dropped
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Hey y'all--There are signs the flu season is off to an unusually early start. This means I would amend my typical "by Halloween" advice-*now* is a good time to get your vaccine if you haven't already. Protection takes about 2 weeks to build up. Stay well! www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Flu season could kick off ‘incredibly’ early — what scientists are watching
Cases in the Northern Hemisphere are cropping up weeks early, and they are dominated by a virus with a concerning mutation.
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
tenuretracker.info @tenuretracker.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Max Planck Gesellschaft (@maxplanck.de) is hiring: Postdoctoral Researcher in Medical Demography #postdoc #demography #humansciences
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Martin Enserink @martinenserink.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I asked plague scientists in France, the U.K. and the U.S. what they make of the death of a lab technician in Siberian. (Spoiler: There's absolutely no reason to worry about a plague epidemic.) www.science.org/content/arti... @science.org
science.org
Possible plague death at a Siberian lab baffles scientists
Much is unclear about the tragedy, but plague researchers say there is “zero” chance of an epidemic
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
What a lovely tribute to the life of demographer Reynolds Farley, who passed away in September. I didn't know him personally, but his impact on demography is profound.
psc.isr.umich.edu
Remembering Reynolds Farley: An Expert on Detroit, the Census, and America’s Racial Divide
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Reynolds (Ren) Farley, a sociologist and demographer who used Census data to illuminate the persistence of racial segregation in American cities, died on September 12, at 88. He was...
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
😂 Ok fair. I was referring to the less official "if we follow this trend forever we get to zero or infinity" flavor.
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Hampton Gaddy @hggaddy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
On 12 October, I'll be giving a seminar at @sociologyoxford.bsky.social. I'll be talking about missing data, Indigenous mortality during the 1918 flu, and the Alaskan census. Reach out if you want a hybrid link! www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/events/missi...
sociology.ox.ac.uk
Missing data and demographic structure obscure the inequality of Alaska Natives in the 1918 influenza pandemic
12.45pm - 2pm
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Population projections be like... #demography
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A treat to work w/ Ralph Lawton, @ermeara.bsky.social & Jonathan Skinner on this. This work made me realize I could probably spend the rest of my life just showing how changing age structure & other types of population composition affect associations we often take at face value. #demographyproblems
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
An FDA advisory panel voted in favor of a new blood test that screens for 50+ cancers. The idea is great, but the test has lots of false negatives & false positives, so use w/ caution, & it shouldn't replace conventional screening. Read more: jenndowd.substack.com/p/a-new-bloo... #medsky #episky
jenndowd.substack.com
A New Blood Test to Screen for Cancer: Hope or Hype?
As usual, it’s complicated.
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Alice Reid @amrcampop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Interested in a PhD in historical demography/population studies at @camunicampop.bsky.social, @camunigeography.bsky.social, Cambridge University? We have 3 suggested topics (see thread): contact me to discuss, or to suggest your own idea. Apply by early December for funded places.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Well, I haven't skimmed much beyond that! I think they do acknowledge healthy LE expansion, but not sure how it is consistent with this work that concludes the length of healthy life grandparenthood is expanding faster than delayed grandparenthood: read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
read.dukeupress.edu
Healthy Grandparenthood: How Long Is It, and How Has It Changed? | Demography | Duke University Press
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Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
BBC's Today programme is currently contemporary fertility decline to the Black Death, and blaming women for the "disaster" because they're refusing to have kids with men under 6 feet tall <screams in demographer>
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Demography is a fascinating subject and definitely deserves plentiful public discussion but *please* Radio 4 consult an actual demographer occasionally
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I was also pretty stunned by the wording of this NBER abstract 🫠. As @rcobooth.bsky.social lays out very nicely, there are many important questions to be explored here, but language, especially around reproductive choices, matters. substack.com/home/post/p-... #econsky #demography
substack.com
On prospective grandparents
(a tiresome thing from the internet this weekend, and some new stories)
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
3/ Never underestimate the power of age structure! This dynamic could affect other risk-factor mortality associations when age distributions of risk shift. Great to work w/ lead author Ralph Lawton, @ermeara.bsky.social & Jonathan Skinner. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar... #econsky #healthpolicy
academic.oup.com
Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time
Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2/ We find that growing smoking-mortality associations can largely be explained by the age composition of smokers shifting older, where mortality is higher. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar... #demography #episky #publichealth @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @oxpop.bsky.social @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social
academic.oup.com
Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time
Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1/ New in @pnasnexus.org: Demography strikes again! The mortality penalty associated w/ smoking has seemingly grown over time. Speculation centered on biological reasons, like more intensive smoking, or more negative selection of smokers on other characteristics. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
academic.oup.com
Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time
Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
And Laura Gimeno's paper on "Generational Health Drift" here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... @georgeploubidis.bsky.social @clscohorts.bsky.social
tandfonline.com
The generational health drift: A systematic review of evidence from the British birth cohort studies
Life expectancy in the UK improved dramatically during the twentieth century. Whether more recent generations are also living longer in good health has serious implications for healthcare systems a...
