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David Ubilava

@davidubilava.bsky.social
1.1K followers 807 following 264 posts

Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Sydney. Co-Editor-in-Chief of Food Policy. davidubilava.com

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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Forecasting lectures summarised in cartoons. 1. Introduction to forecasting
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
A non-Australian detected!
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Getting tenure has its perks. For example, once tenured you get enough free time to cook your own pizza!
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
As the new Science paper is making waves, let me repost this working paper on the very same issue that we had made available back in January. For what it's worth, technically, *we* were the first to document the effect that USAID suspension had on conflict in Africa.
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Journal of Peace Research @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
The 2025 Best Visualization Award has been awarded to Justin Hastings & @davidubilava.bsky.social (@sydney.edu.au) for their article entitled 'Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia'. Congratulations to the authors! 👏 📢 Read the full announcement: www.prio.org/journals/jpr...
prio.org
Best Visualization Award 2026 – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
The answer, to that question, is "probably no." Share of fertilizer in any food item is tiny, especially in high income countries. Farmers will bear the cost, no doubt. But much is going to depend on for how long this conflict lingers and, especially, if markets remain disrupted.
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The Conversation AUNZ @aunz.theconversation.com · 05/03/2026
If there’s a major shock for the fertiliser we use to grow wheat, do consumers soon see rising prices of bread, flour and beer?
theconversation.com
Fertiliser costs are soaring amid war in the Middle East. Will your grocery bill follow?
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economicsusyd.bsky.social @economicsusyd.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
It's not just oil affected, it's critical commodities such as fertiliser disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Farmers are impacted, but what about the consumer at the checkout with rising prices of bread, flour & beer? 🌾 Read more from A/Prof @davidubilava.bsky.social @economicsusyd.bsky.social
economicsusyd.bsky.social
economicsusyd.bsky.social
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
We are live. A packed two-day programme, a great set of speakers, and a wide range of topics. Our 3rd #SCoPE workshop at @sydney.edu.au has a lot to look forward to. Register and stop by if you are in town. sydneyscope.org
sydneyscope.org
3rd SCoPE Workshop
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Nice coverage--and replication--of our working paper "Aid, Interrupted" by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social in a revlcent @cgdev.org blog post. Here is the link to the current version of the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
It has been one year since the January 2025 suspension of USAID. In our new paper (with Annabelle Tan and @ashani.bsky.social), we treat this suspension as a natural experiment and examine how foreign aid withdrawal affects conflict dynamics. A thread: [1/7] papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Aid, Interrupted: Conflict Dynamics Following the USAID Suspension in Africa
Foreign aid withdrawal may put the stability of aid-dependent states at risk. Yet short-term conflict responses to donor-side aid disruptions remain poorly unde
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
ICYMI #econsky #polisky
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Call for papers: The Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop will be held at the University of Sydney on 31 March–1 April 2026. Please send papers (or extended abstracts) to the workshop email. Link to the call and previous programmes: sydneyscope.org
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Our paper on harvest-time changes in conflict, violence, and social unrest has been assigned to a volume and issue (makes it easier to cite). It offers some valuable insights, in my opinion. Luckily, it is also open access, so feel free to check it out: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
doi.org
Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia - Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava, 2025
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands o...
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average. This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9] davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...
davidubilava.com
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UNSW Economics Dept @unswecon.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Hi everyone! We're finally on bluesky! We heard this is now where all the cool people hang out, and even though we are just an economics department, we still would like to be cool.
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Andrea Cattaneo @andrcatt.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
1/ 🚀Big Update❗❗ Last year we published @NatCities, a systematic analysis of how countries are organized around multiple urban centres. That geospatial dataset is very complex. So we just launched the City-Region Explorer🔎... an easy to use platform for analysis. 🧵 #EconSky #Geography #GISChat
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
We have a superb lineup of 18 speakers representing 10 universities from across four countries. Really excited about this one!
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Gabriele Gratton @grattonecon.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Today at sydneyscope.org (organised by @davidubilava.bsky.social and @ashani.bsky.social). With @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social
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Journal of Peace Research @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Does conflict intensify during harvest in crop-producing regions?
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
1/ Does conflict intensify at harvest time in agricultural regions? Our new study explores this question in the context of Southeast Asia. Read the paper for the full story, or read this thread for tl;dr.
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Great to see this one out in the wilderness. I will do a thread in due course. Until then, enjoy the free access to the full text. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia - Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava, 2025