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2/ Read @leahrabrams.bsky.social, @octaviobramajo.bsky.social, @alysonvanraalte.bsky.social's cool paper here: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics | PNAS
US life expectancy remained essentially flat in the 2010s. This trend has occurred in the presence of advancing innovations in medical care, especi...
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Ha yes, I know, that was meant to represent our existing assumptions of everyone always looking younger/healthier
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
For decades, it's been a truism that younger generations are healthier & live longer (on average) than their parents' generation. Sadly, there are signs that our health may be "drifting" backward. Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography
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Gen Wojcik @genandgenes.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Important piece from the international perspective. Eugenics (w/ or w/o genetic tools) harms regardless of scientific validity. To add, this described shift is already happening (or in our domestic case, we never left this hellscape). It’s just a matter of degrees and it can always get worse.
“This shift aligns with the selective pronatalism that promotes not simply having children, but particular kinds of children. The result would be a move towards a society in which reproductive choices are judged by the anticipated characteristics of future offspring, and away from reproductive support based on equality and autonomy.”
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Corey Sparks @coreysparks1.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I’m recruiting a PhD student to come work with me at UT San Antonio. I have 3 years of support, so this would be good for someone with a masters degree. If you’re interested in working on Bayesian methods in demographic research, spatial analysis, and using AI tools for social science research
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The impact of an ageing population on pandemic risk in England doi.org/10.64898/202... @medrxivpreprint.bsky.social preprint co-authored by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social members @thomrawson.bsky.social, @dvaldenegro.bsky.social, @drjenndowd.bsky.social & @melindacmills.bsky.social
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Reposted by Jenn Dowd
Leslie Root @lesja.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
good news, everyone (h/t @drjenndowd.bsky.social)
Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026

At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millenia (sic). 

Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, Lawrence W. Amiot
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
With increased measles transmission, you may want to check whether a top-up is recommended: jenndowd.substack.com/p/measles-is...
jenndowd.substack.com
Measles is Back. Do you need another vaccine?
Maybe…if you can still remember your childhood best friend’s phone number by heart.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A virus that wipes out your existing immune memory.....yep, measles is THAT bad. jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-f... #episky #medsky #publichealth
jenndowd.substack.com
Don’t You Forget About Me(asles): The Virus That Erases Immune Memory
Measles vaccination protects your entire immune history.
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Those Nerdy Girls @thosenerdygirls.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
When should you get your flu shot? Anytime is good, but October may be best. This post is a collaboration with Data for Health @drjenndowd.bsky.social, Those Nerdy Girls, and the Dartmouth International Vaccine Initiative.
jenndowd.substack.com
When should you get your flu shot?
Anytime is good, but October may be best.
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Ewa Batyra @ewabatyra.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
One more week left to apply for a 3-year postdoc in Demography (deadline: Sept 16, 12:00 midday UK time). Join me at the Sociology Department in Oxford to study global fertility change as part of the DIVREP project! 👇
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Important new work finding that value change doesn't seem to be driving declining fertility in Europe. This counters arguments that declining fertility must be driven by shifting values when macroeconomic factors fail to explain changes. doi.org/10.1111/padr...
Value Change and the New Wave of Fertility Postponement in Western Europe
Oskar Lindström, Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli

Abstract
Since 2010, Western Europe has experienced a renewed wave of fertility postponement, contributing to declining fertility rates and rising childlessness. Although multiple explanations have been proposed, the role of ideational factors remains underexplored. This study examines whether broad changes in values help explain contemporary fertility postponement, drawing on the framework of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). We apply Schwartz's theory of basic human values to investigate trends in openness-to-change and conservation among women of childbearing age, assessing both aggregate changes over time and individual-level associations with having entered parenthood. Results show that these values are strongly associated with differences in entry into motherhood. However, the stability in value orientations over time suggests that values are unlikely to be a primary driver of the recent fertility postponement trend. Moreover, the relationship between values and entry into motherhood has remained unchanged, indicating that contemporary postponement extends across value orientations. Some regional heterogeneity emerges, with Southern Europe showing value shifts that may contribute to fertility postponement, though their overall influence appears limited. We conclude that broad shifts in SDT-related values are unlikely to explain the widespread fertility decline observed in Western Europe.
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A Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Come learn about reproductive process models, demographic data, and more in Boulder or online Nov. 11-13. Apply to join me, @lesja.bsky.social, and legend Jane Menken, with talks from others working in this area. Being wrong about birthrates is easy. But being right isn't *too* hard and we'll help!
docs.google.com
Reproductive Demography Workshop
Workshop dates: Wednesday, November 11th - Friday, November 13th, 2026 The Colorado Fertility Project and CUPC are pleased to announce a workshop for graduate students and early-career researchers wh...
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Roland Pierik @roleo.eurosky.social · 08/09/2026
The number of cases of cervical cancer reported in Scotland among women given the HPV vaccine at 12-13 years of age is now zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
No cervical cancer cases in fully HPV-vaccinated women in Scotland
A study published by Public Health Scotland finds that the HPV vaccine is "highly effective".
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
While you shouldn't overthink the timing (just get it!), getting a flu shot closer to Halloween may give you slightly better protection. #episky #medsky #publichealth #healthpolicy jenndowd.substack.com/p/when-shoul...
jenndowd.substack.com
When should you get your flu shot?
Anytime is good, but October may be best.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 06/09/2026
Ah, I remember this post by @alisongemmill.bsky.social now: (Yes I do go round and round all day, why do you ask)
linkedin.com
Are Gen Z women really becoming infertile?
A recent Federal Reserve working paper argues that rising “impaired fecundity” among younger women — especially Gen Z — may be contributing to declining U.S.
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Jonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Yes
sciencebasedmedicine.org
RFK Jr. is a Creepy Weirdo Obsessed with Teenagers’ Sperm
Kennedy’s sperm obsession combined with his desire for healthy "Trump babies" to serve in a military led by a White supremacist, whom he believes to be a divinely anointed, testosterone-filled über
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Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
"The links between Malthusianism and longtermism/effective altruism suggest that the latter will have just as damaging consequences as the reproductive injustices propelled by overpopulation panic" poppanic.substack.com/p/longtermis...
poppanic.substack.com
Longtermism and Effective Altruism
Today’s tech elite ideologies are generating underpopulation panic. How do they compare to Malthusianism?
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Great question- I don't know the details, but I think one strategy may be to offer a trial to age groups not already eligible for some reason in certain health systems. I know one trial is registered in Finland: euclinicaltrials.eu/ctis-public/...
euclinicaltrials.eu
Clinical Trials in the European Union - EMA
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Some updates on the shingles vaccine & dementia front-- a pleasure to collaborate w/ the amazing @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/does-the-s... #episky #medsky #publichealth #healthpolicy
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
Does the shingles vaccine prevent dementia?
It’s a little complicated
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I think you first put me on to this paper… I now recommend it often!!
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Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Nature has published a tribute to Dolly Parton 💔 www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Dolly Parton dies aged 80 – researchers celebrate her contributions to science
The country singer was an advocate for vaccines, public health, literacy and marginalized communities.
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Eric Turkheimer @ent3c.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Blog post: The Cofnas Manifesto: The social consequences of hereditarianism.
ericturkheimer.substack.com
The Cofnas Manifesto
The social consequences of hereditarianism
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Clara Jeffery @clarajeffery.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Gift link to tribute by Jad Abrumad, creator of Radiolab and Dolly Parton’s America www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | What Dolly Parton Told Me (Gift Article)
Trailing Dolly Parton around the world, I witnessed so many small moments in which she’d gracefully own her power without the slightest hint of fight.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A favorite in my YouTube rotation
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