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands o...
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
"Dear passengers, we apologise for a slight delay. We will soon take off, once we sort out a minor technical issue."
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
If you're the kind of person who waits until the last minute, the wait is over. Submit your paper or extended abstract for the 2nd SCoPE workshop to be held in Sydney on 3-4 June by the end of the day.
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Ashani Amarasinghe @ashani.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Don’t forget to submit your papers to the 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop at the University of Sydney School of Economics! Deadline: 31 January More info: sydneyscope.org Join our mailing list: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... @davidubilava.bsky.social
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
What has development economics become? Marc Bellemare presents his view in his recent blog post (one of many in 2025, by the sounds of it—in and of itself, great news for applied economists). marcfbellemare.com/wordpress/14...
marcfbellemare.com
W(h)ither Development Economics?
(Over the last one or two years, I have explained to a number of colleagues and graduate students that I was not interested in doing development anymore. I am writing this post to avoid having the …
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Agnes Quisumbing @agnesq.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Introducing my wonderful workplace where I've been for almost (gasp!) 30 years! Follow us for research on #foodpolicy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
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Earth. Formerly known as Blue Planet. Beware of idiots.🦋🇪🇺 @earthfkablueplanet.eurosky.social · 05/12/2024
#Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict #Klima, Ernten und Konflikte nach der Ernte
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Alexandra Endres @alexandraendres.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Wie El Niño Konflikte um Ernten in Afrika beeinflusst. ⬇️ #climate #conflict
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Forgot to add the magic tag. Here goes: #EconSky
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The climate–conflict nexus is an active area of research. I examine how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks affect political violence in Africa. Headline result: Exposure to a positive ENSO shock (an El Niño event) reduces postharvest conflict. [1/13] doi.org/10.1111/ajae...
doi.org
Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict
I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Niño Southern Oscillation shocks during the crop-growing season affect ha...
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
My paper "Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict" is now forthcoming in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. A thread will follow. In the meantime, here is the link to the publication: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
One thing still missing on this platform is people treating it as an airline customer service portal for their complaints.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 25/11/2024
🗣️ Call for papers: 6th Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration, May 22–23 in Madrid Keynotes by the brilliant Leah Boustan & @deanyang.bsky.social Submissions due January 26th —> docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... #econconf #econsky
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Gina C. Pieters, PhD @ginapieters.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
258/ @davidubilava.bsky.social has put together a starter pack of researchers working on the economic causes and consequences of conflict. bsky.app/profile/davi...
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Created this starter pack of scholars who have worked on economic causes and consequences of conflict. The list is inevitably non-exhaustive, so please let me know if you would like to be added to it (or know of someone who should be on the list). go.bsky.app/PTSxCQf
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Tamar Haspel @tamarhaspel.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
You guys here's a starter pack of ag economists by @pablohutch.bsky.social go.bsky.app/LWvcnN8
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
This was mine:
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
A short guide on how to get follow-backs: - have a profile photo - have a proper name - have a brief description of who you are and what you do
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Our SCoPE workshop series now has its own dedicated website (where you can also access the previous, 1st workshop details). If you work in the area of civil conflict and political violence, or a topic relevant to these societal issues, consider submitting your paper or abstract. sydneyscope.org
sydneyscope.org
2nd SCoPE Workshop
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Emilia Tjernstrom @econemilia.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
🎉 Thrilled to share our paper, "Relaxing Multiple Agricultural Constraints at Scale" with @joshdeutschmann.bsky.social, Maya Duru, and Kim Siegal, just accepted at the Journal of Development Economics 🎉 Link to paper here: tinyurl.com/ddst2024 Thread 👇🏼 📉📈 (1/12)
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Is there a starter pack of the starter packs?
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Oh, wow, didn't realize the power of being included in a starter pack in getting a visibility (i.e. follows) on this site.
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
pre-musk twitter was the best of twitter-like social platforms and no other platform, including this, can compare to it.
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
Submit your work on social conflict and political violence, their causes and consequences, to this workshop, which will feature talks from @raschky.bsky.social, @csalemi.bsky.social, Pauline Grosjean, and Ore Koren. Submission deadline 31 Jan 2025.
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
📢Workshop Announcement The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025. dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 22/10/2024
how it started how it's going
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 21/10/2024
ICYMI
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David Ubilava @davidubilava.bsky.social · 21/10/2024
My slides on academic presenting -- some advice and suggestions for what they may be worth. davidubilava.com/misc/present...
davidubilava.com
Academic Presenting
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